Economy
Nigeria’s Petrol Subsidy Payment Drops 36% in 2023 to N3.0trn
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has disclosed a 36 per cent decline in subsidy payments made by the government in 2023 to N3.0 trillion from the N4.71 trillion paid in 2022.
This was contained in an audit of the country’s petroleum industry by the transparency body, in a report presented on Friday in Abuja.
This happened as President Bola Tinubu removed the buffer in May 2023, saying there was no provision for it after June.
Many argue that the removal was partial as the government continued to pay subsidies, although the presidency has been adamant about this.
The report also noted that oil companies’ indebtedness to the federal government in terms of royalties and taxes has risen to $6.175 billion.
The report revealed a breakdown of $6.071 billion and N66.4 billion in unpaid royalties and gas flare penalties owed to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) as of August 31, 2024.
Additionally, there are outstanding petroleum profit taxes, company income taxes, withholding taxes, and VAT owed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) amounting to $21.926 million and N492.8 million as of June 2024.
NEITI also revealed a 9 per cent drop in industry revenue in 2023, with $16.467 billion recorded compared to $18.106 billion in 2022.
The NEITI report disclosed a total loss of 7.68 million barrels of crude oil in 2023 due to theft and measurement errors, a significant drop of 79 per cent from the 36.69 million barrels lost in 2022.
Additionally, 153.44 million barrels of crude oil production were deferred in 2023, with companies like SPDC (39.13 million barrels), TEPNG (6.07 million barrels), and TUPNI (3.5 million barrels) being the most affected.
It also stated that a total of 23.54 billion litres of PMS (premium motor spirit) were imported into the country in 2022, while 20.28 billion litres were imported in 2023. This represents a reduction of 3.25 billion litres, or a 14 per cent decline, following the removal of the subsidy.
“A detailed 10-year trend analysis (2014-2023) shows that the highest annual PMS importation into the country, 23.54 billion litres, was recorded in 2022, while the lowest, 16.88 billion litres, was recorded in 2017. A total of N15.87 trillion was claimed as under-recovery/price differentials between 2006 and 2023, with the highest amount, N4.714 trillion, recorded in 2022”.
Speaking at the report unveiling, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mr George Akume assured stakeholders that the government would continue to grant NEITI the freedom to fulfil its mandate to the country and the global Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, EITI.
“As the Chairman of the NEITI Board, I stand before you today to underscore the Federal Government’s respect for NEITI’s independence. While my role as Chairperson is a testament to the importance the government places on NEITI, it also signifies the commitment to ensure that NEITI operates independently, without interference, as mandated by the EITI standard. We must safeguard this independence with great care and diligence, ensuring that NEITI can operate free from undue influence”.
On his part, the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr Olanipekun Olukoyode promised to use the latest report to ensure that the government recovers all outstanding revenues from the companies.
The Chairman announced that from NEITI’s past reports, EFCC recently recovered and remitted over N1 billion to the Federal Government coffers.
Economy
Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.
The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.
The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.
The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.
The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.
Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.
The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.
“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.
“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.
The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.
“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.
“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”
Economy
Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.
President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.
On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.
Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.
“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.
“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.
He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.
“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.
The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.
This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.
The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.
He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
Economy
Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on
CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.
The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.
This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”
Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.
The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”
Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.
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