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Agusto Seeks Improvement in Nigeria’s Electric Power Production

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Research and credit ratings firm, Agusto & Co. has identified strategies for more improvement in the country’s electric power production.

In a research note shared with Business Post, the agency noted that Nigeria’s electric power consumption per capita of 145KwH falls behind those of select peers, South Africa (4,198) and Ghana (351KwH), as well as the average for lower middle-income countries of 811KwH.

“Following the unbundling and subsequent privatization of the long-standing government-owned monopoly in the power sector, as part of the power sector reform of 2004, honest and objective evaluations of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry’s (‘NESI’) performance in the post-power privatization era have ranged from ‘minimal improvement’ to ‘more of the same’. The entire NESI value chain is fraught with structural impediments, which have continued to impede optimal performance, with operators consistently ‘passing the buck’,” Agusto noted.

Nigeria, according to the World Bank, has the largest energy access deficit in 2021, with 43 per cent (or 85 million Nigerians) of the country’s population without access to grid-connected electricity.

“As of 31 December 2022, the generating segment of the market comprised 29 operational generating plants with a combined installed capacity of 13,014MW and an average operational capacity of 4,523MW – down 29 per cent from 6,371.9MW in 2019.

“There were 12 Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Nigeria in 2022, accounting for 31.2 per cent  of the country’s total power generating capacity, a 300 basis points decline from 2021 – due largely to gas constraints and faulty machinery.”

Agusto & Co. pointed out that on average, and due largely to gas constraints, only five IPPs: Azura-Edo (26 per cent), Odukpani (19 per cent), Okpai (16 per cent), Afam VI (15 per cent), and Rivers IPP (8 per cent) jointly accounted for circa 84 per cent of the power generated from the 12 IPPs in the last four years.

Agusto also explained that lingering gas shortages are proving to be difficult for Africa’s largest economy.

“Gas constraints remain prevalent despite the fact that Nigeria has the world’s ninth-largest proven gas reserves, estimated at 204 trillion cubic feet in 2022. The domestic gas market in Nigeria has been plagued by chronic underinvestment in generating and distribution infrastructure.

“At the same time, under the domestic supply obligation framework within the Gas Master Plan (GMP), all gas companies are required to supply an assigned quota of gas to critical sectors (including electric power) at prices ($2.18mscf) lower than what is obtainable in international markets (average of $7.52mscf in the US market in 2022).”

As a result, “operators of thermal plants struggle to secure viable gas contracts at the approved price.  As at the end of 2022, 25 of the country’s 29 GenCos were gas-powered, underscoring the urgency of finding a long-term solution to gas supply constraints,” the note explained.

The firm noted that the weakest link in the NESI value chain is the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which is still entirely government-owned.

“The national grid has a wheeling capacity of circa 8,100MW, which pales in comparison to the nation’s peak electricity demand of 19,798 MW. This implication is that even with an increase in the generating capacity of the grid-connected IPPs, the TCN is unable to evacuate more than 8,100MW.”

Agusto & Co. noted that the TCN is a critical bottleneck in the supply of electricity and has stalled investment in power generation.

“On the other hand, the TCN continues to blame load rejection by distribution companies, particularly during the rainy season, for the high frequency of grid collapses.”

Agusto & Co. anticipates that the current Nigerian Electricity Grid Maintenance Expansion and Rehabilitation Program (NEGMERP), which aims to expand the country’s grid network through the diligent execution of network expansion projects funded by both the Federal Government and donors, will result in some growth in NESI in the short term.

This is in addition to the Presidential Power Initiative signed with Siemens AG, which is expected to result in an additional 25,000MW of operational capacity from the national grid.

“The completion of such projects will assure prospective power generation companies that the TCN has ample capacity to receive generated electricity. With a more efficient TCN, Nigeria can achieve self-sufficiency in power supply, making electricity exports easier through the West African Power Pool’s (WAPP) future Regional Electricity Market (REM).”

Agusto lauded President Muhammadu Buhari’s signing of the Fifth Alteration Bill No. 33, 2022 (the “Electricity Constitutional Amendment”), which allows Nigeria’s 36 States to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid.

“This has significant implications for the country’s struggling power sector, as it could lead to increased investment in power generation and distribution infrastructure, as well as increased competition among power providers.

“By devolving power to the States, Agusto & Co. believes the bill could also lead to more efficient and effective management of the power sector, as states will have greater control over their power supply. This could lead to more targeted investment in power infrastructure and more responsive management of power supply and demand.”

This is without some limitation as, “the bill also raises concerns about the potential for fragmentation of the power sector, as different states may have different priorities and approaches to power generation and distribution, leading some, to possibly bypass the national grid entirely.

“Furthermore, States deemed to lack a sufficient economic base may be unable to attract investors in their electricity generation, transmission, or distribution, causing them to fall behind other States in terms of electricity supply. This could constrain the business environments in these States, thereby eroding investor confidence, discouraging investment, and limiting economic growth and development.”

Giving its outlook, the firm noted that the NESI is currently in the second stage – the transitional electricity market (TEM) – on its evolutionary path, where the state-owned special purpose vehicle (the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc – ‘NBET’) buys electricity in bulk from the generating companies and independent power producers (IPPs) and resells to the distribution companies (DisCos) under vesting contracts.

As it transitions to the medium-term market, Agusto & Co. expects more IPPs to become operational, which will significantly raise the Industry’s generation capacity over the medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Adelabu’s Sister, Twin Nephews Regain Freedom as Police Kill Kidnappers

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Mrs. Olaide Busayo Adegoke John-Paul

By Dipo Olowookere

The younger sister of the former Minister of Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, Mrs Olaide Busayo Adegoke John-Paul, has been rescued by officials of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF).

The woman was freed from her kidnappers along with her twin sons, Peter and Paul, on Saturday evening.

They were abducted on Wednesday morning while the former employee of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was taking her children to school in Ibadan, Oyo State.

The unfortunate incident reportedly occurred at about 7:30 am on June 3, 2026, throwing residents of the area into panic. The 43-year-old mother was taken from her vehicle by the gunmen and driven away with her 12-year-old twin sons.

This evening, in an operation by security operatives, the victims were rescued, while two of the suspected kidnappers were fatally shot in a gun duel, and two firearms were recovered from the gang.

The police are now combing the area where the rescue operation took place to apprehend some of the fleeing kidnappers, who are believed to have escaped with gunshot wounds.

The news of the rescue of the kidnapped victims has thrown the family of the former Minister into a frenzy.

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FG, Honeywell Explore Sustainable Development Opportunities

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The federal government and the Honeywell Group are strengthening a partnership aimed at achieving sustainable development in Nigeria.

The company on Thursday held a meeting with the Minister of Interior, Mr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, in Abuja. Both parties explored ways to promote economic development, reaffirming the importance of public-private sector cooperation in advancing Nigeria’s development agenda and improving service delivery for citizens.

The Senior Adviser to the Honeywell Group, Mrs Oduwaye Nsidi-Sakiri, reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to supporting national development through constructive engagement and collaboration.

“We commend the remarkable progress that has been made. These achievements are a reflection not only of leadership but also of the dedication and hard work of the entire team within the Ministry,” she said.

She explained that the visit reflected Honeywell Group’s longstanding tradition of maintaining proactive and constructive relationships with government institutions, regulatory agencies, and other key public-sector stakeholders. She further expressed the group’s willingness to explore opportunities for collaboration in support of government initiatives and national development objectives.

Also speaking, Honeywell Group Chief Operating Officer, Mrs Tomi Ayo-Tugbo, commended the Ministry for reforms that are delivering tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians, reiterating the firm’s commitment to supporting the country’s growth and prosperity.

On his part, Mr Tunji-Ojo praised the company for its longstanding contributions to Nigeria’s economy and acknowledged the critical role of the private sector in driving economic growth, creating jobs, and supporting national development.

He further assured the delegation of the Ministry’s readiness to engage with stakeholders and collaborate with responsible corporate organisations in advancing initiatives that promote economic development, innovation, and improved service delivery.

The Minister emphasised that the reforms being implemented across the Ministry and its agencies are designed not only to improve operational efficiency but also to strengthen national security and enhance public confidence in government institutions.

“Our goal is to build institutions that work efficiently for the people. We are committed to creating systems that are transparent, technology-driven, and capable of delivering services in a manner that reflects the aspirations of a modern Nigeria,” he stated.

“The government cannot achieve sustainable development alone. Strong partnerships between the public and private sectors are essential to building a prosperous nation. We value organisations such as Honeywell Group that have consistently invested in Nigeria and contributed to the country’s growth over several decades,” Mr Tunji-Ojo added.

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FG Orders MDAs to Secure Funding Before Awarding Contracts

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has directed that no new public contracts should be awarded without first getting the funds, as part of efforts to improve project delivery across the country.

Director-General of the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP), Mr Adebowale Adedokun, disclosed this on the sidelines of the Inaugural Hosting of The Procurement Evolution in Abuja on Thursday.

Mr Adedokun said President Bola Tinubu had approved measures to raise resources needed to settle outstanding obligations to contractors, describing timely payment as critical to an efficient procurement system.

“Mr President has given a directive on when funds should be raised to address the concerns of contractors who are yet to be paid. With this, procurement processes will be much better because payment is now tied to procurement.

“Meaning that no award will be further issued without resources or funding available. So these are the things that the President has asked us to do.”

The BPP boss said the government was also implementing 23 procurement reforms aimed at improving transparency, efficiency and value for money in public spending.

According to him, committees to drive the reforms will soon be inaugurated by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF).

He said the reforms were designed to ensure that Nigerians benefit directly through improved infrastructure, healthcare, education and better living conditions.

“The president wants Nigerians to feel the effects of this transformation by having good roads, good hospitals, good educational institutions, and a good living wage for all workers.”

The Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr George Akume, said public procurement remained central to the Tinubu administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

Mr Akume noted that ongoing reforms, including proposed amendments to the Public Procurement Act 2007, the Nigeria First Policy, Nigeria e-Marketplace initiative, community-based procurement and affirmative procurement programmes, were intended to strengthen local industries and promote economic inclusion.

The SGF, represented by Mr Abubakar Kana, Permanent Secretary, General Services Office, Office of the SGF, added that the reforms would enhance transparency, simplify procurement processes and leverage technology to improve service delivery and national development.

“As we move forward, our collective responsibility is very clear.

“We must ensure that procurement processes are simplified. without compromising accountability, that technology is fully leveraged to eliminate inefficiencies and that all stakeholders work collaboratively to achieve shared national goals.

“The federal government remains fully committed to supporting the Bureau of Public Procurement in driving these reforms and ensuring that public procurement becomes a catalyst for economic growth, infrastructure development and improved quality of life for all our citizens.”

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