Feature/OPED
Who is on a Motive to Destroy ABC Orjiako’s Reputation after he Paid $143.3m?
By Hauwa Hazan-Baba
An American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist, Warren Edward Buffett in one of his famous quotes said: “Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway”.
Recently, there have been several media publications in relation to loan facilities taken by Shebah E&P Limited to carry out a drilling campaign in OML 108. These cases had been in various courts between London and Nigeria since 2014 until the latest initiated by Zenith Bank in October 2021. All these cases are in relation to the inconclusive drilling campaign in Ukpokiti oil field, offshore the Niger Delta.
The origin of the who brouhaha
Like Buffett said, “What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” The origin of the matter is that in 2012 Shebah E and P obtained a $150million loan facility from a consortium of banks (AFREXIM/Diamond- now Access/Skye- now Polaris) led by AFREXIM.
The facility was meant for a workover and drilling campaign at the Ukpokiti field (OML 108) operated by Shebah E&P.
Incidentally, all these cases have received extensive media attention and each time one individual has been mentioned repeatedly as the debtor in these facilities.
That person is ABC Orjiako, an orthopaedic surgeon, who is also the co-founder and Chairman of Seplat Energy Plc. It is therefore incumbent on any investigative journalist to carry out an independent analysis of these debts and associated court cases to reveal the underlying facts behind all the Stories and whether Dr ABC Orjiako is “Guilty As Charged”.
It is pertinent to state that this current frenzy over the loan matter is not a fresh case but the same case that has been reported variously in the media since 2016.
Never a borrower and never utilized facilities as a person
The most astonishing fact in all this is that Dr Orjiako was never a borrower and never utilised the facilities as a person. He was merely the majority shareholder of Shebah and guarantor of the facilities. Dr Orjiako was not even a member of the management of Shebah but stepped up to salvage the company by making payments to the banks using personal and family assets to liquidate the facilities. The banks disbursed the loan directly to the service providers of the company.
Hear this
Shebah drilled a successful horizontal well, the first of its kind in the offshore Niger Delta and tested 4000 barrels per day of oil and condensate production but encountered large gas reserves. The company then decided to find a solution to the huge associated gas based on professional oil field best practices before the continuation of the oil/ condensate production. The company required more funds to commercialize the gas to avoid excessive flaring while producing the discovered oil.
AFREXIM led consortium of lenders
It is worth noting that the AFREXIM led consortium of lenders, could not provide further facilities to Shebah to conclude the operations. In 2014, Shebah then approached Zenith Bank, which appraised the situation and provided a $250 million loan facility fully approved by its board to salvage the situation. Zenith proposed to pay the consortium of banks $50million to reduce their collective exposure, enhance the facility to $350million, provide Shebah with additional funds to monetize the gas and produce the discovered oil. The enhanced facility would have had Zenith join and lead the syndicate with $250 million, while the consortium of existing lenders would have reduced their exposure and stay at $100 million (about $33 million each).
Zenith requested to have a moratorium period of 9 months
Zenith further requested (in line with Shebah’s need) to have a moratorium period of 9 months to conclude the projects and extend the facility tenure to 5 years. This was meant to spread the cash flow and enable easy repayment of the enhanced facility.
Surprisingly, the AFREXIM consortium rejected the $50 million offered by Zenith on the grounds that Zenith should not lead the syndicate and they were not willing to extend the tenure of the facility which was remaining about two and half years as at the time of Zenith’s offer.
Preparatory to monetizing the discovered gas, Shebah negotiated and executed a GSPA of $2.5billion for 20 years gas sale on a take or pay basis with the Nigerian Gas Company(NGC) as the gas offtaker supported by a payment bank guarantee in the sum of $70million from Zenith bank.
The AFREXIM consortium rejected all the efforts being made by Shebah and proceeded to file an action to call the facility in 2014 (just two years after final draw down). The call of the facility ahead of the maturity triggered the default on the loan.
The Justice Phillips of the London High Court judgment
On 19 February 2016, Mr Justice Phillips of the London High Court delivered a judgment in favour of the AFREXIM consortium for the repayment of the $150M loan facility. The judgment creditors then registered the judgment in Federal High Court in Lagos and applied for enforcement of the judgment.
The defendants immediately opposed the registration and the enforcement of the judgment based on their convictions on rule of law and on the fact that they would like to negotiate an out of court settlement and pay back the loan under a restructured arrangement. This case is still life before a Justice of the Federal High Court Lagos. The court is awaiting the outcome on the settlement which will be entered as a consent judgement.
Contrary to the Syndication agreement by the AFREXIM consortium, Polaris Bank transferred its share of the judgement facility to AMCON.
Notwithstanding the unilateral action by Polaris bank, AMCON initiated a fresh action in Federal High Court Abuja, not minding that the same case had already got a ruling in London and was subject to a contested enforcement proceeding in the Federal High Court Lagos. It was by the case that AMCON filed that an Ex-Parte order was granted in 2019 which was widely reported in the press.
See what Orjiako has paid
Buffett’s saying goes that, “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians”. Orjiako has paid the following sums to the lenders: $89.3 million (out of a total principal of $150 million) including $20 million paid this year to the consortium of AMCON/AFREXIM/ACCESS toward the repayment efforts. This means that if his proposal is accepted by these creditors, the outstanding Principal amount would be $60.7 million. He had made a proposal to these creditors to accommodate Zenith bank in the distribution of the repayment, but they have not accepted this proposal, which would have prevented the Zenith bank action of October 2021.
In the case of Zenith Bank, ABC Orjiako has also paid back $54 million (including proceeds of forced sale of his family Seplat shares by Zenith bank) out of the principal of $70m and is currently engaging the bank to negotiate an out of court settlement. This means that Dr Orjiako has paid a total sum of $143.3 million ($89.3 million plus $54 million).
Why the misrepresentations of facts
Most stories read recently on this issue are unfortunately been used to misrepresent facts as they have portrayed an innocent person in a very bad light with enormous reputational damage.
It is important to note that these kinds of misrepresentations are misinforming the global investing community with their negative consequences for Nigeria. It would be recalled that Dr Orjiako has continued to lead Seplat Energy to its exponential growth attaining the enviable position as an indigenous Nigerian Independent Energy company listed in the London and the Nigerian Stock Exchanges, among many other feats.
Payments clearly show high moral duty and integrity
These payments are a clear show of high moral duty and integrity to repay a loan Dr Orjiako did not utilise and for oil assets that are not generating any revenues. From the deluge of negative media reports, most of which misrepresent the matter, there is a strong impression that these are smear campaigns.
It was also revealed that SEPLAT where Dr ABC Orjiako is the Chairman is not involved in any of these matters whatsoever contrary to the nuances in the media report. The SEPLAT board of directors being very strong in corporate governance had activated all governance and compliance processes and procedures to ensure that there are no breaches of any aspect of regulatory compliance or its governance policies.
Out of court settlement in the offering
There is information also that the parties may be considering out of court settlement of the commercial dispute. A positive outcome of such a settlement will bring the entire impasse to a final close.
In a completely different case, Access Bank versus Cardinal Drilling, ABC Orjiako, unfortunately, had the misfortune of being blamed for the Cardinal facility because he is seen as the alter ego of the company.
Dr Orjiako’s involvement was just as an investor in Cardinal where his company Shebah invested alongside Platform Petroleum and Maurel et Prom, all of who are founding shareholders of Seplat. Neither Orjiako nor other shareholders ever received dividends from Cardinal. All the equity investments were lost but again, curiously, only Orjiako was singled out for the smear campaign.
Hauwa Hazan-Baba (BSc Econ, MSc Management) is an Economist and Public Affairs Analyst based in the United States
By Tony Ogunlowo
‘Titanic’ can mean something that is very big, gigantic or enormous and it was also the name of a ship that sank on its maiden voyage.
When the Titanic sank in 1912 it sank due to a number of avoidable factors: a ship deemed unsinkable that wasn’t fitted with watertight compartments, a ‘unprofessional’ seasoned captain who was apparently bullied into going at full speed through known ice-berg strewn waters, lack of common binoculars for the deck watch and the unavailability of enough life boats for all the passengers.
This all put together, as they say, was a recipe for disaster. Red flags were ignored.
Translating this to President Tinubu’s modern-day Nigeria, the avoidable factors that can sink the country are way too obvious.
Nigerians have long enjoyed the benefits of fuel subsidy. Costly as it is to maintain it’s enabled the economy to keep running by keeping the cost of things low. It’s removal, as can be seen, has created a domino effect, as the experts predicted, resulting in the prices of even the basic commodities skyrocketing as everyone passes on the additional costs.
With inflation currently at 32.7% and still rising, things are only going to keep on getting more and more expensive. As a result, the new minimum wage of N70,000 will have less purchasing power than the previous 2021 minimum wage of N30,000. If fuel subsidy removal was meant to boost the economy it has done the opposite and will stagnate any efforts to kickstart it.
The governments inability to control corruption or severely punish corrupt officials which is robbing the country’s coffers of billions and billions of Naira every year is a stumbling block for development.
If a corrupt government official who built 750 houses with stolen funds or an ex-governor accused of misappropriating N80 billion are allowed to walk around freely, supposedly on bail, without fear of eventual conviction it questions the message the government is sending out to future looters: if the culprits were in Russia or China the outcome will be totally different.
Even though an austerity economic policy may seem harsh like it was designed to rob Peter to pay Paul, it should be short, sharp hardship with green pastures in the foreseeable future – not ever! A good start will be to cut down on the number of foreign loans being obtained every year as their repayment can take a huge chunk out of the country’s annual income.
The new tax laws are long overdue and it should include that VAT earned in a state stays in that state: so, if your state doesn’t generate any VAT (- such as from the sale of alcohol products) you don’t get to share in what other states have collected.
Insecurity in the country is not something that started yesterday. Previous governments have blood on their hands for not nipping these insurrections in the bud before they grew to become monstrosities. You don’t pat yourself on the back, like the Nigerian Army likes to do believing you have the threat ‘under control’ – you eliminate the threat completely using what ever means necessary.
Unless the order (given by ‘Somebody’) is not to destroy them completely and to quote the late Sani Abacha,”…any insurgency that lasts more than 24 hours, a government official has a hand in it..”, no wonder Boko Haram continues to flourish and bandits like Turji Bello continue to taut the government. When the armed robber Lawrence Anini did something similar in 1986 he was fished out within months, tried and executed.
As I’ve written before the Nigerian Police Force is long past its sell by date and considering the ever growing population of Nigeria with its associated acts of anti-social behaviour its time to seriously consider devolving the NPF into state-run outfits. The growing popularity of state-run security outfits, such as Amotekun, proves this is feasible and effective.
Considering the fact the country is going through severe economic hardship the President, himself, should curb frivolous spending where possible: no more new Presidential yachts or planes ( – that includes the new one for the VP), a cap on ridiculous-no-real-job SA and SSA appointments and most important of all a cap on ALL politicians salaries and perks (which is to say if politicians are patriotic enough they’ll agree to a pay cut, forgo some of their benefits and pay for their own jaunts abroad).
Implementing the Steve Oronsaye Report which recommends merging and closing of ministries etc that has been passed over by every President since President Goodluck commissioned it in 2011 will cut government operating costs even further. This should not just be at Presidential level but extended to all the states: this will not just streamline the bloated and largely inefficient civil service but will also weed out ghost workers and white elephant project.
The ‘japa’ movement which the government is trying to discourage should be allowed to continue. It’s morally wrong for a government that can’t provide suitable employment for its citizens to try and prevent them from seeking opportunities abroad : ‘japa’ is not just limited to Nigerians, it’s a worldwide phenomenon.
People, British, American, Filipinos, are migrating worldwide to where ever there are opportunities for them to prosper. That’s the way the world works now: nobody is going to stay in a ‘sh*t-hole’ country if there are no opportunities for them to grow. Scr3w patriotism! It’s every man for himself! So, if a country can’t provide adequate employment opportunities people will pack their bags and ‘japa’! And if you restrict them from leaving the country what are they going to do? Get up to mischief – 419, cultism, kidnapping!
These same people send money back to their home countries all the time: Nigerians in diaspora in 2023 alone sent home more than $19.5 Billion Dollars. This is a huge injection of foreign currency for a country that desperately needs it.
So, just like the Titanic the warning signs are there and the inevitable that will happen should they be ignored. The question is which way is President Tinubu going to go. This is what I call the ‘Titanic Wahala’, ignore the obvious and the proverbial will hit the fan, sooner or later.
Feature/OPED
From Rental Shifts to AI Innovations: The Evolving Landscape of South Africa’s Property Sector
By Waldo Marcus
The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.
Rental property gross yields will, on average, stay the same as property values are expected to increase in line with rental income. The challenge for investors will be to keep operating costs down to maintain or improve net yields.
A favourable outlook for residential housing market
The outlook for the residential housing market is more favourable for 2025 than it has been for the past few years with the property market offering good value overall. The interest rate will likely be cut by a further 50bps by the third quarter of 2025, offering further relief for household finances and renewed activity at both the lower and upper ends of the market. More investments could see an increase in rental property supply and even a potential decline in rental demand as more consumers shift from renting to buying. We expect continued demand for well-managed rental properties.
Waldo Marcus is a Director at TPN from MRI Software
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