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Gold market: May 2025 overview and June 2025 outlook. A monthly digest by the global broker Octa
Overall, the past month presented a rather bumpy ride for traders as it was fueled by a series of notable market-moving events (outlined below). Gold investors contended with persistent trade-related news, shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, rapidly changing monetary policy expectations and U.S. recession probabilities as well as escalating concerns regarding global debt and weakening U.S. dollar. Demonstrating its traditional role, gold once again highlighted its inherent value as a safe-haven asset, potentially indicating continued positive performance in the near future.
- 5-6 May. XAUUSD rallied by more than 6% in just two days as buying from China increased after its markets reopened following a long Labour Day holiday, which ran from 1 May to 5 May. In addition, President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on foreign films renewed trade war fears, weakened the U.S. dollar, and made gold more appealing to holders of other currencies.
- 7-8 May and 12 May. Gold started to pull back from the $3,430 level as the market began to price in the potential easing of trade tensions ahead of the scheduled meeting between the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier of China He Lifeng in Geneva, Switzerland. Furthermore, the U.S. announced a ‘breakthrough’ trade agreement with Britain, which had an additional bullish impact on the greenback (and a bearish impact on the bullion). Improving risk sentiment and rising hopes for the normalisation of global trade relations culminated on 12 May when the U.S. and China announced that they managed to reach a temporary trade deal. As a result, gold prices plunged by as much as 3% on 12 May and continued to fall for another three trading sessions.
- 15 May. Gold began to erase earlier losses after touching critical support in the 3,150 area, which triggered a flow of pending buy-limit orders, helping pull XAUUSD up by almost 2%. In addition, soft U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data prompted investors to expect more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), further supporting gold prices.
- 20 May. As investors were still digesting the long-term implications of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. debt, U.S. President Donald Trump was attempting to convince his fellow Republicans in the U.S. Congress to unite behind a sweeping tax-cut bill, which is widely expected to worsen the federal budget deficit outlook. As a result, the U.S. dollar continued to fall, while gold’s price rose towards $3,300 per oz.
- 23 May. Gold prices rose by almost 2%, achieving their best week in six. This was largely due to investors seeking a safe haven as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats, recommending a 50% tariff on European Union (EU) imports from 1 June and stating that Apple would face a 25% tariff on iPhones made outside the U.S.
- 29 May. After declining for the previous three trading sessions, XAUUSD rose again after a U.S. appeals court reinstated President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, just a day after most of the tariffs were blocked by a trade court.
‘May was a wild ride for the gold market thanks to America’s erratic trade policies,‘ says Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker. ‘Ever since Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs in April, they have been repeatedly delayed, adjusted, challenged, blocked and reinstated, sowing chaos, breeding uncertainty and leaving traders with no clear direction‘.
Indeed, as mentioned previously, the XAUUSD monthly chart shows a significant doji candlestick for May, indicating trader indecision and a potential mid-term reversal. In fact, the short-term trend from 22 April can generally be described as ‘sideways’, as traders are unsure about the bullion’s next big move..However, the broader, long-term trend is still decidedly bullish, as gold’s price remains comfortably above key trendlines and MAs. Overall, chaotic U.S. trade policy, rising fears about the sustainability of the U.S. twin deficits (fiscal and trade), endless geopolitical tensions and political instability, and solid structural demand on the part of central banks helped keep the bullion’s price near all-time highs. In addition, the big technical picture has been positive, resulting in trend buying by investors.
Physical demand for bullion has been a key driver behind the rising price of gold in recent months. Just recently, a Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) report showed that China’s total gold imports via Hong Kong nearly tripled in April, hitting their highest level in more than a year. A total of 58.61 metric tons (mt) of gold was imported via Hong Kong in April, up 178.17% from 21.07 tons in March. And these figures may not even provide a complete picture of Chinese purchases, as gold is also imported via Shanghai and Beijing. Indeed, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been actively adding gold to its reserves for six straight months. According to the World Gold Council, PBoC added 2.2 mt to its gold holdings in April, which now stand at 2,295 mt, 6.8% of total reserve assets. Other countries, notably India and Russia, also continued to stockpile gold. Overall, according to global broker Octa’s estimates, global central banks have added more than 240 tons of gold to their reserves in Q1 2025.
Interestingly, U.S. trade policy also affected physical flows among Western nations. According to Swiss customs data, gold imports to Switzerland from the U.S. jumped to the highest monthly level since at least April 2012 after excluding precious metals from U.S. import tariffs. Reuters reported that Switzerland, the world’s biggest bullion refining and transit hub, and Britain, home to the world’s largest over-the-counter gold trading hub, registered massive outflows to the U.S. over December-March as traders sought to hedge against the possibility of broad U.S. tariffs hitting bullion imports.
Apart from central banks, global investors have also remained quite bullish on gold. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), large speculators (leveraged funds and money managers) were still net-long COMEX gold futures and options as of 27 May, 2025. Long positions totalled 152,034 contracts vs only 34,797 short contracts. Meanwhile, according to LSEG, a financial firm, flows into physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached almost 50 mt year-to-date. Most recently, however, speculative bullish interest in gold and ETFs flows have been subsiding.
‘Although large speculators remain net-long, the size of their exposure is substantially smaller compared to what it was back in September 2024, when the uncertainty around the U.S. Presidential elections fuelled bullish bets‘, says Kar Yong Ang, adding that ETFs actually recorded a minor outflow in the first half of May.
Outlook
Fundamentally, the outlook for gold looks bright, but there are important caveats. We have singled out three important factors that will continue to play out in June and the rest of 2025.
Geopolitical uncertainty
Lingering global economic and geopolitical risks continue to play out, with the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and the rest of the world, particularly China, being the most critical factor affecting the gold market and the global financial system.
The conflicts in the Middle East, such as the Israel-Hamas hostilities, a brief spat between India and Pakistan, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have destabilised world politics and raised many fears ranging from oil and food supply disruptions to the prospect of a worldwide conflict. Gold, considered a ‘safe-haven’ asset, typically sees increased demand during political uncertainty and instability. While it is extremely difficult to project the resolution of geopolitical conflicts, let alone to forecast the emergence of new ones, peace negotiations in the hottest regions have already commenced. ‘Conflicting parties seem to have at least started to talk. A cease-fire in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is now more likely than it was only a month ago, but a lasting peace may take years to achieve. Either way, any progress in negotiations or even a temporary cessation of hostilities will improve risk sentiment and have a bearish impact on gold,‘ says Kar Yong Ang, global broker Octa analyst.
The looming 8 July tariff deadline imposed by U.S. President Trump further complicates the global political landscape, adding another reason for gold prices to remain elevated. As of today, the United Kingdom is the only country that has signed a new trade deal with the U.S., while trade talks with dozens of other countries have progressed too slowly. Negotiations remain unwieldy, while China and the U.S., the world’s two largest economies, continue to accuse one another of breaching the Geneva trade deal. As long as trade tensions persist, investors will be reluctant to sell gold.
Global monetary policy
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars and is therefore highly sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates, inflation, and the greenback’s value. As already mentioned, the market is positioned for a dovish Fed. In fact, the latest interest rates swap market data implies roughly 75 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the Fed by the end of December 2025. It is widely expected that other central banks will not fall far behind. For example, after the latest Eurozone inflation figures came out lower than expected, investors now expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of December 2025. Likewise, the Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to announce at least two rate cuts of 25 bps each before the end of the year. Fundamentally, a less tight (or looser) monetary policy worldwide is a major bullish factor for gold. Because gold has no passive income and does not pay any interest, the opportunity cost of holding it becomes lower when central banks reduce their policy rates. The main risk, of course, is inflation. Should it remain above central banks’ targets or, even worse, start to increase, the Fed and its counterparts will be forced to hold the rates higher for longer.
‘Inflation is a major concern. Tariff-related price increases are yet to be felt, and although U.S. consumer 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations have eased, they remain very high by historical standards. I think some central banks, and maybe even the Fed, will prefer to wait until trade tensions are resolved before committing fully to rate cuts,‘ says Kar Yong Ang.
Physical demand
Physical demand for gold may continue to increase primarily because China, a significant gold consumer, remains an active buyer, but also because global central banks in general are increasingly turning to gold to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar. Specifically, China has seen its national currency, the renminbi (RMB), appreciate more than 2% over the past month. This is not a welcoming development for a country whose economy heavily depends on exports. Thus, Chinese authorities may relax gold import quotas to stop the yuan from appreciating too much. As a result, the physical and investment demand for gold in China may rise in the months ahead. As for India, the demand for gold may temporarily slow due to seasonal factors, but is unlikely to reverse. Indian jewellers may delay making new stock acquisitions as monsoon rains are arriving, while the wedding season is concluding, but that will only have a temporary impact.
Technical picture
Kar Yong Ang, global broker Octa analyst, said: ‘From a technical perspective, XAUUSD looks bullish no matter how you look at it. 3,397, 3,438, and 3,463-3,471 levels are still real targets for bulls. Only a drop below 3,125 will invalidate the underlying bullish trend, and even then XAUUSD is more likely to trend sideways than to go deep down.’
Conclusion
Overall, we continue to see a generally bullish picture for gold, but it may be changing soon. Fundamentally, gold is still a ‘buy’ but no longer a ‘screaming buy’, as we labelled it in our August 2024 Digest. Wall Street analysts predict higher prices. Goldman Sachs recently hiked its 2025 gold forecast to $3,700 per oz, particularly due to strong central bank demand, implying a 10% upside potential from the current levels. At the same time, large speculators have already started to reduce their net-long exposure, while the outlook for the global monetary policy remains uncertain due to tariffs. Investors, in general, may be a bit too optimistic when it comes to rate cuts.
‘As things currently stand, it is still very hard to draw a bearish case for gold, but I do think that the bullish trend is showing first signs of exhaustion and some consolidation is likely to follow‘, said Kar Yong Ang, global broker Octa analyst. Next month will be critical for the gold market as it features seven key rate decisions and will likely be packed with news related to trade negotiations. Traders should be cautious as June news may essentially determine the XAUUSD trend for the next six months.
| 4 June | Bank of Canada meeting |
| 5 June | European Central Bank meeting |
| 6 June | U.S. Nonfarm Payroll |
| 11 June | U.S. Consumer Price Index |
| 15-16 June | Group-7 Summit |
| 17 June | Bank of Japan meeting |
| 18 June | Federal Reserve meeting |
| 19 June | Swiss National Bank meeting |
| 19 June | Bank of England meeting |
| 20 June | People’s Bank of China meeting |
| 23 June | S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices |
| 24-25 June | North Atlantic Treaty Organization Summit |
| 26-27 June | European Council Summit |
| 27 June | U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index |
| 30 June | German Consumer Price Index |
___
Hashtag: #Octa
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Octa
Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.
In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
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Powered by State-of-the-art Technology and Full Transparency
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About Ultima Markets
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2nd MOTIFX – Embracing the Beauty of Chinese Culture Culture to Nature – A Surreal Garden of Botanical Patterns
Organised by the Hong Kong Design Institute (HKDI) under the Vocational Training Council (VTC) and sponsored by the Cultural and Creative Industries Development Agency (CCIDA), MOTIFX invites emerging designers to reinterpret traditional Chinese motifs for contemporary contexts, seamlessly integrating historical patterns into modern objects, interiors, and lifestyle products while deepening new generations’ engagement with their cultural heritage.
The 2nd MOTIFX – Embracing the Beauty of Chinese Culture invites designers to explore the mystical side of Chinese characters, with a particular focus on Radical Grass (艹 / 艸) and its evocative connection to a surreal world of nature. While respectfully acknowledging the cultural and philosophical differences between Eastern and Western traditions, the project embraces nature’s whimsy and dreamlike beauty with open delight
This inspiration gives birth to the central theme: Culture to Nature – A Surreal Garden of Botanical Patterns. Curated by Michael LEUNG, the exhibition brings together numerous design students and local designers who are in studies across diverse disciplines to rediscover the vibrant potential of Chinese characters. In doing so, it redefines the relationship between cultural heritage and the natural world, resulting in an imaginative collection of patterns and design works that vividly capture the theme.
A key highlight is the immersive installation Surreal Garden, created by designers Moon.noon and Stickyline. Inspired by “Radical Grass” motifs designed by these young creatives, the duo transforms two-dimensional patterns into a multi-sensory experience. Visitors move seamlessly from the physical space into a digital dreamscape, journeying through the four seasons guided by the 24 traditional solar terms — from the blossoming of spring to the retreat of winter — tracing the boundless rhythms of nature.
This surreal journey continues throughout the exhibition, which showcases over 100 original patterns created by local design students, each derived from the 艹 radical. Like countless flowers blooming in a shared field, these works express diverse creative voices, yet all are rooted in the same ancient, ever-living origin — the enduring 艹 .
DesignInspire 2025 was transformed into this fantastical garden woven from Chinese characters and nature’s boundless poetry — and let your imagination take flight.
Curator: Michael LEUNG
Born in Hong Kong, Michael LEUNG earned his Master’s degree from Design Academy Eindhoven in the Netherlands, where he later founded Studio AA (previously MIRO). His practice spans graphic, product, and spatial design, often exploring the intersections of craftsmanship and industry, local culture, and sustainability. Recipient of the Hong Kong Young Design Talent Award and Perspective 40 Under 40, his work has been showcased at Milan Design Week, Dutch Design Week, and other major international exhibitions. In recent years, he has collaborated with institutions such as the Vitra Design Museum (Germany) and the V&A (UK), extending his creative vision into exhibition curation.
Participating Artist: Moon.noon
Moon.noon (KONG Fan-leung) is a real-time visual artist who masterfully blends data-driven storytelling with immersive audio-visual and sensory experiences. A former user-experience designer, he now transforms complex sources — climate data, urban landscapes, audience interaction — into powerfully evocative visual languages. His works have appeared at M+, Hong Kong Chinese Orchestra, West Kowloon Freespace Jazz Festival, and in collaborations with Coca-Cola, LG, and Samsung.
Participating Artist: STICKYLINE
Founded in 2011 by Hong Kong creative artists Mic LEONG and Soilworm LAI, STICKYLINE is celebrated for its large-scale polyhedral sculptures that reveal the beauty of creative engineering, mathematics, and geometry. Working primarily with paper and metal, and integrating kinetics, sound, and light, the duo produces minimalist, durable, and strikingly futuristic installations, site-specific works, and private commissions that have earned widespread acclaim in the design world over the years.
Moroso × HKDI Furniture Collaboration Project
The exhibition showcases a creative collaboration between renowned Italian luxury furniture brand Moroso and design students from the HKDI’s Department of Architecture, Interior and Product Design (AIP). Together, they present the forward-looking project with MOTIFX patterns printed on the fabrics to “Designing Clothes for Furniture Objects.”
This initiative reimagines furniture as living bodies to be dressed, where textiles and soft elements become expressive garments. Moving beyond surface aesthetics, students explore adaptability, sensory depth, and emotional resonance, while engaging with ideas of circularity, modularity, and service-oriented design. The design challenge invites them to create interchangeable and upgradeable “furniture garments” that respond to personal habits, environments, and even special occasions.
Event Details:
The 2nd MOTIFX – Embracing the Beauty of Chinese Culture Exhibition at DESIGNINSPIRE 2025
Date : 4 Dec – 6 Dec, 2025
Time : 9:30am-7:30pm
Venue : Booth no. 3E-D02, Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
The 2nd MOTIFX – Embracing the Beauty of Chinese Culture Exhibition
Date : 3 Mar – 31 Mar, 2026
Time : 10:30AM – 7:30PM (Monday to Sunday)
Venue : 2/F, LANDMARK ATRIUM
The 2nd MOTIFX – Embracing the Beauty of Chinese Culture Exhibition at FASHION INSTYLE, HOME INSTYLE EXHIBITION 2026
Date : 27 Apr – 30 Apr, 2026
Time : 9:00AM – 6:00PM
Venue : Concourse Area, Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre
Hashtag: #MOTIFX
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About Vocational Training Council (VTC)
Established in 1982, the Vocational Training Council (VTC) is the largest vocational and professional education and training provider in Hong Kong. The mission of VTC is to provide a valued choice to school leavers and working people to acquire the values, knowledge and skills for lifelong learning and enhanced employability, and also to provide support to industries for their manpower development. VTC has 14 member institutions, namely the Technological and Higher Education Institute of Hong Kong (THEi), the Institute of Professional Education And Knowledge (PEAK), the School for Higher and Professional Education (SHAPE), the Hong Kong Institute of Vocational Education (IVE), the Hong Kong Design Institute (HKDI), the Hong Kong Institute of Information Technology (HKIIT), the Hotel and Tourism Institute (HTI), the Chinese Culinary Institute (CCI), the International Culinary Institute (ICI), the Maritime Services Training Institute (MSTI), Youth College, Pro-Act by VTC, the Integrated Vocational Development Centre (IVDC) and the Shine Skills Centre.
Website: 
www.vtc.edu.hk
About Hong Kong Design Institute (HKDI)
Hong Kong Design Institute (HKDI) is a member of VTC Group. HKDI was established in 2007 with the mission to be a leading provider of design education and lifelong learning, including architecture, interior and product design, communication design, digital media, and fashion and image design. With a view to providing professional designers for the creative industries, it promotes the “think and do” approach and encourages interdisciplinary synergy in its broad range of design programmes that cultivates students’ cultural sensitivities and sense of sustainability. HKDI maintains a strong network with industry and provides its students with essential practical experience. Overseas exchanges are actively arranged for students to broaden their international perspective.
Website: http://www.hkdi.edu.hk
Disclaimer: The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region provides funding support to the project only, and does not otherwise take part in the project. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in these materials/events (or by members of the project team) are those of the project organisers only and do not reflect the views of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau, the Cultural and Creative Industries Development Agency, the CreateSmart Initiative Secretariat or the CreateSmart Initiative Vetting Committee.
Media OutReach
InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay Strengthens Guest Experiences Through The Quay Insider Programme
The Story Behind The Quay Insider
Introduced in early 2025 as part of the InterContinental brand’s hallmark of “Insider Expertise”, The Quay Insider embodies InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay’s commitment to connecting travellers with the authentic and lesser-known sides of Singapore. This comes to life through partnerships with local brands around the neighbourhood, inviting guests to immerse themselves in the city’s vibrant culture and storied heritage.
Crafting Experiences For Every Traveller
The Quay Insider has been thoughtfully designed to cater to a variety of traveller interests. The Cultural Enthusiast seeks authentic immersion, connecting with the heart of a destination through its local flavours, rich heritage and timeless stories. The Creative Wanderer discovers rare and remarkable experiences, from curated dining journeys to artisanal craftsmanship, that reflect bold individuality. The Wellness Seeker pursues balance amidst the rhythm of modern life, choosing mindful experiences that uplift and rejuvenate. By aligning curated privileges with these personas, The Quay Insider ensures that each guest’s journey is both enriching and personalised.
For business travellers, The Quay Insider privileges are crafted to enhance the comfort and convenience of the hotel’s luxury suites, seamlessly balancing work with moments of relaxation. For leisure guests, the programme allows them to immerse themselves in the precinct’s rich cultural and heritage experiences that have shaped Singapore into the city it is today. By fostering experiential travel, The Quay Insider transforms each stay into a journey of discovery, with curated local encounters that add depth and distinction to every visit.
Curating Our Neighbourhood Partners
Over 25 partners were curated for their commitment to authenticity, alignment with guest interests, and exceptional quality. Spanning independent designers, art collectives, wellness studios, and award-winning restaurants, these partnerships offer guests privileges ranging from complimentary additions with purchase and curated cultural tours to bespoke wellness and dining experiences that are tailored to each individual’s interests.
The programme spotlights local businesses and tour operators to support sustainable tourism through preservation of the creative, heritage and cultural identity of Robertson Quay. By connecting guests with local experiences around the neighbourhood, it reinforces InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay’s positioning as both a luxury riverfront haven and a gateway to the neighbourhood’s heritage rhythm and cultural vibrancy.
Creating Meaningful Connections Beyond The Stay
From culinary experiences and cultural explorations to moments of rest and wellness, The Quay Insider complements the hotel stay by introducing guests to lesser-known aspects of Singapore’s dining, culture, and wellbeing scene. It helps leisure travellers discover local highlights and offers business travellers experiential travel opportunities to relax and explore nearby, all within easy reach of the hotel.
“The Quay Insider invites guests to experience more than just a stay,” shared Kieran Quinn, General Manager, InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay. “It connects them to the heart of Robertson Quay through meaningful partnerships with community partners in the neighbourhood, enriching guest experiences while helping to support the local community.”
Building The Next Chapter Of Hospitality
InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay remains committed to sustaining long-term partnerships within the community, supported by dedicated communication efforts that keep guests informed of the privileges available through The Quay Insider. Renewed annually, this ensures the programme stays attuned to evolving guest interests and the growing demand for meaningful, experiential travel.
Moving forward, the hotel is also exploring more collaborations across the precinct to further expand the scope of insider experiences. These initiatives aim to introduce both international travellers and local guests, including those booking a staycation package in Singapore, to a wider range of experiences. As such, the programme can continue to evolve in line with the needs and aspirations of today’s travellers. This allows InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay to weave local experiences seamlessly into every guest’s stay experience.
Hotel Positioning
Alongside The Quay Insider, InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay maintains its positioning as a luxury lifestyle hotel for modern travellers. Its residential-inspired design complements the experiential travel focus of the programme, offering guests the combination of contemporary comfort and immediate access to local culture.
The introduction of the programme sets the hotel apart by embedding cultural engagement seamlessly into the guest journey. Both leisure and business travellers may enjoy a hospitality experience that weaves meaningful experiences around the neighbourhood, together with the refined luxury of InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay.
Hashtag: #InterContinentalSingaporeRobertsonQuay #TheQuayInsider #CondéNastReadersChoice2025
https://robertsonquay.intercontinental.com/
http://www.facebook.com/InterContinentalRobertsonQuay
https://www.instagram.com/intercontinentalrq/
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
About InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay
InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay is a luxury hotel nestled in the heart of Singapore’s newest micro-destination. Situated on the banks of the Singapore River at one of the most exclusive addresses, InterContinental Singapore Robertson Quay is a ripe host of thoughtful amenities and personalised services.
The 225 studios and suites are reminiscent of a private residence, surrounded by vibrant dining options, art houses and heritage sites, with the CBD located just 5 minutes away. The sleek urban property reflects the neighbourhood’s industrial past with modern, contemporary finishes complemented by outdoor terraces boasting river views.
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