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Major Indicators That Will Shape Nigeria in 2023

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The year 2022 has been an eventful one. As we close out on all activities of the year and look forward to a new one, it is important that we begin to envisage what the new year portends and be better prepared. The outgoing year has been marked with some remarkable incidences: President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Electoral Act 2022, the CBN issued a string of controversial announcements, the Nigerian government plans to wean off the subsidy regime starting next year, and 5G made it to Nigeria; however, rollouts have been slow.

These and many more are the highlights that shaped 2022, but in this article, we will be focusing on major events that have been projected to shape Nigeria in 2023.

General Elections

The upcoming general election in February 2023 will be Nigeria’s seventh democratic election. It has been recognized as one of the most significant electoral events in the country’s history of elections as there are more candidates contesting for the presidential seat, with more Nigerians becoming politically aware and involved.

And in a historic move, Nigeria will be transmitting its election results electronically for the first time in the upcoming elections, as is contained in the Electoral Act 2022, that promises of a credible election. Political analysts have praised the signing of the Act, as it foretells a more transparent electoral system to allow for the smooth running of the country’s democratic processes. The outcome of the elections will, in no small measure, determine the extent of the economic growth of the country.

CBN’s Domestic Card

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had announced plans to develop a National domestic card scheme which it expects to take off in January 2023. Among its reasons for the card scheme launch, the CBN listed financial inclusion, consumers’ data sovereignty and Enabling banks to offer differentiated products and services.

The big question, however, is, does the CBN need to launch a domestic card to achieve these? Currently, in Nigeria, there are existing local and international card schemes that are meeting these needs already. These card schemes, notably Mastercard, Visa, and Verve cards, are enabling banks to offer enough differentiated products and services, among other card payment benefits.

The Verve card particularly is a Nigerian home-grown domestic card scheme and one of Africa’s most successful indigenous payment cards. It has grown its value proposition and market base to be accepted in over 180 countries and issued in countries across Africa, providing secure and ubiquitous payment options.

Not only are these card schemes delivering on the goals of the proposed domestic card scheme, telecommunication operators, Payment Service Banks (PSBs), Fintechs, Commercial banks, and Microfinance banks are playing in this space to create a more financially inclusive, data secure, and product differentiated payment ecosystem.

Another question the CBN will be forced to answer in the new year while launching its domestic card is the ethical question of fairness. Will the CBN be playing fair now that the regulator has also become a player? There has been widespread concern over the ethical disposition of this move. Experts believe the CBN will want to coerce the banks and even Nigerians (cardholders) to subscribe to the government-owned card.

CBN’s entry into the card business; experts project it will effectively crowd out competition and directly compete with homegrown cards as well as other international card companies. They further suggest that instead of playing in the field, the apex bank should remain in its role as a regulator while providing institutional support for existing players, ensuring that they meet the set standards for the benefit of the domestic economy.  2023 will decide.

Slow Economic Growth

The World Bank adjusted its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2023 from 3.3 per cent to 3.2 per cent. The global financial institution noted that the slow growth would be propped by an increase in private consumption, which will be driven by subsiding inflationary pressures.

2022 saw Nigeria record its highest inflation figure since 2005 at 21.15 per cent. This inflation was majorly instigated by; disruptions in the food distribution network resulting from insecurity, high importation costs, currency depreciation, and a bump in the cost of production.

As the new year unveils, keen expectations will be for the government, through the CBN, to be more intentional about its fiscal and monetary policies and proffer business-friendly initiatives that will help tackle the challenges affecting macroeconomic growth.

5G Rollout

It’s the era of the 5th generation mobile network, which sets to drive faster and enhanced communication. As of June 2022, about 70 countries have deployed the 5G technology, with projections that more users will be onboarded. Earlier this year, Nigerians joined the list of 5G users after an auction process was announced by the National Communication Commission (NCC) for the 3.5GHz 5G spectrum.

With this, the NCC will enable licensed operators with existing infrastructure to provide 5G services to Nigerians while providing a regulatory framework that will guide these providers of the 5G network on how to protect users.

Although the rollout is not as extensive yet, experts believe the technology holds a trove of benefits for Nigerians, both individuals and businesses. It is expected that the adoption of this technology will increase opportunities and throw up new businesses with the evolution of blockchain in 2023, which will determine just how much work needs to be done to ensure that advanced technologies are accessible to more Nigerians.

2023, as with any election year, holds a lot of uncertainties, but the hope is that the theme of collaboration endures. Collaboration between the government and private sector players, and collaboration between the government and the citizens to create a robust and efficient economy.

Growth in the Oil Sector

As Europe completely wane itself off the Russian energy and the promises the recently passed Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) holds, Nigeria poses as a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment for oil and gas.

The government has recently redesigned its security strategy along the Niger Delta corridor to curb installation vandalization and oil theft. The new strategy of engaging the militants in addition to the military operations in the Niger Delta is expected to increase the daily oil production from 1.22m b/d towards the OPEC stipulated 1.7m b/d.

The government has also speculated it will be removing oil subsidies from its spending in the new year.

Other growth indicators in the oil sector include the recent commercialisation of the government-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, which will further liberalise the sector. The completed Dangote Refinery, with its 650,000 b/d is expected to meet Nigeria’s fuel requirement, provided domestic oil prices are cost-effective, and fuel imports are lowered.

With all these efficient components brought together; expected foreign investment, increased security, increased daily oil production, removal of oil subsidy and the take-off of the Dangote refinery- the oil sector is going to be a major contributor to the economy’s balance of payment.

The new year indeed looks viable; the supposition is that the key players, government, businesses, and individuals will take their roles assiduously and deliberately work towards making the new year a productive and prosperous one for all.

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Economy

Crude Oil Prices Climb on Fears of Prolonged Iran War Disruptions

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices climbed about 3 per cent on Monday as worries over supply disruption from the Iran war offset a report that the US had agreed to ‌waive sanctions on Iranian crude during talks.

Brent futures rose $2.84 or 2.6 per cent to $112.10 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery jumped $3.24 or 3.1 per cent to $108.66 per barrel.

Drone attacks on both the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia further dimmed hopes of any de-escalation in the region.

The drone strikes included an attack that led to a fire near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE, with the country’s defence ministry saying two other drones had been successfully dealt with. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones that entered its airspace from Iraq.

These attacks are just the latest in a string of attacks on US allies in the region after President Donald Trump launched Project Freedom, his latest attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for trade.

The lack of a breakthrough on an Iran agreement during President Trump’s visit to China also added to upward pressure for oil prices, with fears of major global shortages now rising rapidly.

Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said ​commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ worth left due to the conflict and the closure of the strait to shipping.

The head of the Paris-based agency, Mr Fatih Birol, said the release of strategic reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but they were “not endless”.

Reuters cited an Iranian media report that the US had accepted in the new text to waive Iran’s oil sanctions during the period of talks, also reporting that Pakistan has shared with the US a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East.

According to the Financial Times, Scotland-based economists are now examining a scenario where Brent crude surges to $180 per barrel if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for an extended period.

In China, growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output cooling and retail sales sinking to more than three-year lows as the world’s second-biggest economy faced higher energy costs from the Iran war and persistently weak domestic demand.

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Economy

FG Unveils Tax Ombud Office’s Website, Toll-Free Call Centre

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to building a transparent, accountable and citizen-focused tax administration system, with the unveiling of the official website and launch of the toll-free call centre of the Tax Ombud Office.

The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mr Mohammed Idris, on Monday described the development as a major step toward improving public confidence in the country’s tax system and enhancing access to complaint-resolution services for taxpayers.

“This is a major milestone in strengthening public trust, improving accessibility, and promoting fairness in Nigeria’s tax administration system. Effective communication and citizen engagement remain central to the success of ongoing economic reforms such as this,” the minister said.

He noted that the Mr Bola Tinubu-led administration was focused on implementing reforms aimed at strengthening revenue generation, ensuring fiscal sustainability and driving national development.

According to him, “Under the visionary leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the federal government remains steadfast in its commitment to building a stronger, more resilient, and prosperous economy through bold and strategic reforms.”

The minister stressed the importance of taxation in national development, saying it provides resources needed for investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, transportation and security.

He, however, maintained that tax administration must be built on trust, transparency and fairness rather than enforcement alone.

“Tax administration cannot succeed on enforcement alone. It must be supported by public trust, transparency, fairness, and effective communication,” Mr Idris stated.

He explained that the Tax Ombud Office was created to serve as a bridge between taxpayers and tax authorities by providing a fair and professional platform for handling complaints and resolving disputes.

The minister also commended the introduction of the toll-free call centre and official website, describing them as important tools for improving public access to information and removing communication barriers.

“The launch of the Toll-Free Call Centre demonstrates a commitment to removing communication barriers and ensuring that Nigerians can easily seek information, make enquiries, and resolve complaints without unnecessary difficulties or financial burden,” he added.

Mr Idris further emphasised the need for sustained civic education and public enlightenment to encourage voluntary tax compliance and responsible citizenship.

“Tax education is not just about revenue generation; it is about building a culture of national participation and shared responsibility,” he said.

The minister warned that misinformation and poor communication often weaken public trust in reforms, calling for stronger collaboration among government institutions, the media, civil society groups and other stakeholders.

“Misinformation and inadequate communication often contribute to distrust and resistance to reforms. This underscores the importance of strategic media engagement and sustained public communication,” he noted.

He pledged the continued support of the Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation in sensitising Nigerians on tax reforms, taxpayers’ rights and available complaint-resolution mechanisms.

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Economy

Peter Obi Raises Eyebrows Over Tinubu’s $11.6bn Debt Servicing Plan

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed worry over plans by the administration of President Bola Tinubu to spend about $11.6 billion on debt servicing.

In a post on his social media platform on Monday, the opposition politician criticised this move, saying it is not good for the country.

He also said this action “should concern anyone interested in the country’s economic future and long-term development.”

The former Governor of Anambra State kicked against the penchant of the government to borrow from various sources without anything to show for it.

“There is nothing inherently wrong with borrowing when it is guided by prudence and directed toward productive investment, he noted, stressing that countries such as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Indonesia are all heavily indebted, yet their borrowings are largely channelled into education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation – sectors that generate long-term economic returns and sustain repayment capacity.”

According to him, “despite high debt levels, their obligations remain more manageable because they are tied to measurable productivity.”

He said, “Nigeria’s situation, however, is markedly different. A huge proportion of past borrowing has been directed toward consumption, with limited visible or sustainable developmental outcomes to justify the scale of indebtedness.”

“It is also important to note that a huge portion of the debt currently being serviced was accumulated under the Tinubu administration itself, while borrowing has continued at a significant pace. The administration’s recent external borrowing alone includes about $6 billion (from First Abu Dhabi Bank in the UAE—$5 billion, and UK Export Finance via Citibank London—$1 billion), a further $1.25 billion under consideration from the World Bank, and an additional $516 million arranged through Deutsche Bank, bringing the latest known external loan commitments to roughly $7.8 billion. In addition, domestic borrowing through monthly bond issuances continues to add to the overall debt stock,” the businessman also stated.

“Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2026 budget shows that health is N2.46 trillion, education is N2.56 trillion, and poverty alleviation is N865 billion, giving a combined total of about N5.885 trillion for these three critical sectors.

“By comparison, debt servicing at about $11.6 billion (approximately N17–N18 trillion, depending on exchange rate assumptions) is almost three times higher than the total allocation to health, education, and social protection combined. This imbalance highlights a troubling fiscal reality in which debt obligations increasingly crowd out investment in human capital and poverty reduction.

“Moreover, even within the limited allocations to these sectors, funds may not be fully released, and a significant portion of what is eventually released could be misappropriated,” he further stated.

Mr Obi said, “The central issue is not borrowing itself, but whether borrowed funds are being converted into measurable productivity, inclusive growth, and improved living standards. Without this, debt servicing shifts from being a temporary fiscal obligation to a long-term structural burden that constrains development and deepens economic vulnerability.”

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