Economy
Investors Should Plan for Market Volatility in 2019—Report
**Says Oil Prices Could Rise to $85 Per Barrel
By Dipo Olowookere
As investors prepare for 2019, UBS Global Wealth Management said they (investors) will need to weather more volatility in order to capture opportunities in the coming year.
According to the Year Ahead report from UBS, the world’s leading wealth manager, global economic growth will decelerate next year to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent in 2018, and company earnings will grow at a slower rate.
However, a 2019 recession still looks unlikely, and the price of many financial assets has already moved to reflect uncertain prospects, it said in its Global Investment Outlook For 2019.
UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) enters the year with an overweight position in global equities.
However, it stressed that as the market cycle matures, investors should diversify and hedge their portfolios to guard against volatility as well as political and other risks, adding that they should also take advantage of growth in fields like sustainable and impact investing, and pockets of value where financial asset prices are excessively low.
Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, Mr Mark Haefele, noted that, “Investors should retain positions in global equities but plan for market volatility. A slight slowdown in economic and earnings growth doesn’t mean no growth, and the recent sell-off has left a number of assets more attractively valued, but investors must also take into account the tense geopolitical environment as well as monetary policy tightening.”
In its investment process, CIO seeks to test its ideas against professional investors’ views. Surveys of professional investors and wealthy US-based individuals reveal divergent outlooks for the year ahead.
It said close to half of professional investors see the US lagging global markets next year, while two-thirds of individual investors surveyed expect US stocks to match or beat global equities.
In addition, nearly half of the professionals surveyed anticipate the US dollar declining versus the euro, compared with less than one-sixth of individual investors.
It noted that the most popular asset class for professional investors entering the new year is emerging market equities. For individual investors the top pick is US stocks. Professional investors are nevertheless more optimistic than individual investors on how much upside remains in the US equity bull market, adding that few professionals regard US political risk as a bigger threat than US-China trade tensions and higher interest rates. Individual investors are more concerned about US political risks than professionals are.
It further said when asked when the next recession will start, the most common answer among professional investors is 2021. Half of the individual investors surveyed expect the next recession to start within two years.
Investment recommendations
CIO recommends that investors should retain an overweight position in global equities as we enter 2019. Nevertheless, they should also hedge against volatility by holding overweight positions in medium-duration US government bonds and the Japanese yen, as well as focusing on quality companies and avoiding excessive credit risk. They should also look to neglected areas of the market, including value stocks in the US and emerging markets, energy equities globally, and shares of financial companies in the US and China. Sustainable and impact investing continues to provide longer-term growth opportunities, as do emerging market and Japanese stocks, and US dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds.
Americas
The US Federal Reserve should approach the end of its tightening cycle in 2019, while the support from US fiscal stimulus should wane. In this context, the US’s twin fiscal and current account deficits will likely weigh on the US dollar. Within Latin America, investors should keep an eye on Brazil, where the incoming administration has proposed a range of reforms that could improve the country’s fiscal sustainability.
Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) & Switzerland
The European Central Bank should start to normalize interest rates in 2019, which would support the euro against the greenback.
A clear recovery by the euro is needed before the Swiss National Bank will hike rates, although the Swiss franc has limited scope to depreciate against the euro. Within emerging EMEA, CIO sees the recent sell off in crude oil prices as overdone, and expects prices to rise towards $85 per barrel over the next six to 12 months, supporting prospects for the Middle East. However, investors should continue to diversify globally to avoid idiosyncratic political risks in emerging EMEA as well as the Eurozone and the UK, which is scheduled to leave the European Union next year.
Asia Pacific
The Chinese Yuan should continue to decline, easing 5 percent in trade-weighted terms against a backdrop of ongoing US-China trade tensions, slowing Chinese economic growth, and a diminishing current account surplus. By contrast, in the wake of Japan’s Abenomics program, the Yen is more than 30 percent undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium on a purchasing power parity basis. Japanese bond yields could also rise as the Bank of Japan embarks on a slow normalization of monetary policy.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira again depreciated against the United States Dollar by N7.16 or 0.53 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 19, to N1,370.46/$1 from the previous day’s N1,363.30/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency lost N9.07 against the Pound Sterling at the official market yesterday to trade at N1,814.76/£1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,805.69/£1, and crashed against the Euro by N6.43 to settle at N1,571.50/€1 versus N1,565.07/€1.
Also, the Naira weakened against the greenback in the black market during the session by N5 to sell for N1,390/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,385/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N3 to close at N1,376/$1 versus N1,373/$1.
The official market’s FX liquidity has been facing pressure over the last three trading sessions, contributing to a decline in the official exchange rate due to rising demand for foreign payments.
FX reserves rose to $51.03 billion, the highest level since January 20, 2009, according to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The figure also represents the highest since the beginning of the year and under the administration of the current Governor of CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso.
The latest figure underscores the steady strengthening of Nigeria’s external buffers, which continues to reinforce investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and support exchange rate stability.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was mixed, with Bitcoin (BTC) up by 0.8 per cent to $63,225.80 after trading activity was relatively subdued due to a US federal holiday, as the absence of stock and bond market activity led to quieter conditions across crypto markets, even though digital assets continue to trade around the clock.
Further, TRON (TRX) also gained 0.8 per cent to sell at $0.3230, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 0.5 per cent to $579.84, and Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.1 per cent to $1,704.23.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.9 per cent to $1.13, Cardano (ADA) shed 0.8 per cent to trade at $0.1611, Solana (SOL) fell by 0.1 per cent to $69.23, and Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 0.1 per cent to $0.0831, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent crude gained 66 cents or 0.53 per cent to sell for $80.38 per barrel on Friday after Israel and Hezbollah agreed on a ceasefire in Lebanon, though Iran set conditions for using the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 94 cents or 1.23 per cent to $77.54 per barrel, amid light trading volumes due to the US Juneteenth holiday.
In spite of Friday’s gains, Brent was down about 8 per cent week-over-week, reflecting a significant easing of supply concerns in the wake of the US-Iran deal to end the war.
Gulf producers were preparing to raise exports after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, which began on Friday.
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt fighting in southern Lebanon after days of escalating clashes threatened to derail the fragile US-Iran peace process, reducing the risk that the first major test of the agreement would turn into its first major failure.
At least four tankers carrying crude, oil products and liquefied petroleum gas (LNG) entered the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, heading for Iraqi Gulf ports. However, despite the uptick in activity, Iran signalled tighter control over shipping.
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said “no vessel is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without a valid passage permit issued by the PGSA”.
Concerns also remain as a planned meeting between Iranian and American officials in Switzerland on Friday was postponed, with arrangements underway for talks in the coming days.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the meeting was no longer urgent because a memorandum of understanding on ending the war had already been signed digitally between the two sides.
Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. The agreement also includes the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil, which would add more supply.
However, recovery in flows of supply that transits Hormuz and production after the US-Iran deal could take several months.
On the demand front, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook that world demand will rise to 113.3 million barrels per day in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The gross foreign reserves of Nigeria reached a 17-year high of $51.04 billion, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows.
Business Post gathered from the apex bank’s website that this new feat was achieved on Thursday, June 18, 2026.
A day earlier, which was Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the amount in the country’s external reserves stood at $50.96 billion, indicating accretion of 0.16 per cent.
This latest development is expected to strengthen the value of the Nigerian Naira in the foreign exchange (FX) market.
It was observed that since the beginning of this month, the amount in the forex reserves has been building up gradually after an initial scare.
It is believed that inflows from crude oil sales have been boosting the reserves, though prices are expected to trend downward as a result of the ceasefire deals between the United States and Iran on Friday.
The price of crude oil has cooled to around $80 per barrel. It should further moderate to its level before February 28, 2026, when the bombardment of Iran started, which led to the death of the country’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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