The U.S. dollar (USD), the buck or the greenback, as it is often informally referred to, has long occupied a rather exclusive position in global finance. Ever since the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the greenback has played a crucial role in facilitating cross-border transactions and smoothing international trade flows, in addition to serving as a primary reserve currency for central banks around the world. Being the official currency of the world’s largest economy, the United States, has certainly helped the dollar maintain its dominant position. Indeed, the sheer size of the U.S. economy, its deep and liquid financial markets, strong private property rights and the rule of law enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, and last but not least, the unrivalled power of the U.S. military, made the dollar the most trusted global currency. As a result, the greenback became what market participants call ‘a safe-haven currency’, a refuge for investors during times of macroeconomic uncertainty or market turmoil. Most recently, however, the instability in global financial markets triggered by rising trade tariffs and exacerbated by fears of a global recession seems to have upended this narrative, undermining the dollar’s established role.

Trade tensions
The U.S. dollar has been depreciating almost relentlessly since mid-January. In just three and a half months, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the greenback relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc, lost more than 10% in value (from 13 January high to 21 April low). On 11 April, it breached the critical 100.00 level, and although it has since increased slightly, it remains by far the worst-performing currency among other major currencies this year so far. This decline has raised an important question: Is the U.S. dollar losing its safe-haven status, or is it merely a temporary setback.

The catalyst for the dollar’s slide is rooted in the escalating trade tensions, particularly the aggressive tariff policies enacted by U.S. President Donald Trump. In recent weeks, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much steeper duties imposed on key trading partners like China, which, in turn, retaliated with its own 125% levies on U.S. goods. These moves have stoked fears of a global recession, as international supply chains may get disrupted with potentially devastating consequences for the world economy. Historically, such uncertainty would bolster the dollar, as investors seek the safety of U.S. assets. However, this time around, the greenback is faltering, while alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) are gaining ground.

Hedging
Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, says that the U.S. dollar’s recent weakness is driven by a diversification shift among investors into alternative safe-haven currencies, motivated by risk-hedging and fears over the growth prospects of the U.S. economy. ‘We are witnessing a major reallocation of capital. Market participants realise that in a trade war, there are no winners. In the short term, the U.S. economy will face the consequences, and they will not be pretty. Big players with large investments in the U.S. realised they needed to hedge their currency risk, so they moved into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Also, higher tariffs are fuelling recession fears, so traders have increased their bets on additional rate cuts by the Fed [Federal Reserve]. That too had a bearish effect on the greenback’.

Indeed, on April 21, USDCHF dropped below the 0.80500 mark, the level unseen in almost 14 years, while USDJPY was hovering near the critical 140.00 area, a drop below which will open the way towards new multi-year lows. Significant shifts in capital flow allocations have prompted some analysts to conclude that the U.S. dollar is facing a crisis of confidence. However, Octa analysts have a different view and believe that the current situation doesn’t reflect a broad erosion of investors’ long-term trust in the U.S. dollar. Kar Yong Ang said: ‘The issue isn’t so much a fundamental loss of faith in the U.S. dollar’s long-term prospects. What we are witnessing right now is a dramatic, yet logical response to the probable economic implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies. You have an administration, which is effectively re-structuring the global trade order, that does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the Fed and apparently believes in a weak dollar. If you’re a foreign investor in the U.S., you simply cannot afford to be unhedged these days. But also, let’s not forget that the greenback has been falling from relatively high levels, so a healthy downward correction was long overdue’. In other words, the recent slide in the U.S. dollar is not an unusual phenomenon or an anomaly; it is quite natural and probably a short-term occurrence. In fact, even after an 11% drop in 2025, the greenback is still some 38% above its historical low set in 2008. Furthermore, it is clear that once key global actors adopt more conciliatory diplomatic rhetoric and engage in active trade negotiations, the situation will normalise immediately.

Conclusion
As for the dollar’s long-term prospects, its dominant status will likely continue to be challenged, but no single currency can take its crown for now. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the U.S. dollar still accounts for nearly 88% of international transactions, and its dominance in Forex markets remains unmatched, with daily trading volumes dwarfing those of the yen or franc. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), more than half (57.8%) of the $12.4 trillion in global foreign exchange reserves were in U.S. dollars. Therefore, while the greenback may not be the automatic refuge it once was, its role as a Forex cornerstone endures for now.

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Octa

Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

In Southeast Asia, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively

Powered by advanced electronic components and AI algorithms, Xeleqt’s AIoT devices and systems can help streamline workflows, digitize repetitive tasks, minimize human errors, and empower employees with real-time analytics for optimizing workforce management.

Companies are increasingly combining the power of AI and the Internet of Things (IoT) to create smarter, more powerful systems that enhance operational efficiency, enable data-driven decision-making, and provide optimal service experiences. The AIoT market in Asia-Pacific is projected to reach a revenue of US$261 million¹ by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 36%.

Founded in 2021 and based in Cebu City, Philippines, Xeleqt is an award-winning startup specialized in providing AIoT-enabled application services tailored to their specific business needs of SMEs. The growing complexity and high implementation costs of AIoT systems present significant barriers for many SMEs in adopting these digital tools and solutions.

“We are dedicated to harnessing the power of AI and IoT technologies to revolutionize the collaboration between people and machines in the physical world. AIoT-powered devices not only provide humans with real-time intelligence and insights but also enhance workforce agility, engagement, and safety. By offering an AIoT-as-a-service model, our customers can benefit from affordable, easy-to-deploy digital solutions that reduce risk, monetize idle capacity, protect essential workers, and improve service quality,” said Norman Curato, CEO and co-founder of Xeleqt. “As an emerging tech startup, we rely on global technology leaders for guidance and best practices. Arrow has provided us with the essential engineering expertise and tools to overcome technical challenges and accelerate our AIoT design-to-prototype-to-product innovation journey.”

Arrow supplies approximately 70% of the electronic components utilized by Xeleqt, ranging from AI chips, sensors, Bluetooth/WiFi connectivity modules to interconnect, passive and electromechanical components. The Arrow technical team has contributed engineering expertise and design tools to help Xeleqt address technical challenges, accelerating the transition from design to prototype to final product. Some of Xeleqt’s AIoT products are expected to launch recently include:

• WorkTraQ – a wearable device, equipped with Bluetooth location sensing, NFC module, advanced movement, and audio recognition AI to gather comprehensive data on worker activities and environmental conditions
• TimeTraQ is an always-on, fully connected, self-diagnosing time-and-attendance device that calculates the cost of shift hours in real-time and generates payroll. Embedded with facial or vein recognition camera, tampering and jamming detection features, it allows seamless identification and anomaly detection, enhancing security while minimizing administrative overhead.
• OmniTraQ is a telematics device equipped with a low-power, long-range connectivity module. It enables reliable data transmission across vast remote or rugged environments without the need for extensive network infrastructure.

Dr. Raphael Salmi, president of Arrow Electronics’ South Asia, Korea, and Japan components business, said, “The adoption and integration of AIoT technologies propel industries towards a more interconnected and intelligent future. The contemporary AIoT ecosystem requires extensive technology competencies, from product ideation and design to engineering, supply chain management, and manufacturing. With our extensive network of technology suppliers and world-class technological capabilities, we are well positioned to provide optimal support to Xeleqt and many other tech startups as they endeavor to simplify and scale up AIoT offerings.”

In addition, Arrow’s Silicon Expert intelligence tool and service help mitigate risks throughout a product’s entire lifecycle, from development and production to sustainment. Empowered by Arrow’s comprehensive technology portfolio and Silicon Expert’s tool, Xeleqt gains real-time operational insights, optimizes parts availability, reduces costs associated with the bill of materials, and minimizes risks.

^1. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/horizon/outlook/artificial-intelligence-of-things-aiot-market/asia-pacific

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About Xeleqt

Xeleqt, founded in 2021 and based in Cebu City, Philippines, specializes in AIoT products and solutions for human resources and asset management. Its main offerings include workforce engagement tools, payroll automation, and wage automation services, primarily serving field service industries and companies.

About Arrow Electronics

Arrow Electronics (NYSE:ARW) sources and engineers technology solutions for thousands of leading manufacturers and service providers. With global 2024 sales of $28 billion, Arrow’s portfolio enables technology across major industries and markets. Learn more at arrow.com.

“This partnership is a critical step toward redefining how impact capital is mobilized and applied,” said Goh Seh Harn, Founder and CEO of Trigger Asset Management. “We are building an ecosystem where capital not only scales businesses but also fuels systemic change for people and the planet.”

By combining UNDP’s global development reach with Trigger’s leadership in sustainable investment, the partnership is poised to support a new generation of investment-ready startups and businesses capable of delivering economically sustainable, and measurable social and environmental impact at scale. More information at www.triggervc.com

Hashtag: #TRIGGER #UNDP #impactinvesting #sustainableinvestment #sustainabledevelopment

https://www.triggervc.com/
www.triggervc.com.

UNDP

UNDP is the leading United Nations organization working to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. With a presence in 170 countries and territories, UNDP helps nations build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow @UNDP.

UNDP AltFinLab

AltFinLab is UNDP’s flagship innovation lab for alternative finance, pioneering solutions in blockchain, crowdfunding, and impact investing. It works with governments, startups, and private sector partners to mobilize resources for sustainable development.