Economy
MPC Meeting: Considerations and Policy Options

By FSDH Research
Is Expansionary Monetary Policy Appropriate?
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold rates at the current levels when it meets on January 23-24, 2017. Although the inflationary pressure and weak exchange rate justify a rate hike, it may be a difficult policy given the need to implement policies to boost growth in the economy.
The CBN will continue to use the Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage liquidity to achieve the desired goals in the short-term. At its November 2016 meeting, the MPC maintained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 14%, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 basis points and -700 basis points; retained the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 22.50% and 30% respectively.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that economic activity is projected to improve in 2017 especially in emerging market economies. This is contained in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update for January 2017. The IMF projects global growth at 3.4% in 2017, from an estimated growth of 3.16% in 2016. Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.9% in 2017, from 1.6% in 2016, led by growth in the United States (U.S). The IMF projects a growth of 4.5% for the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies from an estimate of 4.1% in 2016, as policy stimulus and improvements in commodity prices aid growth.
The new administration in the U.S. led by Mr. Donald Trump has promised to embark on expansionary fiscal policy to build infrastructure and lower taxes. This policy may drive inflation rate in the U.S beyond the 2% target set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S Federal Reserve (The Fed).
The FOMC may respond by a rate hike faster than earlier anticipated. Consequently, global yields may rise with a possible capital flight from other countries into the U.S. The appropriate monetary mitigant in Nigeria under this situation is a tight monetary policy.
The IMF estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Nigeria in 2016 at 1.5%, but to grow by 0.8% in 2017. The Nigerian economy has been plagued with a number of macroeconomic issues, as well as insecurity in certain parts of the country that are now experiencing some relief. There is still foreign exchange shortages as a result of lower export revenue linked to the drop in oil price and production. There is an improvement in Nigeria’s economic outlook because of the increase in oil output and the impact of the supply cut by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the short-term, a hold decision will be appropriate.
The inflationary pressure still persists in Nigeria, as we expect the January 2017 inflation rate to increase further from the December 2016 figure. The inflation rate increased in December 2016 to 18.55%, from 18.48% in November 2016. The inflation rate in the medium term would be driven by the base effect from previous higher prices, expected good food crop harvest and, possible increase in electricity tariff and pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Given the outlook of inflation rate between now and the next MPC meeting, a rate cut will be counter-productive.
The decision of the OPEC and some non-OPEC countries for coordinated cuts in oil output agreed in
November 2016 has led to a significant boost to oil prices. The average price of Bonny Light was $54.21/b in December 2016, up by 19.27% from $45.45/b in November 2016.
The price of Bonny Light crude oil also increased by 17.44% to US$55.09b as at January 17, 2017 from US$46.91/b on November 22, 2016. The secondary data from the OPEC shows that Nigeria’s oil output decreased by 7.23% to 1.54mbd in December 2016, from 1.66mbd as at November 2016. The ongoing talks in the Niger Delta region and the provision for the amnesty programme in Budget 2017 could restore oil output.
The external reserves increased consistently after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The 30-day moving average external reserves increased by 11.51% from $24.50bn as at November 22, 2016 to $27.32bn as at January 17, 2017. The increase in oil production from September 2016 up till November 2016 boosted the external reserves. The support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) contributed to the external reserves. A rate cut may lead to capital flight. Thus, we expect the MPC to hold rates while it awaits complementary fiscal policy support.
The Naira depreciated at the inter-bank and parallel markets between the last MPC Meeting and January 17, 2017. It recorded a marginal depreciation of 0.08% at the inter-bank market to close at $1/N305.25 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N305 on November 22, 2016. The premium between the inter-bank and parallel markets averaged about N181 after the last MPC meeting in November 2016. The parallel market rate also depreciated by 6.12% to $1/N498.50 on January 17, 2017 from $1/N468 on November 22, 2016. A rate cut may lead to further depreciation in the value of the Naira.
The average yields on the 182-day and 364-day Nigerian Government Treasury Bills (NTBs) increased to 19.17% and 22.98% in December 2016, compared with 19.11% and 22.85% respectively in November 2016.
The 91-day
NTB closed unchanged at 14.50% in December 2016. The yields on the NTBs sold on January 04, 2017 were at 14.51%, 19.17% and 22.98% on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day NTBs, respectively. However, the average yield on the 16% June 2019; 16.39% FGN Bond January 2022 and 10% July 2030 increased to 15.65%, 15.71% and 15.86% in December 2016 from 14.99%, 15.26% and 15.61% in November 2016. They stood at 16.37%, 16.10% and 16.30% as at January 18, 2017. The increase in yields reflects the current rising inflation rate and weak exchange rate.
The monetary aggregates and credits to the private sector grew in the first ten months of the year, and above the target rates for 2016. The growth in credit was mainly from the impact of devaluation of the Naira. The broad money supply (M2) increased by 11.21% to N22.28trn in October 2016, from N20.03trn in December 2015; an annualized growth of 13.45%. The provisional growth benchmark for 2016 is 10.98%.
The narrow money (M1) grew by 16.94% to N10.02trn in October 2016, from the end-December 2015 figure. Net Domestic Credit (NDC) also grew by 23.89% in the same period; an annualized growth of 28.67%. The provisional benchmark growth for 2016 is 17.94%. The credit to government increased by 280.06% during the period.
Similarly, credits to the private sector grew by 23.24% for October 2016, compared with December 2015; an annualized growth of 27.89%. The benchmark growth for 2016 is 13.28%.
Looking at the economic developments in the country and the impact of the external developments on the Nigerian economy, we expect the MPC to hold rates at the current levels. If the peace in the Niger Delta region is maintained, oil output may increase. This will increase exports and inflow of foreign exchange.
The need for the Federal Government Nigeria (FGN) to borrow aggressively may reduce and interest rate and inflation rate may drop. All these may take a couple of months to happen.
Economy
UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.
Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.
Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”
The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.
Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.
“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”
On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.
“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”
Economy
MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).
The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.
With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.
At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.
The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.
“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.
Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.
“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.
Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.
“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.
“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.
Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.
He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.
Economy
NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.
Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.
Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.
The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”
According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”
“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”
Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.
He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.
Mr Oyedele also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.
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