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Economy

Investors Should Plan for Market Volatility in 2019—Report

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**Says Oil Prices Could Rise to $85 Per Barrel

By Dipo Olowookere

As investors prepare for 2019, UBS Global Wealth Management said they (investors) will need to weather more volatility in order to capture opportunities in the coming year.

According to the Year Ahead report from UBS, the world’s leading wealth manager, global economic growth will decelerate next year to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent in 2018, and company earnings will grow at a slower rate.

However, a 2019 recession still looks unlikely, and the price of many financial assets has already moved to reflect uncertain prospects, it said in its Global Investment Outlook For 2019.

UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) enters the year with an overweight position in global equities.

However, it stressed that as the market cycle matures, investors should diversify and hedge their portfolios to guard against volatility as well as political and other risks, adding that they should also take advantage of growth in fields like sustainable and impact investing, and pockets of value where financial asset prices are excessively low.

Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, Mr Mark Haefele, noted that, “Investors should retain positions in global equities but plan for market volatility. A slight slowdown in economic and earnings growth doesn’t mean no growth, and the recent sell-off has left a number of assets more attractively valued, but investors must also take into account the tense geopolitical environment as well as monetary policy tightening.”

In its investment process, CIO seeks to test its ideas against professional investors’ views. Surveys of professional investors and wealthy US-based individuals reveal divergent outlooks for the year ahead.

It said close to half of professional investors see the US lagging global markets next year, while two-thirds of individual investors surveyed expect US stocks to match or beat global equities.

In addition, nearly half of the professionals surveyed anticipate the US dollar declining versus the euro, compared with less than one-sixth of individual investors.

It noted that the most popular asset class for professional investors entering the new year is emerging market equities. For individual investors the top pick is US stocks. Professional investors are nevertheless more optimistic than individual investors on how much upside remains in the US equity bull market, adding that few professionals regard US political risk as a bigger threat than US-China trade tensions and higher interest rates. Individual investors are more concerned about US political risks than professionals are.

It further said when asked when the next recession will start, the most common answer among professional investors is 2021. Half of the individual investors surveyed expect the next recession to start within two years.

Investment recommendations

CIO recommends that investors should retain an overweight position in global equities as we enter 2019. Nevertheless, they should also hedge against volatility by holding overweight positions in medium-duration US government bonds and the Japanese yen, as well as focusing on quality companies and avoiding excessive credit risk. They should also look to neglected areas of the market, including value stocks in the US and emerging markets, energy equities globally, and shares of financial companies in the US and China. Sustainable and impact investing continues to provide longer-term growth opportunities, as do emerging market and Japanese stocks, and US dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds.

Americas

The US Federal Reserve should approach the end of its tightening cycle in 2019, while the support from US fiscal stimulus should wane. In this context, the US’s twin fiscal and current account deficits will likely weigh on the US dollar. Within Latin America, investors should keep an eye on Brazil, where the incoming administration has proposed a range of reforms that could improve the country’s fiscal sustainability.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) & Switzerland

The European Central Bank should start to normalize interest rates in 2019, which would support the euro against the greenback.

A clear recovery by the euro is needed before the Swiss National Bank will hike rates, although the Swiss franc has limited scope to depreciate against the euro. Within emerging EMEA, CIO sees the recent sell off in crude oil prices as overdone, and expects prices to rise towards $85 per barrel over the next six to 12 months, supporting prospects for the Middle East. However, investors should continue to diversify globally to avoid idiosyncratic political risks in emerging EMEA as well as the Eurozone and the UK, which is scheduled to leave the European Union next year.

Asia Pacific

The Chinese Yuan should continue to decline, easing 5 percent in trade-weighted terms against a backdrop of ongoing US-China trade tensions, slowing Chinese economic growth, and a diminishing current account surplus. By contrast, in the wake of Japan’s Abenomics program, the Yen is more than 30 percent undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium on a purchasing power parity basis. Japanese bond yields could also rise as the Bank of Japan embarks on a slow normalization of monetary policy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Champion Breweries Posts N14.36bn Revenue in Q1 2026 After Group Structure Transition

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Champion Breweries

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Champion Breweries Plc has released its first consolidated financial results as an expanded organisation following its recent strategic expansion.

The company transitioned to a group structure after the acquisition of an 80 per cent equity interest in enJOYbev BV, whose performance is now consolidated into the group accounts for the first time.

In the results for the first quarter of 2026 released to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, Champion Breweries posted a revenue of N14.36 billion, representing a strong increase compared to the prior year, driven by the consolidation of its newly acquired subsidiary.

Operating performance remained resilient, with operating profit rising to approximately N3.02 billion at the group level, reflecting continued discipline in cost management and operational efficiency.

Despite a softer consumer environment and lower volumes in the core domestic market, the company maintained a solid gross profit margin of 48 per cent, supported by improved cost efficiencies and disciplined commercial execution, underscoring the strength of its underlying business fundamentals.

This strategic expansion has already begun to contribute positively to earnings, with the subsidiary delivering operating profitability within the reporting period. While the company recorded a net loss at the standalone level, primarily driven by financing costs associated with its recent strategic investments, group-level profitability remained positive, with profit after tax of approximately N881 million, reflecting the early benefits of diversification and the strengthening of the brewer’s earnings base through its expanded portfolio.

Importantly, the firm continues to generate finance income from invested funds, reflecting prudent treasury management and supporting overall liquidity. This provides additional stability as the group advances its strategic initiatives.

Looking ahead, Champion Breweries says it remains confident in its outlook, noting that with the group structure now in place, improved earnings contributions from its expanded operations, and a clear focus on market execution, it expects a progressively stronger performance trajectory in the coming quarters.

Management reiterated its commitment to delivering sustainable value to shareholders, strengthening market positioning, and navigating prevailing economic conditions with discipline and resilience.

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Economy

CBN at 27.5% is Forcing a Major Reset in Forex Trading Strategies Across Nigeria

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HFM forex trading app

Nigeria’s trading environment has changed sharply since the Central Bank of Nigeria pushed rates to 27.5%, and the impact is being felt across the currency market. A rate that high does more than tighten financial conditions. It changes how traders read momentum, how they manage risk, and how they think about the naira against the dollar. Reuters reported that the CBN raised the policy rate to 27.50% in November 2024 after a string of hikes, and later kept it there as inflation and exchange rate pressures remained central concerns.

For anyone active in Nigeria’s currency space, forex trading now requires a very different mindset. What worked in a looser money environment does not always work when rates stay this high. Liquidity behaves differently, sentiment shifts faster, and market participants become much more sensitive to inflation data, policy guidance, and reserve trends. Reuters also reported that the CBN has tied its tight stance to the need to control inflation and stabilize the market, while reforms have improved reserves and confidence in the foreign exchange system.

Why a 27.5% rate changes the market mood

A rate this high affects more than borrowing costs. It resets expectations. Traders start looking at the naira through a different lens because such an aggressive stance tells the market that policymakers are serious about defending stability, even if growth conditions become tougher. In Lagos and Abuja, where many traders track both official policy signals and real market pricing, that shift has become impossible to ignore.

Higher rates reshape risk appetite

When rates rise to this level, speculative behavior often becomes more cautious. Some traders reduce position sizes. Others stop chasing moves and wait for stronger confirmation before entering. Why does that happen? Because a tight policy environment tends to punish weak conviction and reward discipline.

There is also a psychological effect. A market with a 27.5% policy rate feels heavier. It is like driving on a road where every turn demands more care than before. That change in mood forces traders to become more selective, especially in a country like Nigeria where inflation and currency sentiment still move together closely. Reuters said inflation eased after a statistical rebase, but the central bank still held rates high because broader pressure had not disappeared.

The naira story is no longer just about panic

Nigeria’s currency narrative has also become more layered. Earlier fears were largely about shortages and disorder, but now traders are also watching reforms, reserves, and policy credibility. Reuters reported that net foreign exchange reserves rose strongly in 2025 and that the CBN said clearer rules and reforms had reduced distortions and volatility.

That matters because strategy changes when the market starts trusting policy a little more. Traders can no longer rely only on the old playbook of assuming one direction and staying there.

How trading strategies are being reset

The biggest reset is in time horizon. In a market shaped by tight policy, many traders become less comfortable with broad, lazy positioning. They look for cleaner setups and faster reactions instead. A currency market under heavy policy influence often rewards timing more than stubborn conviction.

Shorter setups are becoming more practical

Many Nigeria focused traders now pay closer attention to event driven opportunities. Central bank comments, inflation releases, reserve updates, and reform announcements matter more than they used to. Reuters reported in March 2026 that the CBN eased some foreign exchange rules for oil companies to improve market liquidity and confidence, another sign that policy decisions are still actively shaping the currency landscape.

That makes short and medium term strategy more relevant. You might see a naira move that looks technical on the surface, but underneath it is often responding to policy changes, liquidity shifts, or fresh confidence in reserves. In Nigeria, the chart and the macro story now feel more connected than before.

Risk management matters more than prediction

This is where serious traders separate themselves from hopeful ones. A high rate environment does not just reward the right view. It rewards survival. Traders in Port Harcourt or Lagos who stay too attached to a single bias can get caught when policy or liquidity changes suddenly alter the mood.

I have seen markets like this before. They look calm until they do not. Then the move comes fast. That is why many traders are adjusting stop placement, reducing leverage, and focusing more on capital protection than on chasing every opportunity.

The reset, in other words, is not only strategic. It is behavioral.

Why Nigeria’s market may keep evolving

The CBN’s policy stance has already pushed traders to adapt, but the story is still developing. Reuters reported in April 2025 that the central bank sold nearly $200 million to support the naira after tariff related market shocks, showing that officials remain willing to act when volatility becomes disruptive. Reuters also reported this month that the naira had been relatively stable, supported by dollar liquidity from bond investments and exporter repatriations.

Stability can create a different kind of opportunity

A more orderly market does not mean fewer opportunities. It means different ones. Instead of trading pure panic, participants may increasingly trade around policy credibility, flow trends, and relative stability. For Nigeria, that could mark an important shift.

That is why the 27.5% rate matters so much. It has forced traders to stop relying on old assumptions and start working with a market that is slowly becoming more policy driven, more selective, and in some ways more professional.

Conclusion

The CBN’s 27.5% policy rate is forcing a major reset because it changes how traders approach risk, timing, and market structure in Nigeria. High rates, stronger reserves, and ongoing reforms have made the naira story more complex than it was before, and that means strategy has to evolve as well.

For traders in Nigeria, the message is clear. This is no longer a market where old habits are enough. Tight policy has raised the standard, and the traders who adjust their methods are more likely to stay effective as the next phase of the currency story unfolds.

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Economy

NASD Exchange Falls 0.22% After Investors Lose N4.8bn

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange weakened by 0.22 per cent on Tuesday, April 28, with the market capitalisation down by N4.8 billion to N2.420 trillion from N2.425 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 9.01 points to 4,044.96 points from 4,053.97 points.

During the session, the price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N1.82 to N767.05 per share from N78.87 per share, while FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by N1.90 to N100.00 per unit from N98.10 per unit.

According to data, the value of trades increased by 265.7 per cent to N27.1 million from N7.4 million units, and the volume of transactions surged by 305.2 per cent to 1.3 million units from 319,831 units, while the number of deals decreased by 6.9 per cent to 27 deals from 29 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.8 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.

GNI Plc also finished as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.

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