Feature/OPED
CBN’s 303rd MPC Meeting: A Technocratic Victory, an Economic Setback, and a Missed Opportunity on Nigeria’s Real Crisis
By Blaise Udunze
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting arrived at a time of unprecedented tension within the Nigerian economy. The country has not faced a more difficult convergence of challenges for more than a decade in the area of crushing food inflation, unrelenting insecurity, slowing growth, weak purchasing power, a fragile exchange rate, and rapidly eroding business confidence, as these are the current realities.
Yet, against this troubling backdrop, the MPC chose to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 percent, kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at a record-high 45 percent, held the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent, and adjusted the asymmetric corridor, making it more reflective of technocratic cautions than economic realities
With the tense atmosphere, boldness, contextual sensitivity, and human-centric policymaking are required to douse the challenges. Instead, what Nigeria received was another round of technocratic orthodoxy, at a time when orthodoxy has clearly failed.
Why This MPC Meeting Matters More Than Any in Recent Memory
The importance of the 303rd MPC meeting cannot be overstated. It occurred at a time when:
– Nigeria’s food inflation remains structurally high, driven mainly by insecurity, not excess liquidity.
– Banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism have made farming a high-risk activity across the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and increasingly the South, which has created an environment where fear, uncertainty, and instability have become the daily reality for millions of Nigerians.
– Growth has slowed, reflecting a tightening credit environment and collapsing consumer demand, while households spend 70-80 percent of income on food, according to industry surveys.
– Private-sector credit is shrinking, while government borrowing is expanding.
– The naira, though stabilising, remains vulnerable.
Given these realities, the MPC was expected to signal a shift, however modest, toward a more growth-supportive stance. Instead, it doubled down on tight policy.
Many analysts interpret this as a sign that the CBN is more committed to defending the naira and preserving the appearance of stability than responding to the lived experiences of citizens and businesses.
The CBN’s Insecurity Blind Spot: Food Prices Cannot Fall When Farmers Are Running for Their Lives
One of the biggest ironies in Nigeria today is the insistence by some policymakers that food prices are “declining” or that inflation is “moderating,” even as insecurity remains the biggest structural threat to price stability.
This contradiction reveals the central tension of Nigeria’s current economic moment; the macro indicators are improving, but the real economy, especially the food system, is collapsing under insecurity.
Recently, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) issued a stark warning that 35 million Nigerians are projected to face severe food insecurity by the 2026 lean season, which is the highest number ever recorded. Why? Because insurgent attacks are intensifying. Farmers are being killed or kidnapped. Entire communities are paying “harvest taxes” to armed groups.
Today, we witness farmers abandoning thousands of hectares of farmland. Irrigation systems, seeds, and inputs are inaccessible in conflict zones. This creates a vicious cycle as:
– insecurity reduces agricultural production,
– Reduced production pushes food prices up,
– Rising food prices fuel inflation,
– inflation erodes purchasing power,
– poverty deepens,
– insecurity worsens.
Yet the MPC communique did not mention this core driver of inflation in any meaningful way.
Instead, it continued to frame inflation as a monetary problem; something interest rates alone can fix. This is not only analytically flawed; it shows a more dangerous misdiagnosis that will prolong Nigeria’s food crisis.
The Hidden Question: Are Nigeria’s Inflation Numbers Truly Reliable?
A quiet but growing debate is emerging within the financial community about Nigeria’s inflation numbers and macroeconomic figures being massaged.
Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, put it bluntly, “Zero rate cut suggests the CBN MPC may not be totally confident in the NBS recent inflation numbers at 16 percent.”
This suspicion is not unfounded. Considering the recent realities facing the citizens, Nigerians are spending more on food than at any time in the last two generations. Staple prices such as rice, yams, garri, and beans are still high in almost every major market. Transport, rent, fuel, and electricity costs remain on the high side. Businesses report that operating expenses have not declined by any meaningful margin. Yet official inflation fell sharply to 16.05 percent.
It is mathematically difficult for headline inflation to fall significantly when food inflation, which is the most dominant component, continues to rise due to insecurity, logistics disruptions, and energy costs. This mismatch has forced many economists to ask: what exactly is being measured, and is the methodology still credible? For households already on the brink, numbers that suggest “improvement” feel not only inaccurate but insulting.
The Disconnect Between Governance and Lived Experience
This is where Nigeria’s economic narrative collapses, as the statistics may suggest progress, but households feel worse off than ever. This is why growing segments of society describe government optimism as tone-deaf.
A country cannot be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, cannot fuel their generators, cannot pay transport fares, and cannot access credit to expand their businesses.
This disconnect exposes what many call the technocratic illusion, which is overly relying on models, spreadsheets, and monetary tenets in a country where insecurity, not excessive demand, is driving inflation. It reflects a divide between governance and reality, data and hunger, stability and survival.
Tight Monetary Policy: A Victory for Banks, a Defeat for the Real Economy
While the CBN insists that its tight stance is essential for price stability, analysts warn that the costs are becoming unbearable. Dr. Muda Yusuf argues that even a small rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points would have signaled a commitment to growth. Instead:
– Lending rates remain between 33 percent and 45 percent, suffocating SMEs.
– Credit to the private sector fell from N75.9 trillion to N72.5 trillion in just one month.
– Government borrowing is rising, crowding out real-sector lending.
– Manufacturers have cut production, citing financing conditions.
– Job creation is slowing, especially in youth-led sectors.
Banks, meanwhile, are reporting stronger margins and higher interest income. The question is no longer whether tight policy fights inflation. The question is whether Nigeria’s economy can survive its side effects.
The Naira: Stability Built on Fragile Foundations
The CBN’s main justification for maintaining the high MPR is to attract foreign portfolio investment (FPI), support the naira, and avoid destabilizing capital outflows. But this stability is fragile. FPIs are temporary “hot money.” They disappear at the slightest global shock.
Nigeria has suffered the consequences of relying on this route in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022. A sustainable naira requires:
– More domestic production
– Higher exports
– Better security
– Improved energy supply
– and a functional agricultural sector.
None of these received priority mention in the MPC deliberations.
The Real Test of Reform Is in People’s Lives, Not in Abuja’s Spreadsheets
Nigeria’s macroeconomic gains are being celebrated abroad. But hunger, joblessness, and despair are expanding at home. This is the irony of the current moment:
– Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising.
– FX reserves are improving, yet insecurity is deepening.
– Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create is invisible.
– Reforms have stabilised numbers, but not people.
The World Bank’s October 2025 report warned that Nigeria’s progress means nothing if human welfare remains in decline. The success of reforms must now be measured not by GDP or FX reserves, but by how many Nigerians can afford to eat, work, and live with dignity.
A Missed Opportunity, Again
The 303rd MPC meeting should have been a turning point, a recognition that Nigeria’s inflation crisis is rooted in insecurity and supply shocks, not excess liquidity. Instead, the committee delivered technical caution, policy defensiveness, and an over-reliance on interest rate orthodoxy.
Nigeria needs a monetary policy that understands where the real crisis lies, in the abandoned farmlands, the unsafe highways, the displaced farming communities, and the markets where food prices rise weekly.
Without confronting this, Nigeria will continue to win macroeconomic battles while losing the war for human survival.
The Path Nigeria Must Chart to End Insecurity, Food Inflation, and Economic Stagnation
Nigeria’s 303rd MPC meeting made one thing clear that the country cannot escape its economic turmoil through monetary tightening alone. Interest rates cannot secure farms, rebuild supply chains, or put food on the table. What Nigeria needs now is a decisive, coordinated strategy that goes beyond the narrow lens of inflation targeting.
– First, security must become the cornerstone of price stability.
Food inflation will not recede until farmers can return to their lands without fear. A National Agro-Security Task Force merging military units, agro-rangers, police, intelligence agencies, and vetted community guards must secure farmlands and food corridors. Without safety in the agricultural belt, every other policy becomes cosmetic.
– Second, the CBN must adopt a dual mandate: price stability and growth.
Nigeria’s rigid monetary stance is suppressing credit, killing jobs, and suffocating production. Lowering the CRR to a realistic 25-30 percent and providing targeted single-digit loans to SMEs and manufacturers is essential for economic revival. Monetary policy must support growth, not stifle it.
– Third, Nigeria must rebuild trust in its economic data.
Doubts about inflation figures erode confidence. Modernizing NBS data-collection methods through digital analytics, satellite tools, and transparent audits is crucial. No country can chart a path out of crisis with unreliable statistics.
– Fourth, structural reforms must address cost-push inflation at its root.
Nigeria’s inflation is driven by high production costs despite poor roads, expensive power, weak logistics, and inefficient transport systems. Repairing agricultural roads, expanding rail freight, investing in cold-chain infrastructure, and boosting industrial power supply will reduce costs and unlock productivity.
– Fifth, the country must build an export-driven economy.
Stable exchange rates come from production, not high interest rates. Tax incentives for exporters, fully functional Special Economic Zones, and improvements in customs efficiency will help Nigeria attract stable capital and grow non-oil exports.
– Sixth, social protection must expand to shield vulnerable households.
Targeted food vouchers, transport subsidies, and school feeding programs are necessary to cushion families from economic shocks. Reform without social protection is a recipe for social unrest.
– Finally, Nigeria needs a whole-of-government Economic War Room.
Security agencies, economic ministries, the CBN, the NBS, and the private sector must collaborate in real time to track inflation drivers, coordinate responses, and prevent policy contradictions. Economic management must become proactive, not reactive.
Stability Must Translate to Human Welfare
The 303rd MPC meeting signaled caution, but what Nigeria needs is direction. It needs clarity, boldness, and policies rooted in the lived realities of millions. Monetary tightening has achieved what it can; the next phase requires confronting insecurity, energizing production, restoring data credibility, and building a growth-driven economy.
Nigeria cannot tighten its way out of this crisis. It must reform, secure, produce, and most importantly, protect its people. If not, the nation will continue to win statistical battles while losing the war for human survival.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: bl***********@***il.com
Feature/OPED
The Role of TV in Preserving African Stories and Identity
Scroll through social media today, and you will notice something interesting: everyone is either reacting to a series, quoting a movie line, or debating a character as though they personally know them. Beneath the memes and binge-watch culture, however, lies something deeper. Television remains one of the most powerful tools shaping how Africans see themselves, remember their history, and tell their own stories. In a continent as diverse and expressive as Africa, that matters more than ever.
TV as a Cultural Archive, Not Just Entertainment
Long before streaming algorithms began shaping our viewing habits, television was already preserving African identity. From Nollywood dramas that capture the rhythm of everyday Lagos life to documentaries exploring Maasai traditions and Ghanaian folklore, TV has served as a living archive of the continent’s stories.
It preserves more than entertainment; it preserves language, culture, humour, values, and shared experiences. Unlike fleeting social media content, television allows stories to unfold with depth, exploring the realities of family, tradition, ambition, and modern African life without reducing them to stereotypes. That is the power of TV: preserving not just stories, but perspective.
Why Representation on TV Still Matters
There is a subtle but important truth: if people do not see themselves on screen, they may begin to believe their stories are not worth telling. This is why African TV content is more than entertainment; it is affirmation.
Seeing a character who speaks like you, struggles like you, or celebrates like your community does something powerful. It validates identity and challenges outdated narratives that have historically defined Africa through external lenses.
This is where MultiChoice Group, through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, plays an important role. They do not simply broadcast content; they help distribute cultural memory at scale.
GOtv, DStv, and the Everyday African Viewer
Think about a typical evening in many African homes: the TV is on in the background, someone is laughing at a comedy show, another person is watching a local series, and someone else is catching up on the news. That shared viewing experience remains very real.
Through platforms such as DStv and GOtv, African households are exposed to a blend of local storytelling and global content. More importantly, they have helped amplify African-produced content by bringing Nollywood films, African reality shows, talk shows, and documentaries into mainstream rotation.
It is not just about access. It is about visibility.
A young filmmaker in Lagos today is more likely to believe their story matters because they have seen similar stories broadcast widely. A child in Accra grows up hearing familiar accents and seeing environments that look like their own on screen, not as exceptions, but as the norm.
TV Is Also Shaping Modern African Identity
African identity is not static; it is evolving. Television reflects that evolution in real time.
Today, audiences see:
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Young Africans balancing tradition and modern dating culture
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Stories tackling mental health in African households
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Fashion and music influences spreading through TV series
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Political satire shaping public conversation
Conversations that were once confined to homes are now being explored on screen, giving audiences the language to discuss issues that were previously unspoken.
In many ways, television is doing what oral tradition has always done: passing stories, values, humour, warnings, and history from one generation to the next. The difference is that today’s griots are writers, directors, and broadcasters.
The Future: From Watching to Owning Our Narratives
The next stage of African storytelling is not just about being seen; it is about ownership.
As more African creators produce content and platforms continue to invest in regional storytelling, television becomes more than a mirror. It becomes a tool for shaping how Africa is represented to itself and to the world.
While streaming continues to grow, television, particularly accessible platforms such as GOtv, remains one of the most effective ways to reach everyday audiences across different income levels and regions. After all, storytelling only matters if people can access it.
African stories are not new. They have always existed in families, on streets, in markets, in history books, and through oral traditions. What television has done, and continues to do, is give those stories a stage wide enough for millions to experience them at once.
The next time you watch a local series or documentary on DStv or GOtv, remember that you are not just being entertained. You are participating in the preservation of African identity itself.
Feature/OPED
The Future of AI in Nigerian SMEs: Overcoming Barriers to Implementation
By Kehinde Ogundare
Ask a tech entrepreneur in San Francisco what AI means for their business, and they are likely to talk about competitive advantage, product differentiation, and scale. Ask a small business owner in Kano or Onitsha the same question, and the conversation shifts entirely.
For many Nigerian SMEs, the priority is keeping the lights on, managing costs, and finding sustainable ways to grow in a challenging economic environment. This difference in perspective explains why the global AI conversation, often shaped by assumptions about stable infrastructure, deep capital, and abundant technical talent, frequently fails to address the realities facing Nigerian SMEs.
This matters because Nigerian SMEs are not a peripheral concern. In 2024 alone, MSMEs contributed 46.32% to Nigeria’s GDP, accounting for 96.9% of businesses and 87.9% of employment. These businesses are the backbone of the Nigerian economy, and if AI is going to mean anything for Nigeria’s development, it has to work for them in the daily conditions they actually operate in.
However, research drawing on empirical data from 144 Nigerian SMEs found that inadequate infrastructure, low digital literacy, skills shortages, and regulatory gaps are collectively preventing them from meaningfully engaging with AI. Awareness of AI is high and growing. What is missing is a clear and honest conversation about what adoption actually requires in this specific context. The barriers are real, but none of them are insurmountable. The question is whether the tools, pricing models, and support structures being offered to Nigerian SMEs are designed with those barriers in mind, or whether they have been built for another market entirely.
Subscription models making AI affordable for small businesses
When most small business owners hear “AI,” they imagine expensive software, specialist consultants, and a hefty upfront bill.
That assumption is not entirely wrong, but it describes a particular way of buying technology, not AI itself. The shift that makes AI genuinely accessible at the SME level is the move away from large, one-time capital purchases towards tools that charge a predictable monthly subscription. Businesses can pay for what they use, scale back when necessary, and avoid the debt that a major technology investment can create.
The deeper opportunity here is consolidation. Many SMEs are already spending money across multiple disconnected tools—one for invoicing, another for customer records, another for stock tracking—none of which talk to each other. An integrated platform that handles several of these functions together, with AI built in, can actually cost less than the sum of those separate subscriptions while giving business owners a clearer picture of their operations.
With margins already under pressure, any technology a business adopts needs to visibly show an increase in productivity or bottom line. Subscription-based, integrated platforms, priced transparently and honestly, are the model that best fits this reality.
Infrastructure challenges demand a mobile-first approach
No conversation about technology in Nigeria is complete without confronting the infrastructure problem, and AI is no exception. Nigeria continues to face major infrastructure barriers, including limited broadband access, unreliable power supply, and high data costs, all of which constrain deeper AI adoption. These are structural features of the operating environment that any sensible technology strategy must account for today.
The electricity situation alone is significant. The World Bank estimates that the lack of stable electricity costs Nigeria’s economy approximately $26.2 billion annually, equivalent to about 2% of GDP, forcing many businesses to run on expensive diesel generators. That cost ripples outward.
In practical terms, AI tools built for Nigeria cannot assume a stable broadband connection or a computer that is always powered on. The tools that will actually get used are the ones that work on a smartphone, consume minimal data, and can function offline when connectivity drops, syncing back up when it returns. The mobile phone is already how many Nigerian SME owners run their businesses. AI that meets them there, rather than demanding infrastructure they do not have, is AI that has a genuine future in this market.
The direction is clear: build capability from within, using tools that make that possible. Recent AI performance research reveals that 64% of African workers are already actively using AI at work, signalling massive grassroots readiness and driving forward-thinking organisations across Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa to aggressively prioritise internal upskilling frameworks to bridge the talent gap.
As the policy groundwork is being laid, the commercial ecosystem is beginning to respond. What remains is a clear-eyed acceptance that AI tools built for this market need to look different from those built for markets with different realities. Low cost, low bandwidth, and usability for non-technical people are not modest ambitions; they are the actual requirements. Build for those realities, and AI has a real future in Nigeria’s SME economy.
Feature/OPED
When Leaders THRIVE: Yetunde B. Oni’s Candid Counsel to Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy
Union Bank’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer sat with 30 of Nigeria’s most promising young leaders for a frank conversation on character, relationships and the discipline of growth.
Out of 25,000 applicants, only 30 earned a place. That single figure tells you how rare the room was when Yetunde B. Oni, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Union Bank of Nigeria, recently sat down with a cohort of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy.
The Academy, a Lagos State Government initiative established in honour of Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande, the state’s first civilian governor, exists to raise a generation of ethical and capable young leaders. Its fellows are drawn from across professions, sectors and ethnicities, and shaped through a fellowship facilitated by the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa (ALI WA), whose work on values and principled leadership has become a quiet engine behind some of the country’s most thoughtful emerging talent.
It was into this gathering that Mrs Oni brought not a corporate address, but a conversation. Honest, personal and at times disarming, she spoke about the philosophies that have carried her through a career spanning more than three decades, the setbacks she has had to surmount, and the values that opened doors she never expected to walk through.
She gave them a framework to hold on to. She called it THRIVE.
The six principles
T — Take ownership of your relationships. Leadership, she argued, begins with the deliberate stewardship of the people around you. Relationships are not incidental to a career. They are infrastructure.
H — Honour God. She spoke openly about faith as a steadying force, an anchor that keeps ambition tethered to something larger than the self.
R — Recharge and refresh. Mental and physical health, she insisted, are not luxuries to be deferred until the work is done. Leaders who neglect their well-being eventually have less to give.
I — Invest in your growth. Continuous and heavy investment in personal development is, in her telling, the price of staying relevant. The learning never ends.
V — Value your work. She pressed the fellows on identity and brand. What do you stand for? Do you create value? Who, in truth, are you? The questions were not rhetorical.
E — Embrace setbacks. Failure, she said, is not the opposite of progress but a part of it. The leaders who endure are the ones who learn to metabolise disappointment rather than be defeated by it.
The people behind the leader
If one theme threaded the entire conversation, it was relationships. Mrs Oni was candid that she did not arrive at the top of Nigerian banking alone. She credited the steady support of family, her parents and her husband, alongside the mentors, friends, coaches and sponsors who shaped her at different stages.
She drew a sharp and useful distinction between a mentor and a coach, two roles often conflated and rarely understood, and she traced much of her progress back to a foundation of Nigerian cultural values: hard work, honesty and integrity, courtesy and respect. These, she told the fellows, are not relics. They are the very qualities that have earned her trust and opened doors throughout her journey.
“You need people,” was the message, delivered without sentiment. Relationships, she explained, must be managed and nurtured with the same seriousness one brings to any other discipline. Time must be managed with equal care.
On believing, and risking
Perhaps the most resonant moment came when Mrs Oni spoke about self-belief. She admitted that becoming the MD/CEO of Standard Chartered Bank, Sierra Leone, did not cross her mind – not because she was unqualified, but because she didn’t think she would get it. Encouraged by her husband, she applied anyway, and she got it!
That appointment would later see her make history as the first woman to lead a Standard Chartered Bank operation in her market.
The Union Bank of Nigeria appointment told a similar story. She had not even known the position existed after the CBN’s intervention. It came to her through relationships; through the quiet networks of people who knew her work and recommended her name while she was unaware in faraway Sierra Leone.
The lesson she left with the fellows was unambiguous. Believe in yourself. Take the risk. Put in for the thing you are not yet certain you deserve, because the opportunity you are waiting for may be one you cannot see, reaching you through someone you have not yet met.
Why this matters
Engagements of this kind are easy to underestimate. They produce no headlines about balance sheets and no immediate line on a financial statement. Yet they speak to something Union Bank has long understood: that institutions endure when they invest in people, and that leadership is built one honest conversation at a time.
Credit is due to the Africa Leadership Initiative, West Africa, whose facilitation of the Lateef Jakande Leadership Academy continues to shape young Nigerians of real promise, and to the Academy itself for the rigour of a process that turned 25,000 hopefuls into 30 fellows ready to lead.
For Yetunde B. Oni, the afternoon was less about what she had achieved than about what she was willing to give: her time, her story and her counsel, offered freely to those coming after her. It is, in the end, what the best leaders do. They light the path for the next generation, and they THRIVE.
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