Economy
Fitch Upgrades Ghana’s Outlook to Stable
Ghana national flag
By Dipo Olowookere
The Outlook on Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) has been upgraded by Fitch Ratings to Stable from Negative. Also, the West African nation’s IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B’.
A statement issued by the rating agency on Friday stated further that it has equally affirmed the issue ratings on Ghana’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds at ‘B’, as well as the ‘BB-‘ rating on Ghana’s $1 billion partially guaranteed note.
Ghana’s Country Ceiling and Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs have been affirmed at ‘B’, Fitch said.
The agency said Ghana continues to make progress in stabilising its economy after its recent crisis period, with an expected revival in GDP growth, declining inflation, a more stable currency and increasing foreign exchange reserves.
Furthermore Fitch judges that the new government will make progress in reducing the budget deficit after the election-related slippage in 2016, albeit with continued downside risks.
Fitch expects growth to improve to 6 percent in 2017 from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2016, when it was hampered by lower than expected oil production and power cuts.
CPI inflation fell to 12.9 percent year on year in March, from a peak of 19 percent in March 2016. The cedi has recovered to 4.2/$, after depreciating to 4.7/$ in early March. The improvement in the macroeconomic environment has allowed the Bank of Ghana to cut its policy interest rate to 23.5 percent from a peak of 26 percent in 2016.
Further, rising oil production and the benefits from macroeconomic stability will support Ghana’s medium-term growth potential above 6 percent, a key rating strength.
Ghana experienced a blow-out in the 2016 budget deficit, which widened to an estimated 8.9 percent of GDP (on a cash basis) in the run-up to December general elections, compared with a government and IMF target of 5.3 percent, and an outturn of 6.3 percent in 2015.
The cash deficit includes up to USD1.3 billion (3% of GDP) in off-budget and unapproved spending. On a commitment basis, accounting for an additional $650 million in unpaid commitments, Ghana’s deficit widened to as much as 10.5 percent of GDP.
Fitch notes that some of the unapproved expenditure is presently being audited and a significant chunk may be written down, which would lower the deficit.
The election resulted in a win for the New Patriotic Party, Ghana’s centre-right party, which had been in opposition since 2009. In March, the new government announced its 2017 budget, which calls for fiscal consolidation, and measures to strengthen public financial management.
Fitch forecasts the 2017 budget deficit to narrow to 7.5 percent of GDP on a cash basis, and further to 5.5 percent in 2018.
The government’s 2017 deficit forecast of 6.5 percent of GDP is based on an expected increase in tax revenues and a cut to capital expenditures.
Fitch believes that the expected increase in tax revenues will be difficult to realise, as the budget contains significant tax cuts aimed at boosting the business climate. Fitch notes that Ghana has historically underperformed its budgeted revenue projections.
On the expenditure side, interest costs will continue to exert upward pressure. Ghana’s interest costs are 32 percent of its general government revenues, a level well above the ‘B’ median of 9 percent.
Also, a lack of transparency and accountability within the line ministries has persistently led to substantial off-budget spending and the accumulation of arrears.
Successful implementation of the measures outlined in the Public Financial Management Act, 2016 would help control expenditure and keep spending focused on the policy priorities outlined in the budget.
Gross general government debt has stabilised, experiencing a slight increase to 73 percent of GDP at end-2016, from 72 percent at end-2015.
Fitch expects the debt/GDP ratio to decline to around 71 percent by end-2017 due to strengthening of the exchange rate (62% of debt is foreign currency denominated), lower budget deficit and robust nominal GDP growth.
However, Ghana’s debt level will remain higher than peers both as a percentage of GDP (the ‘B’ median is 56% of GDP) and as a percentage of revenue. Ghana’s general government debt/revenue is 366%, compared with the ‘B’ median of 225 percent.
Fitch said Ghana’s $915 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the IMF is a key support for the sovereign ratings.
The incoming government has signalled its commitment to complete the programme, but has engaged with the Fund in renegotiating some of the programme’s indicative targets and structural benchmarks.
IMF staff completed the fourth review of the ECF in March and it will go to the IMF Board for approval before the end of June, allowing for the dispersal of an additional $116 million. Fitch believes that the government remains committed to successfully completing the current programme, which is due to run until 2018.
Ghana’s ‘B’ IDRs reflect the following key rating drivers:
Ghana’s external finances are a rating weakness. Fitch forecasts the current account deficit to narrow slightly to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2017, from 6.7 percent in 2016, but remain above the ‘B’ median of 5.7 percent of GDP.
Increases in oil and gas exports will help Ghana’s export performance, but rising imports will keep the current account deficit from narrowing significantly. International reserves increased by $460 million in 2016, ending at $4.9 billion, about 2.8 months of current external payments.
Fitch says it expects that external debt payments due in 2017 will limit reserves accumulation and forecasts reserves to reach $5.2 billion at end-2017.
The ratings are supported by World Bank governance indictors and business environment indicators that are stronger than the ‘B’ median, underlined by the peaceful transition of power in December. However, the ratings are constrained by low GDP per capita, which at $1,509 is less than half the ‘B’ median, low human development indicators and dependence on commodity exports.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited reversed the loss recorded on Thursday, closing higher by 0.14 per cent at the close of business on Friday.
The bourse finished in green territory as a result of renewed bargain-hunting by investors, who showed appetite for energy and commodity stocks, leaving their respective sector up by 1.74 per cent and 0.52 per cent.
However, the others experienced profit-taking, with the consumer goods space losing 0.41 per cent, the banking index shedding 0.16 per cent, and the insurance counter declining by 0.13 per cent. When the market closed for the day, the industrial goods sector remained unchanged.
Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 145.93 points to 107,821.39 points from 107,675.46 points and the market capitalisation gained N91 billion to settle at N67.193 trillion versus Thursday’s value of N67.102 trillion.
Despite the growth recorded by Customs Street yesterday, investor sentiment was weak, as there were 26 price gainers and 34 price losers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to close at N2.09, Oando grew by 9.94 per cent to N58.05, Caverton improved by 9.67 per cent to N2.95, John Holt expanded by 9.09 per cent to N7.98, and PZ Cussons appreciated by 9.09 per cent to N35.40.
On the flip side, Red Star Express shed 9.96 per cent to finish at N6.60, Learn Africa dropped 9.84 per cent to close at N3.30, Multiverse crashed by 9.72 per cent to N9.75, Cadbury Nigeria declined by 9.62 per cent to N26.30, and Linkage Assurance slumped by 5.80 per cent to N1.30.
It was quite a busy day on Friday at the bourse as Zenith Bank ended with a turnover of 122.2 million shares sold for N5.9 billion, FCMB transacted 50.2 million stocks worth N525.9 million, Access Holding exchanged 28.6 million equities for N734.8 million, Fidelity Bank traded 19.9 million stocks valued at N353.1 million, and Jaiz Bank transacted 17.6 million shares worth N59.8 million.
At the close of trading activities, investors bought and sold 458.3 million equities for N14.1 billion in 12,213 deals versus the 423.4 million equities worth N9.6 billion traded in 11,112 deals a day earlier, implying a spike in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 8.24 per cent, 46.88 per cent, and 9.91 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
For another trading day, the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended on a positive note with a 0.31 per cent growth on Friday, February 28.
This raised the market capitalisation of the bourse by N25.85 billion to close the session at N1.866 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.861 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 10.33 points to close at 3,295.32 points, in contrast to the previous trading day’s 3,284.99 points.
The volume of securities traded yesterday slumped by 50.2 per cent to 1.03 million units from the 2.07 million units posted a day earlier and the value of securities traded went south by 14.7 per cent to N39.9 million from the N46.8 million quoted at the preceding session, while the number number of deals increased by 166.7 per cent to 40 deals from 15 deals.
During the session, Okitipupa Plc continued its bullish run by adding N14.52 to its value to settle at N229.52 per share compared with Thursday’s value of N215.00 per share, NASD Plc rose by N1.70 to N18.76 per unit from N17.06 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc gained N1.09 to finish at N22.59 per share versus the previous price of N21.50 per share, and Golden Capital Plc increased by 50 Kobo to trade at N10.50 per unit compared with the N10.00 per unit it was sold a day earlier.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by N1.84 to settle at N38.86 per share compared with the preceding session’s N39.86 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc lost 4 Kobo to end at N3.20 per unit, in contrast to Thursday’s value of N3.24 per unit.
Impresit Bakolori Plc ended the day as the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 533.8 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Afriland Properties Plc with 16.4 million units valued at 335.2 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 8.3 million units valued at N329.2 million.
Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 69.7 million units worth N23.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 10.9 million units sold for N51.9 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 8.3 million units valued at N329.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A loss of 0.12 per cent or N1.73 was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, February 28.
In the official forex market, the domestic currency was exchanged with the greenback at N1,500.73/$1 during the session compared with the previous day’s rate of N1,499.00/$1.
However, the local currency appreciated against the British Pound Sterling yesterday by N17.78 to settle at N1,880.69/£1 versus Thursday’s closing value of N1,898.47/£1 and it gained N19.93 on the Euro to sell for N1,552.94/€1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,572.87/€1.
A look at the parallel market showed that the Nigerian Naira weakened against the Dollar yesterday by N5 to trade at N1,505/$1 compared with the N1,500/$1 it was transacted a day earlier.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was up on Friday, with analysts pointing out that historical data highlights the recent drawdown as a prime purchasing opportunity for many to stack up while others pointed out that the drawdown may not be over as developments in the political environment may impact sentiments.
During the trading day, Solana (SOL) chalked up 11.0 per cent to trade at $142.99, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 10.2 per cent to sell at $0.2044, and Litecoin (LTC) recorded an 8.9 per cent rise to trade at $126.43.
In addition, Ripple (XRP) gained 8.6 per cent to quote at $2.17, Cardano (ADA) added 7.9 per cent to finish at $0.6407, Bitcoin (BTC) improved its value by 7.3 per cent to $84,973.70, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 5.8 per cent to $2,234.20, and Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 4.8 per cent to settle at $595.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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