Economy
Nigeria May Borrow More, Expand Tax Net to Achieve Short-Term Growth—KPMG
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
An audit, tax and advisory firm, KPMG Nigeria, has noted that the Nigerian government may have to borrow more or increase its tax net to achieve its short-term growth strategy.
The company said this in its latest Macroeconomic Snapshot, which looked into the 6 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth target set by President Bola Tinubu in the next four years.
KPMG Nigeria submitted that this goal is unachievable, going by some parameters currently on the group.
“The president, during his inauguration speech, had set a target to increase the GDP growth rate of the country by 6 per cent on average in the next four years through budgetary reforms aimed at stimulating the real sector of the economy. However, we are of the opinion that this might be difficult to attain in four years,” the firm said in the report.
It stressed that, “While we expect stronger year-on-year growth over the next few years, we are of the opinion that there is very limited space to attain a 6 per cent average real growth rate in 4 years or an increase in real GDP by N17 trillion.
“We are of the opinion that an average GDP growth rate of between 4 per cent to 4.5 per cent at best is more feasible in the next four years. Even this will require the country to get its policies right and keep consistent faith with macroeconomic reforms.”
KPMG Nigeria said, “The government’s major short-term growth strategy will be to boost government investment and government expenditure (accounting for about 15 per cent of GDP combined) to attempt to unlock the potential of the private sector and stimulate domestic consumption and exports.
“It may, therefore, have no option than to borrow more and/or increase tax collection given the low fiscal space and despite the already high debt and debt service environment of above 50 per cent even after subsidy removal.
“This may, however, constrain GDP growth in the short term by squeezing households and businesses; this further indicates that 6 per cent on average in 4 years is unlikely.”
It disclosed that Nigeria’s growth since 2019 has been fragile, not growing fast enough to contain population growth (2.6 per cent to 3.0 per cent) and needs to be less inequitable (with a Gini coefficient of 35.1 per cent in 2022).
“Accordingly, per capita income has contracted by over 40 per cent since 2015.”
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The trading licence of Monument Securities and Finance Limited has been revoked by the regulatory arm of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc.
Known as NGX Regulations Limited (NGX Regco), the regulator said it took back the operating licence of the organisation after it shut down its operations.
The revocation of the licence was approved by Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC) at its meeting held on September 24, 2025, a notice from the signed by the Head of Market Regulations at the agency, Chinedu Akamaka, said.
“This is to formally notify all trading license holders that the board of NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo) has approved the decision of the Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC)” in respect of Monument Securities and Finance Limited, a part of the disclosure stated.
Monument Securities and Finance Limited was earlier licensed to assist clients with the trading of stocks in the Nigerian capital market.
However, with the latest development, the firm is no longer authorised to perform this function.
Economy
NEITI Advocates Fiscal Discipline, Transparency as FG, States, LGs Get N6trn in Three Months
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has called for fiscal discipline and transparency as data showed that federal government, states, and local governments shared a whopping N6 trillion Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements in the third quarter of last year.
In its analysis of the FAAC Q3 2025 allocation, the body revealed that the federal government received N2.19 trillion, states received N1.97 trillion, and local governments received N1.45 trillion.
According to a statement by the Director of Communication and Stakeholders Management at NEITI, Mrs Obiageli Onuorah, the allocation indicated a historic rise in federation account receipts and distributions, explaining that year-on-year quarterly FAAC allocations in 2025 grew by 55.6 per cent compared with Q3 of 2024 while it more than doubling allocations over two years.
The report contained in the agency’s Quarterly Review noted that the N6 trillion included 13 per cent payments to derivative states. It also showed that statutory revenues accounted for 62 per cent of shared receipts, while Value Added Tax (VAT) was 34 per cent, and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) and augmentation from non-oil excess revenue each accounted for 2 per cent, respectively.
The distribution to the 36 states comprised revenues from statutory sources, VAT, EMTL, and ecological funds. States also received additional N100 billion as augmentation from the non-oil excess revenue account.
The Executive Secretary of NEITI, Mr Sarkin Adar, called on the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) FAAC, the National Economic Council (NEC), the National Assembly, and state governments to act on the recommendations to strengthen transparency, accountability, and long-term fiscal sustainability.
“Though the Quarter 3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, NEITI reiterates that the data presents an opportunity to the government to institutionalise prudent fiscal practices that will protect the gains that have been recorded so far in growing revenue and reduce vulnerability to commodity shocks.
“The Q3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, but windfalls must be managed with discipline. Greater transparency, realistic budgeting, and stronger stabilisation mechanisms will ensure these resources deliver durable benefits for all Nigerians,” Mr Adar said.
NEITI urged the government at all levels to ensure the growth of Nigeria’s sovereign wealth and stabilisation capacity, by committing to regular transfers to the Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Fund and other related stabilisation mechanisms in line with the fiscal responsibility frameworks.
It further advised governments at all levels to adopt realistic budget benchmarks by setting more conservative and achievable crude oil production and price assumptions in the budget to reduce implementation gaps, deficit, and debt metrics.
This, it said, is in addition to accelerating revenue diversification by prioritising reforms that would attract investments into the mining sector, expedite legislation to modernise the Mineral and Mining Act, support reforms in the downstream petroleum sector, as well as the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to expand domestic refining and value addition.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria has been projected to record an economic growth rate of 4.4 per cent in 2026 by the World Bank Group, higher than the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the global lender also said the growth for next year for Nigeria is 4.4 per cent rather than the 3.8 per cent earlier projected.
As for the sub-Saharan African region, the economy is forecast to move up to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.
It stressed that growth in developing economies should slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before rising to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
In the report, it also noted that growth is expected to jump in low-income countries by 5.6 per cent due to stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
As for the world economy, the bank said it is now 2.6 per cent and not 2.4 per cent due to growing resilience despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” a part of the report stated.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” it noted.
World Bank also said, “Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
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