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Agusto Seeks Improvement in Nigeria’s Electric Power Production

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Research and credit ratings firm, Agusto & Co. has identified strategies for more improvement in the country’s electric power production.

In a research note shared with Business Post, the agency noted that Nigeria’s electric power consumption per capita of 145KwH falls behind those of select peers, South Africa (4,198) and Ghana (351KwH), as well as the average for lower middle-income countries of 811KwH.

“Following the unbundling and subsequent privatization of the long-standing government-owned monopoly in the power sector, as part of the power sector reform of 2004, honest and objective evaluations of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry’s (‘NESI’) performance in the post-power privatization era have ranged from ‘minimal improvement’ to ‘more of the same’. The entire NESI value chain is fraught with structural impediments, which have continued to impede optimal performance, with operators consistently ‘passing the buck’,” Agusto noted.

Nigeria, according to the World Bank, has the largest energy access deficit in 2021, with 43 per cent (or 85 million Nigerians) of the country’s population without access to grid-connected electricity.

“As of 31 December 2022, the generating segment of the market comprised 29 operational generating plants with a combined installed capacity of 13,014MW and an average operational capacity of 4,523MW – down 29 per cent from 6,371.9MW in 2019.

“There were 12 Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Nigeria in 2022, accounting for 31.2 per cent  of the country’s total power generating capacity, a 300 basis points decline from 2021 – due largely to gas constraints and faulty machinery.”

Agusto & Co. pointed out that on average, and due largely to gas constraints, only five IPPs: Azura-Edo (26 per cent), Odukpani (19 per cent), Okpai (16 per cent), Afam VI (15 per cent), and Rivers IPP (8 per cent) jointly accounted for circa 84 per cent of the power generated from the 12 IPPs in the last four years.

Agusto also explained that lingering gas shortages are proving to be difficult for Africa’s largest economy.

“Gas constraints remain prevalent despite the fact that Nigeria has the world’s ninth-largest proven gas reserves, estimated at 204 trillion cubic feet in 2022. The domestic gas market in Nigeria has been plagued by chronic underinvestment in generating and distribution infrastructure.

“At the same time, under the domestic supply obligation framework within the Gas Master Plan (GMP), all gas companies are required to supply an assigned quota of gas to critical sectors (including electric power) at prices ($2.18mscf) lower than what is obtainable in international markets (average of $7.52mscf in the US market in 2022).”

As a result, “operators of thermal plants struggle to secure viable gas contracts at the approved price.  As at the end of 2022, 25 of the country’s 29 GenCos were gas-powered, underscoring the urgency of finding a long-term solution to gas supply constraints,” the note explained.

The firm noted that the weakest link in the NESI value chain is the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which is still entirely government-owned.

“The national grid has a wheeling capacity of circa 8,100MW, which pales in comparison to the nation’s peak electricity demand of 19,798 MW. This implication is that even with an increase in the generating capacity of the grid-connected IPPs, the TCN is unable to evacuate more than 8,100MW.”

Agusto & Co. noted that the TCN is a critical bottleneck in the supply of electricity and has stalled investment in power generation.

“On the other hand, the TCN continues to blame load rejection by distribution companies, particularly during the rainy season, for the high frequency of grid collapses.”

Agusto & Co. anticipates that the current Nigerian Electricity Grid Maintenance Expansion and Rehabilitation Program (NEGMERP), which aims to expand the country’s grid network through the diligent execution of network expansion projects funded by both the Federal Government and donors, will result in some growth in NESI in the short term.

This is in addition to the Presidential Power Initiative signed with Siemens AG, which is expected to result in an additional 25,000MW of operational capacity from the national grid.

“The completion of such projects will assure prospective power generation companies that the TCN has ample capacity to receive generated electricity. With a more efficient TCN, Nigeria can achieve self-sufficiency in power supply, making electricity exports easier through the West African Power Pool’s (WAPP) future Regional Electricity Market (REM).”

Agusto lauded President Muhammadu Buhari’s signing of the Fifth Alteration Bill No. 33, 2022 (the “Electricity Constitutional Amendment”), which allows Nigeria’s 36 States to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid.

“This has significant implications for the country’s struggling power sector, as it could lead to increased investment in power generation and distribution infrastructure, as well as increased competition among power providers.

“By devolving power to the States, Agusto & Co. believes the bill could also lead to more efficient and effective management of the power sector, as states will have greater control over their power supply. This could lead to more targeted investment in power infrastructure and more responsive management of power supply and demand.”

This is without some limitation as, “the bill also raises concerns about the potential for fragmentation of the power sector, as different states may have different priorities and approaches to power generation and distribution, leading some, to possibly bypass the national grid entirely.

“Furthermore, States deemed to lack a sufficient economic base may be unable to attract investors in their electricity generation, transmission, or distribution, causing them to fall behind other States in terms of electricity supply. This could constrain the business environments in these States, thereby eroding investor confidence, discouraging investment, and limiting economic growth and development.”

Giving its outlook, the firm noted that the NESI is currently in the second stage – the transitional electricity market (TEM) – on its evolutionary path, where the state-owned special purpose vehicle (the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc – ‘NBET’) buys electricity in bulk from the generating companies and independent power producers (IPPs) and resells to the distribution companies (DisCos) under vesting contracts.

As it transitions to the medium-term market, Agusto & Co. expects more IPPs to become operational, which will significantly raise the Industry’s generation capacity over the medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Lagos to Probe Alakija Building Collapse, Prosecute Culprits

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos State Government has said it will investigate the collapse of a three-storey building in the Alakija area of the state and prosecute anyone found culpable, while warning residents against ignoring evacuation notices issued on distressed structures.

The Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr Gbenga Omotoso, gave the warning on Friday while commiserating with the families of the victims, describing the incident as unfortunate.

“Our first duty is to commiserate with the families who lost their loved ones in this unfortunate incident. On behalf of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, we sympathise with them and pray that such a tragedy never occurs again,” he said.

Latest update from the state government put the casualty figures at 27 rescued and nine fatalities, including a baby.

He disclosed that 27 persons were rescued alive from the rubble, while nine others lost their lives despite overnight rescue efforts.

“By the grace of God, we have been able to rescue 27 people. Unfortunately, we lost nine persons and this is very sad. We share the pain of the affected families,” he said.

According to the commissioner, the collapsed building had earlier been identified as distressed and marked for evacuation, but some occupants allegedly returned after initially leaving.

“As you can see, these buildings had been marked as distressed and people were asked to leave. Unfortunately, some residents returned after pretending to have moved out, leading to this tragic outcome,” Mr Omotoso said.

He added that other distressed buildings in the area would be demolished to prevent similar incidents.

“All the buildings that have been identified as defective will go down. We cannot wait until another tragedy occurs before taking action. The protection of lives remains our priority,” he said.

Mr Omotoso also condemned the construction and occupation of buildings beneath high-tension power lines, describing the practice as unsafe and unacceptable.

“It is not done in any civilised society. Such developments show disregard for safety regulations and contempt for the law. Government will continue to clamp down on such violations,” he said.

He assured residents that a full investigation into the collapse had commenced, stressing that anyone found responsible would face prosecution.

“The owners of the building are under investigation. Anybody found complicit in this tragedy will face the law. They will be prosecuted because no one is above the law,” he said.

The commissioner said most of the rescued victims sustained no life-threatening injuries, while those requiring further medical attention had been taken to the hospital.

He also praised the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency, the Lagos State Fire and Rescue Service, the police, the military, neighbourhood safety personnel and other emergency responders for their swift response.

“I must commend all our emergency responders who worked tirelessly throughout the night to save lives and bring the situation under control,” he said.

Mr Omotoso urged residents to prioritise safety over economic considerations.

“The most important lesson from this incident is that nobody should prioritise livelihood over life. Once life is lost, everything is lost. No business is worth risking human lives for,” he added.

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Deregistration: Peter Obi’s NDC to Challenge High Court Judgment

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), founded by Mr Seriake Dickson, has reacted to reports claiming that a Federal High Court in Lokoja, Kogi State, has ordered its deregistration by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over an alleged logo infringement.

In a statement on Friday, the political party, which presented Mr Peter Obi as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general elections, said it had instructed its lawyers to challenge the judgment said to have been delivered by Justice Isah Dashen.

“Our attention ​has been drawn to a ruling by the Federal High Court sitting in Lokoja this morning, wherein His Lordship, Honourable Justice Isah Dashen, gave a ruling on an application filed by an unregistered association known as Peace Movement Party.

“The public knows that by December 2025, the Nigeria Democratic Congress, as an association, complained of INEC’s refusal to register us as a political party, whereupon we proceeded to the Federal High Court. The Federal High Court upheld our constitutional right to freedom of association under the Constitution and compelled INEC to register us, which INEC did.

“Since then, we have started political activities, embarked on the registration of members, held congresses from ward to national levels, held conventions, and concluded primaries to all offices following INEC’s timetable. We have been fully participating in all INEC activities without let or hindrance.

“NDC also fielded candidates, and fully participated in the just-concluded bye elections in Nasarawa and Enugu states.

“Candidates for the House of Assembly, House of Representatives, Senate, Governorship, Presidential, and Vice-Presidential positions have been duly nominated, and we are in the process of formally submitting them to INEC in accordance with INEC’s timetable.

“The association that filed the complaint is unknown to us. The Peace Movement Party (PMP) is not a registered political party in Nigeria. They claimed, in a motion (not even a substantive suit or appeal), that the court should set aside its earlier judgment on the purported ground that, in 2015, they had sought registration as a political party with the victory sign as their symbol and were denied.

“It is important to note that they are not an association applying for registration now under the exercise that started last year. They are also not a registered political party in Nigeria participating in the political process now, as we are.

“Furthermore, the court, having delivered a final judgment in our suit against INEC, had become functus officio. The court had also dealt with all related issues concerning associations claiming they wanted to use the same symbol and colours. The court, in its judgment, overruled INEC when those issues were raised, and there is no appeal against that judgment.

“Therefore, we are surprised that, on an application by an association claiming that it wanted to register as a political party with the victory sign in 2015—an association that is not a registered political party and is not seeking registration now to participate in the current political process—His Lordship came to the conclusion that they have locus standi, and furthermore, that he has jurisdiction to do what he did.

“Accordingly, we have been informed that His Lordship made an order setting aside the court’s earlier decision of December 2025.

“There was no order directing our deregistration. However, we are dissatisfied with the decision that has been made, and we have instructed our team of lawyers to immediately proceed to the Court of Appeal to challenge the jurisdiction and propriety of His Lordship’s order.

“We assure the general public, and particularly our candidates at all levels, that our party is on course. The NDC has not been deregistered, and we are challenging today’s order at the Court of Appeal as soon as possible. We have no doubt that justice will be done.

“We condemn efforts by those who seek to shrink the democratic space and stifle opposition voices and alternatives. Nigerians have a right to a full range of opinions, ideas, and alternatives, and political platforms and candidates should be allowed to participate in the 2027 general election process, which has already gone midway,” the statement read.

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Makinde Extends Curfew in 10 Local Governments by 24 Hours

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Governor of Oyo State, Mr Seyi Makinde, has approved the extension of the curfew imposed on 10 local government areas bordering the Old Oyo National Park by an additional 24 hours.

The development was announced in a statement issued by the Secretary to the State Government, Mr Musibau Babatunde, and signed by the Special Adviser to the Governor on Media, Mr Suleiman Olanrewaju.

The state government had, on June 23, 2026, imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew from 4:00 pm to 8:00 am on the affected local government areas as part of measures to address the prevailing security situation.

With the extension, the curfew, which was initially scheduled to last 48 hours, will now remain in force until Saturday, June 27, 2026.

The affected local government areas are Oriire, Orelope, Irepo, Saki West, Saki East, Atisbo, Itesiwaju, Iseyin, Olorunsogo and Atiba.

The government urged residents of the affected areas to continue cooperating with security agencies and to comply fully with the directive as efforts continue to safeguard lives and property.

This development follows the abduction of 39 students and seven ⁠teachers in an attack targeting several schools in Nigeria’s southwestern Oyo State in May.

The attack took place in ⁠Ahoro Esinele community in Oriire district, targeting a secondary school and two primary schools, according to officials. With over 40 days in captivity, all rescue efforts have so far not yielded results.

Mass ⁠kidnappings by armed groups have become a serious security challenge in Nigeria in recent years, with criminal gangs exploiting weak security to target travellers, students, and rural communities for cash payments. Schools are often targeted, although such ‌attacks ‌used to be rare in the southwest of the country.

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