Following the spring pullback, when the price of the world’s major crypto currency dipped below $75,000 in early April, BTC rallied 65% and was trading slightly above the $123,000 level by mid-July. The major drivers for such an impressive rally include renewed investor optimism, rising institutional flows, a favourable regulatory environment, and skewed BTC supply. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker comments: ‘In many ways, the stars have aligned for Bitcoin holders, with significant improvements in risk sentiment and supportive regulatory news truly propelling its ascent’.

Indeed, the rally kicked off on 22 April, sparked by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s suggestion of a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. The following day, President Donald Trump further boosted sentiment by hinting at lower tariffs for China and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This news improved risk appetite and sent BTCUSD up by 6.82% on 22 April alone. Optimism for global trade was further fueled on 8 May, when Donald Trump unveiled a new trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK)—the first since the ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause—propelling BTCUSD higher by an additional 6.38%.

Apart from positive headlines, deeper structural transformations—notably, a mismatch between supply and demand—have also played a key role. It is no secret that Bitcoin’s total final emission is limited to 21 million coins. Additionally, bitcoin undergoes a “halving” event approximately every four years, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, thus limiting the daily average supply of new bitcoins. Following the most recent halving, a new Bitcoin block is now mined roughly every 10 minutes, and the reward per block is 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin currently stands at just around 450 coins per day. This is how it is calculated:

(6 blocks/hour×24 hours/day)×3.125 BTC/block = 144 blocks/day×3.125 BTC/block = 450 BTC/day.

This daily issuance has been vastly outpaced by demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been absorbing up to 10,000 BTC per day. A mismatch between natural supply and ETF-driven demand has created a severe shortage in available coins, fueling aggressive upward price momentum. The imbalance has been exacerbated by continued investor preference for bitcoin vs other, less liquid, and less developed coins. Institutional flows into crypto investment vehicles have further amplified the rally, signalling growing mainstream adoption. BlackRock reported a 366% quarter-over-quarter surge in crypto ETF inflows in Q2 2025, with allocations rising to $14 billion, now comprising 16.5% of its total ETF flows. Similarly, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second consecutive $2 billion inflow week in mid-July.

This growing supply-demand imbalance has coincided with significant regulatory milestones in the U.S. Specifically, the Republicans have pushed forward three pieces of legislation (the Genius Act, the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the growing cryptocurrency market. The Genius Act, which focuses on stablecoins, creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for their issuance and oversight, has already been signed into law by President Trump, while the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act are yet to be passed by the Senate.

Overall, the increasing crypto interest and adoption drove the crypto market capitalization to hit $4 trillion on 18 July, reflecting its strength and maturity with bitcoin in particular becoming a central part of the global investment landscape.

BTC Rally Outlook: A Burning Topic
With so many factors working in Bitcoin’s favour, it seems reasonable to infer that its price will likely continue to go higher in the long term. And while this may be true, it is still important to highlight major risks that lie ahead. Kar Yong Ang, comments: ‘Technically, Bitcoin looks like it is preparing for a major downward correction. BTCUSD failed to hold above the 0.618 extension level of the bullish trend, which commenced in early April. The price has formed a long wick on the daily chart, signalling an exhaustion of the bullish trend. A decline towards the 112,000 level is now highly likely. A break below 112,000 would open the way towards the 105,000 level.’

Indeed, the failure to hold the 121,500 level on 14 July and the subsequent correction on 15 July occurred on very strong volume, meaning that traders are uncertain about the next big move and doubt that a rally can be sustained in the short term. Furthermore, fundamentals have turned sour lately. After a 0.1% increase in May, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, which is uncomfortably above the Fed’s target rate. This renewed inflationary pressure diminishes the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Fed and may exert bearish pressure on equity and crypto valuations. A similar scenario is evident in other major economies. For example, UK CPI rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May and also undermined the widespread anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). In other words, the global monetary policy may not be as accommodative as investors had hoped for previously, making them reluctant to purchase in risky assets

Three BTC price action scenarios
Kar Yong Ang of Octa Broker has come up with three potential scenarios for BTCUSD.

The most optimistic scenario envisions a continued upward climb beyond current highs, driven by persistent institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments. However, given signs of short-term overextension and waning upside momentum on the daily chart, this outcome appears less likely in the short term.

There is the risk of a deeper, prolonged correction, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory setbacks dampen sentiment. While not impossible, this scenario is seen as less probable for now, given strong underlying fundamentals such as limited BTC supply and sustained demand from ETFs.

A more probable, base-case scenario is a modest correction toward support levels, followed by a resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a pullback would allow the market to consolidate and establish a stronger foundation, ultimately preserving the bullish structure while shaking out weak hands.

Kar Yong Ang comments: ‘Bitcoin looks a little stretched right now, and you can see it struggling to punch clean through resistance at the highs. A pullback into the $112,000–105,000 area would actually be healthy—that’s where smart money will likely step back in. The fundamentals are still stacked in Bitcoin’s favour: supply is tight, ETFs money keeps flowing, and regulatory progress is finally breaking through’.

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