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Nigeria’s GDP to Grow 2.0% in 2021, Naira to Trade N419/$1—FBNQuest

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Dipo Olowookere

The economy of Nigeria, measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is expected to expand by 2.0 per cent in 2021, the research team at FBNQuest has projected.

In the third quarter of 2020, Nigeria slipped into the second recession in four years under President Muhammadu Buhari as a result of the two straight declines in the GDP; 6.10 per cent in Q2 and 3.62 per cent in Q3.

But both the fiscal and monetary authorities in the country have expressed optimism that this economic crisis would be short-lived as the GDP will record growth in the first quarter of 2021.

FBNQuest Research seems to align with this as it said a modest fiscal stimulus and targeted private investment will propel the economy to grow by 2.0 per cent this year.

It further said the low-interest rates in the United States and an average Bonny Light Crude price of $56 per barrel will support Nigeria’s economic recovery in 2021.

“In addition to fiscal stimulus and private-sector investment, the report identifies financial technology, agriculture, and ICT as primary drivers of growth in 2021,” the firm further noted.

However, FBNQuest Research said the exchange rate in Nigeria will suffer a decline against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window of the foreign exchange market.

In a report made available to Business Post, it noted that at end-2021, the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar at the I&E/NAFEX will average at N419/$1.

In the opinion of FBNQuest, a combination of higher oil revenue, multilateral loans and Eurobond sales should underpin reserves this year and allow the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to contain Naira depreciation.

With regards to asset prices, FBNQuest projects another positive year for equities in 2021, noting that lower yields and the elevated liquidity available to domestic institutions buoyed stocks in 2020.

The impact of lower rates is expected to carry over into 2021, albeit with less dramatic impact, as domestic institutions are swayed by dividend yield offered by bank stocks, it said.

The team further disclosed that a number of non-financial stocks such as Seplat, Flour Mills, Nestle Nigeria and UAC of Nigeria are also expected to outperform in 2021.

FBNQuest projects that the All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) will rise 20 per cent in 2021, while in the fixed income market, yields are projected to rise by 3 percentage points to 10 per cent to 11 per cent on most bonds by the end of the year.

According to the firm, however, these comments are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any stocks, as the report only seeks to present projections based on analyses.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Naira Strengthens to N1,344/$ at Official FX Market

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reject old Naira notes

By Adedapo Adesanya

It was another outstanding performance for the Nigerian Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, March 17, as it further appreciated against the US Dollar by N8.46 or 0.62 per cent to trade at N1,344.04/$1, in contrast to Monday’s closing rate of N1,357.77/$1.

It also gained N6.85 against the Euro in the official FX market during the session to sell at N1,551.46/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,558.31/€1, but weakened against the Pound Sterling by N6.33 to close at N1,795.87/£1 versus Monday’s value of N1,789.54/£1.

At the GTBank forex counter, the Naira improved its value against the Dollar yesterday by N20 to settle at N1,365/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,385/$1, and in the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.

With over $50 billion in foreign reserves, analysts assert that the outlook for the Naira is positive, powered by expectations of increased forex receipts from Nigeria’s hydrocarbon sales, as potential disruptions to global oil supply have increased volatility in energy markets.

The pressure that has piled on the local currency appeared to ease, buoyed by higher oil prices that have continued to bolster market sentiment.

Call for allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz was ignored, prompting traders to speculate that a continued closure is likely, which means oil prices will remain higher.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was in green ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting. There are no expectations that the US central bank will move rates at its Wednesday meeting, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s tone regarding the inflation outlook could prove a catalyst.

Analysts noted that a hawkish tone alongside hot February Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data could weigh on equities and crypto, but Mr Powell’s signal that the Federal Reserve is treating rising oil prices as a temporary shock could extend the crypto rally.

Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 2.6 per cent to $0.2905, TRON (TRX) grew by 2.3 per cent to $0.3033, Ripple (XRP) jumped 1.2 per cent to $1.52, Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.9 per cent to $2,320.83, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 0.8 per cent to $0.1005, Solana (SOL) gained 0.6 per cent to sell at $94.11, and Bitcoin (BTC) went up by 0.3 per cent to $74,073.07.

However, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.3 per cent to close at $672.27, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Oil Gains Over 3% Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict

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Oil License Bidders

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil was up more than 3 per cent on Tuesday as renewed Iranian attacks on the ​United Arab Emirates (UAE) heightened concerns about the worsening outlook for global supply.

Brent crude futures appreciated by $3.21 or 3.2 per cent to $103.42 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.71 or 2.9 per cent to trade at $96.21 per barrel.

Prices had fallen previously after some vessels sailed through the critical ​Strait of Hormuz, a vital gateway for ​about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade

The Iran war shows no signs of abating as it renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on ​Tuesday, causing oil loading at the port of Fujairah to be at least partly halted after the third attack in four days ignited a fire at the export terminal.

Fujairah, located on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait of Hormuz, is a critical exit point for oil volumes equivalent to roughly 1 per cent of global ​demand.

The ​attacks on oil installations by Iran and the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have traders worried for long-term impairment to ⁠supply that could keep prices elevated.

The effective closure of the strait has forced the UAE, which is the third-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to reduce its output by more ​than half.

Several allies of the US rebuffed President Donald Trump’s call on Monday to send warships to escort shipping through the strait.

On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said France would never take part in operations to unblock the strait, and would only participate ​in a coalition that could provide ​freedom of navigation once hostilities ⁠ended.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration reiterated its position that they see the Iran conflict lasting weeks, not months.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Mr Fatih Birol, has suggested member countries could release more oil, in addition to the 400 million barrels they have ​already agreed to draw from strategic reserves.

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Economy

Odu’a Investment Buys 10% Stake in FCMB Pensions

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FCMB Pensions

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 10 per cent equity stake has been acquired by Odu’a Investment Company Limited in a subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc, FCMB Pensions Limited.

The move is aimed at strengthening its presence in Nigeria’s growing pension industry.

The company disclosed that the transaction was completed after receiving all required regulatory approvals from the National Pension Commission (PenCom) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), while the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also been duly notified.

Odu’a Investment said the acquisition represents a strategic investment in a resilient and steadily expanding segment of Nigeria’s financial services sector.

The company added that the deal also reinforces FCMB Pensions’ shareholder base through the entry of a long-term institutional investor.

Chairman of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Bimbo Ashiru, said the investment aligns with the organisation’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors critical to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability.

“This investment reflects Odu’a’s strategy of partnering with strong institutions operating in sectors that are central to Nigeria’s long-term economic stability and growth,” he said in a statement.

“The pension industry plays a critical role in mobilising long-term savings and strengthening the financial system. FCMB Pensions has built a solid platform serving contributors across Nigeria, and we see a significant opportunity to support its continued growth and impact,” he added.

Also commenting on the transaction, the Managing Director of Odu’a Investment Company Limited, Mr Abdulrahman Yinusa, described the deal as a vote of confidence in FCMB Pensions’ leadership and long-term prospects.

“Our partnership with FCMB Group Plc reflects confidence in FCMB Pensions’ strategy, leadership, and long-term potential. Together, we will work to expand its reach, support its strategic objectives, and deliver sustained value to contributors and other stakeholders,” Mr Yinusa said.

The investment brings together two established institutions with complementary strengths and a shared focus on long-term value creation. According to the company, the partnership positions FCMB Pensions to deepen market penetration and enhance service delivery within Nigeria’s contributory pension scheme.

Odu’a Investment Company Limited is an investment holding company jointly owned by the governments of the six South-West states of Nigeria.

The firm manages a diversified portfolio spanning real estate, financial services, hospitality, agriculture, and industrial investments, with a mandate to generate sustainable economic value and support regional development.

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