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Explainer: Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Figures Crashed to 4.1% from 33.3%

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Unemployment Rate

By Adedapo Adesanya

On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in a report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023, said Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.

This may have come as a shock to many, but it was expected as the NBS on April 20, 2023, made adjustments to how the figures will be calculated moving forward. The NBS adopted global standards as its new method and this crashed the rate from a high of 33.3 per cent released in 2020.

What is the new methodology? 

In line with standards introduced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an employed person is defined as anyone working at least one hour a week, unlike the old methodology where you had to work at least 20 hours a week to be considered employed.

The new methodology introduced other fresh benchmarks as well. The sample size was widened to 34,250 as against 33,000. Also, the data will be gathered weekly as against quarterly in the previous method.

Other criteria include replacing the 13th ICLS resolution with the adoption of the 19th ICLS resolution, which introduces a new classification called forms of work ranging from own-use production work, employment work, unpaid trainee work, volunteer work, and other mandatory productive activities unpaid to third parties. The categories are mutually exclusive, but persons can work simultaneously on more than one of them.

People who were willing and available to work between 1-39 hours also now fall under underemployment, while before it was those who worked between 20 hours and 39 hours, and unemployment covers individuals who worked 0 hours even if they were available to work while before it was anyone who worked below 20 hours.

Also, before, it only placed people who worked between 15 and 64 years as the working population, but now it is anyone between 15 years and above. This means that aged people who work are brought into the frat.

This new method adjusted the sample population, and this restructured the numbers to 4.1 per cent.

According to the numbers:

With this new structure, about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023. This shows that most people were engaged in some jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.

About one-third (36.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 33.2 per cent in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.

The underemployment rate, which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.

It added that most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in farming activities.

“Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.

“22.3 per cent of the working age population were out of the labour force in Q4 2022, while it was 20.1 per cent in Q1, 2023.

“The rate of informal employment among the employed Nigerians was 93.5% in Q4 2022 and 92.6% in Q1 2023.”

An in-depth analysis of this new methodology and questions about whether it adequately examines the Nigerian situation were raised in this Stears article.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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RMAFC Kicks Off Data Verification for Revenue Allocation Framework

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RMAFC

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A nationwide data verification exercise to review the factors and proxies used in the sharing of revenue among states and local governments has commenced.

The revenue allocation framework initiative is being conducted by the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC).

The goal is to ensure that the distribution of national resources accurately reflects the current socio-economic realities across the federation, a statement signed by the organisation’s Head of Information and Public Relations Unit, Ms Maryam Umar Yusuf, stated.

In the statement issued on Thursday, the chairman of the commission, Mr Mohammed Bello Shehu, was said to have posited that the exercise would strengthen fiscal federalism and enhance national development planning across the country.

According to him, credible and verified data remains the foundation of a fair and sustainable revenue allocation system.

“The commission is committed to ensuring that Nigeria’s revenue allocation framework reflects the realities on the ground. Accurate data is the backbone of fairness, equity, and national cohesion.

“This nationwide exercise represents our determination to build a more transparent and responsive revenue distribution system that serves the interests of all Nigerians,” he noted.

Mr Shehu urged the state governments, local authorities, traditional institutions, civil society organisations, and community leaders to provide full cooperation to the agency’s verification teams, emphasising that the outcomes of the programme will have far-reaching implications for national planning, fiscal management, and balanced regional development across the federation.

As part of its nationwide rollout strategy, it has scheduled region-by-region data verification exercises across all states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.

The exercise will involve systematic collection, validation, and reconciliation of critical socio-economic and infrastructural data used in determining revenue allocation indices for horizontal revenue sharing.

It was disclosed that the focus would be on key indicators like education and health provision, internal revenue generation capacity, and infrastructure development across the states and local government areas.

Stakeholder engagement sessions will also be conducted in each state to ensure transparency, build trust, and promote collaborative participation among government agencies and local communities.

Nigeria’s revenue allocation framework relies on specific indices, including those of population, landmass, infrastructure, and socio-economic development indicators, all of which must be periodically reviewed to reflect changing realities.

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President Tinubu Greets Senator Kalu at 65

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Orji Uzor Kalu Tinubu 65th birthday

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Senator representing Abia North Senatorial District in the National Assembly, Mr Orji Uzor Kalu, has been congratulated by President Bola Tinubu on his 65th birthday.

In a statement released by the State House, the former Governor of Abia State was praised for his multifaceted roles and his service to the nation.

Mr Tinubu said his longtime friend and political ally has worked for the growth of Nigeria, having served as the Senate Chief Whip and currently the Chairman of the Senate Committee on the South East Development Commission (SEDC).

The SEDC is one of the regional development commissions established by the administration of President Tinubu to accelerate infrastructure, economic growth, and overall development across the South East geopolitical zone.

The President highlighted the lawmaker’s significant contributions during his tenure as Governor of Abia State from 1999 to 2007, as well as his continued dedication to the progress of the state and the nation at large.

He also acknowledged Mr Kalu’s accomplishments in the private sector, describing him as a media mogul and Chairman of SLOK Holding, who continues to play a vital role in Nigeria’s economic development.

“Senator Orji Uzor Kalu’s vision, resilience, industry and service to the nation and commitment to the progress of Abia are noteworthy,” President Tinubu remarked.

“I wish him long life, greater strength and increased wisdom as he continues his service to the nation,” the President concluded.

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FCCPC Seals Paradise Estate Over Consumer Rights Violations

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Paradise Estate Abuja

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has sealed Paradise Estate in Life Camp Extension, Abuja, following serious allegations of consumer rights violations.

The action was taken due to the estate’s alleged failure to deliver housing units to buyers despite receiving full payment.

The FCCPC also cited multiple public complaints and other offences as grounds for the enforcement.

According to the commission, numerous complaints had been lodged against Paradise Estate, but the management repeatedly failed to comply with regulatory directives.

The non-compliance prompted the FCCPC’s visitation and eventual sealing of the premises.

Speaking to reporters, the FCCPC’s Deputy Director of Surveillance, Marvin Nadah, noted that the developer was given a seven-day window to respond to an official summons but failed to comply.

In its defence, Paradise Homes’ Head of Legal, Mr Aloysius Ezenwa, argued that the transactions were protected under the existing “Contract of Sale.” The company expressed its dissatisfaction with the sealing, maintaining that the dispute is a contractual matter that should be settled before a tribunal.

However, the FCCPC maintained that its actions were lawful and that it had not been served with any court appeal to halt the process.

The commission reiterated its stance on prioritising the rights of Nigerian consumers and ensuring developers are held accountable.

It noted its commitment to protecting consumers from unfair business practices and warned other real estate developers to adhere strictly to contractual obligations and consumer protection laws.

The FCCPC’s involvement in a housing complaint comes after a Federal High Court in Abuja ruled that the organisation has the powers to investigate consumers’ complaints involving banks and other financial institutions.

The banks, the court ruled, are answerable to FCCPC. It dismissed a suit filed by the United Bank for Africa (UBA) and slammed N2 million on it.

The decision has been described as a big win for bank customers.

In a statement signed by its Corporate Affairs Director, Mr Ondaje Ijagwu, FCCPC’s chief executive, Mr Tunji Bello, said, “This is a big victory for bank customers.”

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