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The Impact of COVID-19 on Finance and Investment in Africa

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equities Investment Strategy

By Morne van der Merwe and Wildu du Plessis

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has resulted in mass production shutdowns and supply chain disruptions due to port closures in China, causing global ripple effects across all economic sectors in a rare “twin supply-demand shock”.

With South Africa having just reported its first cases of COVID-19, Africa is beginning to feel its full impact and plans to control and manage the humanitarian challenges of the virus are underway across the continent.

Economically, the effects have already been felt – demand for Africa’s raw materials and commodities in China has declined and Africa’s access to industrial components and manufactured goods from the region has been hampered. This is causing further uncertainty in a continent already grappling with widespread geopolitical and economic instability.

The number of cases is reportedly slowing down in China, increasing expectations that it will eventually reach a plateau and be brought under control. However, in early March the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that “annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 2019, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020”, with global markets plunging in the days thereafter.

Although Chinese growth will fall in the short term, it is expected to rebound quickly, some suggesting this could even happen in the second quarter of 2020 when the virus will hopefully be contained. In the meantime, central banks are implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the virus on the economy, cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into the banking systems in some countries.

In early March, the World Bank announced it would commit $12 billion in aid to developing countries to help them to deal with the impact of the virus and limit its spread.

The bank said it would prioritise the most at-risk countries. The World Bank also introduced a pandemic bond in 2017, which, as part of the Pandemic Emergency Finance Facility intended to provide money to help developing countries in the event of a pandemic reaching certain thresholds and conditions. So far, these criteria have not been met and the bond has not paid out.

Uncertainty regarding the spread of COVID-19 is high and its impact on Africa is expected to be serious, given the continent’s exposure to China. So far, cases have been reported in Algeria, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia. If there is a widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in Africa it could overwhelm already weak healthcare systems in the region.

According to ratings agency, Fitch, the Coronavirus outbreak will have a downside risk for short term growth for sub-Saharan African growth, particularly in Ghana, Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, South Africa, Gabon and Nigeria – all countries that export large amounts of commodities to China.

Impact on Merger & Acquisition activity

Africa has come through a period of prolonged political and economic uncertainty, but signs of future economic improvement, were pointing to a modest increase in M&A activity in Africa over the next few years. COVID-19 is likely to hamper this predicted upturn and result in increased short-term uncertainty in terms of how it will affect investment opportunities in Africa, the continent’s productivity and consumer demand.

There are other transactional risks. If the virus spreads rapidly in Africa, countries might have to introduce similar measures to those taken in China where areas were locked down, factories were shut, quarantines enforced and travel bans imposed.

As such, these events could potentially be significant enough to trigger a change to the terms of an M&A transaction currently in progress, and deals could be delayed as a result. COVID-19 conditions could also cause delays to M&A due diligence, necessary for a transaction to progress to finalisation. Further, the virus could qualify as a force majeure event causing more delays or terminations.

We are hopeful the rebound from COVID-19 will coincide with the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in July 2020, which should provide an additional boost to deal activity in Africa the coming years. The AfCFTA is the first continent-wide African trade agreement, with the potential to facilitate and harmonise trade and infrastructure development in Africa. This boost to the investment environment will be welcome after the additional uncertainty of dealing with COVID-19 impacts.

Impact on Capital raising and IPOs

African issuers have been waiting several years for an improvement to political and economic instability in Africa before going ahead with any planned capital raising. As a case in point, Baker McKenzie’s Global Transactions Forecast showed that there were no IPOs in South Africa in 2019.

Also eroding investor confidence were the numerous global trade tensions, with capital raisers watching for signs of resolution before launching IPOs. With Africa looking to benefit from new global and regional trade agreements, the forecasts had been pointing to a potential recovery in capital markets in the next few years, but this might be delayed as the uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19 in Africa reaches its peak.

IPOs in the region are therefore expected to decline, not directly because of the virus as is the case with equities, but because COVID-19 will have an effect on the underlying business case for IPO companies, which will impact on their ability to raise capital

Impact on financial institutions

Global financial institutions are currently assessing the impact of COVID-19 and reacting to its economic impact, ensuring they are able to adjust to new and unprecedented circumstances brought about by the virus. It remains to be seen whether the huge global economic downturn caused by decreased output in China will impact on African lenders and compel financial institutions on the continent to be more lenient towards borrowers and cut them some slack.

Impact on Local Markets

Since global economic growth is a key driver of commodity prices, local prices have been driven down by the virus’s global impact. The uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19 on local markets is expected to lead to increased risk aversion from investors who are waiting to see its potential impact in Africa. On the plus side, a temporary fall in share prices provides opportunities for prudent investors.

Impact of the Insurance sector

Both businesses and individuals in Africa might find they are uninsured for any COVID-19 impacts as losses related to an epidemic or pandemic would usually not be covered in insurance policies, irrespective of whether the insurance covers business interruption, property damage, product losses or personal life and non-life insurance or even travel insurance.

As COVID-19 is a new disease, it would not have been specifically listed in existing insurance contracts. Many business interruption policies will include clauses for extended damage, but it is unlikely that these extensions will provide coverage under the current circumstances. As such, the wording of policies should be carefully checked.

Some insurance companies who provide cancelled event coverage that specifically includes references to epidemics or pandemics could be impacted. Reuters reported that financial services firm Jefferies estimated the insured cost of the Tokyo Olympics to be around USD 2 billion – including television rights, hospitality and sponsorship.

Morne van der Merwe, Managing Partner, and Wildu du Plessis, Head of Africa, Baker McKenzie Johannesburg

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Bill Seeking Creation of Unified Emergency Number Passes Second Reading

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Unified Emergency Number

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s crisis-response bill seeking to establish a single, toll-free, three-digit emergency number for nationwide use passed for second reading in the Senate this week.

Sponsored by Mr Abdulaziz Musa Yar’adua, the proposed legislation aims to replace the country’s chaotic patchwork of emergency lines with a unified code—112—that citizens can dial for police, fire, medical, rescue and other life-threatening situations.

Lawmakers said the reform is urgently needed to address delays, miscommunication and avoidable deaths linked to Nigeria’s fragmented response system amid rising insecurity.

Leading debate, Mr Yar’adua said Nigeria has outgrown the “operational disorder” caused by multiple emergency numbers in Lagos, Abuja, Ogun and other states for ambulance services, police intervention, fire incidents, domestic violence, child abuse and other crises.

He said, “This bill seeks to provide for a nationwide toll-free emergency number that will aid the implementation of a national system of reporting emergencies.

“The presence of multiple emergency numbers in Nigeria has been identified as an impediment to getting accelerated emergency response.”

Mr Yar’adua noted that the reform would bring Nigeria in line with global best practices, citing the United States, United Kingdom and India, countries where a single emergency line has improved coordination, enhanced location tracking and strengthened first responders’ efficiency.

With an estimated 90 per cent of Nigerians owning mobile phones, he said the unified number would significantly widen public access to emergency services.

Under the bill, all calls and text messages would be routed to the nearest public safety answering point or control room.

He urged the Senate to fast-track the bill’s passage, stressing the need for close collaboration with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), relevant agencies and telecom operators to ensure nationwide coverage.

Senator Ali Ndume described the reform as “timely and very, very important,” warning that the absence of a reliable reporting channel has worsened Nigeria’s security vulnerabilities.

“One of the challenges we are having during this heightened insecurity is lack of proper or effective communication with the affected agencies,” Ndume said.

“If we do this, we are enhancing and contributing to solving the security challenges and other related criminalities we are facing,” he added.

Also speaking in support, Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno said a centralised emergency number would remove barriers to citizen reporting and strengthen public involvement in security management.

He said, “Our security community is always calling on the general public to report what they see.

“There is a need for government to create an avenue where the public can report what they see without any hindrance. The bill would give strength and muscular expression to national calls for vigilance.”

The bill was referred to the Senate Committee on Communications for further legislative work and is expected to be returned for final consideration within four weeks.

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Tinubu Swears-in Ex-CDS Christopher Musa as Defence Minister

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The former chief of defence staff (CDS), Mr Christopher Musa, has been sworn-in as the new Minister of Defence.

The retired General of the Nigerian Army took the oath of office for his new position on Thursday in Abuja.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, confirmed this development in a post shared on X, formerly Twitter, today.

“General Christopher Musa takes oath of office as Nigeria’s new defence minister,” he wrote on the social media platform this afternoon.

Earlier, President Bola Tinubu thanked the Senate for confirming Mr Musa when he was screened for the post on Wednesday.

“Two days ago, I transmitted the name of General Christopher G. Musa, our immediate past Chief of Defence Staff and a fine gentleman, to the Nigerian Senate for confirmation as the Federal Minister of Defence.

“I want to commend the Nigerian Senate for its expedited confirmation of General Musa yesterday. His appointment comes at a critical juncture in our lives as a Nation,” he also posted on his personal page X on Thursday.

The former military officer is taking over from Mr Badaru Abubakar, who resigned on Sunday on health grounds.

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Presidential Directives Helping to Remove Energy Bottlenecks—Verheijen

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Cut Energy Costs

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, Mrs Olu Verheijen, says Presidential Directives 41 and 42 have emerged as the most transformative policy tools reshaping Nigeria’s oil and gas investment landscape in more than a decade, by helping eliminate bottlenecks.

Mrs Verheijen made this assertion while speaking at the Practical Nigerian Content Forum 2025, noting that the directives issued by her principal in May 2025, are specifically designed to eliminate rent-seeking, slash project timelines, reduce contracting costs, and restore investor confidence in the Nigerian upstream sector.

“These directives are not just policy documents; they are enforceable commitments to make Nigeria competitive again,” she declared.

She noted that before the directives were issued, Nigeria faced chronic delays in contracting cycles, which discouraged capital inflows and stalled major upstream projects.

“For years, investment stagnated because our processes were too slow and too expensive. Presidential Directives 41 and 42 are removing those bottlenecks once and for all,” she said.

According to her, the directives have already begun to shift investor sentiment, unlocking billions of dollars in new commitments from international oil companies.

“We are seeing unprecedented investment inflows. Shell, Chevron and others are returning with confidence because they can now see credible timelines and competitive project economics,” Verheijen said.

Speaking on the link between streamlined contracting and local content development, she stressed that the directives were crafted to reinforce, not weaken, Nigerian participation.

“Local content is not an obstacle; it is a catalyst. It helps us meet national objectives, contain costs, and deliver projects faster when applied correctly,” she explained.

Mrs Verheijen highlighted that the directives complement the government’s data-driven approach to refining local content requirements while ensuring Nigerian talent and enterprises remain central to new investments.

“Our goal is to empower Nigerian companies with opportunities that are commercially sound and globally competitive,” she said.

She pointed to the current spike in industry activity, over 60 active drilling rigs, as evidence that the directives are driving real operational change.

“We have moved from rhetoric to results. These directives have triggered a new cycle of upstream development,” she said.

The energy expert added that the reforms are critical to achieving Nigeria’s production ambition of 3 million barrels of oil and 10 billion standard cubic feet (bscf) of gas per day by 2030.

“To meet these targets, we need speed, efficiency, and collaboration across the value chain. The directives are the foundation for that,” she noted.

She also linked the directives to Nigeria’s broader regional ambitions, including its leadership role in the African Energy Bank.

“With a $100 million facility now launched, we are ensuring that investment translates into jobs, technology transfer, and long-term value for Nigeria,” she said.

Mrs Verheijen concluded by urging the industry to uphold the spirit and letter of the presidential instructions.

“These directives are a collective responsibility. Government, operators, financiers, and host communities must work together to deliver the Nigeria we envision,” she said. “We remain committed to ensuring Nigeria remains Africa’s premier investment destination,” she said.

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