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Oil Mixed as Chinese Demand Improves, US Interest Rate Cut Remains Unclear

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Brazilian Crude Oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was mixed on Monday amid hopes of stronger demand backed by higher factory activity in China as concerns emerged that the US Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates again at its December meeting.

Yesterday, Brent crude futures depreciated by 1 cent to trade at $71.83 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 10 cents or 0.15 per cent to $68.10 per barrel.

New data showed China’s factory activity expanded in November at the fastest pace in five months as the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 the previous month, the highest since June.

This boosted Chinese business optimism after US President-elect Donald Trump pledged an additional 10 per cent tariff on imports from China.

He had previously threatened to end China’s most-favoured-nation trading status and slap tariffs on Chinese imports as high as 60 per cent, which is much higher than those imposed during his first term.

On the geopolitical front, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect last Wednesday, appeared to be shaky as it has not halted fighting.

Israel said on Monday that it was currently striking terror targets in Lebanon amid mutual accusations of ceasefire violations between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, the US, which was instrumental in the deal said the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was holding.

Traders also watched developments in Syria, weighing whether recent escalation could widen tensions across the Middle East and affect supply.

Rebels linked to Al-Qaeda took some territories in the high-conflict country over the weekend, and this has added to more worries about the stability of the Middle East region. This may trigger another spate of crises after years of civil war in the country.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, postponed the group’s next meeting to December 5.

The meeting will discuss delaying a planned oil output increase scheduled to start in January.

Market analysts noted that attention will be on the potential delay of the planned production hike, as an indefinite delay could alleviate downward pressure on prices.

This Thursday’s meeting will decide policy for the early months of 2025.

There are also signals that the US may decide not to cut interest rates again at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, with upcoming data on jobs important in shaping the decision.

Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.

Pressure also came as the Dollar strengthened after Mr Trump on Saturday threatened 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS member countries if they create a new currency or support another currency that could replace the Dollar in trade.

A stronger greenback makes Dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, hurting demand.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Nigeria Gets Fresh $500m World Bank Loan for Small Businesses

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Small Businesses

By Adedapo Adesanya

The World Bank has approved a $500 million facility for Nigeria to expand longer-term lending to small and medium sized businesses.

Approved under the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria (FINCLUDE) project, the package comprises a $400 million International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loan and a $100 million International Development Association (IDA) credit. Both IBRD and IDA are members of the World Bank Group.

The scheme will be implemented by the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN), with credit guarantees provided through DBN’s subsidiary, Impact Credit Guarantee Limited (ICGL).

FINCLUDE is designed to address constraints faced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Nigeria which despite accounting for most businesses and nearly half of gross domestic product (GDP) face long-standing barriers to formal finance.

Fewer than one in 20 MSMEs have access to bank credit; loans are often short-term and costly; and collateral requirements exclude many viable firms. Women-led enterprises, which make up a substantial portion of MSMEs, are disproportionately affected, facing higher rejection rates and limited tailored products. Agribusinesses, central to food security and rural livelihoods, similarly struggle to obtain more extended‑tenor financing for equipment, processing, storage, and logistics.

However, FINCLUDE seeks to address these constraints by expanding access to affordable, longer-term finance and tailored solutions for segments with the most significant development impact.

Speaking on this, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mr Mathew Verghis, said, “FINCLUDE is about jobs, opportunity, and inclusion. By expanding access to finance for viable MSMEs—particularly women-led firms and agribusinesses—Nigeria can accelerate growth and deliver tangible benefits across communities nationwide.

“The project will make it easier for deserving small businesses to get the finance they need to grow and hire workers. With better support for lenders that practice inclusive finance and fairer, longer-term loans for entrepreneurs, we are backing the people who power Nigeria’s economy—especially women and those in agriculture.”

The FINCLUDE project will help to mobilise private investment and expand access to and usage of inclusive, innovative financial products for MSMEs nationwide.

Through DBN, the operation will strengthen the capacity of banks, including microfinance banks and non-bank financial institutions such as financial technologies (fintechs), to provide larger loans with more reasonable repayment periods, and—through ICGL—will scale partial credit guarantees so that lenders can extend credit to businesses they might otherwise consider too risky.

Targeted technical assistance will modernise loan appraisal by leveraging AI-enabled digital platforms to accelerate decision-making, improve data quality, strengthen impact measurement, and build capacity for both MSMEs and participating financial institutions.

According to the World Bank, a strong emphasis on inclusion will ensure that women-led businesses and agribusinesses benefit from these improvements.

Also commenting, Task Team Leader for FINCLUDE, Mrs Hadija Kamayo, said, “FINCLUDE will help to mobilize approximately $1.89 billion in private capital, expand debt financing to 250,000 MSMEs—including at least 150,000 women-led businesses and 100,000 agribusinesses—and issue up to $800 million in guarantees to catalyse lending.

“By extending the average maturity of MSME loans to about three years, it will help firms invest in equipment, factories, staff, and productivity, translating finance into jobs and growth.”

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Economy

Nigerian Stocks Close 1.13% Higher to Remain in Bulls’ Territory

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Nigerian Stocks1

By Dipo Olowookere

The local stock market firmed up by 1.13 per cent on Friday as appetite for Nigerian stocks remained strong.

Investors reacted well to the 2026 budget presentation of President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly yesterday, especially because of the more realistic crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel compared with the ambitious $75 per barrel for 2025. This year, prices have been between $60 and $65 per barrel.

Business Post observed profit-taking in the commodity and energy sectors as they respectively shed 0.14 per cent and 0.03 per cent.

But, bargain-hunting in the others sustained the positive run, with the consumer goods index up by 3.82 per cent.

Further, the industrial goods space appreciated by 1.46 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.08 per cent, and the insurance industry gained 0.04 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,694.33 points to 152,057.38 points from 150,363.05 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N1.080 trillion to finish at N96.937 trillion compared with Thursday’s closing value of N95.857 trillion.

A total of 34 shares ended on the advancers’ chart, while 24 were on the laggards’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to close at N2.42, Union Dicon also jumped 10.00 per cent to N6.60, Tantalizers increased by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, Aluminium Extrusion improved by 9.78 per cent to N12.35, and Champion Breweries grew by 9.71 per cent to N16.95.

Conversely, Sovereign Trust Insurance dipped by 7.42 per cent to N3.87, Royal Exchange lost 6.84 per cent to trade at N1.77, Omatek slipped by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, Eunisell depreciated by 5.88 per cent to N80.00, and Eterna dropped 5.63 per cent to close at N28.50.

Yesterday, traders transacted 1.5 billion units worth N21.8 billion in 25,667 deals compared with the 839.8 million units sold for N32.8 billion in 23,211 deals in the preceding session, showing a surge in the trading volume by 76.61 per cent, an uptick in the number of deals by 10.58 per cent, and a shrink in the trading value by 33.54 per cent.

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Economy

FrieslandCampina, Two Others Erase N26bn from NASD OTC Bourse

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FrieslandCampina

By Adedapo Adesanya

Three stocks stretched the bearish run of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.21 per cent on Friday, December 19, with the market capitalisation giving up N26.01 billion to close at N2.121 billion compared with the N2.147 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 43.47 points to 3,546.41 points from 3,589.88 points.

The trio of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, and NASD Plc overpowered the gains printed by four other securities.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N6.00 to sell at N54.00 per unit versus N60.00 per unit, NASD Plc shrank by N3.50 to N58.50 per share from N55.00 per share, and CSCS Plc depleted by N2.91 to N33.87 per unit from N36.78 per unit.

On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc gained N1.01 to close at N13.00 per share versus N11.99 per share, Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 70 Kobo to N7.68 per unit from N6.98 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc added 39 Kobo to sell at N5.50 per share versus N5.11 per share, and IPWA Plc rose by 8 Kobo to 85 Kobo per unit from 77 Kobo per unit.

During the trading day, market participants traded 1.9 million securities versus the previous day’s 30.5 million securities showing a decline of 49.3 per cent. The value of trades went down by 64.3 per cent to N80.3 million from N225.1 million, but the number of deals jumped by 32.1 per cent to 37 deals from 28 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc finished the session as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units traded for N4.9 billion.

The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was still InfraCredit Plc with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.

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