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OPEC Mulls Further Cuts: What Does This Mean for Nigeria?

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By Adedapo Adesanya

One of the greatest challenges currently facing the Nigerian economy is the dwindling prices of crude oil, which, using the Brent Crude standard, traded around the $54 dollar mark, $3 below the $57 per barrel benchmark set in the 2020 Budget.

Already, the country is faced with challenges regarding the contribution of the commodity to the country’s revenue and the new talks about the possibility of further production cap by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on its members, including Nigeria, may further worsen the situation for Africa’s largest oil producer.

OPEC is considering this new measure as a result of the effect of the deadly coronavirus on prices of crude oil at the global market. It is believed that if the volume of crude oil production is reduced, prices will pick up again.

At the OPEC meeting with allies led by Russia in Vienna, Austria in December last year, Nigeria had pledged with other members of the cartel to contribute to the 500,000 barrels per day cut to bring down production to 1.7 million barrels till the end of March.

However, with the continuous impact of the coronavirus from China, one of Nigeria’s crude destinations, it is evident that there might be more aggressive oil output cuts of up to one million barrels than previously considered, after reviewing new data on Tuesday that showed coronavirus’ deepening impact on global oil demand, officials at the cartel said.

The impact would be felt by Nigeria if oil prices don’t go up to at least $65 despite cuts because this would mean that at the current 1.774 million barrels per day (bpd) cap, Nigeria may be forced to produce lower volume of oil, which could lead the country’s economy into another recession and shortage of foreign exchange, which is affecting the nation’s external reserves, currently below $38 billion.

In the 2020 budget, Nigeria put its average crude oil production at 2.18 million barrels per day at $57 per barrel.

Market analysts noted that OPEC and a 10-nation group of allies led by Russia had initially considered cutting 500,000 barrels a day, but a handful of scenarios up for discussions at the gathering on Tuesday foresee a need for much larger production cuts.

The virus, which originated in the Wuhan City of China last year, has already contributed to a sharp decrease in demand for crude, driving oil prices further down the budget cap of many countries, and with this OPEC officials are set to issue recommendations at the meeting scheduled for both Tuesday, February 4 and Wednesday, February 5. Following whatever recommendation is given, a final decision then would come after OPEC and its allies meet next week.

On Tuesday, OPEC’s research department presented two models with different estimates of how the virus may affect oil consumption. According to the models, the worst-case scenario estimated that if the virus lasts for six months, this could lead to about 400,000 barrels a day of demand, before a market rebound to pre-virus growth levels in the second half of the year.

However, if the cartel were to maintain its current output reductions throughout that period, there would be a surplus of 600,000 barrels a day in the first quarter and 1 million in the second, the analysis showed.

While a recommendation has not been reached, oil prices on Wednesday morning have resumed pointing north with the Brent Crude closer to $55 per barrel while and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which fell below $50 was trading at $50.45 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly

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By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.

Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.

At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.

In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.

Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.

“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”

The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.

Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.

He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.

“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.

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Economy

PenCom Extends Deadline for Pension Recapitalisation to June 2027

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.

This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.

Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.

“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.

She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”

The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.

“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.

PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.

The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.

The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.

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Economy

Three Securities Sink NASD Exchange by 0.68%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.

According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.

At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.

Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.

Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.

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