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Weakening Naira May Persist in 2023—AfDB

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weakening Naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is expected to continue facing a weakening Naira amid tightening global financial conditions, says a new report from the African Development Bank (AfDB).

This will be a worse-case scenario as African economies remain resilient with a stable outlook in the 2023-2024 fiscal year.

The report, Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) 2023, estimates Africa’s average GDP to stabilize at 4 per cent in the next two years, up from 3.8 per cent in 2022.

In a statement from the bank on Wednesday, this was presented on the sidelines of the recently concluded 36th African Union Assembly in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by the lender’s chief economist and vice president, Mr Kevin Urama.

He said that the continent could benefit from high demand for its commodities as countries seek alternatives for food and energy in response to disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine.

The continent, he noted, remains a treasure trove for smart investors globally, but it must strive for higher growth rates, more inclusive economies, and greater resilience to external shocks.

“The stable outlook projected for 2023–2024 reflects the continuing policy support in Africa, global efforts to mitigate the impact of external shocks and rising uncertainty in the global economy,” he said.

The new publication, to be released in the first and third quarters of each year, will provide African policymakers, global and domestic investors, researchers, and other development partners with an up-to-date, evidence-based assessment of the continent’s recent macroeconomic performance and short-to-medium-term outlook amid dynamic global economic developments.

Mr Urama urged bold policy actions. “To meet the significant financing gaps in Africa, it is imperative to enact policies that can mobilize and leverage private financing for development in Africa,” he said.

The unfavourable global conditions have led to rising inflation, higher debt servicing costs and increased risk of debt distress in developing countries, including Africa.

“As in many emerging market economies, tightening financial conditions and the appreciating US dollar have had dire consequences for most African economies,” Mr Urama said. It has also become difficult for African countries to access international capital markets for new financing, he added.

Most African currencies, especially in commodity-exporting countries, lost substantial value against the Dollar in 2022 due to monetary policy tightening in the United States. The depreciation rates ranged from 21 per cent in Malawi to 69 per cent in South Sudan.

Mr Urama cautioned that currency weaknesses in Africa’s more globally integrated economies, such as Algeria, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, may persist in 2023.

“Key drivers of the currency depreciations include the tightened global financial conditions and weak external demand, macroeconomic imbalances, constrained revenues and weak investment flows, and political risk aversion associated with countries’ election cycles,” Mr Urama said.

He said that African countries’ fiscal positions have already been stretched by COVID-19 policy responses and support for vulnerable populations against rising food and energy prices amid high debt and the impacts of climate change.

Other economic headwinds include the spillover effects of rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These conditions are pushing price stability beyond most central banks’ grasp.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria to Raise Output by 100,000 bpd to Offset Global Supply Shortfall

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, has said that Nigeria could increase oil production ​by about 100,000 barrels per day ‌over the next few months to realistically help the global shortfall.

Speaking with Reuters on the sidelines of the ongoing CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, the NNPC helmsman, when asked if Nigeria ​could help make up for the ​crude shortfall resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran, said the country was working towards it.

His comment comes as the war continued to rage on and affect crude prices as well as liquified natural gas (LNG), particularly due to the restrictions from the Strait of Hormuz.

The ​country averaged between 1.6 million barrels per day and ​1.7 million barrels per day last ⁠year and is hoping to average 1.8 ​million barrels per day this year, but has faced several challenges to production, mainly underinvestment and oil theft.

“We are ‌building ⁠that capacity,” he said, though he added, “We are not like Saudi Arabia,” referring to the top OPEC member. “But we can contribute.”

During an ​onstage interview ​at the ⁠conference, Mr Ojulari said NNPC completed a full portfolio review of ​its business last year and ​is ⁠beginning to implement changes this year.

He said a crucial focus that the state oil company is working on is to improve execution and ensure ⁠projects ​are delivered on budget ​and on time.

His comments followed the country recording a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February of 2026, according to an analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

According to the data, Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while output declined notably in February, with total production dropping to approximately 41.6 million barrels, bringing cumulative output for the two months to 92 million barrels.

Based on the government’s benchmark in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and 51.5 million barrels in February, to reach about 108.6 million barrels for the period.

The daily production averages provided in the NUPRC report further illustrated the extent of the gap. In January, total liquids output, according to the data, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.

In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.

According to the report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.

Crude oil production remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output in the period under review. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day, before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, dragging down overall output for the month.

On the other hand, condensate production, while significantly smaller in volume, provided some support to total output. It averaged just over 116,000 barrels per day in January and about 122,000 barrels per day in February.

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Economy

Sunbeth Exports 52,000 tonnes of Cocoa Out of Nigeria in 2025

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sunbeth

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the largest cocoa players in Nigeria, Sunbeth Global Concepts, which recently launched a N200 billion commercial paper programme, said it exported about 52,000 tonnes of cocoa out of the country in 2025.

The firm’s chief executive, Mr Olasunkanmi Owoyemi, in an interview with CNN, said the growth has been impressive despite the challenges of operating in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.

“Last year, we did around 52,000 tonnes of cocoa export out of Nigeria. And I mean that I remember when I started this business, when I bought 200 tonnes, I felt as though we are doing something great, but within eight years of doing 50,000 tonnes in over 50,000 tonnes in cocoa alone showed how much we’ve grown, how much people we’ve brought in, how much people have been able to contribute to our progress,” he said on CNN Marketplace hosted by Ms Zain Asher.

The latest edition of the programme focuses on the country’s agricultural sector, especially how the players have been navigating the challenges.

Mr Owoyemi said one of the major challenges of operating in Nigeria’s agricultural sector is “getting people to move back to the productive sector.”

“For us as a business, our vision is to empower the origin producers of food ingredients, products with the financing structure, logistics, markets, and education and technology. It’s a massive challenge and needs a massive scale of financing, massive scale of research, and technology.

“This challenge being resolved alone can turn us easily from just producing to processing, consuming, and exporting the refined products and to enable intra-African trades to be a model for the world,” he noted.

Speaking on the importance of investing in future talent, he said, “The Sunbeth Excellence Partnership programme we use to reward and celebrate the best graduating students in the local universities in Nigeria, which involves cash gift and we integrate them into our system and take them to put them into expose them globally by taking them into courses, like executive programmes in one of the best universities in the world to let them understand it.”

For the Operations Manager of Rural Farmers Hub, Nanshal Silas, maintaining healthy soil is a challenge for an increasing number of farmers worldwide as agricultural demand continues to grow.

“Most times, farmers have a very big challenge. And this challenge is not far from their inability to understand what is happening in the soil. First of all, for a farmer to grow crops and to maximise profit, he or she must have in-depth knowledge,” Silas stated.

An Extensionist at the agri-tech company, Aishatu Shuaibu, said Rural Farmers Hub helps farmers with soil testing.

“I get to search for local farmers within communities. Then I take their soil coordinates. After taking the soil coordinates to know what they need in their soils, I guide them on what to apply, the fertiliser that is needed and the major procedure that is supposed to be taken for them to have a bountiful harvest,” Ms Shuaibu said.

An Agricultural Biotechnologist at Sheda Science and Technology Complex in Abuja, Dr Andrew Iloh, told CNN that, “One of the biggest challenges for every kind of technology is adaptation. Not just bringing the technology, but every other thing needs to work hand in hand so that agricultural productivity in Nigeria can be improved.”

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Economy

FG, States, LGs Receive N1.894tn from FAAC

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FAAC allocation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) at its March 2026 meeting, chaired by the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, shared the sum of N1.894 trillion from the N2.230 trillion earned in February to the three tiers of government.

From the stated amount, the federal government received N675.086 billion, the states got N651.525 billion, the local government councils were given N456.467 billion, while the oil-producing states shared N110.949 billion as 13 per cent of mineral revenue, with N77.302 billion taken for the cost of collection, and N259.078 billion for transfers, intervention and refunds (TIR).

In a communique issued by FAAC at the end of the meeting, Mr Edun disclosed that the gross revenue available from the Value Added Tax (VAT) for the month was N668.450 billion compared with N1.083 trillion distributed in the preceding month.

From this, N26.738 billion was used as the cost of collection, and N22.593 billion was deducted for TIR. The balance of N619.119 billion was distributed to the three tiers of government, with N61.912 billion going to the federal government, N340.515 billion to the state governments, and N216.692 billion to the councils.

It was disclosed that the gross statutory revenue for the month under review was N1.561 trillion, lower than N1.957 trillion received a month earlier by N395.138 trillion.

From the stated amount, N50.564 billion was allocated for the cost of collection and a total of N236.485 billion for TIR, while the remaining balance of N1.274 trillion was distributed as follows to the three tiers of government: federal government got N613.174 billion, the states received N311.010 billion, the local councils got N239.776 billion, and N110.949 billion was given to the oil-producting states.

Last month, oil and gas royalty and excise duty increased significantly, while Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Companies Income Tax and VAT decreased substantially. Import Duty and CET levies increased marginally.

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