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Explainer: Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Figures Crashed to 4.1% from 33.3%

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Unemployment Rate

By Adedapo Adesanya

On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in a report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023, said Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.

This may have come as a shock to many, but it was expected as the NBS on April 20, 2023, made adjustments to how the figures will be calculated moving forward. The NBS adopted global standards as its new method and this crashed the rate from a high of 33.3 per cent released in 2020.

What is the new methodology? 

In line with standards introduced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an employed person is defined as anyone working at least one hour a week, unlike the old methodology where you had to work at least 20 hours a week to be considered employed.

The new methodology introduced other fresh benchmarks as well. The sample size was widened to 34,250 as against 33,000. Also, the data will be gathered weekly as against quarterly in the previous method.

Other criteria include replacing the 13th ICLS resolution with the adoption of the 19th ICLS resolution, which introduces a new classification called forms of work ranging from own-use production work, employment work, unpaid trainee work, volunteer work, and other mandatory productive activities unpaid to third parties. The categories are mutually exclusive, but persons can work simultaneously on more than one of them.

People who were willing and available to work between 1-39 hours also now fall under underemployment, while before it was those who worked between 20 hours and 39 hours, and unemployment covers individuals who worked 0 hours even if they were available to work while before it was anyone who worked below 20 hours.

Also, before, it only placed people who worked between 15 and 64 years as the working population, but now it is anyone between 15 years and above. This means that aged people who work are brought into the frat.

This new method adjusted the sample population, and this restructured the numbers to 4.1 per cent.

According to the numbers:

With this new structure, about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023. This shows that most people were engaged in some jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.

About one-third (36.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 33.2 per cent in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.

The underemployment rate, which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.

It added that most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in farming activities.

“Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.

“22.3 per cent of the working age population were out of the labour force in Q4 2022, while it was 20.1 per cent in Q1, 2023.

“The rate of informal employment among the employed Nigerians was 93.5% in Q4 2022 and 92.6% in Q1 2023.”

An in-depth analysis of this new methodology and questions about whether it adequately examines the Nigerian situation were raised in this Stears article.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Rivers Speaker, 15 Other Lawmakers Leave PDP for APC

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rivers speaker Martin Amaewhule defect

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Mr Martin Amaewhule, has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

At the plenary on Friday, Mr Amaewhule joined the ruling party from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), along with 15 other members of the state parliament.

This development comes some months after they had earlier declared their support for the APC in the wake of a crisis with the state governor, Mr Sim Fubura.

The lawmakers had an issue with Mr Fubura, which led to a state of emergency declared on the oil-rich state by President Bola Tinubu in March 2025.

This embargo was only lift in September 2025 after the duration of the six-month emergency rule in the state.

A few days ago, members of the Rivers Assembly passed a vote of confidence on President Tinubu, backing him to remain in office till 2031, when he would have spent eight years in office if re-elected in 2027.

Announcing their defection today, the lawmakers pinned their decision on the crisis rocking the PDP at the national level.

It is not certain if their political godfather, Mr Nyesom Wike, who is the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), will join them in APC.

Mr Wike, who governed Rivers State from 2015 to 2023, has been accused of instigating the crisis in the opposition PDP. He was expelled from the party last month at a national convention held in Ibadan, Oyo State.

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Nigeria Risks Brain Drain in Energy Sector—PENGASSAN

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energy sector

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned that Nigeria risks massive brain drain in the oil and gas sector due to poor remuneration.

The president of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, said at the end of the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the union on Thursday in Abuja that the industry was facing challenges arising from Naira devaluation and inflation, noting that, oil and gas skills remained globally competitive.

Painting an example, he said, “A drilling engineer in Nigeria does the same job as one in the US or Abu Dhabi,” noting that the union must take steps to bridge the wage gap to prevent members from leaving the country for better opportunities abroad.

“If we don’t act, the brain drain seen in other sectors will be child’s play,” he said.

According to him, PENGASSAN has recorded significant gains through collective bargaining across oil and gas branches.

“We signed numerous agreements across government agencies, IOCs, service and marketing sectors,” he said.

He said the agreements brought relief to members facing rising costs of living, adding that, the association’s duty is to protect members’ jobs and enhance their pay.

Mr Osifo urged companies delaying salary reviews and those foot-dragging as a result of the prevailing economic realities, to do the needful.

He said the industry employed some of the nation’s best talents, making competitive pay critical to retaining skilled workers.

“This industry recruits the best. Companies must provide the best conditions,” he said.

On insecurity, Mr Osifo urged government to take decisive action against terrorism and kidnappings across the country.

“We are tired of condemnations. government must expose sponsors and protect citizens,” he said.

He urged government at all levels to prioritise tackling insecurity through better funding and equipment for security agencies.

Mr Osifo said PENGASSAN supported calls for state police to improve local security response, adding that decentralising policing will protect citizens better than rhetoric.

He also said economic indicators meant little, if food prices remained high and farmers could not return to farms due to insecurity.

“Nigerians want to see food on the table, not macroeconomic figures,” he said, urging the government to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic gains reach households.

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Bill Seeking Creation of Unified Emergency Number Passes Second Reading

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Unified Emergency Number

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s crisis-response bill seeking to establish a single, toll-free, three-digit emergency number for nationwide use passed for second reading in the Senate this week.

Sponsored by Mr Abdulaziz Musa Yar’adua, the proposed legislation aims to replace the country’s chaotic patchwork of emergency lines with a unified code—112—that citizens can dial for police, fire, medical, rescue and other life-threatening situations.

Lawmakers said the reform is urgently needed to address delays, miscommunication and avoidable deaths linked to Nigeria’s fragmented response system amid rising insecurity.

Leading debate, Mr Yar’adua said Nigeria has outgrown the “operational disorder” caused by multiple emergency numbers in Lagos, Abuja, Ogun and other states for ambulance services, police intervention, fire incidents, domestic violence, child abuse and other crises.

He said, “This bill seeks to provide for a nationwide toll-free emergency number that will aid the implementation of a national system of reporting emergencies.

“The presence of multiple emergency numbers in Nigeria has been identified as an impediment to getting accelerated emergency response.”

Mr Yar’adua noted that the reform would bring Nigeria in line with global best practices, citing the United States, United Kingdom and India, countries where a single emergency line has improved coordination, enhanced location tracking and strengthened first responders’ efficiency.

With an estimated 90 per cent of Nigerians owning mobile phones, he said the unified number would significantly widen public access to emergency services.

Under the bill, all calls and text messages would be routed to the nearest public safety answering point or control room.

He urged the Senate to fast-track the bill’s passage, stressing the need for close collaboration with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), relevant agencies and telecom operators to ensure nationwide coverage.

Senator Ali Ndume described the reform as “timely and very, very important,” warning that the absence of a reliable reporting channel has worsened Nigeria’s security vulnerabilities.

“One of the challenges we are having during this heightened insecurity is lack of proper or effective communication with the affected agencies,” Ndume said.

“If we do this, we are enhancing and contributing to solving the security challenges and other related criminalities we are facing,” he added.

Also speaking in support, Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno said a centralised emergency number would remove barriers to citizen reporting and strengthen public involvement in security management.

He said, “Our security community is always calling on the general public to report what they see.

“There is a need for government to create an avenue where the public can report what they see without any hindrance. The bill would give strength and muscular expression to national calls for vigilance.”

The bill was referred to the Senate Committee on Communications for further legislative work and is expected to be returned for final consideration within four weeks.

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