General
The Impact of COVID-19 on Finance and Investment in Africa
By Morne van der Merwe and Wildu du Plessis
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has resulted in mass production shutdowns and supply chain disruptions due to port closures in China, causing global ripple effects across all economic sectors in a rare “twin supply-demand shock”.
With South Africa having just reported its first cases of COVID-19, Africa is beginning to feel its full impact and plans to control and manage the humanitarian challenges of the virus are underway across the continent.
Economically, the effects have already been felt – demand for Africa’s raw materials and commodities in China has declined and Africa’s access to industrial components and manufactured goods from the region has been hampered. This is causing further uncertainty in a continent already grappling with widespread geopolitical and economic instability.
The number of cases is reportedly slowing down in China, increasing expectations that it will eventually reach a plateau and be brought under control. However, in early March the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that “annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 2019, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020”, with global markets plunging in the days thereafter.
Although Chinese growth will fall in the short term, it is expected to rebound quickly, some suggesting this could even happen in the second quarter of 2020 when the virus will hopefully be contained. In the meantime, central banks are implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the virus on the economy, cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into the banking systems in some countries.
In early March, the World Bank announced it would commit $12 billion in aid to developing countries to help them to deal with the impact of the virus and limit its spread.
The bank said it would prioritise the most at-risk countries. The World Bank also introduced a pandemic bond in 2017, which, as part of the Pandemic Emergency Finance Facility intended to provide money to help developing countries in the event of a pandemic reaching certain thresholds and conditions. So far, these criteria have not been met and the bond has not paid out.
Uncertainty regarding the spread of COVID-19 is high and its impact on Africa is expected to be serious, given the continent’s exposure to China. So far, cases have been reported in Algeria, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia. If there is a widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in Africa it could overwhelm already weak healthcare systems in the region.
According to ratings agency, Fitch, the Coronavirus outbreak will have a downside risk for short term growth for sub-Saharan African growth, particularly in Ghana, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Gabon and Nigeria – all countries that export large amounts of commodities to China.
Impact on Merger & Acquisition activity
Africa has come through a period of prolonged political and economic uncertainty, but signs of future economic improvement, were pointing to a modest increase in M&A activity in Africa over the next few years. COVID-19 is likely to hamper this predicted upturn and result in increased short-term uncertainty in terms of how it will affect investment opportunities in Africa, the continent’s productivity and consumer demand.
There are other transactional risks. If the virus spreads rapidly in Africa, countries might have to introduce similar measures to those taken in China where areas were locked down, factories were shut, quarantines enforced and travel bans imposed.
As such, these events could potentially be significant enough to trigger a change to the terms of an M&A transaction currently in progress, and deals could be delayed as a result. COVID-19 conditions could also cause delays to M&A due diligence, necessary for a transaction to progress to finalisation. Further, the virus could qualify as a force majeure event causing more delays or terminations.
We are hopeful the rebound from COVID-19 will coincide with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in July 2020, which should provide an additional boost to deal activity in Africa the coming years. The AfCFTA is the first continent-wide African trade agreement, with the potential to facilitate and harmonise trade and infrastructure development in Africa. This boost to the investment environment will be welcome after the additional uncertainty of dealing with COVID-19 impacts.
Impact on Capital raising and IPOs
African issuers have been waiting several years for an improvement to political and economic instability in Africa before going ahead with any planned capital raising. As a case in point, Baker McKenzie’s Global Transactions Forecast showed that there were no IPOs in South Africa in 2019.
Also eroding investor confidence were the numerous global trade tensions, with capital raisers watching for signs of resolution before launching IPOs. With Africa looking to benefit from new global and regional trade agreements, the forecasts had been pointing to a potential recovery in capital markets in the next few years, but this might be delayed as the uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19 in Africa reaches its peak.
IPOs in the region are therefore expected to decline, not directly because of the virus as is the case with equities, but because COVID-19 will have an effect on the underlying business case for IPO companies, which will impact on their ability to raise capital
Impact on financial institutions
Global financial institutions are currently assessing the impact of COVID-19 and reacting to its economic impact, ensuring they are able to adjust to new and unprecedented circumstances brought about by the virus. It remains to be seen whether the huge global economic downturn caused by decreased output in China will impact on African lenders and compel financial institutions on the continent to be more lenient towards borrowers and cut them some slack.
Impact on Local Markets
Since global economic growth is a key driver of commodity prices, local prices have been driven down by the virus’s global impact. The uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19 on local markets is expected to lead to increased risk aversion from investors who are waiting to see its potential impact in Africa. On the plus side, a temporary fall in share prices provides opportunities for prudent investors.
Impact of the Insurance sector
Both businesses and individuals in Africa might find they are uninsured for any COVID-19 impacts as losses related to an epidemic or pandemic would usually not be covered in insurance policies, irrespective of whether the insurance covers business interruption, property damage, product losses or personal life and non-life insurance or even travel insurance.
As COVID-19 is a new disease, it would not have been specifically listed in existing insurance contracts. Many business interruption policies will include clauses for extended damage, but it is unlikely that these extensions will provide coverage under the current circumstances. As such, the wording of policies should be carefully checked.
Some insurance companies who provide cancelled event coverage that specifically includes references to epidemics or pandemics could be impacted. Reuters reported that financial services firm Jefferies estimated the insured cost of the Tokyo Olympics to be around USD 2 billion – including television rights, hospitality and sponsorship.
Morne van der Merwe, Managing Partner, and Wildu du Plessis, Head of Africa, Baker McKenzie Johannesburg
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has said Nigeria would co-host Investopia with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Lagos in February, an initiative aimed at attracting global investors and accelerating sustainable investment inflows.
President Tinubu made this announcement on the sidelines of the 2026 Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW), where Nigeria also concluded a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE to deepen trade and cooperation in renewable energy, infrastructure, logistics, and digital trade.
“We warmly invite our partners to join us and help build the next chapter of sustainable and shared prosperity for Nigeria, Africa, and the world, ” President Tinubu said.
He described CEPA as a historic and strategic agreement that will also enhance cooperation in aviation, logistics, agriculture, and climate-smart infrastructure, creating enduring opportunities for the people of the two countries, stating that Investopia will bring together investors, innovators, policymakers, and business leaders to transform opportunities into commitment and ideas into investment.
Mr Tinubu told the summit that Nigeria aims to mobilise up to $30 billion annually in climate and green industrial finance as it accelerates energy transition reforms and expands nationwide electricity access.
“The foundation of every modern economy is electricity. As an emerging economy in the Global South, we understand the delicate balance between industrialisation and decarbonisation, ensuring neither is pursued at the expense of the other.
”We are calling for a fundamental shift in the global financial architecture: a move away from the restrictive requirement of sovereign guarantees, which unfairly penalise developing economies.
”Instead, the focus should be on blended finance and first-loss capital mechanisms that allow private sustainable capital flows directly into our green projects without further straining national balance sheets,” he said.
According to President Tinubu, Nigeria has strengthened its climate governance framework with the adoption of a National Carbon Market Activation Policy and the launch of a National Carbon Registry.
He explained that these measures are aimed at improving transparency and investor confidence.
Mr Tinubu highlighted the Electricity Act 2023 as a central pillar of Nigeria’s energy reforms, noting that it enables decentralised power generation and distribution to underserved communities.
He added that Nigeria’s climate investment drive includes a $500 million distributed renewable energy fund backed by the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority, as well as a $750 million World Bank programme expected to expand clean electricity access to more than 17.5 million people.
President Tinubu reaffirmed Nigeria’s target of net-zero emissions by 2060, under its Energy Transition Plan, while pursuing industrial growth and universal energy access.
He invited foreign investors to partner in Nigeria’s lithium and critical minerals sector, stressing that the government prioritises local processing and value addition.
President Tinubu noted that Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms are producing tangible results, including a 21 per cent growth in non-oil exports.
”These reforms, alongside wider fiscal and monetary measures, are delivering results. Non-oil exports have grown by 21 per cent, supported by a more diversified product base. Capital importation has risen, and Nigeria now has over 50 billion dollars in investment commitments across key sectors.
”We are ready to work with partners across the world to ensure that the next era of development is not only green and inclusive, but just and enduring,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The governments of Nigeria and Turkey have agreed to collaborate on enhancing bilateral relations, with a focus on visa facilitation, business mobility, and consular matters.
The agreement followed a meeting in Abuja between the Minister of Interior, Mr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, and the Turkish Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr Mehmet Poroy, during a courtesy visit.
Mr Tunji-Ojo highlighted the strong historical and cultural ties between the two countries and Nigeria’s commitment to a “smart, structured, and practical approach to international cooperation” that promotes people-to-people contact and legitimate business engagement.
“These ties provide a solid foundation for deeper collaboration,” he said.
Ambassador Poroy provided updates on improved visa facilitation for Nigerian businessmen traveling to Turkey, noting that “under the new arrangement, applications are processed locally, allowing verified businesspersons to benefit from faster processing timelines of about three to four days.”
He also raised concerns about Turkish businesspeople facing challenges when visiting Nigeria for trade fairs and investments, citing conflicting information about Nigerian visa arrangements. “We request written clarification to guide applicants accurately,” Poroy said.
A key proposal during the meeting was the inclusion of Turkey in Nigeria’s electronic visa (e-visa) system.
“The absence of a Nigerian visa office in Istanbul creates logistical challenges,” the Ambassador explained, adding that, “Including Turkey in the e-visa regime would significantly enhance business mobility for Turkish nationals.”
In response, Mr Tunji-Ojo assured that “denying visas to genuine Nigerian or Turkish businesspeople is not in the interest of either country.”
He emphasized the Ministry’s commitment to “transparency, dialogue, and continuous improvement in visa administration,” stressing Nigeria’s openness to legitimate investors and international business partners.
The discussion also addressed recognition of Nigerian marriage certificates by foreign missions. The Minister clarified that “all marriage certificates issued under Nigerian law are constitutionally valid and should not require additional verification.”
The Turkish Ambassador acknowledged the concern and committed to reviewing embassy procedures, as both parties agreed on the importance of continued engagement to strengthen bilateral cooperation.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States has delivered military supplies to Nigerian security agencies to bolster operations in several parts of the country.
This was disclosed in a post via X on Tuesday by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM).
“The US forces delivered critical military supplies to our Nigerian partners in Abuja. This delivery supports Nigeria’s ongoing operations and emphasizes our shared security partnership,” the post read.
The development shows cooperation between both nations after US President Donald Trump previously threatened to invade the country over the killing of Christians.
Last November, the federal government dispatched a delegation to Washington, the US capital, aimed at strengthening security partnerships between the two countries and opening new avenues for cooperation.
Leading the delegation then was the National Security Adviser, Mr Nuhu Ribadu, who met with senior officials across the US Congress, the White House Faith Office, the State Department, the National Security Council, and the Department of War.
During the meeting, the Nigerian delegation refuted allegations of genocide in Nigeria, emphasising that violent attacks affect families and communities across religious and ethnic lines.
It also rejected the wrongful framing of the situation, saying such a portrayal would only divide Nigerians and distort the realities on the ground.
According to the presidency at the time, both countries agreed to implement a non-binding cooperation framework and to establish a Joint Working Group to ensure a unified and coordinated approach to the agreed areas of cooperation.
The Nigerian delegation also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to strengthening civilian protection measures.
On Christmas Day 2025, the US has launched strikes against militants linked to the Islamic State group (IS) in north-western Nigeria, where militants have sought to establish a foothold.
According to the Nigerian government, the operation was a joint operation and had nothing to do with a particular religion, adding that the strikes had been planned for quite some time using intelligence provided by the country.
The Nigerian government has long been fighting an array of jihadist groups, including Boko Haram and IS-linked factions, but largely in the North-East. However, some new groups are gaining footholds and the new supplies could help the Nigerian military continue its fight against terrorism.
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