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Agusto Seeks Improvement in Nigeria’s Electric Power Production

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Research and credit ratings firm, Agusto & Co. has identified strategies for more improvement in the country’s electric power production.

In a research note shared with Business Post, the agency noted that Nigeria’s electric power consumption per capita of 145KwH falls behind those of select peers, South Africa (4,198) and Ghana (351KwH), as well as the average for lower middle-income countries of 811KwH.

“Following the unbundling and subsequent privatization of the long-standing government-owned monopoly in the power sector, as part of the power sector reform of 2004, honest and objective evaluations of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry’s (‘NESI’) performance in the post-power privatization era have ranged from ‘minimal improvement’ to ‘more of the same’. The entire NESI value chain is fraught with structural impediments, which have continued to impede optimal performance, with operators consistently ‘passing the buck’,” Agusto noted.

Nigeria, according to the World Bank, has the largest energy access deficit in 2021, with 43 per cent (or 85 million Nigerians) of the country’s population without access to grid-connected electricity.

“As of 31 December 2022, the generating segment of the market comprised 29 operational generating plants with a combined installed capacity of 13,014MW and an average operational capacity of 4,523MW – down 29 per cent from 6,371.9MW in 2019.

“There were 12 Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Nigeria in 2022, accounting for 31.2 per cent  of the country’s total power generating capacity, a 300 basis points decline from 2021 – due largely to gas constraints and faulty machinery.”

Agusto & Co. pointed out that on average, and due largely to gas constraints, only five IPPs: Azura-Edo (26 per cent), Odukpani (19 per cent), Okpai (16 per cent), Afam VI (15 per cent), and Rivers IPP (8 per cent) jointly accounted for circa 84 per cent of the power generated from the 12 IPPs in the last four years.

Agusto also explained that lingering gas shortages are proving to be difficult for Africa’s largest economy.

“Gas constraints remain prevalent despite the fact that Nigeria has the world’s ninth-largest proven gas reserves, estimated at 204 trillion cubic feet in 2022. The domestic gas market in Nigeria has been plagued by chronic underinvestment in generating and distribution infrastructure.

“At the same time, under the domestic supply obligation framework within the Gas Master Plan (GMP), all gas companies are required to supply an assigned quota of gas to critical sectors (including electric power) at prices ($2.18mscf) lower than what is obtainable in international markets (average of $7.52mscf in the US market in 2022).”

As a result, “operators of thermal plants struggle to secure viable gas contracts at the approved price.  As at the end of 2022, 25 of the country’s 29 GenCos were gas-powered, underscoring the urgency of finding a long-term solution to gas supply constraints,” the note explained.

The firm noted that the weakest link in the NESI value chain is the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), which is still entirely government-owned.

“The national grid has a wheeling capacity of circa 8,100MW, which pales in comparison to the nation’s peak electricity demand of 19,798 MW. This implication is that even with an increase in the generating capacity of the grid-connected IPPs, the TCN is unable to evacuate more than 8,100MW.”

Agusto & Co. noted that the TCN is a critical bottleneck in the supply of electricity and has stalled investment in power generation.

“On the other hand, the TCN continues to blame load rejection by distribution companies, particularly during the rainy season, for the high frequency of grid collapses.”

Agusto & Co. anticipates that the current Nigerian Electricity Grid Maintenance Expansion and Rehabilitation Program (NEGMERP), which aims to expand the country’s grid network through the diligent execution of network expansion projects funded by both the Federal Government and donors, will result in some growth in NESI in the short term.

This is in addition to the Presidential Power Initiative signed with Siemens AG, which is expected to result in an additional 25,000MW of operational capacity from the national grid.

“The completion of such projects will assure prospective power generation companies that the TCN has ample capacity to receive generated electricity. With a more efficient TCN, Nigeria can achieve self-sufficiency in power supply, making electricity exports easier through the West African Power Pool’s (WAPP) future Regional Electricity Market (REM).”

Agusto lauded President Muhammadu Buhari’s signing of the Fifth Alteration Bill No. 33, 2022 (the “Electricity Constitutional Amendment”), which allows Nigeria’s 36 States to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity in areas covered by the national grid.

“This has significant implications for the country’s struggling power sector, as it could lead to increased investment in power generation and distribution infrastructure, as well as increased competition among power providers.

“By devolving power to the States, Agusto & Co. believes the bill could also lead to more efficient and effective management of the power sector, as states will have greater control over their power supply. This could lead to more targeted investment in power infrastructure and more responsive management of power supply and demand.”

This is without some limitation as, “the bill also raises concerns about the potential for fragmentation of the power sector, as different states may have different priorities and approaches to power generation and distribution, leading some, to possibly bypass the national grid entirely.

“Furthermore, States deemed to lack a sufficient economic base may be unable to attract investors in their electricity generation, transmission, or distribution, causing them to fall behind other States in terms of electricity supply. This could constrain the business environments in these States, thereby eroding investor confidence, discouraging investment, and limiting economic growth and development.”

Giving its outlook, the firm noted that the NESI is currently in the second stage – the transitional electricity market (TEM) – on its evolutionary path, where the state-owned special purpose vehicle (the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc – ‘NBET’) buys electricity in bulk from the generating companies and independent power producers (IPPs) and resells to the distribution companies (DisCos) under vesting contracts.

As it transitions to the medium-term market, Agusto & Co. expects more IPPs to become operational, which will significantly raise the Industry’s generation capacity over the medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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2027 Lagos Guber: Sanwo-Olu Endorses Deputy Obafemi Hamzat

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has endorsed his deputy, Mr Obafemi Hamzat, as his preferred candidate for the 2027 governorship election, under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Mr Hamzat on Monday declared his intention to run for governor during a closed-door meeting at Lagos House, Marina, attended by members of the State Executive Council, party leaders and members of the Governor’s Advisory Council.

Among those present were former Minister of State for Defence, Mr Musiliu Obanikoro, and former senator, Mr Ganiyu Solomon.

Mr Sanwo-Olu described the endorsement as a consensus decision reached by stakeholders, saying his deputy possesses the experience and competence to lead the state.

“We just received Mr Deputy, who had come with a very powerful delegation of our leaders in the state to inform us of his intention to contest for the seat of the governorship position of the state,” the governor said.

“It was unanimous with all of us to say that Mr Deputy Governor is a man who is fit and well-prepared for this job. He is a man who knows where all the rooms in the house are,” he added.

The governor cited Mr Hamzat’s record in office and their working relationship over the past seven years as reasons for his support, describing him as loyal, committed and prepared for leadership.

“This is a deputy governor that is worth a governor from day one; this is a man that has been built for this job, and we believe that he deserves to be given a chance to go and run this state,” he emphasised.

Mr Sanwo-Olu also linked the political development to President Bola Tinubu’s longstanding influence in Lagos politics.

“We thank our father, our leader, Mr President, who saw the vision… that long run is what is already being manifested here today,” he noted.

He characterised the meeting as a family-style consultation involving party stakeholders and government officials, saying there was broad agreement in support of Mr Hamzat’s aspiration.

“It’s been a very warm family meeting, and at the end of the day, it was unanimous that Mr Deputy Governor is fit, ready, well baked… for this job,” he added.

The endorsement comes more than a year before party primaries are expected. However, political analysts say it suggests early alignment for the ruling party in the commercial capital.

Mr Hamzat is a former Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure in the state and a two-term deputy governor.

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NECA Urges Stakeholders to Strengthen Psychosocial Work Environments for Sustainable Growth

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Employers, policymakers, and other key stakeholders have been urged to intensify efforts toward developing and sustaining healthy psychosocial work environments as a critical pathway to improved productivity, employee well-being, and organisational resilience.

This call was made by the Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) in commemoration of the 2026 World Day for Safety and Health at Work, themed Good Psychosocial Working Environments: A Pathway to Thriving Workers and Strong Organisations.

The Director General of NECA, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, noted that this year’s theme highlights the growing importance of mental and emotional well-being in the workplace and reinforces the need for a more holistic approach to occupational safety and health.

He further stated that while progress has been made in improving workplace practices, there is a need for sustained and collective action to further strengthen psychosocial conditions in line with evolving global standards, including guidance from the International Labour Organisation (ILO).

“Across sectors, there is increasing recognition that workplace wellbeing extends beyond physical safety. A healthy psychosocial work environment where employees feel valued, supported, and able to perform optimally is essential for organisational effectiveness and long-term sustainability,” the DG said.

He emphasised that psychosocial wellbeing is influenced by how work is structured, managed, and experienced, and encouraged stakeholders to adopt intentional strategies that promote positive work environments. These include clear job roles, manageable workloads, supportive leadership, open communication, and policies that promote work-life balance and inclusion.

“Creating healthy psychosocial work environments requires deliberate and continuous effort. Employers, in particular, play a pivotal role by embedding supportive systems and fostering workplace cultures rooted in trust, respect, and fairness,” he added.

Mr Oyerinde also underscored the importance of strengthening institutional frameworks and workplace practices that support employee well-being, including access to counselling services, employee engagement mechanisms, and transparent organisational policies.

He further referenced the NSITF–NECA Safe Workplace Intervention Project (SWIP) as a practical demonstration of NECA’s commitment to advancing workplace safety through proactive and preventive approaches. The initiative, implemented in collaboration with the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), evolved from the Employees’ Compensation Scheme.

“While the Employees’ Compensation Scheme provides support in cases of workplace incidents, NECA continues to emphasise prevention as the most effective approach to workplace safety. This includes expanding the scope of safety initiatives to address psychosocial risks alongside physical hazards,” he stated.

Through SWIP, NECA, and NSITF, the organisations have supported organisations in strengthening occupational safety and health systems, conducted risk assessments, facilitated stakeholder engagement, and recognised organisations demonstrating strong commitment to safety standards.

Looking ahead, NECA urged all stakeholders to integrate psychosocial risk management into existing workplace safety frameworks, ensuring a more comprehensive and sustainable approach to employee well-being.

As part of activities marking this year’s commemoration, NECA will host a Knowledge Sharing Session on April 30, 2026, themed: “From Compliance to Commitment: Building Sustainable Safety Cultures at Work.” The session will provide a platform for stakeholders to share insights, exchange best practices, and reinforce collective commitment to safer and healthier workplaces.

NECA therefore calls on Employers, Government Institutions, and Social Partners to continue working collaboratively to build work environments that not only drive productivity but also support the dignity, well-being, and full potential of every worker.

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Nigeria Targets Housing Gap with Technology-Led China Partnership

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is advancing a partnership with China aimed at accelerating affordable housing delivery and closing Nigeria’s widening housing gap through technology-driven and scalable solutions.

This followed a technical study tour to Guangzhou led by the director general and global liaison of the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, Mr Joseph Tegbe, alongside a delegation from Family Homes Funds Limited, the office stated in a statement on Monday.

According to the agency, the delegation included the managing director, Mr Abdul Mutallab Mukhtar, and the executive director of Operations, Mr Emeka Henry Inegbu.

The engagement focused on unlocking strategic partnerships to integrate modular and prefabricated housing technologies into Nigeria’s construction ecosystem—an approach expected to significantly reduce building costs, shorten delivery timelines, and improve quality at scale.

With Nigeria’s housing deficit estimated in the millions, the federal government is increasingly prioritising industrialised construction methods and international collaboration to drive sustainable housing delivery.

Discussions also explored potential partnerships with leading engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firms to strengthen execution capacity for large-scale social housing projects.

The delegation also engaged prospective financing partners to mobilise long-term capital required to fund affordable housing initiatives and expand access for low- and middle-income earners.

The agency said the meetings were facilitated by Joerno Conceptions Limited and the E-Link Group in China. The engagements were further strengthened through the cooperation of Zou Gang, the executive deputy director of the China-Africa Economic and Trade Enterprises Working Committee, underscoring the depth of institutional collaboration supporting the initiative.

The firm noted that the move signals a shift toward results-oriented bilateral engagement, where technical expertise, capital mobilisation, and policy alignment converge to deliver measurable outcomes.

“By leveraging China’s advanced construction capabilities to meet Nigeria’s urgent housing needs, the partnership is positioned not only to expand access to affordable homes but also to stimulate job creation, strengthen local value chains, and enhance urban resilience,” it said.

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