Economy
Global Food Prices Decline for Another Month
By Adedapo Adesanya
Last month, prices of food around the world fell for the second consecutive month as the Food Price Index averaged 157.4 points in May 2022, down 0.9 points (0.6 per cent) from April.
The index, recorded by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), despite the decline, was still 29.2 points (22.8 per cent) above its value in the corresponding month last year.
The drop in May was led by declines in the vegetable oil and dairy price indices, while the sugar price index also fell to a lesser extent.
Meanwhile, cereal and meat price indices increased.
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 173.4 points in May, up 3.7 points (2.2 per cent) from April and as much as 39.7 points (29.7 per cent) above its May 2021 value.
International wheat prices rose for a fourth consecutive month, up 5.6 per cent in May, to an average of 56.2 per cent above their value last year and only 11 per cent below the record high reached in March 2008.
The steep increase in wheat prices was in response to an export ban announced by India amidst concerns over crop conditions in several leading exporting countries, as well as reduced production prospects in Ukraine because of the war. By contrast, international coarse grain prices declined by 2.1 per cent in May but remained 18.1 per cent above their value a year ago.
Slightly improved crop conditions in the United States of America, seasonal supplies in Argentina and the imminent start of Brazil’s main maize harvest led maize prices to decline by 3.0 per cent; however, they remained 12.9 per cent above their level of May 2021.
Similarly, international sorghum prices also fell in May by 3.1 per cent, while spillover from the strength in wheat markets and concerns over crop conditions in the European Union (EU) boosted barley prices by 1.9 per cent.
International rice prices increased for the fifth successive month in May. Quotations strengthened in all the major market segments, but monthly increases were least pronounced (2.6 per cent) for the most widely traded Indica varieties, amid ample supplies, especially in India.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 229.3 points in May, down 8.3 points (3.5 per cent) month-on-month, yet remaining markedly above its year-earlier level.
The monthly decline mainly reflects lower prices across palm, sunflower, soy, and rapeseed oils. International palm oil prices weakened moderately in May.
Apart from demand rationing, the removal of Indonesia’s short-lived export ban on palm oil exerted additional downward pressure on prices, although a further price drop was contained by lingering uncertainties over the country’s export prospects.
Meanwhile, world price quotations for sunflower oil fell from recent record highs, with stocks continuing to accumulate in Ukraine owing to logistical bottlenecks.
International soy and rapeseed oil prices also declined somewhat in May, chiefly weighed by sluggish import demand in view of elevated costs in recent months.
The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 141.6 points in May, down 5.1 points (3.5 per cent) from April, marking the first decline after eight consecutive monthly increases, but still 20.5 points (16.9 per cent) higher than its level in May of last year. World prices of all milk products fell, with milk powders declining the most, underpinned by lower buying interests on market uncertainties stemming from the continued lockdown in China, despite the persistent global supply tightness.
Butter prices also dropped significantly due to weaker import demand in tandem with some improvements to supplies from Oceania and limited internal sales in Europe.
Meanwhile, robust retail sales and high demand from restaurants ahead of the summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere prevented cheese prices from falling significantly, despite weakened global import demand.
The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 122.0 points in May, up 0.6 points (0.5 per cent) from April, setting a new all-time high, driven by a steep rise in world poultry meat prices, more than offsetting declines in pig and ovine meat values.
In May, poultry meat prices rose, reflecting the continued supply chain disruptions in Ukraine and recent cases of avian influenza amid a surge in demand in Europe and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, international bovine meat prices remained stable, as increased supplies from Brazil and Oceania were adequate to meet persistently high global demand.
By contrast, world pig meat prices fell on high export availabilities, especially in Western Europe, amid lacklustre internal demand and expectations for releasing pig meat from the EU Commission’s Private Storage Aid scheme. International prices of ovine meat also dropped, reflecting the impact of currency movements.
The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 120.3 points in May, down 1.3 points (1.1 per cent) from April, marking the first decline after sharp increases registered in the previous two months.
The recent monthly decline in international sugar price quotations was triggered by limited global import demand and good global availability prospects, mostly stemming from a bumper crop in India.
The weakening of the Brazilian Real against the US dollar and lower ethanol prices resulted in further downward pressure on world sugar prices.
However, uncertainties over the current season’s outturn in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, prevented more substantial price declines.
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of the week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note with a 0.26 per cent growth on Friday.
It was the first trading day after the two-day break observed on Wednesday and Thursday for Sallah celebrations by Muslims.
Market participants returned to Customs Street yesterday in high spirits, though keeping an eye on happenings in the macroeconomic environment.
This resulted in the market breadth index closing bearish after recording 32 price gainers and 33 price losers, implying weak investor sentiment.
Sovereign Trust Insurance and Zichis gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N2.75 and N33.00 apiece, International Energy Insurance rose by 9.98 per cent to N4.52, McNichols grew by 9.85 per cent to N8.70, and Aradel Holdings increased by 9.59 per cent to N1,933.80.
Conversely, the trio of CAP, Austin Lax, and Premier Paints lost 10.00 per cent each to settle at N179.10, N3.96, and N33.75 apiece, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank decreased by 9.89 per cent to N4.01, and John Holt fell by 9.84 per cent to N16.95.
As for the performance of the key market sectors yesterday, the banking space shed 2.51 per cent, the consumer goods index depleted by 1.26 per cent, and the industrial goods sector tumbled by 0.05 per cent.
However, bargain-hunting raised the energy segment by 4.38 per cent and lifted the insurance counter by 0.86 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) closed higher by 646.63 points to 250,385.47 points from 249,738.84 points, and the market capitalisation improved by N415 billion to N160.509 trillion from N160.094 trillion.
A total of 1.2 billion stocks worth N43.4 billion exchanged hands in 93,626 deals during the session compared with the 564.1 million stocks valued at N27.2 billion traded in 65,666 deals in the preceding session. This showed that the trading volume, value, and number of deals went up by 112.73 per cent, 59.56 per cent, and 42.58 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank ended the day as the busiest equity with a turnover of 483.0 million units valued at N8.7 billion, Access Holdings transacted 133.3 million units worth N3.2 billion, The Initiates sold 81.7 million units for N2.2 billion, Chams exchanged 43.9 million units valued at N173.8 million, and Dangote Sugar traded 28.4 million units worth N2.0 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira returned from a two-day break on Friday, May 29, stronger against the United States Dollar by 16 Kobo or 0.01 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), trading at N1,375.25/$1 compared with N1,375.41/$1 it was exchanged on Tuesday.
The local currency also appreciated in the same market window against the Pound Sterling during the trading session by N3.62 to sell for N1,848.62/£1 versus N1,852.26/£1, but lost N2.16 against the Euro to close at N1,601.48/€1 compared with the previous rate of N1,599.32/€1.
The official forex market was closed on Wednesday and Thursday for the Sallah break.
A look at the GTBank FX desk showed that the Naira gained N4 against the Dollar yesterday to quote at N1,379/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing value of N1,383/$1, and at the black market, it improved its value by N5 to N1,380/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,385/$1.
Market analysts noted that the Nigerian Naira outlook remains stable, citing the latest round of FX inflows, which have lifted gross external reserves to $49.259 billion. Some projected that the domestic currency will close the first half of 2026 stronger as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to inject FX inflows into the official market.
Also supporting expected stability is the continued government signal of growth. In his third year in office, in a speech on Friday, President Bola Tinubu inherited severe economic and structural challenges in 2023, including exchange-rate distortions, which he said have since been reformed.
“Multiple exchange rate windows and forex arbitrage created massive distortions, with Nigeria losing more than N8 trillion over three years to rent-seeking and speculative practices.”
According to the president, the situation required urgent and courageous decisions to avert a deeper economic crisis and fiscal collapse.
In the cryptocurrency market, US-Iran ceasefire hopes have failed to pull Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) higher, with the two largest cryptocurrencies losing almost 3 per cent as cooling spot bitcoin ETF inflows reinforced the pullback. BTC dropped 0.3 per cent to sell for $73,456.95, while ETH dipped 0.1 per cent to trade at $2,013.29.
Further, TRON (TRX) went down by 2.1 per cent to $0.3427, and Cardano (ADA) dipped 0.4 per cent to close at $0.2348.
On the other hand, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 4.7 per cent to $667.52, Ripple (XRP) grew by 2.00 per cent to $1.34, and Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.1 per cent to $82.27, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The crude oil market shrank by more than 2 per cent on Friday as traders awaited a possible ceasefire deal among the United States, Israel and Iran.
Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel after it lost $1.66 or 1.8 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $87.36 a barrel, down $1.54 or 1.7 per cent.
The latest reports as of Friday suggest that the US and Iran are set to extend the ceasefire, which will include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, such an extension would need to be endorsed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The US and Iran reportedly reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The three-month war between the US and Iran has been marked by frequent chatter of an impending end to the conflict that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, used to transit one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. Even with both sides suggesting an agreement was forthcoming, their characterisations of the deal were still somewhat different.
The closure of the waterway has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. Recent sessions have been volatile, with swings by as much as $6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a potential reopening of the strait.
Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of levels before the conflict, with analysts saying a reopening of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.
Japan, which relies heavily on oil from the Middle East, last month registered a 66 per cent drop in crude oil imports compared with April last year.
Prices plunged by 19 per cent in May as traders and speculators bet on an extended ceasefire and an eventual US-Iran deal despite the biggest physical supply disruption in history. The slump in prices in May follows the biggest monthly surge in history in April, when oil rallied amid the worst supply disruption ever.
Traders spent most of the week looking beyond current supply shortages and focusing on the possibility that a ceasefire agreement could eventually bring barrels back to market, leading to selloffs.
US crude, petrol, and distillate stockpiles fell last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as demand from refiners and consumers rose, while exports fell by 1.16 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day.
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