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Nigeria’s March Inflation to Drop to 11.29%—FSDH

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inflation rate Nigeria

By Dipo Olowookere

Analysts at FSDH Research have said they expect a marginal drop in the inflation rate for the month of March 2019.

In their Inflation Watch released few days ago, it was stated that the rate could likely decline to 11.29 percent from 11.31 percent recorded in February 2019.

Explaining the rationale behind this expected decline, it was said that the latest review of food prices and other major items that make up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket (alcohol beverages, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and etc.) support a slight drop in the inflation rate in March.

However, FSDH Research said on a month-on-month basis, there was an increase in the general price level from 0.74 percent in February to 0.83 percent in March 2019.

Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cited the moderation in the inflation rate since January as one of the justifications for a cut in the interest rate in March 2019.

“As the rainy season approaches, we expect an increase in the prices of food items, particularly vegetables.

“A declining inflation rate is a good development for the Nigerian economy, but we note that the main factors that will ensure the inflation rate drops to a single digit, which is the target of the CBN, are outside the control of the CBN.

“The poor infrastructure in Nigeria, high energy costs, insecurity in some parts of the country and excessive reliance on crude oil as the major source of revenue and foreign exchange earner are the major drivers of inflation in Nigeria.

“Our preliminary checks also suggest that imported inflation rate (i.e. prices of goods using imports as raw materials) lessened in March. The marginal appreciation in the value of Naira in March compared with the relative stability in the prices of food items on the international market provided a gain on the prices of consumer items in Nigeria,” it said.

It was disclosed that the increase in the global price of crude oil in March and increase in the inflow from the Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) led to the appreciation in the value of the Naira.

The value of the Naira at end-March at N360.47/$ compared with end-February at N361.13/$ indicates that the value of the Naira strengthened by N0.66.

“Although our expected inflation rate forecast is still higher than the target of the CBN, the relative low inflation rate may encourage the issuance of Commercial Papers (CPs) that will enable corporates to fund their short-term capital requirements,” it stated.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index Rises 0.28%

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All-Share Index NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) further gained 0.28 per cent on Thursday amid sustained bargain-hunting across the key sectors of the market.

According to data, the banking counter appreciated by 1.12 per cent, the insurance index went up by 0.67 per cent, the consumer goods sector improved by 0.44 per cent, the energy space grew by 0.43 per cent, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.18 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 87.03 points to 202,672.56 points from 202,585.53 points and the market capitalisation added N55 billion to settle at N130.459 trillion compared with Wednesday’s N130.404 trillion.

Business Post reports that the market breadth index was flat yesterday, with 31 price gainers and 31 price losers.

Trans Nationwide Express gained 9.94 per cent to close at N3.43, International Energy Insurance appreciated by 9.84 per cent to N3.46, UPDC REIT advanced by 9.63 per cent to N7.40, Guinea Insurance rose by 9.52 per cent to N1.15, and Regency Alliance went up by 9.52 per cent to N1.07.

On the flip side, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N4.32, RT Briscoe crashed by 9.94 per cent to N8.88, Tantalizers contracted by 9.55 per cent to N3.98, Livestock Feeds moderated by 9.40 per cent to N6.75, and VFD Group retreated by 8.85 per cent to N10.30.

The most active stock for the day was Access Holdings with 121.7 million units worth N3.2 billion, GTCO transacted 62.3 million units valued at N8.1 billion, Chams exchanged 60.7 million units for N187.4 million, Zenith Bank traded 43.7 million units worth N4.9 billion, and UBA sold 29.0 million units valued at N1.3 billion.

At the close of business, market participants bought and sold 652.9 million units for N39.8 billion in 51,101 deals compared with the 1.0 billion units worth N40.6 billion transacted in 52,723 deals at midweek, indicating a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 34.71 per cent, 1.97 per cent, and 3.08 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Oil Inches Up as Fragile Ceasefire Keeps Lid on Prices

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Brent crude oil price

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices moved ​up by about 1 per cent on Thursday amid volatile trading due to the fragile Middle East ceasefire, with Brent crude futures gaining $1.17 or 1.2 per cent to sell at $95.92 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures expanding by $3.46 or 3.7 per cent to $97.87 a barrel.

Initially, prices rose over doubts about the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as well as concerns about ongoing restrictions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway connects supply from Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to global markets, and typically carries 20 per cent of global oil and gas supply.

The ceasefire hadn’t held for 24 hours when Israel continued air strikes on Lebanon, which Iran said was a violation of the deal with America and signalled the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz again.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said he had instructed ​officials to open peace talks with Lebanon, including discussions on disarming Hezbollah.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to well below 10 per cent of normal volumes on ​Thursday after Iran asserted control by warning vessels to remain within its territorial waters, and prices for some physical oil grades hit fresh all-time highs.

Shippers on Wednesday said they needed clarity on the terms of the ceasefire before resuming transit through the strait. Iran has issued maps to guide ships around mines and show safe paths for ​passage.

Concerns over supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia resurfaced as the kingdom’s oil production capacity was reduced by about 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on its East‑West Pipeline by ​roughly 700,000 barrels per day.

Regional oil facilities remain under threat, with Iran striking sites in nearby countries after the ceasefire. Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE also reported ⁠missile and ​drone attacks by Iran.

The ceasefire has led Goldman Sachs to trim its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and US ​crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, from previous forecasts that Brent and WTI oil prices would average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively. It also forecast that if the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to normal traffic for another month, Brent Crude prices would average more than $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026 and throughout the year.

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Economy

Company Income Tax Falls 49.8% to N1.49trn in Q4 2025

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Revenue from Company Income Tax (CIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 49.8 per cent to N1.487 trillion from N2.96 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figure was contained in the NBS Company Income Tax (CIT) Q4 2025 Report released in Abuja on Wednesday by the stats office.

CIT is a statutory levy imposed on the profits of incorporated businesses in Nigeria. It is governed primarily by the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) and administered by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

The report said domestic CIT received was N819.83 billion (55 per cent), while foreign CIT payment was N668.21 billion (45 per cent) in Q4 2025.

It said on a quarter-on-quarter basis, activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies recorded the highest growth rate with 75.15 per cent,

The report said this was followed by Education and real estate activities at 54.20 per cent and 27.25 per cent, respectively.

“On the other hand, accommodation and food services activities recorded the least growth rate at -67.11 per cent, followed by activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of households for own use at -63.49 per cent.

“It said mining quarrying was recorded at -49.63 per cent.”

In terms of sectoral contributions, the report showed that the top three activities with the highest contribution in Q4 2025 were financial and insurance activities at 18.17 per cent, manufacturing at 17.30 per cent and mining and quarrying at 15.04 per cent.

It said, on the other hand, the activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and 0.002 per cent.

“This was followed by water supply, sewage, waste management and remediation activities with 0.04 per cent.

The report, however, said that, on a year-on-year basis, CIT collections in Q4 2025 increased by 13.38 per cent from Q4 2024.

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