Economy
How Forex Impacts Trade in Nigeria
By Otori Emmanuel
Nigeria’s economy has been in a slump in recent months owing to inflation, interest rates, public debt, and current account deficits. Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 21.09 per cent in October 2022, up from 15.92 per cent the previous year. The volatile currency exchange rate, however, also has an impact on Nigeria’s economic problems.
The term “Foreign Exchange” or “Forex” refers to a global market where currencies from different countries can be exchanged. The forex markets are often the biggest and most liquid asset markets in the world because of the global nature of commerce, finance and trade. Exchange rate pairs are used to compare currencies to one another and are deemed comparable. Particularly in comparisons to important currencies like the dollar and the pound, the value of the Nigerian naira has declined significantly during the past few years.
The sale of foreign currency to Bureau de Change (BDC) operators was prohibited in 2021, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also stopped approving requests for licenses for Bureau De Changes. This monetary policy by the CBN was intended to bring stability and transparency to the forex market. With the exception of the fact that the supply and demand of forex dictate prices and rarity, this appeared to be a way of reducing illegal subterranean domination of the market.
Why does this matter? An item’s worth is increased by its rarity. In other words, the ban on forex market operators raises the demand for foreign currencies, favouring them over the Naira. The excessive demand for foreign currency drives down the value of the national currency until both domestic goods and services are competitively priced enough to attract international customers.
In foreign markets, a country’s exports are more expensive, and its imports are less expensive when its currency is valued higher. It is reasonable to anticipate that a rising exchange rate will impair a nation’s trade balance.
High Exchange Rates on Trade
A major issue affecting the Nigerian economy and having a threefold impact on businesses has been identified as the unsettling exchange rate. In order to import commodities and raw materials because the naira’s weakening can no longer be controlled, many Nigerians need the dollar.
- Increased exchange expenses – This is a problem for firms that conduct international trades since they are required to pay exchange fees, such as those associated with clearing products and other customs fees, which drive up the cost of goods and services.
- Price hikes – Due to the rising cost of supply, several businesses have had to raise their pricing. Nigeria can only produce a limited amount due to a lack of raw materials; hence importation is required to increase output.
- Subpar productions – Due to Nigeria’s small amount of continuous production and its limited resource base, product quality has severely declined. Every player in the economy, from suppliers to producers to end consumers, is impacted by this chain of deficiencies. Raw materials that are of high quality and are reasonably priced for producers are challenging for suppliers to supply. Producers are forced to raise the prices of commodities to cover the expenses of production.
As a result of these issues, businesses are experiencing poor patronage. Many consumers seek alternatives to high pricing, such as sachetization of things, providing demands on a scale of choice, and reducing quantities. If the CBN reduces onerous forex regulation and price-fixing of the nominal standard rate, demand and supply of dollars could really work to balance the market and trade activities.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Foreign Exchange (FX) demand pressure eased on the Naira on Wednesday, April 8, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) after gaining N14.84 or 1.07 per cent against the greenback to quote at N1,371.82/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,386.66/$1.
Also, the local currency appreciated against the Euro in the same market window at midweek by N1.54 to close at N1,604.07/€1 versus Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,605.61/€1, but lost N6.26 against the Pound Sterling to trade at N1,844.83/£1 versus N1,838.57/£1.
In the parallel market, the exchange rate of the Naira to the US Dollar remained unchanged yesterday at N1,410/$1, according to data sourced by Business Post.
There were indicators that the official FX market experienced a liquidity surge, which eased worries around the dominant US Dollar on Wednesday, as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed interbank deals rose to 220 from 71 reported the previous day.
The domestic currency has been in strong demand from foreign portfolio investors seeking to purchase OMO bills and other fixed-income instruments.
Forecasts also show that the local currency will remain relatively stable during the second quarter of the year, trading within the N1,340 to N1,430 per Dollar band on improved FX liquidity, stronger oil earnings, and rising external reserves, which have climbed above 50 billion dollars.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it fell after an initial ceasefire-fueled rally, with markets retracing Wednesday’s “ceasefire euphoria” as cracks emerge in the US-Iran truce while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Global risk assets face renewed pressure as geopolitical uncertainty combines with what analysts call “uncoordinated tightening” by major central banks, reinforcing higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations.
The price of Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.7 per cent to $0.2500, Ripple (XRP) slumped 3.7 per cent to $1.33, Dogecoin (DOGE) shrank by 3.5 per cent to $0.0915, Binance Coin (BNB) slipped 2.6 per cent to $600.02, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 2.5 per cent to $2,183.82, Solana (SOL) dipped 2.5 per cent to $82.24, and Bitcoin (BTC) depreciated by 1.1 per cent to $70,995.20.
However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.4 per cent to $0.3173, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 0.28 per cent on Wednesday despite weak investor sentiment, as the bourse ended with 18 price gainers and 38 price losers, implying a negative market breadth index.
The growth recorded yesterday by Customs Street was influenced by the 2.11 per cent rise posted by the energy index, and the 1.79 per cent jump achieved by the banking sector.
The other sectors experienced profit-taking, with the consumer goods losing 1.07 per cent, the insurance counter down by 0.36 per cent, and the industrial goods space down by 0.19 per cent.
Universal Insurance chalked up 10.00 per cent to sell for N1.21, Omatek improved by 9.78 per cent to N2.47, VFD Group expanded by 9.71 per cent to N11.30, CWG appreciated by 9.64 per cent to N21.05, and Livestock Feeds gained 9.56 per cent to close at N7.45.
On the flip side, UPDC REIT lost 10.00 per cent to settle at N6.75, Fortis Global Insurance shed 9.92 per cent to quote at N1.18, Deap Capital depreciated by 9.85 per cent to N5.40, Chams went down by 9.47 per cent to N3.06, and Japaul declined by 8.82 per cent to N3.10.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 562.43 points to 202,585.53 points from 202,023.10 points, and the market capitalisation advanced by N389 billion to N130.404 trillion from N130.015 trillion.
During the session, 1.0 billion stocks worth N40.6 billion exchanged hands in 52,723 deals compared with the 1.1 billion stocks valued at N40.3 billion executed in 78,006 deals a day earlier, indicating an uptick in the trading value by 0.74 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and number of deals by 9.09 per cent and 32.41 per cent apiece.
The activity chart was led by Access Holdings, which sold 233.0 million units valued at N6.1 billion, Fidelity Bank exchanged 113.1 million units worth N2.2 billion, Wema Bank recorded a turnover of 103.3 million units valued at N2.7 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 60.6 million units for N6.5 billion, and Chams traded 47.5 million units worth N154.6 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil plummeted on Wednesday on hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
Brent crude futures moderated to $94.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased to $94.41 a barrel.
President Trump said on Wednesday that the US will work closely with Iran and will be talking about tariff and sanctions relief with Iran.
However, analysts cautioned that the ceasefire is a temporary two-week reprieve rather than a permanent resolution, and the global energy system remains fragile due to structural damage to regional infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Iran could open the strait in a limited and controlled way on Thursday or Friday ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that two ships appeared to have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran ceasefire deal. A Greek-owned bulk carrier and a Liberia-flagged vessel both transited the waterway early on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Israel carried out its heaviest strikes on Lebanon since the conflict with Hezbollah broke out last month, even as the Iran-aligned group paused attacks on northern Israel and Israeli troops in Lebanon under the ceasefire.
Also, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical artery bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was reportedly hit in an Iranian drone attack. Prior to the attack, the pipeline was pumping at its emergency capacity of 7 million barrels per day to bypass the shuttered strait.
The strikes occurred just hours after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which has so far failed to halt regional hostilities. Other facilities in the kingdom were also targeted in the wave of strikes, which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed included oil facilities owned by American companies in Yanbu.
US crude stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels during the week ended April 3, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
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