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COUNTRY & SECTOR RISKS – June 2025 The great leap backwards: 23 sectors and 4 countries downgraded
In this environment, and in view of the measures already in place, Coface has downgraded 23 sectors and 4 countries.
Key trends:
- US tariffs, even if paused or reduced, have already reached historically high levels
- Nearly 80% of advanced economies recorded an increase in defaults in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024
- The metal sector is the most affected, and traditional industrial sectors (automotive and chemicals) are under pressure.
- Other sectors that have been downgraded include:
- In the United States, information and communication technologies and retail
- In China, textiles and clothing, impacted by customs duties.
Global economy: uncertainty is the new normal
The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever, as it depends heavily on (geo)political events and the trade decisions of the US President. The reintroduction of tariffs after the 90-day suspension periods (9 July for the rest of the world, 12 August for China) could have a significant impact on global growth. A marked slowdown is expected (2.2% growth in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026), with mainly downside risks – growth of below 2% cannot be ruled out if the geopolitical and trade situations escalate.
The same uncertainty naturally surrounds inflation, whose current stability could be jeopardised. It could reach 4% in the US by the end of 2025, with broader upside risks subsisting in the event of higher energy prices. The major central banks are likely to respond with a continued cautious stance. However, if US inflation is brought under control, the Fed could cut rates as early as the autumn of 2025. The ECB has announced that it will maintain its rate-cutting policy, but added that it is close to its terminal rate.
Uncertainty is all the greater in Europe as long-delayed fiscal consolidation policies could finally begin to be implemented, while Germany is engaged in a stimulus programme whose scale is difficult to assess at this stage.
Tensions in the Middle East and oversupply: oil balances on a high wire
The Israel-Iran conflict has reigniting fears over oil. A disruption or even a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (the passage for 20 million barrels per day, or 20% of global supply) could push prices above $100 per barrel. Excluding this geopolitical environment, however, fundamentals point to a fall in prices on back of production increases in non-OPEC+ countries, demand weakened by trade tensions and the reintroduction of volumes by OPEC+ members (2.2 million barrels per day). Barring a major crisis, prices should continue to be extremely volatile but remain within a range of $65 to $75 per barrel.
Advanced economies: a mix of resilience and vulnerability
In Europe, Germany saw a minor uptick in growth in the first quarter, France remains sluggish, Italy could run out of steam, while Spain continues to benefit from tourism and European funds to maintain momentum.
Emerging economies are the first victims of trade turmoil
In China, the temporary truce on tariffs has led to a surge in exports, but the outlook is fragile. India, despite generating growth of more than 7% in the first quarter, is seeing consumption slow and its fiscal headroom shrink.
In Latin America, Mexico is bearing the brunt of trade uncertainty, with zero growth expected in 2025. Brazil, after a rebound in agriculture following El Niño-induced losses, is expected to contract on back of restrictive monetary policy (key rate raised to 15%). In Argentina, the momentum generated by Mileinomics is strong and, despite its low foreign exchange reserves, could post GDP growth of 5% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
Metallurgy: 600 million tonnes of steel overcapacity weighing on the global sector
The metallurgy sector is experiencing a major crisis, having recorded global steel overcapacity of 600 million tonnes in 2024, which represents 25% of global production. The unfavourable macroeconomic environment, energy tensions and new steel tariffs are exacerbating the situation for steelmakers, particularly in Canada, Mexico and Europe.
Canada: the economy is faltering under the weight of tariffs
With 75% of its exports headed for the US, Canada is one of the countries most exposed to the trade war. Growth has slowed significantly after a surge at the end of 2024. Consumption is falling, investment is weakening and unemployment stands at 6.9%, its highest level since 2017.
Exports, boosted by the menace of customs duties, contracted sharply in April. The automotive and metals sectors, which were hit by tariff increases of up to 50%, have been particularly affected. The upcoming revision of the USMCA agreement, which is expected to be brought forward to the end of 2025, could further exacerbate the country’s economic instability.
Read the full study here
Hashtag: #Coface
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
COFACE: FOR TRADE
As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for almost 80 years, Coface helps companies grow and navigate in an uncertain and volatile environment.
Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with a full range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Risk insurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge technology to make trade happen, in both domestic and export markets. In 2024, Coface employed +5,200 people and recorded a turnover of ~€1.845 billion.
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Etiqa’s Project Firefly Reinforces Mangrove Ecosystem in Sungai Panjang in Collaboration with Malaysian Nature Society
Through Etiqa’s Project Firefly, Etiqa is taking proactive steps to preserve and sustain the ecosystem by planting 130 Sonneratia Caseolaris or locally known as Berembang saplings and 200 Sonneratia Caseolaris seeds, undertaking habitat restoration works, and mobilising 50 Etiqa volunteers for a community-driven initiative along Sungai Panjang, covering a total stretch of 10 kilometres. In addition, an awareness session was conducted by Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Faculty of Science which aimed to educate participants on the ecological importance of fireflies and the need for long-term conservation.
Fireflies play an important role as indicators of mangrove ecosystem health, which in turn supports environmental balance and benefits surrounding communities. However, across Malaysia, firefly populations are declining due to rapid habitat loss caused by river pollution, deforestation, and increasing light pollution along mangrove-lined rivers. These threats not only endanger native species but also affect the livelihoods of local fishermen and villagers who rely on healthy river ecosystems and firefly-based eco-tourism. Protecting congregating firefly zones through the preservation of adequate vegetation buffers along riverbanks is therefore critical to ensuring the long-term survival of these species and the sustainability of local livelihoods.
Fukhairudin Mohd Yusof, CEO of Etiqa General Insurance Berhad (EGIB) said, “We initiated Etiqa’s Project Firefly as conserving native firefly species is deeply connected to the well-being of the communities that co-exist around them. By conserving firefly habitats, we are not only protecting an irreplaceable part of Malaysia’s biodiversity but also helping sustain the eco-tourism and river-based livelihoods of Sungai Panjang residents. This reflects Etiqa’s purpose in Making the World a Better Place that includes meaningful environmental action which strengthens both nature and society, creating long-term value for future generations.”
Mr. I.S Shanmugaraj, Executive Director of Malaysia Nature Society says, “Fireflies are natural indicators of a healthy mangrove ecosystem, and their presence reflects the overall condition of our rivers and surrounding environments. We commend Etiqa for taking proactive steps through Etiqa’s Project Firefly to address the growing threats of habitat degradation along fireflies corridor. Meaningful conservation requires collective action, and we hope this initiative will inspire more companies to collaborate with environmental organisations and local communities to protect biodiversity while supporting sustainable livelihoods for the long term.”Hashtag: #Etiqamy
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About Etiqa
Etiqa is a multi-channel distributor of Insurance and Takaful products via its 10,000 agency force, 44 branches and 17 offices, over 490 bancassurance network (via Maybank branches, third-party banks, as well as co-operatives and brokers) through its presence in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia.
In striving to make the world a better place, Etiqa’s Sustainability journey focuses on internal initiatives that reduces its carbon footprint and increases its social impact, as well as external solutions that allow its clients to do the same.
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PolyU research teams and startups shine at CES 2026, winning three prestigious innovation awards
Prof. Christopher CHAO, PolyU Senior Vice President (Research and Innovation), remarked, “PolyU is committed to nurturing innovative research talent with both national and international outlooks. We empower our teams by leading them to major international innovation events and fostering close collaboration among industry, academia, research and investment sectors on a global level, creating opportunities for the overseas expansion of PolyU startups. PolyU was the sole university from Hong Kong to exhibit at the event, with its participating teams making up 30% of the Hong Kong delegation, contributing to Hong Kong’s advancement into an international innovation and technology hub. Our record-breaking performance at this year’s CES affirms international recognition of PolyU research and innovation, propelling our teams to continue striving along the path of innovation and technology to create even more profound social impact.”
Leveraging its robust research strengths and its unique startup ecosystem, PolyVentures, the University actively supports its research teams and startups in developing innovative technologies, bringing Hong Kong research achievements to the global stage. The Smart Firefighting Robot, developed by Mr WANG Meng, a PhD candidate of the Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering as well as Founder of PolyU startup Widemount Dynamics Tech Limited, along with his team, achieved the highest score in the “Products in Support of Human Security for All” category and earned the prestigious “Best of Innovation Award”. The Powered Rehab Skateboard, developed by Prof. Kenneth FONG, Associate Dean of the Graduate School and Associate Head of the Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, received an “Innovation Award” in the “Accessibility and Longevity” category. The FattaLab® Fatty Liver Diagnostic Device, developed by a team spearheaded by Prof. ZHENG Yongping, Henry G. Leong Professor in Biomedical Engineering, Chair Professor of Biomedical Engineering, and Founder and Chief Scientist of PolyU startup Eieling Technology Limited, also won an “Innovation Award” in the “Digital Health” category.
The three award-winning innovations aim to enhance human security or health through cutting-edge technologies. The AI-driven Smart Firefighting Robot features autonomous patrol, burning materials classification, fire extinguishing and real-time data sharing functions in smoke-filled environments, protecting firefighters and the public simultaneously. The Powered Rehab Skateboard is a portable and cost-effective robotic system that supports home-based and community rehabilitation for stroke patients. The skateboard facilitates motor recovery in hemiparetic upper limbs and allows users to engage in effective therapy. The FattaLab® Fatty Liver Diagnostic Device is the world’s first lightweight intelligent assessment system for fatty liver detection. Weighs only 120 grams, the device can complete fatty liver assessment within 30 seconds, achieving detection accuracy at medical-grade standards.
Organised by the Consumer Technology Association, CES is one of the world’s largest and most influential consumer electronics exhibitions, spotlighting cutting-edge technologies for modern living. This year, CES attracted over 4,500 exhibitors from around the globe. The PolyU startups participating in the exhibition were as follows:
| PolyU Startups | Featured Innovations | Company Representatives |
| AniMed Technology Limited | Contactless real-time AI-driven health monitoring | Dr LYU Weimin Co-founder and CEO, AniMed Technology Limited |
| CyanSE Smart Energy Tech Limited | AI-powered energy optimisation platforms for smart buildings | Ms Amber ZHANG Co-founder, CyanSE Smart Energy Tech Limited |
| DRESIO Limited | AI-powered physiotherapy assessments software solution | Mr Alexander YING CEO, DRESIO Limited |
| Eieling Technology Limited | FattaLab® Fatty Liver Diagnostic Device (CES 2026 Innovation Award) |
Prof. ZHENG Yongping Henry G. Leong Professor in Biomedical Engineering, Chair Professor of Biomedical Engineering, PolyU; Founder and Chief Scientist, Eieling Technology Limited |
| Entoptica Limited | Cutting-edge ophthalmic diagnostic technologies | Dr Mukhit KULMAGANBETOV Senior Research Fellow, InnoHK Centre for Eye and Vision Research; CEO, Entoptica Limited |
| Feelings Group Limited | AI-powered computer vision solution | Dr WONG Wing-sze Research Assistant Professor, Department of Language Science and Technology, PolyU; Clinical Consultant and Co-inventor, Feelings Group Limited Ms YIP Chi-hay |
| Gembody Limited | Next-generation portable AI ultrasound system | Ms MAO Qian CEO, Gembody Limited Dr YANG Fan CTO, Gembody Limited |
| ImageVector MedTech Limited | AI-Vision for Joint Degeneration
|
Dr JIANG Tianshu
Executive Director, ImageVector MedTech Limited |
| Immune Materials Limited | Innovative long-lasting antimicrobial self-disinfection materials | Prof. Chris LO Kwan-yu Professor, Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies, PolyU; Co-founder, Immune Materials Limited Prof. KAN Chi-wai |
| Innobound Limited | Portable smart terminal for emotional interaction, health monitoring and daily living assistance | Ms GAO Lan CEO and Founder, Innobound Limited |
| MedVision Limited | AI-powered medical imaging solution | Prof. CAI Jing Head and Professor, Department of Health Technology and Informatics, PolyU; Consultant, MedVision Limited Dr MA Zongrui |
| Mirror Caring Limited | Knee health management solution | Prof. Stephen WANG Jia Professor, School of Design, PolyU; Founder, Mirror Caring Limited |
| Nuvatech Limited | Next-Gen Fashion OS powered by Multi-modal AI | Mr DENG Yanheng Founder, Nuvatech Limited |
| On-Skin Wearable Technology Limited | Wearable Biomedical Electronic Device | Dr Rayman GONG Founder and CEO, On-Skin Wearable Technology Limited |
| ReSaTech Limited | AI solutions for product reliability | Mr Ricky LAW CEO, ReSaTech Limited |
| UbiquiTech Innovations Limited | Edge-AI robot for autonomous inspection and cleaning in confined spaces | Prof. CAO Jiannong Vice President (Education), Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Professor in Data Science, Chair Professor of Distributed and Mobile Computing, PolyU; Founder and Chief Scientist, UbiquiTech Innovations Limited Dr LIANG Zhixuan |
| Vcare Vision Technology Limited | Non-invasive myopia prevention solution | Dr TANG Yuk-ming Senior Lecturer, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, PolyU; Co-founder, Vcare Vision Technology Limited |
| Widemount Dynamics Tech Limited | Smart Firefighting Robot
(CES 2026 Best of Innovation Award) |
Mr WANG Meng PhD candidate, Building Environment and Energy Engineering, PolyU; Founder, Widemount Dynamics Tech Limited |
| XOXO Beverages Limited | Automated Cocktail Machine for improvements event and hospitality efficiency | Mr Nicholas YU Wo-ping Founder, XOXO Beverages Limited |
Hashtag: #PolyU
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
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Starlight Centre Launches New Program For Students with Autism Entering Mainstream Primary Schools.
Peer Modeling
Starlight Centre has provided specialised care services for children with high-functioning autism from primary 1 to 6 and have supported many students who are now ready to demonstrate positive behaviours from the programmes. Through peer modelling, younger students can observe and learn from their more experienced peers, helping them understand the acceptable boundaries of good behaviour.
RISE™
The Starlight RISE™ Primary School Readiness Program effectively prepares young children for formal education by developing their physical, social, emotional, and cognitive skills through engaging, play-based activities.
By actively involving parents in the process through comprehensive evaluations and strong partnerships, Starlight Centre aims to make parents feel valued and confident that their child’s development is being supported holistically, beyond just basic skills.
Hashtag: #AutismEducation #SpecialNeedsEducation #EarlyChildhoodEducation #ParentingSupport #StarlightCentre
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About Starlight Centre
Starlight was founded by a group of parents and seasoned autism professionals who have experienced first-hand the challenges of finding the most effective therapy programs, preschools, and after-school care services. We understand what you’re going through and are here to help. No matter your child’s needs, come to us, and we will connect you with the right resources.
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