Economy
S&P Says Nigeria’s External Debt Moderate, Affirms Ratings
By Dipo Olowookere
Despite some local key stakeholders in the Nigerian economy raising alarm on the rate of the countrys foreign debts, a renowned global rating agency, Standard and Poors (S&P Global Ratings), has said there is no cause for alarm.
In a statement issued last Friday, S&P said though Nigeria’s economic performance remains weak, its external debt is moderate.
However, the agency said fiscal consolidation would be key in the period ahead as President Muhammadu Buhari remains in office for another four year, noting that this should give him administration another opportunity to strengthen economic policy framework and consolidate public finances.
Consequently, S&P announced that it is affirming its ‘B/B’ sovereign credit ratings and ‘ngA/ngA-1’ Nigeria national scale ratings on Nigeria, with a stable outlook. It also affirmed the long- and short-term Nigeria national scale ratings at ‘ngA/ngA-1’.
It was stressed that the stable outlook balances the risks associated with Nigeria’s still-weak economy against its moderate external debt and external buffers.
However, S&P said it may lower the ratings if Nigeria’s international reserves decline markedly, with the external debt rising much faster than currently expected.
“The ratings remain constrained, in our view, by the country’s low economic wealth, weak institutional capacity, and lower real GDP per capita trend growth rates than peers at similar development levels,” the statement obtained by Business Post said.
The rating firm said the Africa’s largest economy is growing more slowly than that of peers that have similar wealth levels, with a relative political stability, having experienced uninterrupted democratic transitions.
“However, we regard its institutions as weak and policy predictability as low. Fiscal budgets are frequently passed well after the year has begun, which impedes the government’s responsiveness to economic challenges,” it noted.
S&P pointed out the inability of the largely centralized federal government to redistribute wealth and spread power, to some extent, raising concerns on the security risks from Boko Haram in the northeast and the sporadic attacks on oil pipelines in the Niger Delta region of the country.
The rating agency noted that GDP per capita has been negative and debt-servicing costs absorb at least 30 percent of the country’s fiscal revenues, which constrains its fiscal flexibility.
Nigeria is a sizable producer of hydrocarbons. The oil sector’s direct share of nominal GDP is officially estimated at about 10%, but oil and gas account for over 90% of exports and at least half of fiscal revenues.
Economic data released by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics show that Nigeria’s economy grew by 1.9% during 2018, based on improving performance in non-oil sectors as well as rising oil prices.
Agriculture, manufacturing, and services (which comprise the transport, information, communication, and technology sectors) have helped the economy grow faster in 2018 than the 1% it achieved in 2017.
“In our view, the increase in the availability of foreign currency and the flexible exchange rate have helped the non-oil sector grow.
“That said, average oil production is close to 2 million barrels per day and we forecast that oil prices will decline over 2019 and 2020.
“Low oil prices are likely to present fiscal pressures and limit growth, stimulating government expenditure.
“In the medium term, we expect improvements in the non-oil sector to support our forecast of economic growth rising to at least 2% in real terms.
“However, when we use 10-year weighted-average growth rates to estimate real per capita GDP growth, we calculate that the real economy is shrinking by 0.7% a year, well below the economic performance of peers that have similar wealth levels,” the statement said.
It was further disclosed that the nation’s net external debt is likely to increase over 2019-2022 if fiscal financing remains externally funded and external buffers stay at current levels, saying that after the elections, Nigeria could consolidate its fiscal position if it increases non-oil revenues while moderating capital spending.
Although oil revenues support the economy when prices are high, they expose Nigeria to significant volatility in terms of trade and government revenues.
Consequently, Nigeria’s trade balance is significantly affected by changes in the price of oil. Nigeria also consistently runs substantial deficits on the service and income balances, the rating company stated.
It stressed that the most consistently supportive feature of Nigeria’s current account is the surplus on net transfers, largely based on diaspora remittances by Nigerians living abroad.
In 2018, oil prices increased by close to 30%, boosting Nigeria’s export revenues. However, imports of goods and services surged at the same time.
“We estimate that the current account surplus in 2018 may be only 2% of GDP; in 2017, when oil prices were lower and imports were compressed, it reached 3% of GDP.
“Over 2019-2022, we assume that oil prices will decline, which will reduce export revenues. We also expect imports to moderate, albeit more slowly.
“Our overall forecast of the current account is a near balance, averaging -0.4% over 2019-2022. We now estimate gross external financing needs will average close to 100% of current account receipts (CARs) plus usable reserves during 2019-2022,” it said.
According to S&P, government is likely to cover its external financing needs through a combination of concessional credit lines and the international capital markets.
As part of exchanging expensive domestic debt for cheaper foreign currency debt and general external financing needs, the government last year issued Eurobonds worth about $6 billion. The impact of rising net external debt in 2018 was moderated by improving foreign exchange reserves at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
“In 2019, we expect Nigeria’s government to issue further Eurobonds before moderating issuance levels in 2020-2022. We assume central bank reserves will remain at the current levels. The government drew down some of its savings in 2018 from the excess crude account (ECA). It was above $2 billion at the start of 2018, and is now estimated to be close to $1 billion.
“We add government savings from the ECA plus the Nigeria sovereign wealth fund (which stands at about $2 billion in 2019) to calculate public sector liquid external assets. We expect a reduction in external assets, combined with rising external indebtedness, to weaken Nigeria’s net external position.
“Therefore, we estimate narrow net external debt (external debt minus liquid external assets) will likely rise from an average of about 30% of CARs in 2018 to 45% over 2019-2022,” it said.
Although Nigeria produces an international investment position (external asset and liability position), our analysis of Nigeria’s external accounts is hampered by discrepancies in the data that average 20% of CARs. The discrepancies occur between changes in the external stocks and changes in the balance of payments.
Higher oil prices in 2018 have helped increase government revenue, largely offsetting weak non-oil revenue growth. However, projects requiring capital expenditure have been implemented more quickly and deficits remain at the state and local government levels.
“As a result, we project the general government deficit (which combines deficits at the federal, state, and local government levels) will remain above 3% of GDP this year,” it said.
“Our forecast shows oil prices declining and capital expenditure moderating after the election cycle. At the same time, a pick-up in non-oil economic activity should help grow non-oil revenues. These factors should help Nigeria consolidate its fiscal position, as headline deficits decline closer to 2% of
GDP by 2022. We estimate the annual change in net general government debt will average 2.65% of GDP in 2019-2022.
“In projecting the overall general government deficit, we exclude the clearance of fiscal arrears to contractors, suppliers, and lower levels of government that have yet to be reconciled. Fiscal arrears are estimated at 2%-3% of GDP.
“A plan to clear them by issuing debt securities denominated in Nigerian Naira in 2019 has been proposed–if the national assembly approves the plan, our deficit and debt projections could increase by the same margin.
“Overall, we forecast that Nigeria’s gross general government debt stock (consolidating debt at the federal, state, and local government levels) will average 26% of GDP for 2019-2022, which compares favourably with peer countries’ ratios. We also anticipate that general government debt, net of liquid assets, will average close to 20% of GDP in 2019-2022,” the statement disclosed.
The government created the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) to resolve the nonperforming loan assets of Nigerian banks.
“We include its debt, which comprised about 3% of GDP in 2019, in our calculations of gross and net debt. Over 70% of government debt is denominated in naira, which limits exchange rate risk,” it added.
Despite the relatively low amount of government debt, the cost of servicing it is relatively high, as a percentage of revenue, because of the high coupon on local currency treasury bills and bonds.
“In our view, the high debt-servicing costs–projected to remain over 40% of revenue at the central government level–limit fiscal flexibility.
“We project average debt-servicing costs for 2019-2022 of 30% of general government revenues. This represents a steep increase from just 10% in 2014. Not only are oil revenues lower than they were in 2014, borrowing costs in the domestic market have also risen. To reduce its borrowing costs, the government has borrowed externally to fund maturing short-term domestic debt obligations.
“We assess the exchange rate regime as a managed float. The CBN currently operates multiple exchange rate windows. The main exchange rate windows are the official CBN rate for government transactions, CBN window for banks and manufacturing companies, and the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing Mechanism (Nafex) window for all other autonomous transactions. Apart from the official rate, all other rates have converged to the Nafex window, averaging N362 to $1 in 2018. We do not expect any policy decision to merge the various exchange rate windows,” the statement stressed.
With the country’s inflation declining, although still high at an average of 12% in 2018, down from 16.5% in 2017, S%P anticipates that it will fall further to 10% in 2019, and average around 9% over the medium term.
It said good performance in agriculture has helped by increasing crop outputs and the food supply. Lower food prices, combined with lower oil prices and a stable exchange rate, has kept import costs stable and relatively low.
“The banking sector has been operating under difficult economic and regulatory circumstances. We still consider the Nigerian banking sector to be in a correction phase. It suffered high credit losses of 2.5%-3% over the past two years and we expect flat or negative credit growth in 2019-2020.
“That said, the banking sector has stabilized since the 2016 oil price shock–we think material change unlikely in the next 12-24 months. We also expect profitability at the top-tier banks to remain resilient to the credit cycle.
“In 2018, Nigerian banks implemented International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9 using their regulatory risk reserves, thus shielding their capital ratios from breaching the minimum capital requirements,” it noted.
Economy
Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Add More Products to Export Basket
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, has urged the country to broaden its export basket beyond raw materials by embracing ideas, innovation and the production of more value-added and complex products
Mr Adedeji said this during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, on Thursday.
The NRS chairman, in the lecture entitled From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy, revealed that Nigeria experienced stagnation in its export drive over three decades, from 1998 to 2023, and added only six new products to its export basket during that period.
He stressed the need to rethink growth through the lens of complexity by not just producing more of the same stuff, lamenting that Nigeria possesses a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, as well as lacking “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” he said in a statement by his special adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi.
Mr Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the world by comparative studies of success and failure, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil.
“We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.
“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.
“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities,” he stated, adding that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.
“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products,” the taxman stated.
He added that President Bola Tinubu has already begun the difficult work of rebuilding the economy, building collective knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.
Economy
Nigeria Inaugurates Strategy to Tap into $7.7trn Global Halal Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Thursday inaugurated Nigeria’s National Halal Economy Strategy to tap into the $7.7 trillion global halal market and diversify its economy.
President Tinubu, while inaugurating the strategy, called for disciplined, inclusive, and measurable action for the strategy to deliver jobs and shared prosperity across the country.
Represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, he described the unveiling of the strategy as a signal of Nigeria’s readiness to join the world in grabbing a huge chunk of the global halal economy already embraced by leading nations.
“As well as to clearly define the nation’s direction within the market, is expected to add an estimated $1.5 billion to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. It is with this sense of responsibility that I formally unveil the Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy.
“This document is a declaration of our promise to meet global standards with Nigerian capacity and to convert opportunity into lasting economic value. What follows must be action that is disciplined, inclusive, and measurable, so that this Strategy delivers jobs, exports, and shared prosperity across our nation.
“It is going to be chaired by the supremely competent Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.”
The president explained that the halal-compliant food exports, developing pharmaceutical and cosmetic value chains would position Nigeria as a halal-friendly tourism destination, and mobilising ethical finance at scale,” by 2030.
“The cumulative efforts “are projected to unlock over twelve billion dollars in economic value.
“While strengthening food security, deepening industrial capacity, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium-sized enterprises across our states,” he added.
Allaying concerns by those linking the halal with religious affiliation, President Tinubu pointed out that the global halal economy had since outgrown parochial interpretations.
“It is no longer defined solely by faith, but by trust, through systems that emphasise quality, traceability, safety, and ethical production. These principles resonate far beyond any single community.
“They speak to consumers, investors, and trading partners who increasingly demand certainty in how goods are produced, financed, and delivered. It is within this broader understanding that Nigeria now positions itself.”
Tinubu said many advanced Western economies had since “recognised the commercial and ethical appeal of the halal economy and have integrated it into their export and quality-assurance systems.”
President Tinubu listed developed countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
“They are currently among the “leading producers, certifiers, and exporters of halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and financial products.”
He stated that what these developed nations had experienced is a confirmation of a simple truth, that “the halal economy is a global market framework rooted in standards, safety, and consumer trust, not geography or belief.”
The president explained that the Nigeria national halal economy strategy is the result of careful study and sober reflection.
He added that it was inspired by the commitment of his administration of “to diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment, and create sustainable jobs across the federation.
“It is also the product of deliberate partnership, developed with the Halal Products Development Company, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund.
“And Dar Al Halal Group Nigeria, with technical backing from institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa.”
The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said the inauguration of the strategy was a public-private collaboration that has involved extensive interaction with stakeholders.
Mrs Oduwole, who is the Chairperson, National Halal Strategy Committee, said that the private sector led the charge in ensuring that it is a whole-of-government and whole-of-country intervention.
The minister stressed that what the Halal strategy had done for Nigeria “is to position us among countries that export Halal-certified goods across the world.
The minister said, “We are going to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to ensure that we export our Halal-friendly goods to the rest of Africa and beyond to any willing markets; participation is voluntary. “
She assured that as the Chairperson, her ministry would deliver on the objectives of the strategy for the prosperity of the nation.
The Chairman of Dar Al-Halal Group Nigeria L.td, Mr Muhammadu Dikko-Ladan, explained that the Halal Product Development Company collaborated with the group in developing the strategy.
“In addition to the strategy, an export programme is underway involving the Ministry of Trade and Investment, through which Nigerian companies can be onboarded into the Saudi Arabian market and beyond.£
Mr Dikko-Ladan described the Strategy as a landmark opportunity for Nigeria, as it creates market access and attracts foreign direct investment.
Economy
UK, Canada, Others Back New Cashew Nut Processing Plant Construction in Ogun
By Adedapo Adesanya
GuarantCo, part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), has provided a 100 per cent guarantee to support a $75 million debt facility for Robust International Pte Ltd (Robust) to construct a new cashew nut processing plant in Ogun State, Nigeria.
GuarantCo, under the PIDG is funded by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden and Canada, mobilises private sector local currency investment for infrastructure projects and supports the development of financial markets in lower-income countries across Africa and Asia.
Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest cashew producers of 300,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts annually, yet currently less than 10 per cent are processed domestically. Most raw nuts are exported unprocessed to Asian and other countries, forfeiting up to 80 per cent of their potential export value and adding exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations.
According to GuarantCo, this additional plant will more than double Robust’s existing cashew processing capacity from 100 metric tonnes per day to 220 metric tonnes per day to help reduce this structural gap.
The new plant will be of extensive benefit to the local economy, with the procurement of cashew nuts from around 10,000 primarily low-income smallholder farmers.
There is an expected increase in export revenue of up to $335 million and procurement from the local supply chain over the lifetime of the guarantee.
Furthermore, the new plant will incorporate functionality to convert waste by-products into value-added biomass and biofuel inputs to enhance the environmental impact of the transaction.
It is anticipated that up to 900 jobs will be created, with as many as 78 per cent to be held by women. Robust also has a target to gradually increase the share of procurement from women farmers, from 15 per cent to 25 per cent by 2028, as it reaches new regions in Nigeria and extends its ongoing gender-responsive outreach programme for farmers.
Terms of the deal showed that the debt facility was provided by a Symbiotics-arranged bond platform, which in turn issued notes with the benefit of the GuarantCo guarantee. These notes have been subscribed to in full by M&G Investments. The transaction was executed in record time due to the successful replication of two recent transactions in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, again in collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics.
Speaking on the development, the British Deputy High Commissioner, Mr Jonny Baxter, said: “The UK is proud to support innovative financing that mobilises private capital into Nigeria’s productive economy through UK-backed institutions such as PIDG. By backing investment into local processing and value addition, this transaction supports jobs, exports and more resilient agricultural supply chains. Complementing this, through the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnerships and the Developing Countries Trading Scheme, the UK is supporting Nigerian businesses to scale exports to the UK and beyond, demonstrating how UK-backed partnerships help firms grow and compete internationally.”
Mr Dave Chalila, Head of Africa and Middle East Investments at GuarantCo, said: “This transaction marks GuarantCo’s third collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics, emphasising our efforts to bring replicability to everything we do so that we accelerate socio-economic development where it matters most. The transaction is consistent with PIDG’s mandate to mobilise private capital into high-impact, underfinanced sectors. In this case, crowding in institutional investors in the African agri-processing value chain.
“As with the two recent similarly structured transactions, funding is channelled through the Symbiotics institutional investor platform, with the notes externally rated by Fitch and benefiting from a rating uplift due to the GuarantCo guarantee.”
Adding his input, Mr Vishanth Narayan, Group Executive Director at Robust International Group, said: “As a global leader in agricultural commodities, Robust International remains steadfast in its commitment to building resilient, ethical and value-adding supply chains across origin and destination markets. This transaction represents an important step in advancing our long-term strategy of strengthening processing capabilities, deepening engagement with farmers and enhancing local value addition in the regions where we operate. Through sustained investment, disciplined execution and decades of operating experience, we continue to focus on delivering reliable, high-quality products while fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth.”
For Ms María Redondo, director at M&G Investments, “The guarantee gives us the assurance to invest in hard currency, emerging market debt, while supporting Robust’s new cashew processing plant in Nigeria. It’s a clear example of how smart credit enhancement can unlock institutional capital for high-impact development and manage currency and credit risks effectively. This is another strong step in channelling institutional capital into meaningful, on‑the‑ground growth.”
Also, Ms Valeria Berzunza, Structuring & Arranging at Symbiotics, said: “We are pleased to continue our collaboration with M&G Investments, GuarantCo, and now with Robust through a transaction with a strong social and gender focus, demonstrating that well-structured products can boost commercially attractive, viable, and impactful investments.”
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