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Nigerian Palm Oil Sector: Waxing Stronger Under Policy Cover

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By ARM Securities

In contrast to the macro-induced sell-offs across the broad equities market in 2016, palm oil producers had a stellar year as the policy changes in response to the FX pressures handed the sector a lifeline.

Specifically, CBN’s proscription of FX access for palm oil imports changed sector dynamics as it provided a competitive edge in pricing for local producers over CPO importers.

Accordingly, the sector reported stronger revenues and higher margins in the period which fuelled the positive price performance over 2016 (vs NSEASI: -6%). In this report, we outline our views regarding the drivers of 2016 performance and set out our views ahead of FY 16E earnings releases.

In the aftermath of CBN policy pronouncement regarding CPO imports, domestic prices surged 144 percent over 2016 to N661.4/kg as importers who account for 29% of local supply cutback on imports.

While the upsurge in CPO prices drove sector revenue to a record high of N22.8 billion, its impact was more pronounced on operating margin (+12pps YoY to 53%) as the largely domestic sourcing of raw materials and labour kept cost (COGS and OPEX) in check.

Another positive policy handout for the sector was CBN’s renewed supply of concessionary loans, which given already weak naira outlook drove coverage companies to change the currency character of their debt.

FCY borrowings as a share of total debt shrank 5pps YoY to 13.8% while total borrowing cost contracted 7% YoY over the review period.

Overall, reflecting robust top-line gains and financial efficiency, we estimate that core earnings should climb 108% YoY to a record high of N8.1 billion in FY 16.

That said, despite our strong view on earnings, we expect dividend payout ratio to come below trend levels as management of coverage companies guides to capacity expansion plans from retained earnings.

We project Presco’s 2016E DPS of N2.02 to be higher than that of its domestic peer, Okomu (N1.77).

Notwithstanding strong YTD price performance, we believe current pricing is yet to fully reflect the stellar earnings performance reported so far, but more importantly, the robust earnings outlook. Particularly, at 9.1x, the sector’s mean P/E remains cheap relative to trend (3 year: 11.4x, 5 year: 11.3x) and Bloomberg Africa peers (10.1x). Across our coverage, we prefer Presco due to its larger oil palm plantation (2015 mature area hectares of 10,949 vs. 8,671 for Okomu) and homogenous product mix, which makes it a greater beneficiary of improved conditions in the domestic CPO market.

Accordingly, our FVE embodies a 46 percent upside from current pricing for Presco (N68.84) relative to 40 percent for Okomu (N67.43) and we have a BUY rating for both companies.

Full report here: https://secure.arm.com.ng/research/EquityReports/Nigerian%20Palm%20Oil%20Sector%20-%20Waxing%20strong%20under%20policy%20cover.pdf

“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited”;

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

NGX Key Performance Indicators Rebound 0.04%

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NGX RegCo

By Dipo Olowookere

About 0.04 per cent was recovered on Friday from the loss recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the previous due to profit-taking.

Yesterday, investors were in the market with renewed vigour, mopping up stocks trading at relatively cheaper prices.

According to data, the insurance counter gained 0.41 per cent, the banking sector appreciated by 0.38 per cent, and the consumer goods index grew by 0.14 per cent.

The gains achieved by these three sectors were enough to lift Customs Street at the close of business despite the 0.26 per cent decline printed by the industrial goods segment and the 0.14 per cent loss suffered by the energy industry. The commodity counter was flat during the session.

A total of 43 equities gained weight on the last trading day of this week, while 26 equities shed weight, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

Red Star Express increased its share price by 10.00 per cent to N13.20, NCR Nigeria grew by 9.97 per cent to N128.55, SCOA Nigeria inflated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, Omatek appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N1.77, and Deap Capital expanded by 9.85 per cent to N4.46.

On the flip side, McNichols decreased by 8.81 per cent to N6.00, Legend Internet crumbled by 7.56 per cent to N5.50, Cornerstone Insurance crashed by 6.48 per cent to N6.35, C&I Leasing contracted by 6.29 per cent to N8.20, and Austin Laz slipped by 5.78 per cent to N3.75.

Yesterday, 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion were transacted in 48,023 deals versus the 1.0 billion shares worth N31.6 billion executed in 51,227 deals in the preceding day, implying a shrink in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.01 per cent, 47.15 per cent, and 6.26 per cent apiece.

Zenith Bank was the most active for the day with 54.6 million stocks sold for N3.8 billion, Jaiz Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N359.4 million, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 37.7 million units valued at N39.2 million, Access Holdings exchanged 30.5 million units for N699.2 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 27.2 million units worth N68.3 million.

When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 72.21 points to 166,129.50 points from 166,057.29 points and the market capitalisation gained N31 billion to N106.354 trillion from N106.323 trillion.

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Economy

Naira Trades N1,417/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market

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naira street value

By Adedapo Adesanya

It was a positive ending for the Naira this week after it further appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 16 by N1.33 or 0.09 per cent to sell for N1,417.95/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,419.28/$1.

The domestic currency also gained N2.41 against the Euro in the official market to close at N1,647.51/€1 versus the preceding session’s closing price of N1,649.92/€1, however, it suffered a N7.97 loss against the Pound Sterling in the same market window to trade at N1,901.32/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,893.35/£1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to quote at N1,427/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,425/$1, but strengthened against the greenback at the black market yesterday by N5 to settle at N1,485/$1 versus the N1,490/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.

Improved supply conditions helped keep the market within range as exporters’ and importers’ inflows in addition to non-bank corporate supply enhanced liquidity as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) made no visible intervention.

Stronger external inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and improving current account dynamics, continue to align with structural support in the wider economy.

Nigeria has seen projections of a stronger economic or gross domestic product (GDP) growth and lower inflation in 2026, with these forecasts citing improved macroeconomic fundamentals and reform impacts.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was mixed following selloff in precious metals and lower US stocks appeared to be denting crypto sentiment.

Gold and silver, both of which also enjoyed big rallies earlier this week, tumbled 1.2 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively while key US stock indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average — all reversed from early gains to modest losses in Friday trade.

Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 2.2 per cent to $0.1370, Ripple (XRP) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.7 per cent to $3,228.56, and Bitcoin (BTC) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $95,086.80.

Conversely, Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $74.48, Solana (SOL) rose by 0.4 per cent to $143.70, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 0.2 per cent to $0.3942, and Binance Coin (BNB) increased by 0.1 per cent to $935.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Prices Rise Amid Lingering Iran Worries

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oil prices cancel iran deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled higher amid lingering worries about a possible US military strike against Iran, a decision that may still occur over the weekend.

Brent crude settled at $64.13 a barrel after going up by 37 cents or 0.58 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $59.44 a barrel after it gained 25 cents or 0.42 per cent.

The US Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf next week after operating in the South China Sea.

Market analysts noted that it doesn’t seem likely anything will happen soon. However, the weekends have become the perfect time for actions so as not offset the markets.

The market had risen after protests flared up in Iran and US President Donald Trump signalled the potential for military strikes, but lost over 4 per cent on Thursday as the American president said Iran’s crackdown on the protesters was easing, allaying concerns of possible military action that could disrupt oil supplies.

Iran produces approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for roughly 4 per cent of global crude production, so it was not a coincidence that markets rallied sharply through Tuesday and Wednesday as President Trump canceled meetings with Iranian officials and posted that “help is on its way” to Iranian protesters, raising fears of potential US military strikes that sent prices surging toward multi-month highs.

Weighing against those fears are potential supply increases from Venezuela.

The Trump administration is exploring plans to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for US medium sour barrels that can actually go straight into Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns, since not all all oil belongs in the reserve.

According to Reuters, the Department of Energy is considering moving Venezuelan heavy crude into commercial storage at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, while US producers deliver medium sour crude into the SPR in exchange.

Analysts expect higher supply this year, potentially creating a ceiling for the geopolitical risk premium on prices.

Some investors covered short positions ahead of the three-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend in the US.

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