Economy
Nigeria Hit with the Worst Fuel Scarcity Yet
Nigeria is the main oil producer in Africa and is currently the continent’s largest crude oil exporter. This status however holds no value for Nigerians who have now been accustomed to fuel scarcity in varying degrees being a constant challenge.
In 2024 alone, the country has been hit with two fuel scarcity crises. The first occurred from April to May when the fuel cost increased by 68.01% on a year-on-year basis from N842. 25 per litre in April 2023 to N1415. 06 per litre in April 2024. The second crisis is ongoing. It has seen the petrol price rise to N1,050 per liter in a matter of days from the average of N770.54 recorded in July 2024. This fuel scarcity is another addition to the ongoing cost of living crisis Africa’s largest economy is experiencing.
Nigeria’s Cost of Living Crisis Continues to Soar
During his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu announced an end to fuel subsidies in the country, citing that continuing subsidies were unsustainable and a drain on public finances. The president acknowledged in another address on June 12, 2023, that although halting the subsidies added a burden on the people of Nigeria it was crucial to the country’s economic survival. Over a year after this bold move by the government, most Nigerians are struggling to make ends meet sparking protests across the country.
NOIPolls, an independent pollster in West Africa disclosed in 2023 that 63% of adult Nigerians surveyed across the country desire to relocate to other countries. The lack of economic opportunities is the primary motivator for leaving Nigeria. As the “Japa”— a colloquial term for emigration— itch among Nigerians intensifies, the youth who can’t leave have sought to earn an income remotely working for foreign companies, gambling on international online casinos, and working multiple low-level jobs.
The prices of food, cooking gas, medication, and public transport have risen since President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. This rising cost of living has been a result of the naira’s poor performance against the dollar and the instability of the country’s economy. Nigerians have had to survive through high levels of inflation not experienced before in the country for three decades.
According to the World Food Programme, 26.5 million people across the country are projected to face acute hunger between June and August 2024. This is an almost 40% increase from the 18.6 million Nigerians recorded to have faced food insecurity at the end of 2023. This new fuel scarcity crisis has seen Nigerians make long queues at filling stations to access petrol, led to significant increases in transport fares, and resulted in losses for businesses that rely on fuel to power them.
NNPC Explains Cause of Current Fuel Scarcity
In response to rising concerns about fuel scarcity in the country, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) through Dapo Segun, the Vice President, attributed the ongoing fuel scarcity to the impact of the recent heavy rains, lightning, and thunderstorms across the country. Mr Segun explained that the rains had caused saltation in the Estragos channel making navigation difficult and thus hindering the transportation of petroleum products across the country. Additionally, Seun reported that fuel discharge from both onshore and tankers had been suspended occasionally due to lightning and thunderstorms. These three natural extreme weather conditions have made distributing petroleum products across the country challenging.
As the NNPCL vows to resolve the fuel scarcity crisis soon, Nigerians are looking to two other refineries that were set to begin operations to ease the cost of fuel burden. The Dangote Refinery is expected to begin selling petrol in Nigeria by the end of this August. The chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Danknote, who had committed to this milestone is positive that his company will meet the target. Additionally, the Port Harcourt refinery is expected to be operational and supplying petroleum products across the country by September 2024 as assured by the group chief executive officer of the NNPCL, Mele Kyari. This will be the third time the refinery’s operational month has been moved this year following its mechanical completion in December 2023.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), on the other hand, has accused the NNPCL of actively contributing to fuel scarcity by failing to provide petroleum products to its members even after payment. IPMAN disclosed that even though payment to the state oil company was made three months ago members have been forced to purchase petroleum products from private depots whose prices are significantly higher. IPMAN is now calling on the government and other key stakeholders in the oil industry to intervene in the situation to lessen these hardships.
Citizens of Africa’s largest crude oil producer and exporter are now no longer surprised by fuel scarcity in their cities. While many try to find ways to survive under the new economic hardships, others opt to leave the country in search of greener pastures. It is evident that Africa’s largest economy is on the brink of collapsing should the government not turn around the economic situation soon.
Economy
Naira Crashes to N1,464/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.
In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.
The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.
The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.
President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.
Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Crude Oil Prices Climb as US Blocks Venezuelan Tankers
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices edged up on possible disruptions from a US blockade of Venezuelan tankers as the market waits for news about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent futures rose 65 cents or 1.1 per cent to $60.47 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 51 cents or 0.9 per cent to $56.66 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI were down about 1 per cent this week after both crude benchmarks fell about 4 per cent last week.
US President Donald Trump said he was leaving the possibility of war with Venezuela on the table, noting that there would be additional seizures of oil tankers near Venezuelan waters after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week.
The American President this week ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in the US’ latest move to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government, targeting its main source of income. The pressure campaign on President Maduro has included a ramped-up military presence in the region and more than two dozen military strikes on vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, which have killed at least 90 people.
President Trump has also previously said that US land strikes on the South American country will soon start.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said that the US is not concerned about an escalation with Russia when it comes to Venezuela, as the Trump administration builds up military forces in the Caribbean.
This development comes as President Trump seeks an end to the unending war between Ukraine and Russia that is heading towards its fourth year.
European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to loan 90 billion Euros to Ukraine to fund its defense against Russia for the next two years as Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no compromise on Friday on his terms for ending the war in Ukraine and accused the European Union of attempting “daylight robbery” of Russian assets.
Ukraine, meanwhile, struck a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time.
Earlier this week, the US and Ukraine both signaled progress in negotiations about a peace agreement during talks in German capital city of Berlin. The US is now reportedly offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pledge.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
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