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Why Investors Should SELL Unilever Nigeria, HOLD Dangote Sugar Stocks

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Dangote Sugar

By Dipo Olowookere

Recently, the boards of Unilever Nigeria Plc and Dangote Sugar Plc released their financial statements for the first half of this year and while the former recorded a poor performance, the latter was below expectations.

For Unilever Nigeria, its total revenue went down by 11.36 percent to N42.66 billion from N48.12 billion in H1 2018 as a result of the firm’s dismal performance of its Household and Personal Care (HPC) unit, which fell by 18.05 percent due to intense price discounting amongst brands in the sub sector.

According to Meristem Research, when in the second quarter of the year the company made an aggressive marketing effort with a partnership with Jumia on Everyday Essentials, things marginally improved as the business segments as the food and HPC grew by 6.31 percent and 9.03 percent respectively.

Meristem Research noted that, “On a general note, the downward trend in consumer purchasing power foretells a tough environment for FMCGs as companies utilise price discounting strategies and sales promotion to edge out one another.

“Especially, the dismal performance of the HPC segment continues to weigh on the revenue generation capability of the company. Hence, we project a revenue growth of -7.00 percent in 2019, resulting in absolute 2019FY revenues of N86.40 billion.

“Given our expectation of a 29 percent reduction in 2019FY net profits, we forecast 2019FY EPS of N1.10 and 2019 target PE of 20x implying a target price of N22. This portends a downside of 31.26 percent from the closing price of N32 on August 6, 2019, hence we rate the stock a SELL.”

For Dangote Sugar, the revenue generated by the company went down by 4.42 percent to N80.36 billion from N84.08 billion in H1 2018.

According to Meristem Research, the performance on a regional basis was mixed with the Lagos and West regions suffering declines of 9.30 percent and 28.31 percent respectively as a result of increased competition and market share grabbing by other market players while the North and East grew by 10.42 percent and 7.01 percent respectively.

“As stated in our Q1:2019 earnings note, the implementation of alternative logistics such as barges and third-party trucks in clearing raw materials from the ports and factory continues to yield positive results as revenues grew by 10.67 percent from N38.15 billion in Q1:2019 and the streak of negative YoY revenue growth narrowed down to 1.68 percent from 7.27 percent in Q1:2019.

“Following the release of H1:2019 results, the performance of the company continues to stay in line with our expectation and as such, we retain our projected 7 percent growth in sales volume over 2018, however, with a lower average price of N12,000, implying 2019FY revenues of N149.33bn.

“The outlook is bleak with an expectation of lower revenues and profits at the end of the year. Given this outlook, market risk and company’s idiosyncratic risks, we have revised our target PE and 2019 FY EPS down to 5.7x and N1.67 respectively from 6.5x and N1.85 in Q1:2019.

“This indicates a target price of N9.55 with a downside of 2.60 percent from the closing price of N9.80 on August 7, 2019. Hence, we place a HOLD rating on the stock.”

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Plans Cross-border Listing of Shares

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Dangote Refinery Crude Supply to Local Refineries

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, is planning to list shares of his $20 billion oil refinery on multiple African stock exchanges.

The landmark cross-border public offering on the continent was disclosed by the chief executive of the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), Mr Frank Mwiti, following a meeting held last week in Lagos between Mr Dangote and several heads of African exchanges.

Last year, Mr Dangote unveiled plans to list a 10 per cent stake in his Lagos-based refinery on the Nigerian Exchange this year.

According to a Bloomberg report, citing an email from the chief executive of FirstCap, Mr Ukandu Ukandu, Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, Vetiva Advisory Services Limited, and FirstCap Limited have been appointed as advisers for the initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.

Mr Mwiti said the proposed listing is designed to cut across multiple markets and deepen investor participation across the continent.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” he said.

Bloomberg also reported that a spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed that discussions had taken place between Mr Dangote and exchange officials but declined to provide further details.

In February 2026, Mr Dangote said that the IPO could be launched within the next five months.

“But individually Nigerians too will have an opportunity in the next maximum four or five months, they will actually be able to buy their shares,” he said at the time.

He added that investors would have flexibility in how they receive returns.

“People will have a choice either to get their dividends in naira or to get their dividends in dollars because we earn in Dollars.”

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Economy

Ellah Lakes Eyes Greater Efficiency Across Operations, Better Processing Throughput

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Ellah Lakes

By Dipo Olowookere

Efforts are being made to ensure the throughput of Ellah Lakes Plc is increased to deliver long-term value for shareholders, the chief executive of the organisation, Mr Chuka Mordi, has said.

Mr Mordi was reacting to the audited 17-month financial statements of the firm ended December 31, 2025, as it transitions to a December financial year-end to enhance comparability with industry peers.

This action is also to strengthen reporting discipline and align financial reporting with the agricultural operating cycle, from planting through harvest and processing, providing a more accurate reflection of the company’s operational performance.

In the period under review, Ellah Lakes recorded N146.66 million in revenue, driven by initial harvests and sales of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFBs), with the cash flows supporting operational stability as larger assets continue to mature.

However, the company suffered an operating loss of N3.84 billion, as the earnings per share (EPS) closed with a N1 loss.

Between July 2024 and December 2025, the organisation achieved a key operational milestone, with the commissioning of its upgraded 5-tonnes-per-hour crude palm oil mill in July 2025, strengthening its ability to process output internally and capture more value across its palm oil value chain as plantation maturity improves.

Also, it planted 17,000 seedlings and maintained 47,000 seedlings in the nursery, as part of a broader planting programme, supporting Ellah Lakes’ medium-term production pipeline and providing a stronger foundation for future output as more hectares move into productive phases.

“The 17-month period marks an important transition for Ellah Lakes as we progress from asset development into early-stage commercial operations.

“During the period, we commissioned our upgraded crude palm oil mill, advanced plantation development, and commenced pig farming activities, marking the beginning of revenue generation across our core value chains.

“While our reported results reflect the cost of expansion, start-up activities and non-recurring transaction-related expenses, they also establish the operational foundation required to scale the business.

“Our focus now is on improving yields from maturing plantations, increasing processing throughput, and driving greater efficiency across our operations. We remain committed to disciplined execution and capital stewardship as we work towards translating our asset base into stronger operating performance and long-term value for shareholders,” Mr Mordi stated.

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Economy

SEC Orders Asset Freeze on 13 Entities Over Terror Financing Links

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Investments and Securities Act 2025

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has ordered an immediate asset freeze on 13 entities allegedly linked to terrorism financing across the capital market.

A directive titled Commission’s sweeping compliance directive issued to capital market operators noted that the move was after the 10 individuals and three entities were designated and blacklisted on the Nigeria Sanctions List by the Nigeria Sanctions Committee.

The commission anchored its directive on provisions of the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022, which mandates the immediate freezing of all funds, assets, and economic resources linked to the named persons and organisations without prior notice.

The SEC stated that all Capital Market Operators (CMOs) and stakeholders have been notified that, pursuant to section 49 of the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022, the Nigeria Sanctions Committee has approved the addition of entries and entities subject to asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo.

“The directive to free accounts and halt all transactions with the flagged entities is binding on all capital market operators and stakeholders, with strict reporting and compliance obligations, including: immediate identification and freezing of all assets linked to designated individuals and entities without prior notification. Mandatory reporting of frozen assets and attempted transactions to the Nigeria Sanctions Committee Secretariat.”

Details accompanying the designation reveal that several of the individuals were convicted by the Abu Dhabi Federal Court of Appeal in April 2019 for terrorism financing activities linked to Boko Haram.

The offences largely involved the alleged collection of funds in Dubai and transferring them to Nigeria to support terrorist operations. Sentences ranged from 10 years imprisonment to life sentences, underscoring the severity of the offences.

“This highlights a pattern where corporate vehicles are used as channels for financial flows, reinforcing the need for heightened scrutiny of business entities within the financial system.

“The SEC also emphasised that the asset-freezing mechanism is preventive rather than punitive, designed to disrupt financial support systems for terrorism before funds can be deployed.

“The implications for non-compliance are severe, including both civil and criminal liabilities, as well as reputational damage for institutions found wanting.

Additionally, the directive extends beyond traditional financial institutions to include Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions (DNFBPs), signalling a more comprehensive enforcement approach across Nigeria’s financial ecosystem.”

The latest alert, SEC noted, is in line with its zero-tolerance enforcement of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CFT) rules within Nigeria’s capital market, with emphasis on real-time compliance, detailed reporting, and continuous transaction monitoring.

“For market operators, the trading systems must be capable of rapid name screening, asset tracing, and reporting, while compliance teams are expected to act without delay or prior notice to affected clients.”

“It has to be noted that failure to comply not only exposes firms to regulatory sanctions but also risks damaging their credibility in both domestic and international markets,” the statement added.

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