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CBN’s 303rd MPC Meeting: A Technocratic Victory, an Economic Setback, and a Missed Opportunity on Nigeria’s Real Crisis

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CBN 303rd MPC Meeting

By Blaise Udunze

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting arrived at a time of unprecedented tension within the Nigerian economy. The country has not faced a more difficult convergence of challenges for more than a decade in the area of crushing food inflation, unrelenting insecurity, slowing growth, weak purchasing power, a fragile exchange rate, and rapidly eroding business confidence, as these are the current realities.

Yet, against this troubling backdrop, the MPC chose to retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27 percent, kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at a record-high 45 percent, held the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent, and adjusted the asymmetric corridor, making it more reflective of technocratic cautions than economic realities

With the tense atmosphere, boldness, contextual sensitivity, and human-centric policymaking are required to douse the challenges. Instead, what Nigeria received was another round of technocratic orthodoxy, at a time when orthodoxy has clearly failed.

Why This MPC Meeting Matters More Than Any in Recent Memory

The importance of the 303rd MPC meeting cannot be overstated. It occurred at a time when:

–       Nigeria’s food inflation remains structurally high, driven mainly by insecurity, not excess liquidity.

–       Banditry, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping, and terrorism have made farming a high-risk activity across the North-East, North-West, North-Central, and increasingly the South, which has created an environment where fear, uncertainty, and instability have become the daily reality for millions of Nigerians.

–       Growth has slowed, reflecting a tightening credit environment and collapsing consumer demand, while households spend 70-80 percent of income on food, according to industry surveys.

–       Private-sector credit is shrinking, while government borrowing is expanding.

–       The naira, though stabilising, remains vulnerable.

Given these realities, the MPC was expected to signal a shift, however modest, toward a more growth-supportive stance. Instead, it doubled down on tight policy.

Many analysts interpret this as a sign that the CBN is more committed to defending the naira and preserving the appearance of stability than responding to the lived experiences of citizens and businesses.

The CBN’s Insecurity Blind Spot: Food Prices Cannot Fall When Farmers Are Running for Their Lives

One of the biggest ironies in Nigeria today is the insistence by some policymakers that food prices are “declining” or that inflation is “moderating,” even as insecurity remains the biggest structural threat to price stability.

This contradiction reveals the central tension of Nigeria’s current economic moment; the macro indicators are improving, but the real economy, especially the food system, is collapsing under insecurity.

Recently, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) issued a stark warning that 35 million Nigerians are projected to face severe food insecurity by the 2026 lean season, which is the highest number ever recorded. Why? Because insurgent attacks are intensifying. Farmers are being killed or kidnapped. Entire communities are paying “harvest taxes” to armed groups.

Today, we witness farmers abandoning thousands of hectares of farmland. Irrigation systems, seeds, and inputs are inaccessible in conflict zones. This creates a vicious cycle as:

–       insecurity reduces agricultural production,

–       Reduced production pushes food prices up,

–       Rising food prices fuel inflation,

–       inflation erodes purchasing power,

–       poverty deepens,

–       insecurity worsens.

Yet the MPC communique did not mention this core driver of inflation in any meaningful way.

Instead, it continued to frame inflation as a monetary problem; something interest rates alone can fix. This is not only analytically flawed; it shows a more dangerous misdiagnosis that will prolong Nigeria’s food crisis.

The Hidden Question: Are Nigeria’s Inflation Numbers Truly Reliable?

A quiet but growing debate is emerging within the financial community about Nigeria’s inflation numbers and macroeconomic figures being massaged.

Dr. Tilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory, put it bluntly, “Zero rate cut suggests the CBN MPC may not be totally confident in the NBS recent inflation numbers at 16 percent.”

This suspicion is not unfounded. Considering the recent realities facing the citizens, Nigerians are spending more on food than at any time in the last two generations. Staple prices such as rice, yams, garri, and beans are still high in almost every major market. Transport, rent, fuel, and electricity costs remain on the high side. Businesses report that operating expenses have not declined by any meaningful margin. Yet official inflation fell sharply to 16.05 percent.

It is mathematically difficult for headline inflation to fall significantly when food inflation, which is the most dominant component, continues to rise due to insecurity, logistics disruptions, and energy costs. This mismatch has forced many economists to ask: what exactly is being measured, and is the methodology still credible? For households already on the brink, numbers that suggest “improvement” feel not only inaccurate but insulting.

The Disconnect Between Governance and Lived Experience

This is where Nigeria’s economic narrative collapses, as the statistics may suggest progress, but households feel worse off than ever. This is why growing segments of society describe government optimism as tone-deaf.

A country cannot be “on the right path” when its citizens cannot afford rice, cannot fuel their generators, cannot pay transport fares, and cannot access credit to expand their businesses.

This disconnect exposes what many call the technocratic illusion, which is overly relying on models, spreadsheets, and monetary tenets in a country where insecurity, not excessive demand, is driving inflation. It reflects a divide between governance and reality, data and hunger, stability and survival.

Tight Monetary Policy: A Victory for Banks, a Defeat for the Real Economy

While the CBN insists that its tight stance is essential for price stability, analysts warn that the costs are becoming unbearable. Dr. Muda Yusuf argues that even a small rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points would have signaled a commitment to growth. Instead:

–       Lending rates remain between 33 percent and 45 percent, suffocating SMEs.

–       Credit to the private sector fell from N75.9 trillion to N72.5 trillion in just one month.

–       Government borrowing is rising, crowding out real-sector lending.

–       Manufacturers have cut production, citing financing conditions.

–       Job creation is slowing, especially in youth-led sectors.

Banks, meanwhile, are reporting stronger margins and higher interest income. The question is no longer whether tight policy fights inflation. The question is whether Nigeria’s economy can survive its side effects.

The Naira: Stability Built on Fragile Foundations

The CBN’s main justification for maintaining the high MPR is to attract foreign portfolio investment (FPI), support the naira, and avoid destabilizing capital outflows. But this stability is fragile. FPIs are temporary “hot money.” They disappear at the slightest global shock.

Nigeria has suffered the consequences of relying on this route in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022. A sustainable naira requires:

–       More domestic production

–       Higher exports

–       Better security

–       Improved energy supply

–       and a functional agricultural sector.

None of these received priority mention in the MPC deliberations.

The Real Test of Reform Is in People’s Lives, Not in Abuja’s Spreadsheets

Nigeria’s macroeconomic gains are being celebrated abroad. But hunger, joblessness, and despair are expanding at home. This is the irony of the current moment:

–       Inflation is easing, yet hunger is rising.

–       FX reserves are improving, yet insecurity is deepening.

–       Subsidies are gone, yet the fiscal space they were meant to create is invisible.

–       Reforms have stabilised numbers, but not people.

The World Bank’s October 2025 report warned that Nigeria’s progress means nothing if human welfare remains in decline. The success of reforms must now be measured not by GDP or FX reserves, but by how many Nigerians can afford to eat, work, and live with dignity.

A Missed Opportunity, Again

The 303rd MPC meeting should have been a turning point, a recognition that Nigeria’s inflation crisis is rooted in insecurity and supply shocks, not excess liquidity. Instead, the committee delivered technical caution, policy defensiveness, and an over-reliance on interest rate orthodoxy.

Nigeria needs a monetary policy that understands where the real crisis lies, in the abandoned farmlands, the unsafe highways, the displaced farming communities, and the markets where food prices rise weekly.

Without confronting this, Nigeria will continue to win macroeconomic battles while losing the war for human survival.

The Path Nigeria Must Chart to End Insecurity, Food Inflation, and Economic Stagnation

Nigeria’s 303rd MPC meeting made one thing clear that the country cannot escape its economic turmoil through monetary tightening alone. Interest rates cannot secure farms, rebuild supply chains, or put food on the table. What Nigeria needs now is a decisive, coordinated strategy that goes beyond the narrow lens of inflation targeting.

–       First, security must become the cornerstone of price stability.

Food inflation will not recede until farmers can return to their lands without fear. A National Agro-Security Task Force merging military units, agro-rangers, police, intelligence agencies, and vetted community guards must secure farmlands and food corridors. Without safety in the agricultural belt, every other policy becomes cosmetic.

–       Second, the CBN must adopt a dual mandate: price stability and growth.

Nigeria’s rigid monetary stance is suppressing credit, killing jobs, and suffocating production. Lowering the CRR to a realistic 25-30 percent and providing targeted single-digit loans to SMEs and manufacturers is essential for economic revival. Monetary policy must support growth, not stifle it.

–       Third, Nigeria must rebuild trust in its economic data.

Doubts about inflation figures erode confidence. Modernizing NBS data-collection methods through digital analytics, satellite tools, and transparent audits is crucial. No country can chart a path out of crisis with unreliable statistics.

–       Fourth, structural reforms must address cost-push inflation at its root.

Nigeria’s inflation is driven by high production costs despite poor roads, expensive power, weak logistics, and inefficient transport systems. Repairing agricultural roads, expanding rail freight, investing in cold-chain infrastructure, and boosting industrial power supply will reduce costs and unlock productivity.

–       Fifth, the country must build an export-driven economy.

Stable exchange rates come from production, not high interest rates. Tax incentives for exporters, fully functional Special Economic Zones, and improvements in customs efficiency will help Nigeria attract stable capital and grow non-oil exports.

–       Sixth, social protection must expand to shield vulnerable households.

Targeted food vouchers, transport subsidies, and school feeding programs are necessary to cushion families from economic shocks. Reform without social protection is a recipe for social unrest.

–       Finally, Nigeria needs a whole-of-government Economic War Room.

Security agencies, economic ministries, the CBN, the NBS, and the private sector must collaborate in real time to track inflation drivers, coordinate responses, and prevent policy contradictions. Economic management must become proactive, not reactive.

Stability Must Translate to Human Welfare

The 303rd MPC meeting signaled caution, but what Nigeria needs is direction. It needs clarity, boldness, and policies rooted in the lived realities of millions. Monetary tightening has achieved what it can; the next phase requires confronting insecurity, energizing production, restoring data credibility, and building a growth-driven economy.

Nigeria cannot tighten its way out of this crisis. It must reform, secure, produce, and most importantly, protect its people. If not, the nation will continue to win statistical battles while losing the war for human survival.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

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Trapped Between Nigeria’s Failure and South Africa’s Xenophobic Violence

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Xenophobic pix

By Blaise Udunze

When the word “xenophobic” is talked about, most affected African countries tend to focus on the pains being experienced by their citizens in South Africa. For a moment, it calls for Nigeria and the rest of the African continent to pause and ask, how did we get here?

The recent happenings across the streets of Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Durban, a painful pattern continues to unfold with frightening and fearful regularity, as Nigerian-owned businesses are looted, migrants hunted, families displaced, and African nationals reduced to targets of rage. If asked, the majority would chorus that the recurring images of xenophobic violence in South Africa are disturbing enough, and no doubt, yes, but the deeper tragedy is beyond the flames and bloodshed. It lies in the silent failures back home that forced many Nigerians into vulnerable exile in the first place.

The reality, as a matter of fact, is that to understand the suffering of Nigerians in South Africa, one must first confront the uncomfortable truth that xenophobia is not merely a South African problem. It is also a Nigerian governance problem exported abroad.

Nigeria, often celebrated as the “Giant of Africa,” has now become the “Mama Africa” who has failed to nurture her many children, with the fact that behind every Nigerian fleeing hardship for survival, known as the “japa” syndrome, in another African country is a story shaped by economic frustration, failed institutions, poor leadership, unemployment, and a financial system disconnected from the realities of ordinary citizens.

One apt way to confirm these inimical factors, the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, recently acknowledged this uncomfortable reality when he urged African leaders to address the domestic failures driving mass migration across the continent. Speaking amid renewed anti-foreigner tensions, Ramaphosa identified “misgovernance” as one of the factors forcing Africans to seek refuge in countries like South Africa. Of a truth, his comments may have generated debate, and some “patriotic Nigerians” may also want to prove him wrong, but they reflected a painful reality many African governments would rather avoid.

Nigeria, despite its vast human and natural resources, has increasingly become a country where millions no longer see a future at home. This is a critical irony and the height of it all because a nation blessed with oil wealth and entrepreneurial energy and one of the youngest populations in the world is yet burdened by systemic corruption, policy inconsistency, infrastructural collapse, and a leadership class that has often prioritised politics over productivity, especially with the imminence of an election.

It is so detestable and at the same time fearful that the result is a generation of young Nigerians trapped between hopelessness and migration.

One regrettable experience that has continued to haunt the country for decades is that successive governments have squandered opportunities that could have transformed Nigeria into an industrial and economic powerhouse. Public resources that should have been invested in power, roads, healthcare, manufacturing, education and enterprise development have either disappeared into private pockets or become trapped in wasteful bureaucratic structures.

Reports indicating that over $214 billion in public funds may have been lost, diverted, or trapped in opaque fiscal systems over the last decade capture the scale of Nigeria’s accountability crisis. Whether exact or conservative, such figures reveal a country losing resources or funds rapidly from severe bleeding that could have changed millions of lives.

Looking intently at these developments, one would know that the tragedy is not merely corruption itself but the opportunities corruption destroyed.

Come to think of this fact that with proper governance and strategic economic planning, Nigeria could have developed a thriving SME ecosystem capable of employing millions of citizens. Instead, unemployment and underemployment have become defining realities of national life. The World Economic Forum recently identified unemployment and lack of economic opportunity as Nigeria’s greatest economic threat, yet the country continues to struggle with coherent employment data and long-term economic direction.

This economic suffocation explains why migration has become less of a choice and more of a survival strategy for many Nigerians.

At the centre of this crisis is another troubling contradiction, which is that Nigeria’s banking sector appears increasingly profitable while the real economy continues to deteriorate.

Ordinarily, banks in developing economies are expected to function as engines of growth by financing productive sectors, supporting innovation, and empowering small businesses. Across the world, SMEs are recognised as the backbone of grassroots economic development, and the tangible result is that they create jobs, stimulate local production, and expand economic participation.

In Nigeria, SMEs account for over 70 per cent of registered businesses, contribute nearly half of the country’s GDP and generate between 84 and 90 per cent of employment. Yet, despite their enormous economic importance, SMEs receive barely between 0.5 per cent and one per cent of total commercial bank lending.

This is not just a policy failure; it is an economic tragedy. Rather than financing entrepreneurs and productive enterprises, Nigerian banks have increasingly found comfort in investing heavily in government treasury securities. In 2025 alone, major Nigerian banks reportedly generated N6.68 trillion from total investment securities and treasury bills, benefiting from high-yield government debt instruments instead of supporting businesses capable of creating jobs.

The banking sector’s recapitalisation exercise, which successfully raised N4.56 trillion, was celebrated as a regulatory achievement. But the critical question remains. The recapitalisation is for what purpose?

If stronger banks continue to avoid the productive economy while SMEs remain starved of affordable credit, recapitalisation merely strengthens financial institutions without strengthening national development.

Today, private sector credit in Nigeria remains significantly low compared to many African economies. High interest rates, excessive collateral demands, weak credit infrastructure and risk-averse banking practices have created an environment where small businesses struggle to survive, and these implications are devastating.

Every denied SME loan is a denied employment opportunity. Every failed business is another frustrated entrepreneur. Every frustrated entrepreneur is another Nigerian considering migration.

This is how economic dysfunction transforms into human displacement. In a situation like this, it is noteworthy to state that South Africa naturally becomes an attractive destination because of its relatively advanced infrastructure and larger economy. Today, this has informed Nigerians and other African countries alike to migrate there, not because they hate their country but because they are searching for dignity through work and enterprise.

Yet, in a cruel twist, many become targets of xenophobic violence. Foreign nationals are accused of “taking jobs,” dominating businesses, and contributing to crime. Shops are attacked. Businesses are burned. Lives are lost.

It is not a surprise anymore that the disturbing rhetoric surrounding xenophobia has become increasingly normalised and perceived as fighting against saboteurs. Another major concern is that social media posts celebrating violence against Nigerians reveal a frightening and fearful dehumanisation of fellow Africans. This has continued to be heralded unaddressed, as some extremist anti-migrant groups now openly mobilise hostility against foreign nationals under the guise of economic nationalism.

Yet, as opposition leader Julius Malema rightly asked during one of the recent xenophobic debates. “After attacking foreigners and shutting down their businesses, how many jobs have actually been created?” If you are smart enough to know, it is glaring that this is a question that cuts through the emotional manipulation surrounding xenophobia, which also reflects the fact that destroying a Nigerian-owned shop does not solve unemployment, nor does killing migrants create prosperity. Violence against fellow Africans does not fix structural inequality.

Malema’s argument was blunt but accurate in revealing that xenophobia is not an economic strategy. It must be perceived with the right perspective as the symptom of deeper failures, poverty, inequality, weak governance, and political frustration.

Historically, just like other colonised African countries, South Africa itself carries deep old wounds. The legacy of apartheid left enduring economic inequalities, spatial segregation, unemployment, and psychological scars, but this should not continue to shape social tensions today. What is of concern is that the same people, like other African countries, experienced, were expected to remain forward-looking and forge ahead rather than dwell in the past.

It is even more pathetic that decades after the fall of apartheid, millions of Black South Africans remain trapped in poverty and exclusion; perhaps they are not to be blamed for their failures as they claimed, but the foreigners who didn’t stop them from exerting their skills become the scapegoats.

That frustration often seeks an outlet, and immigrants become easy scapegoats. This, however, does not excuse the brutality.

The stories emerging from xenophobic attacks are horrifying and very dastardly and humiliating, as African migrants have reportedly been beaten, burned alive, stoned, and hunted in communities where they once sought refuge, as two Nigerian citizens were said to have been beaten and burnt to death. To say the least, the pain becomes even more ironic when viewed against history.

Because Nigeria played a major role in supporting South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle, ranging from financial assistance to diplomatic pressure, scholarships, activism, and cultural solidarity, Nigerians stood firmly with Black South Africans during some of apartheid’s darkest years, which was enough to prevent such ugly events. Nigeria did so much to the point that Nigerian students contributed financially to anti-apartheid campaigns. Nigerian musicians used music to mobilise continental resistance. Successive governments invested enormous diplomatic and material resources into the liberation struggle.

The children and grandchildren of those who made such sacrifices are now among those facing hostility in South Africa today.

History makes the tragedy even heavier. Yet, Nigeria must also confront its own failures honestly. The truth is, if Nigeria had invested half the energy it spent supporting external liberation struggles into building a functional domestic economy, perhaps millions of Nigerians would not be fleeing abroad in search of economic survival today.

The painful reality is that many Nigerians abroad are not economic adventurers; they are economic exiles.

The ugliest side of it all is that they are exiled by unemployment, exiled by corruption, and exiled by policy failures. Again, they are exiled by a system that has repeatedly failed to convert national wealth into shared prosperity but into embezzlement that still finds its resting place in a foreign account.

This is why solving xenophobia requires more than diplomatic protests or emotional outrage, as exuded in the National Assembly by some members like Adams Oshiomhole and others. This calls for the political actors and those in the financial space to fix the conditions that force Nigerians into vulnerable migration in the first place.

One undeniable fact is that, as a country, Nigeria must fundamentally rethink governance and economic management as it takes into consideration the following solutions.

First, public accountability must become non-negotiable and should not be compromised anywhere. Corruption and resource mismanagement are critical and have robbed generations of opportunities, and these are the major traits fueling the exile. Infrastructure, industrial development, education, and healthcare must become genuine priorities rather than campaign slogans, as all these must become a reality, not a feeble promise.

Second, the banking sector must reconnect with the real economy. Financial institutions cannot continue generating enormous profits from government securities while productive sectors collapse. The government should hold a roundtable discussion with banks, which must be incentivised and, where necessary, compelled to increase lending to SMEs and productive industries capable of generating employment.

Third, there must be deliberate and conscious investment in skills, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Young Nigerians should not have to leave their homeland merely to survive because it is an aberration for a country that is enormously rich but still has some of its best hands eloping from the country.

Finally, African governments must reject the politics of division and scapegoating. This contradiction is at its height because Africa cannot claim to pursue continental unity while Africans are hunted in other African countries.

In all of the deliberation, the truth remains the same, in the sense that the story of Nigerians suffering xenophobic violence in South Africa is ultimately a story about failed systems on both sides, one on the side of economic failures pushing migrants out and the social failures turning migrants into enemies.

Until these structural realities are confronted with honesty and urgency, the cycle will continue. More young Nigerians will leave. More migrants will become vulnerable. More African societies will turn inward against each other.

But this trajectory is not irreversible. One gift that can’t be taken away from Nigerians is that Nigeria still possesses the talent, entrepreneurial energy, and human capital necessary to build a prosperous economy that gives its citizens reasons to stay rather than flee. The truth is that what has been lacking is not potential but responsible leadership and economic vision.

The true solution to xenophobia may therefore begin far away from the streets of Johannesburg or Durban. It may begin in Abuja, with governance that works, institutions that serve, banks that invest in people, and leadership that finally understands that national dignity is measured not by speeches but by whether citizens can build meaningful lives at home.

Until then, the “japa” flag will keep flying, as many Nigerians will remain exiled, not merely by borders, but by the failures of the country they still desperately want to believe in.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]

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Why East Africa is Emerging as Africa’s Trade Growth Engine

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Elvis Ndunguru

By Elvis Ndunguru

East Africa, led by Kenya, is emerging as a powerful trade hub driven by infrastructure investment, regional integration and expanding intra-African trade. As a gateway for natural resources, it boasts rare earths, gold, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and other commodities the world needs.

Trade finance is the key to unlocking cross-border flows, supporting SMEs and enabling regional value chains, opening up economic benefits for the region.

As East African trade accelerates, better Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policies have a stronger bearing on the Tanzanian mainland and Zanzibar, attracting capital movement. As stronger regional demand reshapes trade patterns, increased urbanisation and population growth are driving intra-African trade in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), construction materials, and processed goods. Improving macro-stability boosts investability as better fiscal and monetary management emerge.

But global flows demand dependence on solid infrastructure. As corridor-led infrastructure unlocks trade flows, investments in establishing ports, rail, and roads enable trade in new ways. For example, the Port of Mombasa and the Standard Gauge Railway are reducing transit times and connecting important inland markets like Uganda and Rwanda. Regional integration is being driven particularly under the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), resulting in lowered tariff and non-tariff barriers.

Between South Tanzania and North Kenya, strategically placed ports improve both inter- and intra-continental trade flow. To bolster regional connectivity, Tanzania will spend 12 trillion shillings (TZS) on port expansions. Meanwhile, the $1.4 billion Tazara (Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority)  Railway rehabilitation is underway. Kenya is investing in rail, and a new fuel pipeline is being established from Uganda to Tanzania. The Tanzania Standard Gauge Railway is indeed positioned to complement and strategically link with the Lobito Corridor, even though they originate in different parts of the continent. The strategic connection lies in creating a transcontinental logistics network for DRC: goods (especially critical minerals like copper and cobalt) can move more efficiently across Africa, either east to Indian Ocean markets or west to Atlantic routes. This reduces reliance on single export routes, improves resilience, and enhances intra-African trade under frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area.

 These developments give life to new trade flows, like transporting fuel from Uganda to the Middle East, or moving copper from Congo to China.

In the SADC and EAC regions, comprising over half a billion people, the demand for goods and services, including fuel, is significant. Regional agreements must be fostered to harmonise customs, tariffs, regulations, and the movement of goods, people and services.  Frameworks like the EAC Customs Union and AfCFTA have reduced tariffs, but the system is often plagued by border delays and inconsistent enforcement, which dilute the impact of trade.

If banks with trade finance capabilities, including institutions like Absa with a growing pan-African footprint, support infrastructure development, this will boost connectivity, lower transport costs, and improve trade opportunities.  Currently, it’s cheaper to move goods from China to Dar es Salaam than to transport them from Dar es Salaam to Mwanza, a region within Tanzania.

Trade finance is most impactful in sectors with predictable cross-border demand, such as agriculture, energy, and FMCG. Structured trade finance and supply chain finance help large corporates extend terms to suppliers, indirectly supporting SME participation.

The East African economy is largely driven by SMEs. In Tanzania, 96% of our economy depends on SMEs, but they lack funding to support themselves. The majority are trade-based, with imports from the Middle East, China, India, and others, and exports like minerals or agri-commodities to other parts of the world. While banks can help support SMEs, the locals must also support them to benefit the local market.

Besides raising capital, risk perception and informality are constraints to their success. Better credit data with digital identities and scalable guarantee schemes backed by Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) helps to mitigate risk. While simplified, digital trade finance products are now available, these are still limited. Anchor-led eco-systems with stronger linkage to large corporates are manifesting in the mining, FMCG, manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

DFIs, as key stakeholders, can work alongside financial institutions to help enhance trade routes. While it might be difficult for them to be on the ground, they can collaborate with the banks in certain markets within the continent to extend their reach.

To help with digitisation, we must empower fintechs to enable much stronger platforms. In Tanzania, SME customers work together to collaborate on small platforms to submit bulk orders to China. There’s strength in numbers.

Banks have the capabilities to support trade flows and payments via digitisation in areas like Ethiopia and the DRC. While some markets like DRC are high-risk, our competitors are growing there. Last year, a regional bank made 30% of its profit in Congo, for example. We can find safe ways to play in those markets, selecting the sectors in which we can perform.

Banks with a Pan-African presence, such as Absa, which operates across key trade corridors,  must bring a true corridor strategy to build sector-specific solutions like agri-value chains across multiple countries; use digital platforms to serve mid-market clients, not just large corporates; partner with DFIs to expand risk appetite in frontier markets; and position themselves as a trade enabler, not just financiers, by integrating advisory, foreign exchange, and working capital solutions.

The real differentiator will be the ability to intermediate not just capital, but meaningful connectivity, helping to link clients across markets, currencies, and the supply chain.

Elvis Ndunguru is the Managing Executive for Absa Corporate and Investment Banking, NBC, Tanzania

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Africa’s Cement Industry and the Push for Energy Security

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Cement Stocks

By Krzysztof Lokaja

Africa’s cement industry is expanding quickly, driven by urbanisation, infrastructure investment and rising demand for housing. Yet behind this growth lies a persistent operational challenge: reliable and affordable access to electricity.

Cement production is energy-intensive and highly sensitive to power interruptions. Kilns operate continuously, and sudden shutdowns disrupt production and increase costs. In many African markets, however, limited access to grid power and volatile energy prices leave many cement producers with no other choice but to invest in power generation capabilities on-site.

In this context, the question facing the cement industry is no longer whether to generate its own power; they often must, but which technology provides the most practical and resilient solution to do so.

The technological options typically envisaged include open-cycle gas turbines, reciprocating gas engines and sometimes even coal-fired steam turbines. But only one of these technologies offers the optimal balance of flexibility, reliability and affordability suited to highly demanding cement operations.

Flexibility in matching industrial power demand

An essential factor to take into consideration when assessing options is the way power demand fluctuates within cement plants. Although production processes often run continuously, electricity demand varies depending on grinding operations, maintenance cycles and seasonal production patterns.

By design, engine power plants are highly effective at adapting to these changing demand profiles since plant operators can simply change power output from each engine between 10% and 100% within minutes. Because they are composed of multiple engines operating in parallel, independent units can even be switched on or off to match real-time demand.

More importantly, flexible engines can operate stably at very low loads while maintaining high efficiency, giving operators a responsive tool for managing fluctuating power requirements. This capability allows the power plant to maintain very high electrical efficiency across a wide range of output levels.

This operational flexibility is also of paramount importance to support the integration of intermittent renewable energy in microgrids. As the cement industry increasingly turns to solar and wind to lower its carbon emission footprint, matching them with flexible engine capacity will provide the critical dispatch dependability needed in hybrid power plant configurations.

Open-cycle gas turbines, on the other hand, significantly lose efficiency when operating below full capacity. For industrial users that rarely operate at a constant full load, this translates into higher long-term fuel consumption, offsetting the turbines’ lower up-front cost. In a sector where energy costs represent a significant share of operating expenses, differences in efficiency over time will outweigh any initial capital cost advantages.

Unlike engines that can be turned on and off multiple times during a day and require no minimum up and down time, turbines need to operate constantly to avoid thermal stresses and, therefore, increased maintenance costs. This lack of operational flexibility will significantly undermine the efficiency, but also severely limit the performance of renewables in hybrid microgrid configurations.

Reliability and scalability as baseline requirements

For cement plants, electricity supply must be dependable above all else. Reciprocating engine power plants typically achieve availability rates over 98 per cent, making them well-suited to industrial environments where access to energy must always be dependable.

One reason for this reliability lies in the modular nature of engine-based plants. Unlike turbine power plants, their configuration allows individual units to be serviced without shutting down the entire plant. Servicing can be planned and carried out on site while the remaining engines continue to operate. Spare parts planning, local technical support and straightforward servicing procedures also help keep downtime to a minimum.

The modular structure of engine power plants also allows for new generation capacity to be expanded gradually. As cement plants increase production, additional generating units can be installed without redesigning the entire power system, whilst avoiding the need for oversized plants. This structural flexibility reduces investment risk, allowing power infrastructure to grow alongside industrial demand.

In this regard, engine power plants offer a degree of adaptability that is difficult to achieve with other generation technologies.

Coal, a cheap option with considerable downsides

Coal-fired power plants are sometimes considered as an alternative for captive power in certain countries, particularly where cheap coal resources are locally available. However, coal-based generation presents its own set of challenges for industrial users.

Much like open-cycle gas turbines, coal plants are designed primarily for steady, continuous operation and are less suited to environments where power output must adjust frequently and rapidly. Startup times can extend to many hours, and maintenance often requires large sections of the plant to be taken offline. This lack of flexibility negatively impacts project economics.

Environmental considerations also represent a major downside for coal. Financing institutions, investors and owners are paying closer attention to emissions profiles and long-term climate risks. As a result, coal-based power plants can encounter significant barriers to financing.

Preparing for an evolving energy landscape

Energy systems across Africa are evolving, with new gas infrastructure, renewable energy projects and volatile fuel markets reshaping the landscape. Industrial power solutions, therefore, need to be able to accommodate these transformations.

Of course, no single power technology is universally optimal. Yet, when sustainability, scalability, reliability, operational flexibility and long-term efficiency are considered together, engine-based power plants present a compelling option for many cement producers across the continent.

Krzysztof Lokaj is the Africa Development Manager for Wärtsilä Energy

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