General
Explainer: Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Figures Crashed to 4.1% from 33.3%
By Adedapo Adesanya
On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in a report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023, said Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.
This may have come as a shock to many, but it was expected as the NBS on April 20, 2023, made adjustments to how the figures will be calculated moving forward. The NBS adopted global standards as its new method and this crashed the rate from a high of 33.3 per cent released in 2020.
What is the new methodology?
In line with standards introduced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an employed person is defined as anyone working at least one hour a week, unlike the old methodology where you had to work at least 20 hours a week to be considered employed.
The new methodology introduced other fresh benchmarks as well. The sample size was widened to 34,250 as against 33,000. Also, the data will be gathered weekly as against quarterly in the previous method.
Other criteria include replacing the 13th ICLS resolution with the adoption of the 19th ICLS resolution, which introduces a new classification called forms of work ranging from own-use production work, employment work, unpaid trainee work, volunteer work, and other mandatory productive activities unpaid to third parties. The categories are mutually exclusive, but persons can work simultaneously on more than one of them.
People who were willing and available to work between 1-39 hours also now fall under underemployment, while before it was those who worked between 20 hours and 39 hours, and unemployment covers individuals who worked 0 hours even if they were available to work while before it was anyone who worked below 20 hours.
Also, before, it only placed people who worked between 15 and 64 years as the working population, but now it is anyone between 15 years and above. This means that aged people who work are brought into the frat.
This new method adjusted the sample population, and this restructured the numbers to 4.1 per cent.
According to the numbers:
With this new structure, about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023. This shows that most people were engaged in some jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.
About one-third (36.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 33.2 per cent in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.
The underemployment rate, which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.
It added that most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in farming activities.
“Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.
“22.3 per cent of the working age population were out of the labour force in Q4 2022, while it was 20.1 per cent in Q1, 2023.
“The rate of informal employment among the employed Nigerians was 93.5% in Q4 2022 and 92.6% in Q1 2023.”
An in-depth analysis of this new methodology and questions about whether it adequately examines the Nigerian situation were raised in this Stears article.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says it recorded a 30 per cent reduction in gas imbalance on the country’s Western Network following the conclusion of its first-half 2026 Nigerian Gas Network Reconciliation (NGNR) Workshop.
The workshop brought together gas transporters, suppliers, shippers and off-takers to reconcile gas volumes traded between January and June 2026, while introducing a Network Entry/Exit Point Measurement Infrastructure Audit Template aimed at improving metering accuracy and accountability across the gas transmission network.
In a communiqué issued after the workshop, the authority said participants also reviewed the performance of the Nigerian Gas Transmission Network, assessed progress on major pipeline infrastructure projects, and received updates on the ELPS Gas Shrinkage Factor and Hydraulic Modelling Project.
Discussions focused on addressing metering gaps, improving network visibility through Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) integration, and enhancing system reliability ahead of the commissioning of the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Pipeline System.
The workshop adopted key resolutions, including the execution of outstanding Network Exit Agreements, mandatory submission of measurement audit templates and closer collaboration among industry stakeholders to improve network pressure management.
Speaking at the closing session on behalf of the authority’s chief executive, Mr Rabiu A. Umar, the Director of Transportation Systems and Networks, Mr Joseph G. Musa, said the biannual reconciliation exercise had become critical to promoting equitable gas transactions, transparency, investor confidence and efficient network operations.
Mr Musa noted that since the NGNR process was introduced in 2023, it had significantly improved gas measurement, strengthened regulatory compliance through consequence management, reduced operational imbalances and contributed to a more reliable domestic gas supply.
The workshop concluded with participants adopting the reconciled H1 2026 gas volumes, reaffirming the authority’s commitment to a transparent, efficient and reliable domestic gas market.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
An investment that supports growing food and agriculture companies across Africa that strengthen agricultural value chains has been made by Swedfund.
The organisation is putting down about $12 million to strengthen climate resilience in African food systems through the Acumen Resilient Agriculture Fund II (ARAF II).
By improving access to markets, finance and essential services, these companies help smallholder farmers become more resilient to climate and economic shocks.
Over 30 million smallholder farmers operate across Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 80 per cent of all farms and producing 70 per cent of the region’s food (IFAD). Yet many face limited access to finance, quality inputs, reliable buyers and market information. At the same time, they are among those most exposed to climate change and weather-related shocks, which threaten harvests, incomes and food security.
The investment has an ambition to reach around four million smallholder farmers through ARAF II’s portfolio companies. It also aims to meet the criteria of the 2X Challenge, which promotes investments that support women’s economic empowerment.
ARAF II invests in businesses that address key gaps in agricultural value chains, from improving market access and reducing post-harvest losses to expanding financial and digital services for farmers. By helping these businesses grow, the investment aims to improve productivity, strengthen local value chains and increase the resilience of food systems.
Swedfund invests alongside other development finance institutions and investors to help mobilise long-term capital for businesses that often struggle to access financing despite their potential to strengthen food security, climate resilience and economic development across Africa.
“Climate change is already affecting the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers across Africa. Investing in businesses that improve access to markets, finance and agricultural services helps farmers strengthen their resilience, increase productivity and build more stable incomes. That is essential for more resilient food systems,” the Investment Director of Food Systems and Strategic Investments at Swedfund, Ms Helen Hagos, said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has urged President Bola Tinubu to order a probe into the alleged diversion, disappearance and misapplication of more than N6.79 billion in public funds within the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) and the Federal Ministry of Police Affairs.
The grave allegations are documented in the latest Annual Report of the Auditor-General of the Federation published on September 9, 2025.
SERAP said, “Anyone suspected to be responsible—including contractors, companies and public officials implicated in the report—should be promptly prosecuted, while all missing public funds, firearms and ammunition should be fully recovered, secured and properly accounted for.”
In the letter dated August 1, 2026, and signed by SERAP deputy director, Mr Kolawole Oluwadare, the organisation said: “The Auditor-General’s findings suggest a grave betrayal of the public trust and raise serious concerns about corruption and the management of public funds, police exhibits, firearms and ammunition.”
SERAP said: “The report also raises serious concerns over missing firearms and ammunition, the unauthorised use and release of police exhibits, failures to properly account for exhibits, and the insecure storage of firearms, creating significant risks to public safety and national security.”
According to the group, “The diversion of funds meant for policing, abandoned security projects, missing firearms and ammunition, and the misuse of police exhibits undermine the operational effectiveness of the Nigeria Police Force, weaken public confidence and may contribute to Nigeria’s worsening insecurity.”
The letter, read in part: “The report documented numerous alleged financial irregularities within the Nigeria Police Force and the Federal Ministry of Police Affairs, including payments for projects that were never executed, abandoned contracts, inflated contract costs, and irregular procurement.”
“The report also documented unretired cash advances, unsettled insurance claims, payments for services allegedly not rendered, and other suspected diversion and misapplication of public funds amounting to over ₦6.79 billion.”
“The allegations also include missing firearms and ammunition, the unauthorised use and release of police exhibits, failures to properly account for recovered firearms and other exhibits, and the insecure storage of firearms, posing serious risks to public safety and national security.”
“We would be grateful if the recommended measures are taken within seven days of the receipt and/or publication of this letter. If we have not heard from you by then, SERAP shall consider appropriate legal action to compel your government to comply with our request in the public interest.”
Some of the others include: N499,875,500.00 for the construction of Police College Phase II, Bashar, Plateau State; N12,931,000.00 for the rehabilitation of Block B, Department of Logistics and Supply (Works) building, Garki; N111,635,864.64 for the construction of 12 one-bedroom transit camp units and rehabilitation of the administration block at the NPF Pre-retirement Skills Acquisition Centre, Kudana, Kaduna State; N4,011,627.89 inserted as taxes to inflate a contract; N1,938,299,452.00 for 14 ongoing projects that were abandoned; N5,050,000.00 in monetary exhibits released without proper authorisation; N112,026,424.00 for outstanding allowances paid to officers to cover 2020 liabilities; and N6,000,000.00 as annual payment to the Inspector General of Police’s Senior Special Assistant on Revenue and Tax Matters.
Others include N10,080,000.00 as cash advances for the provision of office equipment and accessories for the NPF Database Management Centre; N438,066,845.73 for the supply of bulletproof vests, ballistic helmets and procurement of a Styr Punch Vistar troop carrier; N18,000,000.00 for the training of women in cosmetology and provision of empowerment kits in Ondo Central Senatorial District, Ondo State; N258,989,999.75 for the procurement of 10 JAC patrol vehicles for NPF outpost stations in Kano State; N30,853,250.00 as security allowances for personnel attached to the Ministry of Police Affairs; N681,406,593.18 for the settlement of insurance claims through insurance brokers; N1,628,108,434.18 for outstanding insurance policy liabilities for 2020/2021; N57,484,515.30 for the procurement of video cameras, customised umbrellas, gift bags and customised towels for the Nigeria Police Force Public Relations Office; N7,760,409.56 in withholding tax and value added tax that was not deducted from contracts awarded.
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