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Economy

Supply Surplus Worries Weaken Oil Prices

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices were lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a supply surplus due to potential plans by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) for a larger output hike next month and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey.

Brent crude futures lost 95 cents or 1.4 per cent to trade at $67.02 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by $1.08 or 1.7 per cent to sell for $62.37 a barrel.

At its meeting next Sunday, OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, may speed up production increases in November from the 137,000 barrels per day hike it made for October, as its leader, Saudi Arabia, pushes to regain market share.

Eight members of OPEC+ could agree to raise production in November by 274,000-411,000 barrels per day , or two or three times higher than the October increase.

According to some sources, the increase could be as big as 500,000 barrels per day.  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ was considering accelerating its increases by 500,000 barrels per day. However, OPEC in a post on X said it rejected media reports for plans to raise output by 500,000 barrels per day, calling them inaccurate and misleading.

Market analysts noted that such a strategy could significantly squeeze margins for high-cost US shale producers, potentially forcing them to scale back the record-level output they’ve maintained.

Meanwhile, crude oil have started flowing through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in two-and-a-half years, after an interim deal broke a deadlock. As a result, additional supplies are weighing on market prices.

The market has remained cautious in recent weeks, balancing supply risks, which mainly arise from Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, with expectations of oversupply and weak demand.

Also, President Donald Trump won Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s support for a US-backed Gaza peace proposal, but the stance of Hamas was uncertain.

This could possibly see shipping traffic through the Suez Canal return to normal following a Gaza peace deal, which would remove a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium.

The market is also watching a potential risk of a US government shutdown has raised demand concerns

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by another 3.674 million barrels in the week ending September 30. This is on top of last week’s 3.821 million barrel draw. So far this year, net crude oil inventories are have swung to a loss this week of 2.22 million barrels.

Official data from the US Energy Administration (EIA) will be due later on Wednesday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Brent Climbs to $71 on Fears of US Military Action Against Iran

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of Brent crude oil grade went up by 0.14 per cent or 10 cents to $71.76 per barrel on Friday as investors worried about US military action against Iran, as President Donald Trump presses the Islamic Republic to halt nuclear weapon development.

However, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade finished at $66.39 a barrel after going down by 4 cents or 0.06 per cent.

The market awaited developments in the struggle between Iran and the US after President Trump said, “We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen,” referring to Iran.

The main concern for the crude oil market is that military activity will lead to a supply disruption if Iran decides to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil consumption passes through that waterway. Conflict in the area could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices.

There is the fear that a potential US military campaign in Iran could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates.

Traders and investors ramped up purchases of call options on Brent crude in recent days, betting on higher prices.

Also supporting oil were reports of falling crude stocks and limited exports in the world’s biggest oil-producing and exporting countries. US crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed on Thursday.

Markets were also considering the impact of ample supply, with talks of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman will meet on March 1. The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Meanwhile, the oil market shrugged off a US Supreme Court decision ruling unconstitutional President Trump’s use of a law to levy tariffs in national emergencies.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Tinubu’s Executive Order on Oil, Gas Revenues

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has faulted the Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu on oil and gas revenues.

President Tinubu this week signed the Executive Order, titled The Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025), to safeguard and enhance oil and gas revenues for the Federation, curb wasteful spending, eliminate duplicative structures in the sector, and redirect resources for the benefit of the Nigerian people.

However, at a press conference in Abuja, PENGASSAN president, Mr Festus Osifo, argued that the tax incentives granted to oil companies by the President may not help in the reduction of cost if insecurity is not addressed.

“The Executive Order signed by the President yesterday is a direct attack on the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)—specifically Sections 8, 9, and 64,” Mr Osifo said.

“What the President has done is use an Executive Order to set aside a law of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is deeply troubling. What signal are we sending to investors and the international community?

“We are effectively telling them that the law of the land can be set aside by a simple executive decree. This is an aberration and should never have happened.”

According to a statement by the presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the President signed the EO in pursuance of Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Executive Order is anchored on Section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in, under, and upon any land in Nigeria—including its territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone—in the Government of the Federation.

The directive seeks to restore the constitutional revenue entitlements of the federal, state, and local governments, which were removed in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

According to Mr Onanuga, the PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost via deductions, sundry charges, and fees.

Under the current PIA framework, NNPC Limited retains 30 per cent of the Federation’s oil revenues as a management fee on Profit Oil and Profit Gas derived from Production Sharing Contracts, Profit Sharing Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts. Additionally, the company retains 20 per cent of its profits for working capital and future investments.

The federal government considers the additional 30 per cent management fee unjustified, as the 20 per cent retained earnings are already sufficient to support NNPC Limited’s functions under these contracts.

Moreover, NNPC Limited also retains another 30 per cent of profit oil and profit gas under the Frontier Exploration Fund, as stipulated in sections 9(4) and (5) of the PIA.

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Economy

Customs to Fast-Track Cargo Clearance at Lekki Deep Sea Port

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Mr Adewale Adeniyi, has unveiled a Green Channel initiative at the Lekki Deep Sea Port as part of efforts to simplify cargo clearance, reduce delays, and improve operational efficiency for port users.

The launch marks a major step in customs’ drive to enhance trade facilitation through technology and stakeholder collaboration.

Speaking at the event in Lagos, Mr Adeniyi said the initiative was introduced by the Lekki Deep Sea Port and approved by NCS management to address persistent challenges in container stacking and examination at major ports, which often slow cargo processing.

“This particular intervention helps to move containers right from the vessel into a dedicated place where customers can have access. And between the time the container moves from the vessel to this particular place, it is tracked,” he said.

The customs boss explained that the Green Channel is designed to ensure seamless cargo movement through a dedicated corridor with minimal bureaucratic obstacles, enabling faster turnaround time for importers and other stakeholders.

He described the initiative as a product of mutual trust between the agency and its stakeholders, stressing that compliance and cooperation are essential to its success.

“What we have done today is a product of the kind of trust that we have invested in our stakeholders and the confidence that we also have in them, that they would do this in the spirit of compliance and trade facilitation,” he said.

Mr Adeniyi added that beyond easing port operations, the Green Channel supports Nigeria’s broader economic objective of building a more competitive trade environment, noting that the initiative is expected to reduce the cost and time required to do business, ultimately boosting revenue generation for the service.

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