Economy
Nigeria Hit with the Worst Fuel Scarcity Yet
Nigeria is the main oil producer in Africa and is currently the continent’s largest crude oil exporter. This status however holds no value for Nigerians who have now been accustomed to fuel scarcity in varying degrees being a constant challenge.
In 2024 alone, the country has been hit with two fuel scarcity crises. The first occurred from April to May when the fuel cost increased by 68.01% on a year-on-year basis from N842. 25 per litre in April 2023 to N1415. 06 per litre in April 2024. The second crisis is ongoing. It has seen the petrol price rise to N1,050 per liter in a matter of days from the average of N770.54 recorded in July 2024. This fuel scarcity is another addition to the ongoing cost of living crisis Africa’s largest economy is experiencing.
Nigeria’s Cost of Living Crisis Continues to Soar
During his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu announced an end to fuel subsidies in the country, citing that continuing subsidies were unsustainable and a drain on public finances. The president acknowledged in another address on June 12, 2023, that although halting the subsidies added a burden on the people of Nigeria it was crucial to the country’s economic survival. Over a year after this bold move by the government, most Nigerians are struggling to make ends meet sparking protests across the country.
NOIPolls, an independent pollster in West Africa disclosed in 2023 that 63% of adult Nigerians surveyed across the country desire to relocate to other countries. The lack of economic opportunities is the primary motivator for leaving Nigeria. As the “Japa”— a colloquial term for emigration— itch among Nigerians intensifies, the youth who can’t leave have sought to earn an income remotely working for foreign companies, gambling on international online casinos, and working multiple low-level jobs.
The prices of food, cooking gas, medication, and public transport have risen since President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. This rising cost of living has been a result of the naira’s poor performance against the dollar and the instability of the country’s economy. Nigerians have had to survive through high levels of inflation not experienced before in the country for three decades.
According to the World Food Programme, 26.5 million people across the country are projected to face acute hunger between June and August 2024. This is an almost 40% increase from the 18.6 million Nigerians recorded to have faced food insecurity at the end of 2023. This new fuel scarcity crisis has seen Nigerians make long queues at filling stations to access petrol, led to significant increases in transport fares, and resulted in losses for businesses that rely on fuel to power them.
NNPC Explains Cause of Current Fuel Scarcity
In response to rising concerns about fuel scarcity in the country, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) through Dapo Segun, the Vice President, attributed the ongoing fuel scarcity to the impact of the recent heavy rains, lightning, and thunderstorms across the country. Mr Segun explained that the rains had caused saltation in the Estragos channel making navigation difficult and thus hindering the transportation of petroleum products across the country. Additionally, Seun reported that fuel discharge from both onshore and tankers had been suspended occasionally due to lightning and thunderstorms. These three natural extreme weather conditions have made distributing petroleum products across the country challenging.
As the NNPCL vows to resolve the fuel scarcity crisis soon, Nigerians are looking to two other refineries that were set to begin operations to ease the cost of fuel burden. The Dangote Refinery is expected to begin selling petrol in Nigeria by the end of this August. The chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Danknote, who had committed to this milestone is positive that his company will meet the target. Additionally, the Port Harcourt refinery is expected to be operational and supplying petroleum products across the country by September 2024 as assured by the group chief executive officer of the NNPCL, Mele Kyari. This will be the third time the refinery’s operational month has been moved this year following its mechanical completion in December 2023.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), on the other hand, has accused the NNPCL of actively contributing to fuel scarcity by failing to provide petroleum products to its members even after payment. IPMAN disclosed that even though payment to the state oil company was made three months ago members have been forced to purchase petroleum products from private depots whose prices are significantly higher. IPMAN is now calling on the government and other key stakeholders in the oil industry to intervene in the situation to lessen these hardships.
Citizens of Africa’s largest crude oil producer and exporter are now no longer surprised by fuel scarcity in their cities. While many try to find ways to survive under the new economic hardships, others opt to leave the country in search of greener pastures. It is evident that Africa’s largest economy is on the brink of collapsing should the government not turn around the economic situation soon.
Economy
Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.
The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.
The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.
The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.
The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.
Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.
The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.
“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.
“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.
The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.
“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.
“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”
Economy
Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.
President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.
On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.
Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.
“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.
“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.
He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.
“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.
The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.
This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.
The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.
He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
Economy
Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on
CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.
The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.
This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”
Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.
The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”
Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.
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