Economy
Oil Market Tumbles as US Intensifies Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market depreciated on Thursday as the administration of US President Donald Trump pushed for Ukraine’s acceptance of a peace agreement with Russia to end a war that has gone on for more than three years.
Brent crude futures settled at $63.38 a barrel after shedding 13 cents or 0.2 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $59.14 a barrel after it lost 30 cents or 0.5 per cent.
The US and Russia have reportedly drafted a plan to end the war, which includes Ukraine conceding territory. Reports of the plan, said to be devised by President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, have not been either confirmed or denied by both nations.
The peace proposal includes concessions of Ukrainian territory to Russia and reductions in Ukraine’s armed forces, both of which Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has previously rejected. However, on Thursday, Mr Zelenskiy said he would look over the proposal and confer with the US about the peace plan.
In addition, no foreign troops would be allowed on Ukrainian soil, and Ukraine would no longer receive long-range weaponry.
The proposals largely track with the demands Russia has made since the beginning of this year, when Mr Trump moved to open up direct negotiations with President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war.
Also, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X on Thursday that ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas.
US sanctions on trading with Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil come into effect on Friday, while Lukoil has until December 13 to sell its sprawling international portfolio.
Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ended November 14, the US Energy Information Administration said. However, analysts also noted that US gasoline (petrol) and distillate stockpiles increased for the first time in more than a month, suggesting slowing consumption.
Economy
Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.
The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.
The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.
The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.
The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.
Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.
The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.
“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.
“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.
The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.
“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.
“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”
Economy
Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.
President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.
On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.
Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.
“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.
“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.
He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.
“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.
The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.
This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.
The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.
He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
Economy
Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on
CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.
The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.
This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”
Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.
The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”
Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.
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