Economy
Nigeria’s GDP to Grow 2.0% in 2021, Naira to Trade N419/$1—FBNQuest
By Dipo Olowookere
The economy of Nigeria, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is expected to expand by 2.0 per cent in 2021, the research team at FBNQuest has projected.
In the third quarter of 2020, Nigeria slipped into the second recession in four years under President Muhammadu Buhari as a result of the two straight declines in the GDP; 6.10 per cent in Q2 and 3.62 per cent in Q3.
But both the fiscal and monetary authorities in the country have expressed optimism that this economic crisis would be short-lived as the GDP will record growth in the first quarter of 2021.
FBNQuest Research seems to align with this as it said a modest fiscal stimulus and targeted private investment will propel the economy to grow by 2.0 per cent this year.
It further said the low-interest rates in the United States and an average Bonny Light Crude price of $56 per barrel will support Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021.
“In addition to fiscal stimulus and private-sector investment, the report identifies financial technology, agriculture, and ICT as primary drivers of growth in 2021,” the firm further noted.
However, FBNQuest Research said the exchange rate in Nigeria will suffer a decline against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window of the foreign exchange market.
In a report made available to Business Post, it noted that at end-2021, the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar at the I&E/NAFEX will average at N419/$1.
In the opinion of FBNQuest, a combination of higher oil revenue, multilateral loans and Eurobond sales should underpin reserves this year and allow the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to contain Naira depreciation.
With regards to asset prices, FBNQuest projects another positive year for equities in 2021, noting that lower yields and the elevated liquidity available to domestic institutions buoyed stocks in 2020.
The impact of lower rates is expected to carry over into 2021, albeit with less dramatic impact, as domestic institutions are swayed by dividend yield offered by bank stocks, it said.
The team further disclosed that a number of non-financial stocks such as Seplat, Flour Mills, Nestle Nigeria and UAC of Nigeria are also expected to outperform in 2021.
FBNQuest projects that the All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) will rise 20 per cent in 2021, while in the fixed income market, yields are projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 10 per cent to 11 per cent on most bonds by the end of the year.
According to the firm, however, these comments are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks, as the report only seeks to present projections based on analyses.
Economy
PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.
The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.
The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.
The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.
“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.
“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.
“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”
She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.
The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.
All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.
The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.
Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.
PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.
Economy
DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.
The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.
Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.
The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.
The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.
The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.
Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.
An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.
It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.
Economy
Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Talks
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices climbed on Monday’s short trade as the United States and Iran threatened more attacks, as the two countries are engaging in indirect talks that could lead to the de-escalation of hostilities.
Brent crude futures settled at $109.77 a barrel after chalking up 74 cents or 0.68 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $112.40 after growing by 87 cents or 0.78 per cent.
The US and Iran received a framework from Pakistan to end hostilities, but this was rejected by Iran, especially the idea of immediately reopening the strait after President Donald Trump threatened to rain “hell” on the nation if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.
Iran said it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.
The US is eyeing an agreement to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the shipping artery used by one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, but the strait, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the U.S.-Israel attacks began on February 28.
Some vessels, however, including an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the strait since Thursday.
Meanwhile, major oil consumers, particularly in Asia, are conserving barrels or cutting consumption in response to the closure of the strait.
The Middle East supply disruptions have led refiners to seek alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.
Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.
On Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, this will only appear on paper as the disruption is limiting the ability of the top producers to add the needed output.
OPEC’s combined oil output losses for March were estimated at 7.2 million barrels daily. The biggest production cuts were made by Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, for a total OPEC output of 21.57 million barrels daily for March. This is the lowest OPEC production rate since June 2020.
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