Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation to Close 2018 in Double Digits at 10.4%—Analysts
By Dipo Olowookere
If the forecast of analysts at FSDH Research is anything to go by, Nigeria will likely not meet the target of a single digit inflation rate set for 2018 at the beginning of this year.
This is because those at the investment research firm said with the present situation, that target will likely not be met.
In its weekly insight released on Monday, August 6, 2018, FSDH Research is predicting that the inflation rate will likely end the year at 10.40 percent.
Business Post reports that in June 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed that the year-on-year inflation dropped to 11.23 percent.
Analysts at FSDH Research are forecasting that inflation will likely moderate to 11.01 percent.
The stats office is expected to release the inflation figures on Wednesday, August 15, 2018, with the GDP for Q2 2018 due for release on August 20, 2018.
“FSDH Research notes that the June inflation figure recorded the highest month-on-month increase since June 2017.
“Although the inflation rate may continue to drop, it may remain in double digits in 2018. Under the current situation, FSDH Research expects the inflation rate to end the year in the region of 10.4 percent.
“The expected drop in the inflation rate may lead to a further drop in the yields on Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs),” the report said.
Also in the report, FSDH Research said the drop in the inflation rate for July would be largely due to the base effect of the previous year.
“In addition, we observe a slowdown in the price movement of some food items. The prevailing crisis in the food producing states in Nigeria is putting an upward pressure on food prices. This is a major risk to the achievement of a single digit inflation rate in 2018.
“The prices of most of the food items we monitored in July 2018 showed a slower increase compared with June 2018.
“The movement in the prices of food items increased our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index by 1.18 percent in July compared with an increase of 1.56 percent recorded in June. This Index increased year-on-year by 12.57 percent, up from 248.82 points recorded in July 2017.
“We also observed increases in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between June and July 2018,” it added.
The investment company also stated that it observed an expansion in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the month of July 2018.
The Manufacturing PMI at 56.8 points in July grew at a slower rate than the 57.0 points recorded for June.
“Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.7 points in July 2018 from 57.5 points in June 2018. We note that both PMI figures are above the baseline of 50 points.
“Additional fiscal measures to improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria would lead to a further expansion in the PMI,” it said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south territory with a decline of 0.56 per cent on Wednesday, April 2.
This brought down the market capitalisation by N13 billion to N2.417 trillion from N2.430 trillion, and downed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 22.57 points to 4,062.87 points from the previous session’s 4,062.87 points.
It was observed that the NASD exchange ended with three price gainers and three price losers during the trading day.
MRS Oil Plc depreciated by N19.00 to close at N171.00 per unit compared with the previous price of N190.00 per unit, NASD Plc lost N4.14 to trade at N37.36 per share compared with Wednesday’s N41.50 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc gave up N2.00 to sell at N78.00 per unit versus N80.00 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 19 Kobo to N93.00 per share from N92.81 per share, Food Concepts Plc expanded by 15 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.72 per unit, and Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc improved by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities dipped by 91.8 per cent to 260.2 million units from 3.2 billion units, the value of securities went down by 98.1 per cent to N154.2 million from N8.3 billion, while the number of deals soared by 53.3 per cent to 46 deals from 30 deals.
GNI Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 56.9 million units valued at N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.
The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was also GNI Plc with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.2 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units exchanged for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira dropped N2.09 or 0.15 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 2, to trade at N1,380.79/$1 compared with Wednesday’s rate of N1,378.70/$1.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N2.77 to quote at N1,824.86/£1 versus the N1,836.57/£1 it was traded at midweek, and improved its value against the Euro by N10.54 to N1,591.92/€1 from N1,602.46/€1.
Yesterday was the last trading session of the week for the local currency in the spot market, as the market will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter Holiday.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the greenback yesterday at N1,405/$1, but gained N8 at the GTBank FX counter to settle at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,396/$1.
Pressure eased on the domestic currency as strong policy indicators have helped calm the majority of worries within the financial systems. Particularly in the remittance segment, the apex bank has directed all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to route remittance transactions through designated Naira settlement accounts in banks, a move aimed at boosting transparency and channelling more foreign exchange into the formal market.
This helps take off pressure from the foreign reserves, which have fallen below the $50 billion mark as they are gradually decreasing rather than falling sharply.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish on Thursday, as macro sentiment shifted against recent optimism after reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about disruptions to a key global oil route.
The remarks came after U.S. President Trump on Wednesday night vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz would “open naturally” once the war ends.
Cardano (ADA) chalked up 1.9 per cent to trade at $0.2435, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 1.2 per cent to $0.0912, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.8 per cent to $2,066.37, Bitcoin (BTC) added 0.5 per cent to sell at $67,080.53, Solana (SOL) increased by 0.5 per cent to $79.91, and Ripple (XRP) jumped 0.2 per cent to $1.31.
Conversely, Binance Coin (BNB) dipped 0.7 per cent to $586.90, and TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.3 per cent to $0.3147, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock market was relatively flat on Friday, as the bears and the bulls shared the spoils of war, though investor sentiment turned bullish compared with the preceding session’s bearish posture.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited showed that the All-Share Index (ASI) was marginally down by 4.66 points as it ended at 201,698.89 points versus Wednesday’s 201,703.55 points, and the market capitalisation slightly contracted by N3 billion to N129.806 trillion from N129.809 trillion.
Customs Street was shut on Friday because of the public holidays declared by the federal government today and next Monday.
Business Post reports that John Holt declined by 9.91 per cent to N15.45, Abbey Mortgage Bank shed 9.60 per cent to trade at N8.95, International Energy Insurance slipped by 6.48 per cent to N3.32, Chams shrank by 5.30 per cent to N3.75, and Tantalizers depreciated by 5.18 per cent to N4.03.
On the flip side, Unilever Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent to N103.40, Fortis Global Insurance gained 9.82 per cent to trade at N1.23, Multiverse appreciated 9.81 per cent to N20.15, Legend Internet advanced by 9.38 per cent to N6.30, and Zichis grew by 9.02 per cent to N14.14.
The market breadth index was positive during the trading session, as there were 35 appreciating stocks and 24 depreciating stocks.
Yesterday, investors traded 560.0 million equities valued at N19.3 billion in 49,676 deals, in contrast to the 815.5 million equities worth N33.3 billion transacted in 52,641 deals in the preceding day, representing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 31.33 per cent, 42.04 per cent, and 5.63 per cent, respectively.
Secure Electronic Technology dominated the activity log with 59.7 million shares valued at N61.1 million, Wema Bank exchanged 52.0 million equities worth N1.4 billion, VFD Group transacted 36.0 million stocks for N410.5 million, Access Holdings sold 35.3 million shares valued at N914.8 million, and Chams traded 31.0 million equities worth N115.0 million.
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