Economy
Oil Prices Dip Further on Glut Worries, US-China Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices were down on Monday as investors weighed a potential global glut, with US-China trade tensions adding to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand.
Brent crude futures depleted by 28 cents or 0.46 per cent to trade at $61.01 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures lost 2 cents or 0.03 per cent to close at $57.52 per barrel.
The decline was the lowest for the two crude oil grades since early May as oil traders’ concerns have shifted from under-supply to over-supply.
Market analysts noted that glut fears are now descending onto the market, particularly looking forward into 2026, with current crude futures loadings now trading below those for later loading, a structure known as contango. Previously, the market had been in backwardation, which is where prompt prices trade at a premium to later supply.
This encourages traders to pay for storing oil so it can be sold at higher prices when supplies are expected to have shrunk in the future.
Last week, prices fell 2 per cent marking their third consecutive weekly decline, partly due to the International Energy Agency’s outlook for a growing supply glut in 2026.
Outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, expands its prediction of a 2026 surplus from about 3.3 million barrels per day last month. Analysts noted that a surplus of 4 million barrels per day would be equal to almost 4 per cent of world demand.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other allies (OPEC+) have also decided to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled and the extra supply is adding to fears of a glut and weighing on oil prices this year.
Pressure comes as the world’s two top oil consumers, the US and China, have renewed their trade war, imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them which could disrupt global freight flows.
While President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a very strong trade deal with President Xi, underlying frictions remain unresolved, including on tariffs, technology access, and supply-chain issues. These unresolved matters continue to cloud China’s economic outlook and, by extension, oil demand.
China’s crude oil flows also signal softness, with imports in September falling to about 11.5 million barrels per day, the lowest level since January, and refinery throughput climbing which reduces the spare capacity for imports and stock-building.
Also, uncertainty remains over what may happen with Russian oil supply, with President Trump hinting that the US would maintain “massive” tariffs on India unless it stops buying Russian oil.
Economy
NMDPRA Grants Six Petrol Import Permits to Stabilise Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has granted import permits for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol to six depot owners and petroleum marketers.
This step comes as the federal government moved to ensure stability and balance in the country’s downstream fuel sector after it was widely reported that the country suspended the issuance of petrol import licenses for a second straight month
The regulator recently issued these permits to six importers, with each authorised to import approximately 30,000 metric tonnes of the fuel into the country to help cushion against the effects of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
This development also occurs against the backdrop of ongoing discussions about supply concentration, with recent data showing that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied roughly 92 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol in February.
At present, the Dangote refinery is the sole facility in Nigeria producing petrol, while most modular refineries primarily focus on diesel output.
The Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria (CORAN) also confirmed that none have been issued so far in March, signalling a shift towards prioritising local output. However, this has since changed, spurred by the latest development.
Industry statistics show that local refining provided an average of about 36.5 million litres per day that month, with imports adding roughly 3 million litres daily, resulting in a total supply of around 39.5 million litres per day.
According to reports, until recently, no petrol import permits had been issued under the current NMDPRA leadership, suggesting that the new approvals signal a deliberate policy shift to preserve supply diversity and adaptability as the domestic market continues to develop.
Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, down from 60.2 million litres in January.
In February, the Dangote Refinery supplied 36.5 million litres of petrol and 8 million litres of diesel to the local market, leaving a daily deficit of 20 million litres that was covered by previously imported stock.
According to NMDPRA, these volumes were sufficient, leading to its earlier decision to withhold import licenses.
Economy
State Visit: CPPE, LCCI Urge Tinubu to Pursue Trade Expansion with UK
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) have called for trade expansion ahead of President Bola Tinubu’s state visit to the United Kingdom.
In separate communications, the organisations urged President Tinubu to deepen economic ties as he visits the UK on the invitation of the King of England, King Charles III. His state visit to the UK next week will mark Nigeria’s first such visit to the UK in 37 years, when Military President Ibrahim Babangida was head of state.
The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, said the planned visit by Mr Tinubu to the UK is significant on multiple fronts.
“At a time of shifting global alliances and economic realignments, the visit presents both opportunity and responsibility.
“It is expected that leading Nigerian business figures will accompany the President, creating a platform for expanding trade flows, deepening investment partnerships, promoting Nigeria as a destination for capital, and strengthening financial-sector linkages.
“The UK remains a major source of portfolio flows, development finance, and private-sector investment into Nigeria. Structured engagements during the visit could unlock opportunities in infrastructure, energy, financial services, technology, manufacturing, and agribusiness,” Mr Yusuf stated.
On her part, the Director General of the LCCI, Mrs Chinyere Almona, noted that the visit represents a historic opportunity to recalibrate Nigeria–UK relations from traditional diplomacy to focused economic diplomacy.
“At a time when Nigeria is implementing bold macroeconomic reforms, this visit should be leveraged to secure concrete commitments on trade expansion, long-term investment, and cooperation on the business environment.
“From the perspective of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the overriding objective should be to translate goodwill into measurable economic outcomes that strengthen Nigeria’s productive base and export capacity,” she said.
According to her, recent data underscore the strategic importance of the UK to Nigeria’s economy, noting that in Q3 2025, Nigeria recorded capital importation of approximately US$6.01 billion, representing a significant year-on-year surge.
“Notably, the United Kingdom emerged as Nigeria’s largest source of capital inflows, accounting for about US$2.94 billion, or nearly half of total inflows during the quarter. These inflows were driven predominantly by portfolio investment, particularly into the financial and banking sectors, reflecting renewed foreign investor confidence following Nigeria’s macroeconomic adjustments.
“On the trade front, total trade in goods and services between Nigeria and the UK stood at approximately £8 billion in the 12 months to mid-2025,” she said.
She said, however, that the relationship remains structurally imbalanced, with UK exports to Nigeria significantly exceeding Nigeria’s exports to the UK.
“Ultimately, the economic agenda of this state visit should be guided by Nigeria’s most pressing challenges: export diversification, inflation-induced cost pressures, infrastructure deficits, and the need for stable long-term capital,” Mrs Almona said in an interview with Nairametrics.
Economy
Preference for Foreign Currencies in Domestic Transactions Threat to Financial System—EFCC
By Dipo Olowookere
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has frowned on the use of foreign currencies for financial transactions in Nigeria, saying this could disrupt the nation’s stability.
The acting Zonal Director of the agency in Ilorin, Mrs Victoria Ugo-Ali, informed the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that the EFCC chairman, Mr Ola Olukoyede, is determined to curb the increasing preference for foreign currencies in domestic transactions, describing the practice “as a serious threat to the stability of the nation’s financial system.”
Speaking during a courtesy visit to the Branch Controller of the Ilorin Branch of the central bank, Mr Monga Muhammed, on Tuesday, Mrs Ugo-Ali noted that “many economic and financial crimes are perpetrated through financial institutions,” stressing the importance of timely intelligence and reports on suspicious transactions.
She called on the apex bank to continue providing the commission with relevant financial intelligence that would aid investigations and help curb money laundering and other financial crimes.
She also reiterated that the growing preference for foreign currencies in local transactions undermines the value of the naira and weakens public confidence in the national currency.
In his response, Mr Muhammed commended the Zonal Director and the management team of the EFCC for the visit, promising to sustain and deepen the already cordial relationship between the two organisations.
He described the engagement as the first of its kind and expressed optimism that it would further strengthen the cooperation between both institutions.
“At our end here, we will continue to partner with you because we carry out complementary functions. While your duty is to tackle economic and financial crimes, our responsibility, primarily as the apex bank, is to stabilise the economy and regulate financial institutions. We will not fail in that regard,” he said.
The CBN Branch Controller further disclosed that the apex bank had put several measures in place to address naira abuse and the dollarisation of the economy.
According to him, the CBN has the capacity to track currency in circulation and would not hesitate to apply appropriate sanctions against individuals or organisations found trading illegally in the nation’s currency.
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