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Nigeria’s Economy to Grow 1.2% as Recession Recedes—World Bank

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A growth rate of 1.2 percent has been predicted by the World Bank for Nigeria’s economy in 2017, Business Post has learnt.

The global financial institution, in its Global Economic Prospects for June 2017 released this week, said it expects the Africa’s second biggest economy to rise to 2.4 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019, when the country goes to the polls to elect a new leader.

According to the World Bank, militants’ attacks on oil pipelines in Nigeria have decreased, causing oil exports to rebound on the back of an uptick in oil production from fields previously damaged by vandals, ultimately leading to more earnings for the country to help the economy.

The organisation noted that the economic recession in Nigeria was receding and that mining companies across the region were resuming production and exports.

“In the first quarter of 2017, GDP fell by 0.5 percent (y/y), compared with a 1.7 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016.

“The Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturers returned to expansionary territory in April, indicating growth in the sector after contraction in the first quarter.

“Non-resource-intensive countries, including those in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), have been expanding at a solid pace. Several factors are preventing a more vigorous recovery,” a part of the report said.

It pointed out that although a process of disinflation has started in Angola and Nigeria, inflation in both countries remains elevated, owing to a highly depreciated parallel market exchange rate.

The World Bank said for the Sub-Saharan Africa, growth, despite slowing sharply in 2016, was recovering, supported by modestly rising commodity prices, strengthening external demand, and the end of drought in several countries.

It noted that growth in region is forecast to pick up to 2.6 percent in 2017, and average 3.4 percent in 2018-19, slightly above population growth.

The recovery is predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. The forecasts are below those in January, reflecting a slower-than anticipated recovery in several oil and metals exporters, the World Bank said.

Per capita output growth—which is projected to increase from -0.1 percent in 2017 to 0.7 percent in 2018-19—will remain insufficient to achieve poverty reduction goals in the region if the constraints to more vigorous growth persist, the report stated.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

NGX Market Cap Surpasses N110trn as FY 2025 Earnings Impress Investors

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By Dipo Olowookere

Investors at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited have continued to show excitement for the full-year earnings of companies on the exchange so far.

On Friday, Customs Street further appreciated by 1.01 per cent as more organization released their financial statements for the 2025 fiscal year.

During the session, traders continued their selective trading strategy, with the energy sector going up by 2.47 per cent at the close of business despite profit-taking in the banking counter, which saw its index down by 0.11 per cent.

Yesterday, the insurance space grew by 2.16 per cent, the industrial goods segment expanded by 1.70 per cent, and the consumer goods industry jumped by 0.42 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,722.13 points to 171,727.49 points from 170,005.36 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N1.106 trillion to N110.235 trillion from the N109.129 trillion it ended on Thursday.

Business Post reports that there were 59 appreciating stocks and 19 depreciating stocks on Friday, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

The trio of Omatek, Deap Capital, and NAHCO gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N2.64, N6.82, and N136.40 apiece, as Zichis and Austin Laz appreciated by 9.98 per cent each to close at N6.72 and N5.40, respectively.

Conversely, The Initiates depreciated by 9.74 per cent to N19.45, DAAR Communications slumped by 7.32 per cent to N1.90, United Capital crashed by 6.55 per cent to N18.55, Coronation Insurance lost 5.71 per cent to quote at N3.30, and First Holdco shrank by 5.53 per cent to N47.00.

The activity chart showed an improvement in the activity level, with the trading volume, value, and number of deals up by 33.77 per cent, 93.27 per cent, and 10.63 per cent, respectively.

This was because traders transacted 953.8 million shares worth N43.1 billion in 51,005 deals compared with the 713.0 million shares valued at N22.3 billion traded in 46,104 deals a day earlier.

Fidelity Bank was the most active with 92.4 million units sold for N1.8 billion, Chams transacted 69.2 million units valued at N310.9 million, Deap Capital exchanged 59.1 million units worth N382.7 million, Access Holdings traded 57.2 million units valued at N1.3 billion, and Tantalizers transacted 48.6 million units worth N228.2 million.

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Economy

Naira Retreats to N1,366.19/$1 After 13 Kobo Loss at Official Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The value of the Naira contracted against the United States Dollar on Friday by 13 Kobo or 0.01 per cent to N1,366.19/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) from the previous day’s value of N1,366.06/$1.

According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nigerian currency also depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday by N2.37 to N1,857.75/£1 from the N1,855.38/£1 it was traded on Thursday, and further depleted against the Euro by 57 Kobo to close at N1,612.52/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,611.95/€1.

In the same vein, the exchange rate for international transactions on the GTBank Naira card showed that the Naira lost N8 on the greenback yesterday to N1,383/$1 from the previous day’s N1,375/$1 and at the black market, the Nigerian currency maintained stability against the Dollar at N1,450/$1.

FX analysts anticipate this trend to persist, primarily influenced by increasing external reserves, renewed inflows of foreign portfolio investments, and a reduction in speculative demand.

In the short term, stability in the FX market is expected to continue, supported by policy interventions and improving market confidence.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves experienced an upward trajectory, increasing by $632.38 million within the week to $46.91 billion from $46.27 billion in the previous week.

The Dollar appreciation this week appears to be largely technical, serving as a correction to the substantial losses experienced from mid- to late January.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market slightly appreciated, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing near $68,000, up nearly 5 per cent since hitting $60,000 late on Thursday after investor confidence in crypto’s utility as a store of value, inflation hedge, and digital currency faltered.

The sell-off extended beyond crypto, with silver plunging 15 per cent and gold sliding more than 2 per cent. US stocks also fell.

The latest recoup saw the price of BTC up by 4.7 per cent to $67,978.96, as Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 6.3 per cent to $2,021.10, and Ripple (XRP) surged by 9.5 per cent to $1.42.

In addition, Solana (SOL) grew by 7.3 per cent to $85.22, Cardano (ADA) added 6.1 per cent to trade at $0.2683, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 5.4 per cent to $0.0958, Litecoin (LTC) rose by 5.2 per cent to $53.50, and Binance Coin (BNB) jumped by 2.3 per cent to $637.79, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Prices Climb on Worries of Possible Iran-US Conflict

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled higher on Friday as traders worried that this week’s talks between the US and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries.

Brent crude futures traded at $68.05 a barrel after going up by 50 cents or 0.74 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $63.55 a barrel due to the addition of 26 cents or 0.41 per cent.

Iran and the US held negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday to overcome sharp differences over Iran’s nuclear programme.

It was reported that the talks had ended with Iran’s foreign minister saying negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations and the talks will continue.

Regardless, the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues while the US wanted to discuss Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region.

Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world’s total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does Iran, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

According to Reuters, Iran objected to the presence of any US Central Command (CENTCOM) or other regional military officials, saying that would jeopardise the process.

The current confrontation was sparked by more than two weeks of unrest in Iran that saw authorities launch a deadly crackdown that killed thousands of civilians and shocked the world. As reports of the deaths trickled out of Iran, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if any of the tens of thousands of protesters arrested were executed.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s planned oil exports could fall by as much as 35 per cent this month via its main route through Russia, as the country’s top oil company, Tengiz oilfield, slowly recovers from fires at power facilities in January.

ING analysts have pointed out Iran’s neighbour, Iraq, and a disagreement with the US as another bullish factor for oil prices. It seems Iraqi politicians favour Mr Nouri al-Maliki as the country’s next Prime Minister, but the US thinks Mr al-Maliki is too close to Iran. President Trump has already threatened the oil producer with consequences if he emerges as PM.

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