Economy
Nigerian Economy Exits Recession: Implications and Policy Options
After five consecutive quarters of contraction in the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Nigerian economy exited the first recession in over two decades. The Q2, 2017 figures that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Tuesday, September 05, 2017 shows that the GDP recorded a growth rate of 0.55%. The growth in the GDP was mainly due to the growth recorded in Agriculture, Financial and Insurance, Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply, and Mining and Quarrying sectors of the Nigerian economy.
The Oil sector, which grew by 1.64% in Q2, 2017, recorded the first growth since Q4, 2015. The growth in the Non-Oil sector at 0.45% in Q2 2017 decelerated from a growth rate of 0.72% recorded in Q1, 2017.
The Nigerian economy entered into a recession in Q2 2016 following two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. The recovery in crude oil production and price and the introduction of the Investors’ and Exporters’ foreign exchange window, which increased the supply of foreign exchange to end users, helped to pull the economy out of recession.
We highlight policy options to sustain the growth and to ensure that the growth translates to development.
An analysis of the GDP by sectoral size shows that Agriculture, Trade, and Information and Communication are the three largest sectors of the economy and they contributed 22.97%, 17.1% and 12.39% respectively in Q2, 2017. Trade and Information and Communication contracted by 1.62% and 1.15% respectively. Although Agriculture grew by 3.01% in Q2, 2017, it recorded the lowest growth rate since Q1, 2015. The weak purchasing power in the country occasioned by high unemployment and inflation rates was the main driver of the contraction in the Trade sector.
The performance of the Information and Communication sector was due to the high cost of running communication equipment and services occasioned by the devaluation of the Naira in the face of a fixed tariff regime.
Meanwhile, the series of attacks in the crop producing regions in the country particularly in the Middle-Belt and the North, and the poor infrastructure in transportation and storage facilities led to the deceleration in the growth rate of the Agriculture sector.
The Real Estate sector, which contributed 7.22% to the GDP, also contracted by 3.53% in Q2, 2017 albeit at a much lower rate when compared with the contraction of 5.27% recorded in Q2, 2016.
The Manufacturing sector, which contributed 9.38% to the GDP, recorded a weak growth of 0.64% from a growth of 1.36% recorded in Q1, 2017. This was however a recovery compared with the contraction of 3.36% recorded in Q2, 2016.
There is the need for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to find a lasting solution to the attacks on farm lands in Nigeria in order to increase production. There should also be incentives in the form of tax reliefs and favourable land acquisition laws for the agro-allied industry in order to boost agriculture.
Additionally, there should be more focus on agricultural training and research institutes in the country to increase farm yields.
Concrete steps should be taken to involve the private sector in the provision of transport and storage facilities to reduce waste and give farm produce easy access to markets.
Government may also consider tax holidays and reduction to companies that make use of local agricultural raw materials in their production process. This will increase both human and material employment of local resources in Nigeria.
It is also important to allow for an adjustment in the communication tariff to boost investments and improve facility maintenance. In order to support the growth of real estate, government at all levels should partner with real estate developers, both local and foreign, to support the development of mass housing projects for low and middle income earners.
These housing units should be made available through long-term financing structures, which should be guaranteed by the government. This would provide both direct and indirect employment opportunities to Nigerians in real estate, construction and manufacturing sectors. In addition, it will help to protect the revenue of the government against the volatility in the oil industry and ultimately guarantee sustainable economic growth and development.
Economy
Tinubu, Dangote Meet Over Oil Market Volatility as Petrol Hits N1,400
By Adedapo Adesanya
The president of the Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, met with President Bola Tinubu on Monday to discuss and address concerns about the growing volatility in the global oil market and its impact on Nigerians.
Petrol prices have jumped to as high as N1,400 per litre amid the continuous rise in prices of crude oil in the global market as a result of the Middle East war. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel due to compounding supply constraints, though it closed below the mark yesterday.
Mr Dangote, whose company controlled about 60 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic supply pre-war, speaking after the meeting, said that although Nigeria is not directly involved in the war, the ripple effects of global oil price fluctuations would inevitably be felt.
“It means quite a lot. We don’t have much to do with it, but I know the world is a global village. And it definitely will affect us, unfortunately, but we pray this situation will be sorted out,” he said after his visit to President Tinubu in Lagos yesterday.
He warned that a prolonged crisis could further destabilise economies, particularly in Africa, where fiscal buffers are limited, and debt pressures remain high.
“If it doesn’t de-escalate, we’ll end up paying high prices, like what I said earlier on CNN. Africa is very busy paying debt, and putting this again on top of us is going to add a lot of hardship on people, on the government, on the people, on everybody, for something that we have no involvement in.”
He stressed that energy costs are central to nearly all sectors of the economy, meaning sustained increases would have widespread and cascading effects on livelihoods and production.
He explained that governments could face mounting fiscal strain as subsidies rise and revenues fluctuate under unstable global oil market conditions.
Mr Dangote added that Africa’s rising debt burden could worsen under prolonged instability, further limiting fiscal space and weakening economic resilience.
“Africa is already grappling with debt, and additional shocks will only compound hardship for governments and the people,” he said.
He said escalating energy costs would disrupt nearly every sector, including small enterprises, manufacturing chains, logistics operations and household consumption patterns.
The business mogul noted that some countries were already adopting coping strategies such as reduced workdays, energy rationing and remote working arrangements.
Mr Dangote said such measures, while necessary, could reduce productivity, slow economic output and affect livelihoods, particularly among vulnerable populations.
He urged global leaders to prioritise de-escalation, stressing that many Africans rely on daily earnings and remain highly exposed to economic shocks.
Economy
SEC, NYSC to Create CDS Group on Investment Education for Corps Members
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A Community Development Service (CDS) group focused on investment education for corps members is to be established by the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) in partnership with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Both organisations recently sealed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for this new initiative, which will promote sound investment habits among Nigerian youths, equip corps members with essential financial knowledge and help them avoid fraudulent schemes.
Under the agreement, the NYSC and SEC will work together on joint awareness campaigns, utilising various channels and platforms, including social media, traditional media, and community outreach, to disseminate information on safe investment and expose fraudulent schemes.
They will also agree on mechanisms for sharing relevant data and reporting on the progress and impact of the collaborative initiatives.
Specifically, the capital market regulator will develop and provide relevant and up-to-date educational content, materials, and training modules on capital market operations, safe investment practices, and the identification and avoidance of Ponzi schemes.
The agency will also be responsible for the content, resources and funding of training sessions for selected corps members and NYSC supervisors who will serve as trainers and facilitators in their respective communities.
On its part, the NYSC will facilitate the integration of anti-Ponzi scheme education into its Education and Enlightenment CDS programme, which could be through dedicated sessions, workshops, or awareness campaigns during orientation camps and throughout the service year.
The Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, expressed satisfaction with the collaboration, saying it will promote financial literacy and sound investment habits among young Nigerians.
His counterpart at the NYSC, Brig-Gen Olakunle Nafiu, lauded the initiative, stressing that it will help in enhancing public awareness campaigns against illegal financial schemes across all Local Government Areas in the country, among other objectives.
Economy
Unlisted Securities Exchange Opens Week 0.84% Bullish
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange opened the week on a positive note after it appreciated by 0.84 per cent on Monday, March 23.
Trading activity returned yesterday after a two-day break last Thursday and Friday to celebrate the end of Ramadan.
The market capitalisation was up by N20.68 billion to N2.482 trillion from N2.461 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 34.68 points to 4,149.38 points from 4,114.75 points.
The bourse was bullish amid a 1.34 per cent decline in the share price of Geo-Fluids Plc at the close of transactions. The loss was offset by the 3.45 per cent surge in the value of FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc.
A look at the trading data indicated that the activity was weaker yesterday, as the trading volume, value, and number of deals all tumbled.
There was a 99.9 per cent slip in the volume of securities to 412,260 units from the 400.8 million units recorded in the preceding session. The value of securities fell by 99.4 per cent to N7.37 million from N1.2 billion, and the number of deals went down by 31.9 per cent to 32 deals from 47 deals.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.7 million units sold for N2.4 billion. Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc followed with 400 million units valued at N1.2 billion, and Okitipupa Plc occupied the third spot with 6.4 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
Resourcery Plc closed the trading session as the most active by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 131.1 million units exchanged for N505.6 million.
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