Connect with us

Feature/OPED

Managing “Emotional Returns” in Investments is Key to Staying on Track

Published

on

By Alexis Calla

In our 2019 outlook, one of the key messages that we have constantly communicated over the years is the importance of diversification. While we get the sense that some of our investors have been heeding this message, it is also clear that some are yet to be convinced.

This year, in conversations with some clients, we introduced the idea of “emotional” investment returns, highlighting that the way you implement diversification can have an impact on how your investment returns affect you. This can, in turn, impact your future investment decisions which could be detrimental to your long term financial returns. This idea clearly resonated with them and we decided to share it more broadly.

One of my favourite books is Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. Kahneman is a Nobel Prize winner for his research (with Amos Tversky) into behavioural biases. One of their theories is “prospect theory”, which states that “the pain of losing is 2 times greater than the pleasure of winning”. Let’s examine the recent performance of a couple of different asset classes in recent times to demonstrate the importance of this finding.

One of the most popular asset classes in 2018 was US equities, which rose 11.2% from its start of the year level of 5212 to its 5794 peak-level in September, before falling 14.0% from the peak to its year-end level of 4984. From a “classic financial” point of view, if this was the person’s only investment (let us say $10,000), the loss would have been 4.4%. Not ideal, but hardly the end of the world. However, from an “emotional” point of view, it was probably a lot worse. Taking Kahneman’s 2:1 emotional cost/benefit ratio into account, the investor would have experienced 11.2 gain in ‘emotional points’ followed by a 28 points loss (2 multiply by 14), before arriving at a net loss of 8.8 “emotional points”. What an emotional roller coaster!

But what about an investor who got intrigued by our call for diversification?

There are two potential ways to achieve this. One way is to invest equally in two different funds. The second is to invest in a fund that has a 50:50 split between the two asset classes. While they are financially equivalent (assuming the fund manager invests in the same underlying assets), emotionally they can be very different.

To work fully, financially as well as emotionally, diversification requires investors to look at their investments as a pool and not as a set of separate items. Another Nobel Prize winner, Richard Thaler, established that many of us have a tendency called “mental accounting” that often prevent us from looking at things in totality. What this means is we all have the tendency to look at each individual line of an investment portfolio. This can influence us to make sub-optimal decisions.

Developing the above analysis further, let’s take the example of an investor who decided to split her US equity investment, allocating $5,000 to global bonds. On this second investment, she would have made a loss of 1.9% (loss of 3.8 “emotional points”) through to the peak in the US stock market and then a gain of 0.7% (gain of 0.7 “emotional points”) in the remainder of the year for a net loss of 2.4 “emotional points” over the year. The combination of the two investments would have been a 4.6% gain through to the peak in the US stock market and then a loss of 7.1% in the remainder of the year for a net loss of 2.8% over the year. But “mental accounting” would have prevented our investor from aggregating ‘emotional’ returns, the equity allocation remaining a painful 8.8 “emotional points” loss.

However, for the investor who decided to invest $10,000 in one fund that diversified across both US equities and global bonds, her return would have been 4.6% (4.6 “emotional points”) through September and then a loss of 7.1% (-14.2 “emotional points”) in the remainder of the year for a net -5.6 “emotional points” loss.

As you can see, the financial return is clearly the same at each point, but the ‘emotional’ returns can be very different if the investor mentally accounts for each individual investment.

When using a balanced product, the reduction in the ‘emotional’ pain during the equity market fall (-14.2 points vs -28 points) far outweighs the loss of ‘emotional’ gain up to the peak period (4.6 points vs 11.2 points).

The risk of ignoring the investor’s ‘emotional’ pain would be so great that they would sell what is hurting them. Not only could this distract them from their long-term objectives, but in this instance, it would also have meant selling equities just before the strong rally we subsequently saw since the turn of the year (+11.8%).

Helping our clients make less biased investment decisions is one of our key objectives at Standard Chartered Bank. The above academic research, together with our day-to-day experience with clients, suggests investors should allocate a significant portion of their investments to core diversified holdings as we believe this will help them manage their emotions and stay on track when it comes to their long-term financial goals.

Alexis Calla is Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered Bank.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Feature/OPED

Why Access Champions Africa’s Biggest Race

Published

on

roosevelt ogbonna access bank

On a particular Saturday each February, before dawn breaks over Lagos and thousands of participants prepare for the event, the city is filled with an unmistakable sense of anticipation. Roads typically bustling with traffic become thoroughfares devoted to new possibilities. Whether it is first-time runners adjusting their bibs or elite athletes focusing on the challenge ahead, a recurring question arises in both public discourse and executive meetings: What motivates Access to consistently support Africa’s largest road race year after year?

The response does not lie merely within sponsorship objectives or marketing strategies. Rather, it emanates from a philosophy of leadership, one that recognises institutions as interconnected with society, measuring true success by purpose, people, and enduring social impact, not solely by financial outcomes.

For Access, the Lagos City Marathon is a statement of belief in Africa’s potential, a commitment to collective progress, and a powerful reflection of the values that guide how we build businesses and engage with communities across the continent.

Marathon as Metaphor for Africa’s Journey

A marathon is not won in the first kilometre. It demands patience, resilience, discipline, and an unshakable belief in the finish line, even when it feels impossibly far away. These qualities mirror Africa’s own development journey and the realities of building enduring institutions on the continent.

Access sees the marathon as a living metaphor for what it takes to create sustainable impact. Growth is rarely linear. Progress often comes with setbacks. But those who stay the course, who invest consistently, and who keep moving forward ultimately create lasting change. This philosophy shapes how we approach banking, partnerships, innovation, and leadership.

Supporting Africa’s biggest road race is therefore not incidental. It reinforces the idea that success, whether personal, corporate, or national, is built through long-term commitment rather than short-term wins.

People at the Centre of Progress

What makes the Lagos City Marathon truly special is its inclusivity. On race day, the streets belong to everyone: professionals running for personal bests, young people discovering the joy of movement, families cheering from the sidelines, and communities coming together in shared celebration.

This diversity reflects Access’s people-first philosophy, believing that progress is most powerful when it is inclusive, when platforms are designed to welcome participation rather than privilege exclusivity. By championing the marathon, we invest in a space where people from all walks of life are united by a common goal: to push beyond perceived limits.

Leadership Beyond Profit

Today’s business environment demands more from corporate leaders. Stakeholders increasingly expect institutions to contribute meaningfully to society, not as an afterthought, but as an integral part of strategy. Access embraces this responsibility.

Championing the Lagos City Marathon is one of the ways leadership is projected from Access. It is an opportunity to demonstrate what values-driven leadership looks like in action. The race promotes physical and mental wellness, encourages healthy lifestyles, and reinforces the importance of balance,lessons that are as relevant in the workplace as they are on the road.

More importantly, it shows that leadership is not about standing apart from society, but about standing with it. Running alongside communities. Investing in shared experiences. Creating platforms that inspire confidence and ambition, especially for young Africans who are redefining what is possible.

Economic and Social Impact That Lasts

The impact of the marathon extends far beyond race day. Each edition generates economic activity across multiple sectors, hospitality, transportation, logistics, retail, media, and tourism. Small businesses thrive, jobs are created, and local vendors benefit from increased footfall.

By attracting international runners and visitors, the marathon positions Lagos as a global destination capable of hosting world-class events. It challenges outdated narratives and showcases Nigeria’s ability to deliver excellence at scale. This visibility matters, not just for the city, but for the continent.

Building a Legacy of Inspiration

Perhaps the most enduring value of the marathon lies in inspiration. For many runners, crossing the finish line is a personal victory, proof that they can commit, endure, and succeed. For spectators, it is a powerful reminder of human potential and collective spirit.

These moments matter. They shape mindsets. They encourage people to set bigger goals, whether in health, career, or community. They reinforce the belief that with the right support and determination, progress is possible.

Access champions this race because of the belief that Africa deserves platforms that inspire millions to move, dream, and achieve more.

Leading the Long Race Together

Leadership, like a marathon, is not a sprint. It requires vision, endurance, and the willingness to keep going even when results are not immediate. Access is committed to running this long race with Africa, investing in people, institutions, and platforms that drive sustainable growth.

As runners take their marks every February, we are reminded that progress is built one step at a time. By championing Africa’s biggest road race, Access shows its belief in collective effort, long-term impact, and the power of leadership that moves with society, not ahead of it, and never apart from it.Because when Africa runs, we all move forward.

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

Why Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground with Big Profits, Weak Capital

Published

on

Nigeria’s Banks Still on Shaky Ground

By Blaise Udunze

Despite the fragile 2024 economy grappling with inflation, currency volatility, and weak growth, Nigeria’s banking industry was widely portrayed as successful and strong amid triumphal headlines. The figures appeared to signal strength, resilience, and superior management as the Tier-1 banks such as Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, UBA, and First Bank of Nigeria, collectively reported profits approaching, and in some cases exceeding, N1 trillion. Surprisingly, a year later, these same banks touted as sound and solid are locked in a frenetic race to the capital markets, issuing rights offers and public placements back-to-back to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N500 billion recapitalisation thresholds.

The contradiction is glaring. If Nigeria’s biggest banks are so profitable, why are they unable to internally fund their new capital requirements? Why have no fewer than 27 banks tapped the capital market in quick succession despite repeated assurances of balance-sheet robustness? And more fundamentally, what do these record profits actually say about the real health of the banking system?

The recapitalisation directive announced by the CBN in 2024 was ambitious by design. Banks with international licences were required to raise minimum capital to N500 billion by March 2026, while national and regional banks faced lower but still substantial thresholds ranging from N200 billion to N50 billion, respectively. Looking at the policy, it was sold as a modern reform meant to make banks stronger, more resilient in tough times, and better able to support major long-term economic development.  In theory, strong banks should welcome such reforms. In practice, the scramble that followed has exposed uncomfortable truths about the structure of bank profitability in Nigeria.

At the heart of the inconsistency is a fundamental misunderstanding often encouraged by the banks themselves between profits and capital. Unknown to many, profitability, no matter how impressive, does not automatically translate into regulatory capital. Primarily, the CBN’s recapitalisation framework actually focuses on money paid in by shareholders when buying shares, fresh equity injected by investors over retained earnings or profits that exist mainly on paper.

This distinction matters because much of the profit surge recorded in 2024 and early 2025 was neither cash-generative nor sustainably repeatable. A significant portion of those headline banks’ profits reported actually came from foreign exchange revaluation gains following the sharp fall of the naira after exchange-rate unification. The industry witnessed that banks’ holding dollar-denominated assets their books showed bigger numbers as their balance sheets swell in naira terms, creating enormous paper profits without a corresponding improvement in underlying operational strength. These gains inflated income statements but did little to strengthen core capital, especially after the CBN barred banks from using FX revaluation gains for dividends or routine operations. In effect, banks looked richer without becoming stronger.

Beyond FX effects, Nigerian banks have increasingly relied on non-interest income fees, charges, and transaction levies to drive profitability. While this model is lucrative, it does not necessarily deepen financial intermediation or expand productive lending. High profits built on customer charges rather than loan growth offer limited support for long-term balance-sheet expansion. They also leave banks vulnerable when macroeconomic conditions shift, as is now happening.

Indeed, the recapitalisation exercise coincides with a turning point in the monetary cycle. The extraordinary conditions that supported bank earnings in 2024 and 2025 are beginning to unwind. Analysts now warn that Nigerian banks are approaching earnings reset, as net interest margins the backbone of traditional banking profitability, come under sustained pressure.

Renaissance Capital, in a January note, projects that major banks including Zenith, GTCO, Access Holdings, and UBA will struggle to deliver earnings growth in 2026 comparable to recent performance.

In a real sense, the CBN is expected to lower interest rates by 400 to 500 basis points because inflation is slowing down, and this means that banks will earn less on loans and government bonds, but they may not be able to quickly lower the interest they pay on deposits or other debts. The cash reserve requirements are still elevated, which does not earn interest; banks can’t easily increase or expand lending investments to make up for lower returns. The implications are significant. Net interest margin, the difference between what banks earn on loans and investments and what they pay on deposits, is poised to contract. Deposit competition is intensifying as lenders fight to shore up liquidity ahead of recapitalisation deadlines, pushing up funding costs. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds, long a safe and lucrative haven for banks are expected to soften in a lower-rate environment. The result is a narrowing profit cushion just as banks are being asked to carry far larger equity bases.

Compounding this challenge is the fading of FX revaluation windfalls. With the naira relatively more stable in early 2026, the non-cash gains that once flattered bank earnings have largely evaporated. What remains is the less glamorous reality of core banking operations: credit risk management, cost efficiency, and genuine loan growth in a sluggish economy. In this new environment, maintaining headline profits will be far harder, even before accounting for the dilutive impact of recapitalisation.

That dilution is another underappreciated consequence of the capital rush. Massive share issuances mean that even if banks manage to sustain absolute profit levels, earnings per share and return on equity are likely to decline. Zenith, Access, UBA, and others are dramatically increasing their share counts. The same earnings pie is now being divided among many more shareholders, making individual returns leaner than during the pre-recapitalisation boom. For investors, the optics of strong profits may soon give way to the reality of weaker per-share performance.

Yet banks have pressed ahead, not only out of regulatory necessity but also strategic calculation.

During this period of recapitalization, investors are interested in the stock market with optimism, especially about bank shares, as banks are raising fresh capital, and this makes it easier to attract investments. This has become a season for the management teams to seize the moment to raise funds at relatively attractive valuations, strengthen ownership positions, and position themselves for post-recapitalisation dominance. In several cases, major shareholders and insiders have increased their stakes, as projected in the media, signalling confidence in long-term prospects even as near-term returns face pressure.

There is also a broader structural ambition at play. Well-capitalised banks can take on larger single obligor exposures, finance infrastructure projects, expand regionally, and compete more credibly with pan-African and global peers. From this perspective, recapitalisation is not merely about compliance but about reshaping the competitive hierarchy of Nigerian banking. What will be witnessed in the industry is that those who succeed will emerge larger, fewer, and more powerful. Those that fail will be forced into consolidation, retreat, or irrelevance.

For the wider economy, the outcome is ambiguous. Stronger banks with deeper capital buffers could improve systemic stability and enhance Nigeria’s ability to fund long-term development. The point is that while merging or consolidating banks may make them safer, it can also harm the market and the economy because it will reduce competition, let a few banks dominate, and encourage them to earn easy money from bonds and fees instead of funding real businesses. The truth be told, injecting more capital into the banks without complementary reforms in credit infrastructure, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal discipline, isn’t enough as the aforementioned reforms are also needed.

The rush as exposed in this period, is that the moment Nigerian banks started raising new capital, the glaring reality behind their reported profits became clearer, that profits weren’t purely from good management, while the financial industry is not as sound and strong as its headline figures. The fact that trillion-naira profit banks must return repeatedly to shareholders for fresh capital is not a sign of excess strength, but of structural imbalance.

With the deadline for banks to raise new capital coming soon, by 31 March 2026, the focus has shifted from just raising N500 billion. N200 billion or N50 billion to think about the future shape and quality of Nigeria’s financial industry, or what it will actually look like afterward. Will recapitalisation mark a turning point toward deeper intermediation, lower dependence on speculative gains, and stronger support for economic growth? Or will it simply reset the numbers while leaving underlying incentives unchanged?

The answer will define the next chapter of Nigerian banking long after the capital market roadshows have ended and the profit headlines have faded.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

Continue Reading

Feature/OPED

Responsible by Design: How Tech Partners Must Rethink AI Deployment

Published

on

Mostafa KabelvMindware Group CTO

By Mostafa Kabel

Artificial intelligence is no longer an experimental technology confined to innovation labs. It is actively shaping customer experiences, automating business decisions, and generating original content at scale. As adoption accelerates across industries, tech partners sit at the centre of this transformationresponsible not only for deployment, but for ensuring AI is used legally, ethically, and transparently.

The new phase of AI adoption demands more than technical expertise. It requires partners to rethink legal frameworks, intellectual property models, service accountability, and ethical responsibility. Those who fail to adapt risk regulatory exposure, reputational damage, and erosion of customer trust.

Navigating Legal and Licensing Complexity

One of the most critical areas partners must address is licensing and legal compliance. AI modelsparticularly generative onesare only as deployable as the rights that govern them. Partners must ensure that models are authorised for commercial use and that the outputs they generate do not infringe on copyright, privacy, or data sovereignty regulations.

This becomes especially important in automated decision-making scenarios such as hiring, credit assessments, or fraud detection, where accountability must be clearly defined. Contracts should outline liability boundaries and compliance obligations under frameworks such as GDPR or regional equivalents. Auditability and bias mitigation are no longer optional safeguards; they are legal necessities, particularly in regulated sectors.

Adding another layer of complexity is the infrastructure underpinning AI. The growing reliance on high-performance GPUs introduces exposure to export controls, sanctions, and hardware usage restrictions. In regions with geopolitical sensitivities, partners must ensure AI infrastructure deployments align with government regulations and vendor licensing requirements.

Defining IP Ownership in an AI-Driven World

Intellectual property ownership in AI is rarely straightforward. Partners must clearly distinguish between ownership of the base model, the training data, and the resulting outputs. This becomes especially nuanced in co-development or white-label arrangements.

If a partner fine-tunes a model using a customer’s proprietary data, ownership of that model variantand its outputsmust be explicitly defined. Agreements should also cover redistribution rights, commercial usage, and branding controls. Addressing these questions early not only avoids disputes but establishes trust and alignment between partners and enterprise clients.

Ethical Responsibility as a Business Imperative

When AI influences hiring decisions, financial outcomes, or customer interactions, ethical responsibility becomes inseparable from technical delivery. Partners have a duty to ensure systems are fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory.

This means investing in diverse training data, conducting regular bias assessments, and enabling explainable AI outputs. Importantly, these responsibilities should be reflected in service agreements. Clients should have the right to human oversight, audit AI-driven decisions, and request corrective action when unintended outcomes arise. Ethical guardrails are no longer philosophical idealsthey are essential to regulatory compliance and long-term adoption.

Updating SLAs for Generative AI Reality

Traditional service level agreements were never designed for systems that learn, adapt, and sometimes behave unpredictably. Generative AI introduces challenges such as hallucinations, data drift, and inconsistent outputs, all of which must be acknowledged contractually.

Partners should update SLAs to include AI-specific performance benchmarks, monitoring mechanisms, and escalation procedures. Risk disclaimers must clearly state that AI-generated content may not always be accurate or contextually appropriate. Regular model reviews and updates should also be built into agreements to ensure sustained performance over time. Just as important is educating customerssetting realistic expectations is foundational to responsible deployment.

Building Trust Through Transparency

Trust in AI begins with transparency. Partners reselling or customising third-party models should disclose the model’s source, version, training scope, and known limitations. Any modifications or fine-tuning must be documented and shared with clients.

Labelling AI-generated content, enabling explainability tools, and offering audit capabilities all contribute to greater accountability. Many organisations are also adopting ethical AI frameworks or certifications as a way to formalise best practices. Ongoing education and openness about AI capabilities and limitations are key to building durable client relationships.

Preparing for a More Regulated Future

Looking ahead, the partner ecosystem must take a proactive approach to AI governance. Standardised AI clauses will increasingly become part of contracts, addressing IP rights, data privacy, explainability, and liability. On the technical side, partners must invest in governance platforms, continuous monitoring, and bias detection tools.

Ethically, alignment with global regulations such as the EU AI Act will be critical, even for organisations operating outside Europe. Shared codes of conduct, regular training, and collaboration with policymakers will define the next generation of responsible AI partnerships.

At Mindware, we are already supporting partners on this journey. With deep experience across AI infrastructure, software, and compliance services, we help organisations build secure, scalable, and responsible AI frameworks. From compliant GPU deployments and AI-ready data platforms to ethical governance advisory, we work closely with partners across the MEA region to navigate evolving regulatory and technological demands.

As AI continues to reshape industries, success will belong to those who can deploy it not just quicklybut responsibly, transparently, and ethically.

Mostafa Kabel is the CTO of Mindware Group

Continue Reading

Trending