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Oil Prices Spike as Israel, Hezbollah Violate New Ceasefire Deal

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oil prices driving up Trump

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices surged on Thursday after Israel and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah traded accusations that their ceasefire had been violated, and as Israel tanks fired on south Lebanon.

This pushed Brent crude futures higher by 30 cents or 0.4 per cent to $73.13 per barrel as the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 23 cents 0.3 per cent to trade at $68.93 a barrel.

However, trading was thin because of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

The market had expected that the ceasefire would cool some risk but Israel’s military said the ceasefire was violated after what it called suspects, some in vehicles, arrived at several areas in the southern zone.

The deal, which took effect on Wednesday, was intended to allow people in both countries to start returning to homes in border areas after 14 months of fighting.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) delayed a crucial meeting for a few days, which is likely to extend production cuts.

The group pushed its next policy meeting to Thursday, December 5 from December 1 to avoid a conflict with another event.

Members were discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, to help prop up prices.

It will also be the last meeting that the 22-member group will hold before Donald Trump will assume office as the next US President in January.

There are expectations of potential risk to Iran’s supply from sanctions that might be implemented under the Trump administration.

The group pumps about half the world’s oil but has maintained production cuts to support prices. It hopes to unwind those cuts, but weak global demand has forced it to delay the start of gradual increases.

Slowing fuel demand growth in top consumers the US and China has weighed heavily on oil prices this year, although supply curtailments from OPEC+ have helped to limit the losses.

This was seen as US petrol stocks rose 3.3 million barrels in the week ended on November 22, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Seplat Targets Oil Production of 120,000bpd in Six Months

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Seplat Energy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Seplat Energy plans to increase its crude oil production by 140 per cent from about 50,000 barrels a day to roughly 120,000 barrels per day over the next six months, a top executive management disclosed this in a series of interviews with the Financial Times.

Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in October 2024 approved Seplat’s acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil as part of a series of approvals.

The completion of the $1.28 billion Seplat-ExxonMobil deal has created Nigeria’s leading independent energy company, with the enlarged company having equity in 11 blocks (onshore and shallow water Nigeria); 48 producing oil and gas fields; 5 gas processing facilities; and 3 export terminals.

The acquisition of the entire issued share capital of MPNU adds the following assets to the Seplat Group: 40 per cent operated interest in OML 67, 68, 70 and 104; 40 per cent operated interest in the Qua Iboe export terminal and the Yoho FSO; 51 per cent operated interest in the Bonny River Terminal (‘BRT’) NGL recovery plant; 9.6 per cent participating interest in the Aneman-Kpono field; and approximately 1,000 staff and 500 contractors will transition to the Seplat Group.

“The assets have had very minimal investments until now,” the oil major’s chief financial officer, Mrs Eleanor Adaralegbe, told the newspaper.

“We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further,” she added.

The company also plans to revive hundreds of Nigerian oil wells laying fallow, which according to Seplat’s chief executive, Mr Roger Brown, will be done in a collaborative effort with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited as legally mandated in the country’s oil and gas industry.

“We have no concerns working with NNPC . . . There’s been a massive change with President Tinubu, realising that production is a great way of getting dollars into the country and supporting the currency,” Mr Brown said.

This was backed up by Seplat’s chief operating officer, Mr Samson Ezugworie, who noted that some of the assets will require time and investment so they can begin to produce again after being left idle.

“We have over 600 wells drilled and barely 200 of them are producing. We have significant idle wells that need to be rejuvenated and brought back into production within a short period of time.”

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Economy

Nigeria’s External Debt Servicing Costs Jump 38% in Nine Months

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Debts

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s external debt servicing costs surged by 38 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The surge translated to Nigeria’s apex bank spending a whopping $3.53 billion to service the country’s debts, indicating a $970 million jump compared to $2.56 billion during the same period in 2023.

This was contained in CBN’s International Payment Data published on its website.

The increase underscored the intensifying fiscal pressures facing Nigeria’s economy amid dwindling revenues, inflationary pressures, and currency depreciation.

A month-by-month analysis highlighted the scale of the challenge and showed that in January 2024, Nigeria spent $560.52 million on external debt servicing, marking a sharp increase from $112.35 million in January 2023.

February 2024 followed with $283.22 million, slightly below the $288.54 million recorded the previous year.

March 2024 showed a decline, with $276.17 million spent, compared to $400.47 million in March 2023, a 31 per cent drop.

In April 2024, debt servicing rose to $215.20 million, a 132 per cent increase, compared to $92.85 million in April 2023.

May 2024 saw the highest monthly expenditure of $854.37 million, a staggering 287 per cent jump from $221.05 million in May 2023.

By contrast, June 2024 recorded $50.82 million, slightly lower than the $54.36 million spent in June 2023.

The mid-year trend showed mixed movements as debt servicing fell to $542.50 million in July 2024, a 15 per cent decline from $641.69 million in July 2023.

August 2024 followed a similar trajectory, with $279.95 million spent compared to $309.96 million the previous year, a 10 per cent reduction.

However, September 2024 marked an increase, with $515.81 million spent, up 17 per cent from $439.06 million in September 2023.

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Economy

Senate to Likely Pass N49.7trn 2025 Budget January 31

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N6.2trn Supplementary Budget

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Mr Adeola Olamilekan, has confirmed January 31, 2025, as a provisional date for the passage of Nigeria’s 2025 budget as the committee prepares to begin budget defence today (Tuesday).

He made this disclosure on Monday during a meeting with the chairmen of relevant committees on the template for the 2025 Budget Defence Session to guide the budget process towards its eventual signing into law.

Mr Olamilekan further revealed that upon the resumption of plenary by January 14, 2025, the Senate would immediately commence a two-week break for the seamless continuation of the budget defence process.

He equally revealed a planned retreat on Thursday on the budget consideration which will involve ministries, departments and agencies, civil society organisations, and other stakeholders in the polity for further consultation and insight into the content of the budget proposal.

According to the timetable, from January 15 to 18, the committees are expected to submit reports of their documents, after which collation and tiding of documents by the Appropriation Committee.

Acknowledging the limited timeframe, Mr Olamilekan emphasised the need for lawmakers to intensify their efforts, urging his colleagues to forgo their holidays and begin immediate work on the proposed budget estimate, underscoring the importance of timely and efficient handling of the budget process within the stipulated timeframe.

In a related development, the House of Representatives is to commence the defence for the 2025 appropriation bill by Ministries Departments and Agencies on Tuesday.

The chairman House Committee on Appropriation, Mr Abubakar Bichi, revealed this on Monday after a meeting with chairmen of statutory committees at the House of Representatives.

President Bola Tinubu on December 18, 2024 presented the N49.7 trillion Budget Proposal for 2025 before a joint session of the National Assembly, with security and defence, infrastructure, health and education topping the allocations.

The President listed some of the highlights of the budget as defence and security – N4.91 trillion, infrastructure – N4.06 trillion, health – N2.4 trillion, education – N3.5 trillion, among others.

The budget will likely cross N50 trillion upon review by the National Assembly, making it the largest yet the country has ever had since self rule began in 1960.

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