Economy
Oil Inches Up as Fragile Ceasefire Keeps Lid on Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices moved up by about 1 per cent on Thursday amid volatile trading due to the fragile Middle East ceasefire, with Brent crude futures gaining $1.17 or 1.2 per cent to sell at $95.92 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures expanding by $3.46 or 3.7 per cent to $97.87 a barrel.
Initially, prices rose over doubts about the two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as well as concerns about ongoing restrictions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway connects supply from Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to global markets, and typically carries 20 per cent of global oil and gas supply.
The ceasefire hadn’t held for 24 hours when Israel continued air strikes on Lebanon, which Iran said was a violation of the deal with America and signalled the shutting down of the Strait of Hormuz again.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said he had instructed officials to open peace talks with Lebanon, including discussions on disarming Hezbollah.
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to well below 10 per cent of normal volumes on Thursday after Iran asserted control by warning vessels to remain within its territorial waters, and prices for some physical oil grades hit fresh all-time highs.
Shippers on Wednesday said they needed clarity on the terms of the ceasefire before resuming transit through the strait. Iran has issued maps to guide ships around mines and show safe paths for passage.
Concerns over supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia resurfaced as the kingdom’s oil production capacity was reduced by about 600,000 barrels per day and cut throughput on its East‑West Pipeline by roughly 700,000 barrels per day.
Regional oil facilities remain under threat, with Iran striking sites in nearby countries after the ceasefire. Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE also reported missile and drone attacks by Iran.
The ceasefire has led Goldman Sachs to trim its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and US crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, from previous forecasts that Brent and WTI oil prices would average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively. It also forecast that if the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to normal traffic for another month, Brent Crude prices would average more than $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026 and throughout the year.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) further gained 0.28 per cent on Thursday amid sustained bargain-hunting across the key sectors of the market.
According to data, the banking counter appreciated by 1.12 per cent, the insurance index went up by 0.67 per cent, the consumer goods sector improved by 0.44 per cent, the energy space grew by 0.43 per cent, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.18 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 87.03 points to 202,672.56 points from 202,585.53 points and the market capitalisation added N55 billion to settle at N130.459 trillion compared with Wednesday’s N130.404 trillion.
Business Post reports that the market breadth index was flat yesterday, with 31 price gainers and 31 price losers.
Trans Nationwide Express gained 9.94 per cent to close at N3.43, International Energy Insurance appreciated by 9.84 per cent to N3.46, UPDC REIT advanced by 9.63 per cent to N7.40, Guinea Insurance rose by 9.52 per cent to N1.15, and Regency Alliance went up by 9.52 per cent to N1.07.
On the flip side, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N4.32, RT Briscoe crashed by 9.94 per cent to N8.88, Tantalizers contracted by 9.55 per cent to N3.98, Livestock Feeds moderated by 9.40 per cent to N6.75, and VFD Group retreated by 8.85 per cent to N10.30.
The most active stock for the day was Access Holdings with 121.7 million units worth N3.2 billion, GTCO transacted 62.3 million units valued at N8.1 billion, Chams exchanged 60.7 million units for N187.4 million, Zenith Bank traded 43.7 million units worth N4.9 billion, and UBA sold 29.0 million units valued at N1.3 billion.
At the close of business, market participants bought and sold 652.9 million units for N39.8 billion in 51,101 deals compared with the 1.0 billion units worth N40.6 billion transacted in 52,723 deals at midweek, indicating a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 34.71 per cent, 1.97 per cent, and 3.08 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Revenue from Company Income Tax (CIT) in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased by 49.8 per cent to N1.487 trillion from N2.96 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure was contained in the NBS Company Income Tax (CIT) Q4 2025 Report released in Abuja on Wednesday by the stats office.
CIT is a statutory levy imposed on the profits of incorporated businesses in Nigeria. It is governed primarily by the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA) and administered by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).
The report said domestic CIT received was N819.83 billion (55 per cent), while foreign CIT payment was N668.21 billion (45 per cent) in Q4 2025.
It said on a quarter-on-quarter basis, activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies recorded the highest growth rate with 75.15 per cent,
The report said this was followed by Education and real estate activities at 54.20 per cent and 27.25 per cent, respectively.
“On the other hand, accommodation and food services activities recorded the least growth rate at -67.11 per cent, followed by activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of households for own use at -63.49 per cent.
“It said mining quarrying was recorded at -49.63 per cent.”
In terms of sectoral contributions, the report showed that the top three activities with the highest contribution in Q4 2025 were financial and insurance activities at 18.17 per cent, manufacturing at 17.30 per cent and mining and quarrying at 15.04 per cent.
It said, on the other hand, the activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and 0.002 per cent.
“This was followed by water supply, sewage, waste management and remediation activities with 0.04 per cent.
The report, however, said that, on a year-on-year basis, CIT collections in Q4 2025 increased by 13.38 per cent from Q4 2024.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has warned that Nigeria’s economic recovery has yet to improve household welfare as wage growth continues to lag behind inflation, leaving real incomes under pressure.
This was disclosed in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update titled Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.
According to the report, while the Nigerian economy recorded moderate growth in 2026, following expansions of 4.1 per cent in 2024 and 4.0 per cent in 2025, the gains have not translated into improved living standards for most citizens.
It stated that growth was largely driven by the services sector, particularly ICT, financial services, and real estate, while agriculture and crude oil production made modest contributions.
On inflation, the report said price pressures have eased but remain in double digits, partly due to the impact of the Middle East conflict.
The lender noted that multidimensional poverty and weak early childhood development outcomes are threatening Nigeria’s long-term economic potential, despite signs of macroeconomic recovery.
The report explained that Nigeria is facing a deep early childhood development crisis, with poor outcomes in health, nutrition, and learning undermining productivity and future growth.
It emphasised that early childhood development, especially from pregnancy to age five, is critical to reversing the trend.
“Investments during this period generate lasting benefits, including better education outcomes, higher earnings, lower health costs, and stronger social cohesion. Investments during this period are highly cost-effective,” the report said.
The report highlighted alarming child welfare indicators, noting that 110 out of every 1,000 Nigerian children die before the age of five, 40 per cent are stunted, and 52 per cent are not developmentally on track before entering school.
It attributed these outcomes to persistent gaps in maternal healthcare, nutrition, early learning, and access to water and sanitation, particularly within the first 2,000 days of a child’s life.
The bank added that these outcomes remain “weak and highly unequal,” with significant disparities across income levels, regions, and states.
The report further revealed that favourable external inflows boosted reserves, with net external reserves rising to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025, while gross reserves reached $45.5 billion, equivalent to 8.7 months of imports.
However, it noted that Nigeria’s fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2025, as increased non-oil revenues were offset by higher state-level capital spending and federal recurrent expenditure.
“Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) gross revenues rose from 7.9 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 8.5 per cent in 2025, driven by strong non-oil tax collections reflecting improved tax administration.
“This includes expanded e-filing and e-payments, higher compliance ahead of the implementation of the new tax bills, and the rollout of VAT e-invoicing, alongside a 0.2 per cent of GDP rise in subnational internally generated revenues,” the report stated.
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