Economy
Sub-Saharan African Economy to lose 3.5%—Reuters
By Adedapo Adesanya
As the world faces an imminent global recession due to disruptions brought about by the coronavirus pandemic, a new Reuters poll has suggested that Sub-Saharan Africa will face a 3.5 per cent contraction this year.
Following months of lockdowns, which have muted economic activity, a Reuters poll taken in the past week suggested the region will contract that much in 2020 but also projected that it will bounce back to around 3.5 per cent in 2021.
According to Reuters, “Some countries have begun relaxing restrictions but virus cases are still increasing, unlike in many developed countries that have started to show signs of recovery, so the uncertainty meant the range of forecasts for next year was wide – between flatlining and 4.8 per cent growth.”
Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria is expected to contract 3.7 per cent this year but will see a 2.0 per cent growth next year.
Meanwhile, South Africa which has reported the most cases in Africa is expected to contract by 8.0 per cent this year, adding to its recession woes. But it is expected to grow by 3.5 per cent next year.
Kenya, which is east Africa’s biggest economy, is expected to have a lacklustre performance this year with no growth. It considers this a poor outcome since Kenya averaged around 6 per cent annual growth in the past 10 years.
However, Ghana, one of the continents oil exporters, is still expected to grow, expanding by 1.9 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2021.
Reuters quoted Barclays economist, Mr Michael Kafe, as saying that “Despite the obvious downside risks from lower oil prices and headwinds from COVID-19, we believe Ghana has a decent growth outlook and reasonably comfortable external sector metrics relative to other African oil exporters.”
“The fallout from COVID-19 and associated lockdown mean GDP growth is likely to be weak this year.
“However, unlike other African oil exporters such as Angola, Gabon and Nigeria, where GDP growth is likely to contract this year, we expect Ghana to post positive GDP growth,” he added.
When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gauged the early impact of the coronavirus, it described it as a crisis like no other, emphasising that there is substantial uncertainty about its impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.
According to the global lender, a lot depends on the epidemiology of the virus, the effectiveness of containment measures, and the development of therapeutics and vaccines, all of which are hard to predict.
In addition, many countries now face multiple crises—a health crisis, a financial crisis, and a collapse in commodity prices, which interact in complex ways.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.
In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.
Recall that on August 5, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act ( NIIRA 2025).
This landmark legislation repeals the Insurance Act 2003, and consolidates related provisions, ushering in a modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.
The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.
According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.
NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.
“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.
The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.
The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.
This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.
This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.
Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.
He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.
Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.
On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.
Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.
“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”
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