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Economy

Nigeria’s 2018 Economic Outlook Remains Challenging—IMF

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2018 still remains challenging.

The global lender made this observation at the end of its visit to the country this week.

From June 27 to July 9, 2018, an IMF staff team led by the Senior Resident Representative and Mission Chief for Nigeria, Mr Amine Mati, visited Nigeria, where they held “productive discussions with senior government and central bank officials.”

The team also met with representatives of the banking system, the private sector, civil society, and international development partners.

In a statement issued at the end of the visit, which was obtained by Business Post, the IMF said, “Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging.”

The global financial institution said Nigeria’s external reserves have remained stable at about $47 billion, supported by some convergence in existing foreign exchange windows, and despite some reversal of foreign inflows since April.

It noted that inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years with real GDP expanding by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the first quarter of last year.

“However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending,” the bank stressed.

It pointed out that, “Corporate tax collection efforts improved but revenue shortfalls and the late adoption of the 2018 budget impede its implementation.

“Revenue from higher oil prices is limited by net losses from retail fuel sales while non-oil revenue remains below expectations, with yields from tax administration measures—including the Voluntary Asset Income Declaration Scheme (VAID) and increased tax audits—yet to fully materialize.

“Current spending remains in line with expectations. Carryover from 2017 to 2018 helped increase capital spending in the first four months of 2018, despite delayed approval of the 2018 budget.

“Lower yields have kept interest payments within the budgeted envelope, but the Federal Government’s interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to absorb more than half of revenues this year.”

“Reforms to improve the business environment are progressing, including through identification of priority investment projects and the adoption of the Company and Allied Matters Act (CAMA)—a legislative landmark for private sector development.

“The implementation of the Power Sector Recovery Plan is advancing through a mini-grid policy, and regulations on eligible customers and meter asset providers,” the IMF said in the statement.

It emphasised that, “Under current policies, the outlook remains challenging. Growth would pick up to about 2 percent in 2018, weighed down by lower than expected oil production and relatively weak agriculture growth. The fiscal deficit would narrow slightly, with higher oil revenues offsetting increased spending, including those planned in a supplementary budget.

“Inflation would pick up in the second half of 2018 as base effects dissipate and higher spending and supply constraints in agriculture put pressure on prices.

“Increased oil exports would keep the current account in surplus, helping stabilize gross international reserves even if the current pace of foreign portfolio outflows continues.”

Furthermore, the IMF said, “A coherent set of policies to reduce vulnerabilities and increase growth remains urgent.

“This includes specific and sustainable measures to increase the currently low tax revenue—including through avoiding new tax exemptions — and ensuring budget targets are adhered to even in an election year.

“This process should be supported by keeping monetary policy tight through appropriate monetary policy tools that will help contain inflationary pressures and support a move towards a uniform market-determined exchange rate.

“Moving ahead with structural reforms is needed to invigorate inclusive growth, particularly in the power sector where faster progress would be needed to ensure financing shortfalls in the sector are met in a sustainable manner.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

FAAC Disbursement for April 2025 Drops to N1.578trn

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The amount shared by the federal government, the 36 state governments and the 774 local government areas of the federation from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in April 2025 from the revenue generated last month declined by N100 billion, Business Post reports.

This month, FAAC disbursed about N1.578 trillion to the three tiers of government, lower than the N1.678 billion distributed in March 2025.

In a communiqué by the Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Bawa Mokwa, it was stated that the N1.578 trillion comprised statutory revenue of N931.325 billion, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N593.750 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N24.971 billion, and an Exchange Difference revenue of N28.711 billion.

The money was shared after deducting N85.376 billion as cost of collection and N747.180 billion as total transfers, interventions and refunds from the total gross revenue of N2.411 trillion generated by the nation last month.

It was explained that gross statutory revenue of N1.718 trillion was received for March 2025 versus N1.653 trillion received in February 2025, and gross revenue of N637.618 billion was available from VAT compared with N654.456 billion a month earlier.

As for the distribution of the N1.578 trillion, FAAC said it gave the federal government N528.696 billion, the states N530.448 billion, the local councils N387.002 billion, and the benefiting states N132.611 billion as 13 per cent of mineral revenue.

It disclosed that on the N931.325 billion statutory revenue, the federal government received N422.485 billion, the state governments got N214.290 billion, the LGAs were given N165.209 billion, and the oil-producing states went away with N129.341 billion.

Further, from the N593.750 billion VAT revenue, the national government got N89.063 billion, the state governments received N296.875 billion, and the local councils got N207.813 billion.

In addition, from the N24.971 billion EMTL, the central government was given N3.746 billion, the state governments got N12.485 billion, and LGAs shared N8.740 billion.

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Economy

Nigeria, South Africa Sign Agreement to Boost Mining 

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and South Africa have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to boost mining cooperation, focusing on investment, knowledge exchange, and technology transfer.

The agreement was signed in Abuja by the Solid Minerals Development Minister, Mr Dele Alake, and South Africa’s Mineral Resources, Mr Gwede Mantashe.

A statement on Wednesday said the MoU was part of efforts to strengthen ties under the Nigeria–South Africa Bi-National Commission framework.

It noted that the deal sets out specific areas of collaboration alongside defined implementation timelines for joint activities and engagements in the mining sector.

“Both ministers pledged ongoing engagement to advance intra-African trade and implement practical steps outlined in the agreement,” it said.

The ministers also expressed optimism that the renewed partnership would significantly strengthen the mining industries of both countries through shared expertise and innovation.

Key highlights include capacity building in geological methods using UAVs and applying spectral remote sensing technologies for mineral exploration and mapping.

Other areas cover geoscientific data sharing via the Nigeria Geological Survey Agency, training in mineral processing, and value-addition initiatives.

The MoU also supports capacity building in elemental fingerprinting with LA-ICP-MS and joint exploration of agro and energy minerals within Nigeria.

Mr Alake restated that bilateral cooperation holds promise for industrialisation, employment generation, and sustainable economic development across the African continent.

“The agreement on geology, mining, and mineral processing will foster knowledge exchange, promote investment, and encourage regional integration,” Mr Alake stated.

He reiterated Nigeria’s focus on developing its mining sector, noting mutual benefits through mineral wealth and South Africa’s technological expertise.

According to Mr Alake, this synergy will attract investments, build skills, and help diversify Nigeria’s economy for long-term growth and stability.

Mr Mantashe, on his part lauded the agreement, noting that it will be crucial to South Africa, as well as promote cooperation between the two African nations.

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Economy

ARM-Harith Secures £10m to Unlock Nigerian Pension Funds

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FSD Africa ARM-Harith

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

About £10 million has been injected into ARM-Harith’s Climate and Transition Infrastructure Fund (ACT Fund) to unlock local institutional capital for climate infrastructure.

The leading African private equity firm received the financial support from the United Kingdom-backed FSD Africa Investments (FSDAi) to unlock nigerian pension funds and catalyse local capital for infrastructure.

It was gathered that 75 per cent of the FSDAi facility would be provided in local currency, a first-of-its- kind approach specifically designed to mitigate the impact of foreign exchange (FX) volatility for pension funds.

This structure is expected to unlock an additional £31 million in pension fund contributions, nearly five times the participation achieved in ARM- Harith’s first fund.

The investment from ARM-Harith and FSDAi introduces an innovative solution to allow Nigerian pension funds to address a longstanding challenge in infrastructure equity finance: the ability to invest while receiving early liquidity.

By enabling predictable interim distributions during the early phases of investment, this innovative facility directly addresses a key barrier that has historically deterred domestic institutional capital from entering the asset class.

“For too long, domestic pension funds have remained on the sidelines of infrastructure equity due to liquidity constraints and heightened perception of risk.

“We are proud to have collaborated with FSDAi to design a pioneering solution that reduces risk for pension funds while delivering both early liquidity and long-term capital growth.

“This is a global first—a groundbreaking private sector-led solution that could fundamentally change how infrastructure equity is financed—not just in Nigeria, but across Africa,” the chief executive of ARM-Harith, Ms Rachel Moré-Oshodi, said.

Also, the Chief Investment Officer of FSDAi, Ms Anne-Marie Chidzero, said, “We are thrilled to collaborate with ARM-Harith to showcase how risk- bearing capital from a market-building investor like FSDAi can be strategically structured to unlock domestic institutional capital. This approach strengthens Africa’s financial markets and facilitates capital allocation towards sustainable, green economic growth across the continent.”

On his part, the British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, Mr Jonny Baxter, said, “The UK government, through its bilateral and investment vehicles is committed to continue to support the country’s financial sector — developing domestic capital markets as a means of financing priority sectors and driving economic development.

“Local currency capital helps mitigate the impact of foreign exchange volatility, narrows the financing gap, supports diversification into new asset classes and into climate- related projects and social sectors – while providing long-term funds to growing businesses.”

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