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Economy

Stock Market Analysis: Is ‘Santa Claus’ Rally Imminent?

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Stock Market Newspaper

By United Capital Research

If history is any indication of the future, we see reasons to believe that the Nigerian equity market could get a Christmas rally in December.

First, history shows us that the All-Share Index (ASI) has averaged a return of 2.8 percent in the final month of the year since 1998 – second only to May which has averaged 5.3 percent.

Also, in the past 21 years, the market has only seen four negative monthly returns in December (specifically in 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009) – the lowest of any other month.

Thus, the probability that there would be a December rally is a whopping 81.0 percent.

We think the market loves December because it is a month where players begin to trade their optimism about the new year.

It is also a month where portfolio managers – looking to re-balance their portfolios – take position ahead of year-end reporting’s.

Added to this, the market clearly looks attractively valued in light of the sell-off we have seen this year. This clearly offers an interesting entry-point ahead of the upcoming presidential elections and even to a multi-year recovery story.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Stock Market Gains N248bn to Close at N63.166trn

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Nigerian market stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited appreciated by 0.39 per cent on Friday as the demand for local equities continued to increase.

During the final trading session of the week, the insurance maintained its upward trend with a growth of 7.81 per cent as the banking index appreciated by 1.08 per cent, the consumer goods sector rose by 0.52 per cent, and the industrial goods counter expanded by 0.33 per cent, while the energy space went down by 0.49 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) jumped by 406.19 points to 103,586.33 points from 103,180.14 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N248 billion to N63.166 trillion from N62.918 trillion.

The bourse recorded 67 appreciating shares and 11 depreciating shares, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

Chams, Omatek, NCR Nigeria, Learn Africa, and Regency Alliance topped the gainers’ table after they gained 10.00 per cent each to finish at N2.31, 88 Kobo, N6.05, N4.95, and 88 Kobo, respectively.

On the flip side, TotalEnergies lost 9.74 per cent to trade at N630.00, CWG depreciated by 6.04 per cent to close at N7.00, Thomas Wyatt went down by 5.26 per cent to N1.80, ABC Transport crumbled by 4.07 per cent to N1.18, and UAC Nigeria shed 3.19 per cent to N31.90.

Yesterday, investors traded 709.3 million stocks valued at N8.2 billion in 13,593 deals compared with the 829.8 million stocks worth N5.7 billion transacted in 11,752 deals on Thursday, representing a slowdown in the trading volume by 14.52 per cent and a rise in the trading value and number of deals by 43.86 per cent and 15.67 per cent, respectively.

At the close of business, Chams topped the activity log with 58.1 million equities sold for N133.8 million, Veritas Kapital traded 55.1 million shares valued at N89.2 million, Abbey Mortgage Bank exchanged 50.1 million stocks for N165.5 million, AIICO Insurance transacted 39.7 million equities worth N68.3 million, and NPF Microfinance Bank sold 34.3 million stocks valued at N64.0 million.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Extends Good Start to New Trading Year

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Nigeria's Unlisted Securities Market Sheds 0.78%, NASD Shares up 8.31%

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its positive start to the year with a 0.08 per cent rise on Friday, January 3.

The market saw a gain of N840 million, with the value of the alternative bourse growing to N1.046 trillion from the N1.045 trillion it closed a day earlier as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) made an addition of 2.43 points to wrap the session at 3,052.34 points compared with 3,049.91 points recorded at the previous session.

The appreciation posted yesterday at the NASD OTC exchange was caused by two price gainers led by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc which jumped by 2 Kobo to end at 20 Kobo per share compared with the preceding session’s 18 Kobo per share and UBN Property Plc, which improved its value by 16 Kobo to close at N1.98 per unit, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price f N1.82 per unit.

The market posted a price loser, which was  FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc as it dropped 18 Kobo to finish at N39.76 share versus the previous day’s N39.94 per share.

There was an 856.6 per cent surge in the volume of securities traded in the session to 11.3 million units from the 1.2 million units traded in the preceding session.

Equally, there was a jump in the value of shares traded yesterday by 1,078.4 per cent to N56.8 million from the N4.8 million made previously, and the number of deals increased by 22.7 per cent to 27 deals from 22 deals.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.4 units worth N55.8 million, IGI Plc came next with 10.6 million units valued at N2.1 million, and 11 Plc was in third with 6,45 units sold for N1.4 million.

IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc came next with 1.4 million units valued at N55.8 million, and UBN Property Plc followed with 275,740 units worth N545,965.

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Economy

Naira Gains 0.27% on Dollar at NAFEM, Stable at Black Market

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Naira redesigning1

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 3 by N4.18 or 0.27 per cent to N1,538.23/$1 compared with Thursday’s closing rate of N1,538.23/$1.

Also, the domestic currency improved its value against the British Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N9.35 to wrap the session at N1,902.55/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,911.90/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency gained N9.93 to settle at N1,579.52/€1 versus the previous session’s N1,589.45/€1.

Although towards the end of last year, the Naira recorded some form of stability, triggers like devaluation and earlier pressure saw it conclude 2024 with significant depreciation across foreign exchange (FX) markets, recording a 40.9 per cent loss against the Dollar.

At the black market on Friday, the Naira maintained stability against the US Dollar at N1,655/$1, according to data gathered by Business Post.

In the cryptocurrency market, prices were largely positive for the benchmarked tokens ahead of the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has promised support to the crypto industry in his second time in the White House.

Rising activity and a bump in revenue, fees, new wallets and on-chain volumes have also indicated further support for digital assets.

The highest gainer was Dogecoin (DOGE) which jumped by 15.2 per cent to sell at $0.388, followed by Litecoin (LTC), which went up by 6.9 per cent to $111.89, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 4.7 per cent to trade at $3,595.65, and Cardano (ADA) improved by 4.3 per cent to close at $1.08.

Further, Solana (SOL) recorded a 4.0 per cent appreciation to sell at $216.48, Binance Coin (BNB) grew by 2.4 per cent to finish at $718.07, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded by 2.0 per cent to close at $98,211.48, and Ripple (XRP) recorded a 1.4 per cent growth to settle at $2.45, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.

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