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Major Indicators That Will Shape Nigeria in 2023

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shape Nigeria in 2023

The year 2022 has been an eventful one. As we close out on all activities of the year and look forward to a new one, it is important that we begin to envisage what the new year portends and be better prepared. The outgoing year has been marked with some remarkable incidences: President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Act 2022, the CBN issued a string of controversial announcements, the Nigerian government plans to wean off the subsidy regime starting next year, and 5G made it to Nigeria; however, rollouts have been slow.

These and many more are the highlights that shaped 2022, but in this article, we will be focusing on major events that have been projected to shape Nigeria in 2023.

General Elections

The upcoming general election in February 2023 will be Nigeria’s seventh democratic election. It has been recognized as one of the most significant electoral events in the country’s history of elections as there are more candidates contesting for the presidential seat, with more Nigerians becoming politically aware and involved.

And in a historic move, Nigeria will be transmitting its election results electronically for the first time in the upcoming elections, as is contained in the Electoral Act 2022, that promises of a credible election. Political analysts have praised the signing of the Act, as it foretells a more transparent electoral system to allow for the smooth running of the country’s democratic processes. The outcome of the elections will, in no small measure, determine the extent of the economic growth of the country.

CBN’s Domestic Card

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had announced plans to develop a National domestic card scheme which it expects to take off in January 2023. Among its reasons for the card scheme launch, the CBN listed financial inclusion, consumers’ data sovereignty and Enabling banks to offer differentiated products and services.

The big question, however, is, does the CBN need to launch a domestic card to achieve these? Currently, in Nigeria, there are existing local and international card schemes that are meeting these needs already. These card schemes, notably Mastercard, Visa, and Verve cards, are enabling banks to offer enough differentiated products and services, among other card payment benefits.

The Verve card particularly is a Nigerian home-grown domestic card scheme and one of Africa’s most successful indigenous payment cards. It has grown its value proposition and market base to be accepted in over 180 countries and issued in countries across Africa, providing secure and ubiquitous payment options.

Not only are these card schemes delivering on the goals of the proposed domestic card scheme, telecommunication operators, Payment Service Banks (PSBs), Fintechs, Commercial banks, and Microfinance banks are playing in this space to create a more financially inclusive, data secure, and product differentiated payment ecosystem.

Another question the CBN will be forced to answer in the new year while launching its domestic card is the ethical question of fairness. Will the CBN be playing fair now that the regulator has also become a player? There has been widespread concern over the ethical disposition of this move. Experts believe the CBN will want to coerce the banks and even Nigerians (cardholders) to subscribe to the government-owned card.

CBN’s entry into the card business; experts project it will effectively crowd out competition and directly compete with homegrown cards as well as other international card companies. They further suggest that instead of playing in the field, the apex bank should remain in its role as a regulator while providing institutional support for existing players, ensuring that they meet the set standards for the benefit of the domestic economy.  2023 will decide.

Slow Economic Growth

The World Bank adjusted its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2023 from 3.3 per cent to 3.2 per cent. The global financial institution noted that the slow growth would be propped by an increase in private consumption, which will be driven by subsiding inflationary pressures.

2022 saw Nigeria record its highest inflation figure since 2005 at 21.15 per cent. This inflation was majorly instigated by; disruptions in the food distribution network resulting from insecurity, high importation costs, currency depreciation, and a bump in the cost of production.

As the new year unveils, keen expectations will be for the government, through the CBN, to be more intentional about its fiscal and monetary policies and proffer business-friendly initiatives that will help tackle the challenges affecting macroeconomic growth.

5G Rollout

It’s the era of the 5th generation mobile network, which sets to drive faster and enhanced communication. As of June 2022, about 70 countries have deployed the 5G technology, with projections that more users will be onboarded. Earlier this year, Nigerians joined the list of 5G users after an auction process was announced by the National Communication Commission (NCC) for the 3.5GHz 5G spectrum.

With this, the NCC will enable licensed operators with existing infrastructure to provide 5G services to Nigerians while providing a regulatory framework that will guide these providers of the 5G network on how to protect users.

Although the rollout is not as extensive yet, experts believe the technology holds a trove of benefits for Nigerians, both individuals and businesses. It is expected that the adoption of this technology will increase opportunities and throw up new businesses with the evolution of blockchain in 2023, which will determine just how much work needs to be done to ensure that advanced technologies are accessible to more Nigerians.

2023, as with any election year, holds a lot of uncertainties, but the hope is that the theme of collaboration endures. Collaboration between the government and private sector players, and collaboration between the government and the citizens to create a robust and efficient economy.

Growth in the Oil Sector

As Europe completely wane itself off the Russian energy and the promises the recently passed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) holds, Nigeria poses as a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment for oil and gas.

The government has recently redesigned its security strategy along the Niger Delta corridor to curb installation vandalization and oil theft. The new strategy of engaging the militants in addition to the military operations in the Niger Delta is expected to increase the daily oil production from 1.22m b/d towards the OPEC stipulated 1.7m b/d.

The government has also speculated it will be removing oil subsidies from its spending in the new year.

Other growth indicators in the oil sector include the recent commercialisation of the government-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, which will further liberalise the sector. The completed Dangote Refinery, with its 650,000 b/d is expected to meet Nigeria’s fuel requirement, provided domestic oil prices are cost-effective, and fuel imports are lowered.

With all these efficient components brought together; expected foreign investment, increased security, increased daily oil production, removal of oil subsidy and the take-off of the Dangote refinery- the oil sector is going to be a major contributor to the economy’s balance of payment.

The new year indeed looks viable; the supposition is that the key players, government, businesses, and individuals will take their roles assiduously and deliberately work towards making the new year a productive and prosperous one for all.

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Economy

Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, Chams Emerge Busiest Equities

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Access Holdings

By Dipo Olowookere

The three busiest equities on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week were Access Holdings, Fidelity Bank, and Chams Holdco.

The trio accounted for 20.90 per cent and 5.69 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively, after trading 485.749 million units worth N7.656 billion in 17,843 deals.

In the week, investors transacted 2.324 billion shares valued at N134.486 billion in 249,328 deals versus the 3.075 billion shares worth N254.614 billion executed in 287,157 deals in the previous week.

The financial services space led the activity chart with 1.523 billion stocks sold for N47.542 billion in 105,230 deals, contributing 65.53 per cent and 35.35 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively. The ICT industry exchanged 198.821 million shares worth N32.622 billion in 29,905 deals, and the consumer goods sector posted a turnover of 151.635 million shares worth N10.933 billion in 23,951 deals.

In the five-day trading week, 22 equities appreciated versus 11 equities a week earlier, 57 equities depreciated versus 78 equities of the previous week, and 67 equities remained unchanged versus 57 equities in the preceding week.

McNichols gained 26.47 per cent to trade at N8.60, International Energy Insurance appreciated by 14.43 per cent to N5.79, GTCO expanded by 10.69 per cent to N127.90, First Holdco jumped by 10.00 per cent to N55.00, and Airtel Africa also climbed 10.00 per cent to settle at N4,358.80.

On the flip side, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 26.79 per cent to N3.28, Deap Capital slipped by 23.31 per cent to N3.75, Abbey Mortgage Bank lost 20.30 per cent to trade at N8.05, Aradel Holdings contracted by 19.00 per cent to N1,417.50, and Regency Assurance dropped 18.56 per cent to close at 79 Kobo.

The All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation, which measures the performance level of Customs Street, depreciated last week by 1.65 per cent and 1.60 per cent each to 232,049.02 points and N148.905 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower except the CG, banking, AFR Bank Value, AFR Div Yield and MERI Value indices, which grew by 2.40 per cent, 3.51 per cent, 3.28 per cent, 9.93 per cent and 0.56 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Proposed Import Ban Won’t Revive Nigeria’s Textile Industry—CPPE

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textile ban

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has cautioned against the Senate’s resolution seeking to ban the importation of textile fabrics, warning that such a move could be counterintuitive as it would undermine key industries, threaten millions of jobs and fail to revive Nigeria’s struggling textile sector.

According to the chief executive of the think-tank, Mr Muda Yusuf, while the objective of revitalising the textile industry was commendable, an outright import prohibition would likely create more economic challenges than solutions.

The Senate had urged the federal government to implement an import ban for an initial period of five years. The motion, sponsored by Senator Sunday Katung, is to create a protected window for domestic cotton farmers and local textile mills to scale up production.

Mr Yusuf noted that the import ban wasn’t the major driving force behind the country’s ailing textile sector, adding that it was driven mainly by structural constraints such as high energy costs, poor infrastructure, expensive credit and obsolete technology.

Other factors, he said, driving the decline of the sector included logistics bottlenecks, smuggling and policy inconsistency, rather than import competition.

According to him, restricting textile imports will disrupt production across the country’s garment, fashion, tailoring, furniture and interior design industries, which depend heavily on imported fabrics as production inputs.

He said that Nigeria’s fashion, garment-making and tailoring industry, valued at about N10 trillion, supported an estimated 10 million livelihoods and represented one of the country’s most vibrant creative economy sectors.

He further stated that the sector generates significant domestic value addition through design, tailoring, branding, embroidery, merchandising and retailing, often exceeding the value of the imported textile inputs.

“Restricting textile imports would increase production costs, reduce consumer choice and threaten thousands of micro, small and medium enterprises engaged in fashion, tailoring and garment manufacturing,” he said.

Mr Yusuf added that textile fabrics were also critical inputs for the furniture and interior design industry, valued at about N7 trillion, warning that supply disruptions would weaken the competitiveness of manufacturers.

He further noted that imported textile fabrics already attracted a combined Import Duty and Import Adjustment Tax of between 35 per cent and 45 per cent, yet the existing tariff protection had not restored the competitiveness of local textile manufacturers.

“The core problem lies in production economics rather than import penetration. An import ban addresses the symptom while leaving the underlying causes unresolved,” he said.

Mr Yusuf also maintained that local textile manufacturers currently lacked the capacity to meet the quantity, quality and diversity of fabrics required by the country’s fashion, garment, furniture and interior design industries.

He warned that an outright import ban could therefore create supply shortages and negatively affect downstream sectors that generated significantly more employment than textile manufacturing itself.

The CPPE boss advocated a comprehensive value-chain strategy to revive the textile industry and called for the restoration of domestic cotton production through improved security, mechanisation, better seedlings, extension services and guaranteed off-take arrangements.

He also stressed the need for affordable long-term financing, access to modern technology, a reliable energy supply and a more competitive operating environment for manufacturers.

Among other recommendations, Yusuf urged the government to prioritise locally produced textiles and garments for uniforms used by the military, paramilitary agencies, schools and other public institutions.

He also recommended the establishment of a Textile Competitiveness Fund financed from textile-related import tax revenues to support technology upgrades and industry modernisation.

Other measures proposed include strengthening border enforcement to curb smuggling and implementing reforms aimed at reducing energy and financing costs while improving industrial infrastructure.

Mr Yusuf stressed that sustainable revival of Nigeria’s textile industry would depend on improving competitiveness rather than imposing additional import restrictions.

He warned that a blanket import ban could encourage smuggling, reduce customs revenue and weaken a broader value chain that contributed substantially to employment and economic growth.

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Economy

Pathway Advisors Champions Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper for Downstream Expansion

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Pathway Pivot Energy’s N300bn Commercial Paper

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pathway Advisors Limited has announced its role as Lead Issuing House to a N300 billion Commercial Paper Programme for Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, reinforcing its leadership in capital market advisory and energy sector finance.

The transaction was formally concluded with the execution of programme documentation at Capital Club, Victoria Island, Lagos, following the completion of all regulatory and programme clearances. The signing ceremony marked a defining milestone in mobilising large-scale short-term capital for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Speaking at the event, the chief executive of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade, emphasised the strategic significance of the Commercial Paper issuance in financing working capital, thereby enabling high-growth energy businesses to scale efficiently and sustainably.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, accelerated by the removal of fuel subsidies, the emergence of domestic refining capacity, and rising demand for reliable product supply across the country and the broader West African region.

“Companies like Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited with a vertically integrated model, a strong track record, and a clear growth mandate are exactly the kind of issuers that the capital markets should be financing,” Mr Alade stated.

“Commercial paper, when structured appropriately, gives operationally strong businesses access to a deep and diverse pool of institutional investors, at tenors and costs that support the working capital intensity of petroleum trading and distribution. This transaction is a testament to what is achievable when credible issuers partner with experienced advisers to access the markets,” he added.

“The successful execution of this programme further affirms Pathway Advisors’ position as a trusted financial advisory and investment banking firm in complex, large-scale capital market transactions,” he stated.

In his comments, the chief executive of Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, Mr Babajide Babatope, described the commercial paper programme as a pivotal step in the company’s strategy to expand its supply capacity and strengthen its position as a leading integrated energy provider in Nigeria and West Africa.

“Nigeria’s downstream energy market demands scale, speed, and the right capital structure to compete effectively. This commercial paper programme gives us the financial firepower to support our growing volumes, reinforce our supply chain, and serve our customers with greater reliability across the regions we operate in,” Mr Babatope disclosed.

He noted that Pivot is one of the 20 approved off-takers in the Dangote Refinery PMS Consortium, with a target volume of 300 million litres per quarter, a position that underscores the company’s standing in Nigeria’s post-subsidy energy supply architecture. He added that the CP Programme would also support the company’s accelerating regional push, including active operations in Ghana, where Pivot has delivered over 100,000 MT since April 2025, and a planned entry into Tanzania with deliveries targeted in Q3 of 2026.

Mr Babatope further expressed appreciation to Pathway Advisors and other transaction parties for their professionalism, rigour, and commitment throughout the programme’s execution, and signalled his intention to continue deepening these partnerships as Pivot advances to subsequent phases of growth and financing.

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