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Economy

Nigerian Palm Oil Sector: Waxing Stronger Under Policy Cover

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By ARM Securities

In contrast to the macro-induced sell-offs across the broad equities market in 2016, palm oil producers had a stellar year as the policy changes in response to the FX pressures handed the sector a lifeline.

Specifically, CBN’s proscription of FX access for palm oil imports changed sector dynamics as it provided a competitive edge in pricing for local producers over CPO importers.

Accordingly, the sector reported stronger revenues and higher margins in the period which fuelled the positive price performance over 2016 (vs NSEASI: -6%). In this report, we outline our views regarding the drivers of 2016 performance and set out our views ahead of FY 16E earnings releases.

In the aftermath of CBN policy pronouncement regarding CPO imports, domestic prices surged 144 percent over 2016 to N661.4/kg as importers who account for 29% of local supply cutback on imports.

While the upsurge in CPO prices drove sector revenue to a record high of N22.8 billion, its impact was more pronounced on operating margin (+12pps YoY to 53%) as the largely domestic sourcing of raw materials and labour kept cost (COGS and OPEX) in check.

Another positive policy handout for the sector was CBN’s renewed supply of concessionary loans, which given already weak naira outlook drove coverage companies to change the currency character of their debt.

FCY borrowings as a share of total debt shrank 5pps YoY to 13.8% while total borrowing cost contracted 7% YoY over the review period.

Overall, reflecting robust top-line gains and financial efficiency, we estimate that core earnings should climb 108% YoY to a record high of N8.1 billion in FY 16.

That said, despite our strong view on earnings, we expect dividend payout ratio to come below trend levels as management of coverage companies guides to capacity expansion plans from retained earnings.

We project Presco’s 2016E DPS of N2.02 to be higher than that of its domestic peer, Okomu (N1.77).

Notwithstanding strong YTD price performance, we believe current pricing is yet to fully reflect the stellar earnings performance reported so far, but more importantly, the robust earnings outlook. Particularly, at 9.1x, the sector’s mean P/E remains cheap relative to trend (3 year: 11.4x, 5 year: 11.3x) and Bloomberg Africa peers (10.1x). Across our coverage, we prefer Presco due to its larger oil palm plantation (2015 mature area hectares of 10,949 vs. 8,671 for Okomu) and homogenous product mix, which makes it a greater beneficiary of improved conditions in the domestic CPO market.

Accordingly, our FVE embodies a 46 percent upside from current pricing for Presco (N68.84) relative to 40 percent for Okomu (N67.43) and we have a BUY rating for both companies.

Full report here: https://secure.arm.com.ng/research/EquityReports/Nigerian%20Palm%20Oil%20Sector%20-%20Waxing%20strong%20under%20policy%20cover.pdf

“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited”;

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

NBA Demands Suspension of Controversial Tax Laws

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four tax reform bills

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government has been asked by the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) to suspend the implementation of the controversial tax laws.

In a reaction to the tax reform acts, the president of the group, Mr Afam Osigwe (SAN), the suspension of the laws would allow for a proper investigation into allegations of alterations in the gazetted and harmonised copies.

A member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, alleged that some parts of the laws passed by the parliament were different from the gazetted copy.

To address the issues raised, the NBA said it is “imperative that a comprehensive, open, and transparent investigation be conducted to clarify the circumstances surrounding the enactment of the laws and to restore public confidence in the legislative process.”

“Until these issues are fully examined and resolved, all plans for the implementation of the Tax Reform Acts should be immediately suspended,” the association declared.

It noted that the controversies “raise grave concerns about the integrity, transparency, and credibility of Nigeria’s legislative process.”

“These developments strike at the very heart of constitutional governance and call into question the procedural sanctity that must attend lawmaking in a democratic society,” it noted.

“Legal and policy uncertainty of this magnitude has far-reaching consequences. It unsettles the business environment, erodes investor confidence, and creates unpredictability for individuals, businesses, and institutions required to comply with the law. Such uncertainty is inimical to economic stability and should have no place in a system governed by the rule of law.

“Nigeria’s constitutional democracy demands that laws, especially those with profound economic and social implications, emerge from processes that are transparent, accountable, and beyond reproach. Anything short of this undermines public trust and weakens the foundation upon which lawful governance rests.

“We therefore call on all relevant authorities to act swiftly and responsibly in addressing this controversy, in the overriding interest of constitutional order, economic stability, and the preservation of the rule of law,” the organisation stated.

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Economy

MRS Oil, Two Others Raise NASD Bourse Higher by 0.52%

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MRS Oil voluntary delisting

By Adedapo Adesanya

Demand for hot stocks, including MRS Oil Plc, buoyed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.52 per cent on Tuesday, December 23.

The energy company was one of the three price gainers for the session as it chalked up N19.69 to sell at N216.59 per share versus the previous day’s value of N196.90 per share.

Further, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.95 to close at N56.75 per unit versus N53.80 per unit and Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 84 Kobo to N9.29 per share from Monday’s N8.45 per share.

Consequently, the market capitalisation went up by N10.95 billion to N2.125 trillion from N2.125 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 18.31 points to 3,570.37 points from 3,552.06 points.

Yesterday, the NASD bourse recorded a price loser, the Central Securities Clearing System Plc (CSCS), which gave up 17 Kobo to close at N33.70 per unit against the previous trading value of N33.87 per unit.

The volume of securities traded at the session went down by 97.6 per cent to 297,902 units from the previous day’s 12.6 million units, the value of securities decreased by 98.5 per cent to N10.5 million from N713.6 million, and the number of deals remained flat at 32 deals.

By value, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended as the most actively traded stock on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units exchanged for N16.4 billion. This was followed by Okitipupa Plc, which traded 178.9 million units valued at N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

In terms of volume, also on a year-to-date basis, InfraCredit Plc led the chart with a turnover of 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc ranked second with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, while Impresit Bakolori Plc followed with the sale of 536.9 million units valued at N524.9 million.

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Economy

NGX All-Share Index Soars to 153,354.13 points

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All-Share Index NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

It was another bullish trading session for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it closed higher by 0.59 per cent on Tuesday.

The market further rallied due to continued interest in large and mid-cap stocks on the exchange by investors rebalancing their portfolios for the year-end.

Yesterday, Aluminium Extrusion sustained its upward trajectory after it further appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N14.90, as Austin Laz gained 9.81 per cent to close at N2.91, Custodian Investment improved by 9.69 per cent to N38.50, and First Holdco soared by 9.35 per cent to N50.30.

Conversely, Royal Exchange declined by 7.22 per cent to N1.80, Champion Breweries shrank by 6.57 per cent to N15.65, NASCON lost 5.36 per cent to trade at N105.05, Sovereign Trust Insurance depreciated by 5.28 per cent to N3.77, and Japaul went down by 4.51 per cent to N2.33.

At the close of business, 29 shares ended on the gainers’ table and 27 shares finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

This raised the All-Share Index (ASI) by 895.06 points to 153,354.13 points from 152,459.07 points and lifted the market capitalisation by N579 billion to N97.772 trillion from the previous day’s N97.193 trillion.

VFD Group finished the day as the busiest stock after it recorded a turnover of 192.0 million units worth N2.1 billion, GTCO exchanged 63.5 million units valued at N5.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 49.8 million units for N1.0 billion, First Holdco sold 45.8 million units valued at N2.3 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 38.3 million units worth N28.4 million.

In all, market participants bought and sold 677.4 million units valued at N20.8 billion in 27,589 deals compared with the 451.5 million units worth N13.0 billion traded in 33,327 deals on Monday, showing an improvement in the trading volume and value by 50.03 per cent and 60.00 per cent apiece, and a shortfall in the number of deals by 17.22 per cent.

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