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Explainer: Why Nigeria’s Unemployment Figures Crashed to 4.1% from 33.3%

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Unemployment Rate

By Adedapo Adesanya

On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in a report titled Nigeria Labour Force Statistics Report Q4 2022 & Q1 2023, said Nigeria’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 from 5.3 per cent in the fourth of 2022.

This may have come as a shock to many, but it was expected as the NBS on April 20, 2023, made adjustments to how the figures will be calculated moving forward. The NBS adopted global standards as its new method and this crashed the rate from a high of 33.3 per cent released in 2020.

What is the new methodology? 

In line with standards introduced by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), an employed person is defined as anyone working at least one hour a week, unlike the old methodology where you had to work at least 20 hours a week to be considered employed.

The new methodology introduced other fresh benchmarks as well. The sample size was widened to 34,250 as against 33,000. Also, the data will be gathered weekly as against quarterly in the previous method.

Other criteria include replacing the 13th ICLS resolution with the adoption of the 19th ICLS resolution, which introduces a new classification called forms of work ranging from own-use production work, employment work, unpaid trainee work, volunteer work, and other mandatory productive activities unpaid to third parties. The categories are mutually exclusive, but persons can work simultaneously on more than one of them.

People who were willing and available to work between 1-39 hours also now fall under underemployment, while before it was those who worked between 20 hours and 39 hours, and unemployment covers individuals who worked 0 hours even if they were available to work while before it was anyone who worked below 20 hours.

Also, before, it only placed people who worked between 15 and 64 years as the working population, but now it is anyone between 15 years and above. This means that aged people who work are brought into the frat.

This new method adjusted the sample population, and this restructured the numbers to 4.1 per cent.

According to the numbers:

With this new structure, about three-quarters of working-age Nigerians were employed – 73.6 per cent in Q4 2022 and 76.7 per cent in Q1 2023. This shows that most people were engaged in some jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit.

About one-third (36.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 33.2 per cent in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.

The underemployment rate, which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more, was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023.

It added that most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in farming activities.

“Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed.

“22.3 per cent of the working age population were out of the labour force in Q4 2022, while it was 20.1 per cent in Q1, 2023.

“The rate of informal employment among the employed Nigerians was 93.5% in Q4 2022 and 92.6% in Q1 2023.”

An in-depth analysis of this new methodology and questions about whether it adequately examines the Nigerian situation were raised in this Stears article.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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NERC Orders DisCos to Pay 20% Compensation to Affected Band A Customers

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Prepaid Meters DisCos

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has ordered electricity distribution companies (DisCos) to pay 20 per cent compensation to eligible Band A customers who were affected by power shortfalls between February and March 2026.

In Directive No. NERC/2026/002, the commission said, generation constraints, which were largely caused by inadequate gas supply and vandalism of gas and transmission infrastructure, prevented DisCos from meeting committed service levels for some Band A feeders.

NERC Mandated that for feeders that supplied less than 18 hours per day, affected Band A feeders will not be downgraded during the covered period, and eligible customers will receive special compensation equal to 20 per cent of approved energy figures for February 2026.

However, for Band A feeders that recorded an average daily supply of between 18 and 20 hours, the existing compensation framework under Addendum No. NERC/2024/003 applies to both Maximum Demand (MD) and Non-Maximum Demand (Non-MD) customers.

MD customers are high-consumption users who typically have their own dedicated transformer and operate with a load of 45 kVA and above; they include large residential estates, banks, hotels, supermarkets, industrial facilities and oil and gas complexes.

Non-MD customers do not have a dedicated transformer and instead share public transformers, and they generally consume less, often below 45–50 kVA.

For Non-MD customers, compensation is set at 20 per cent of the approved February 2026 energy cap applicable to the affected feeder.

For MD customers, compensation is 20 per cent of the average energy billed per MD customer in February 2026.

According to NERC, prepaid customers will receive their compensation as token credits, while postpaid customers will receive bill adjustments.

The commission said that compensation for February must be completed by 31 May 2026, while compensation for March must be completed by 30 June 2026.

The commission prohibited Distribution companies from using compensation credits to offset any existing customer debt, adding that customers must be clearly informed of the value and period of the compensation they receive.

NERC said it will monitor implementation and verify compliance to ensure all eligible customers receive what they are due.

The commission reaffirmed its commitment to protecting electricity consumers while ensuring the stability and sustainability of the electricity market.

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TCN Confirms Destruction of Six Transmission Towers in Nasarawa

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Transmission Towers

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has confirmed the destruction of six transmission towers along the Apir–Lafia 330kV line in Nasarawa State, causing significant disruption to electricity supply in parts of the country.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, TCN spokesperson, Mrs Ndidi Mbah, said the incident occurred on May 30 at about 1:15 a.m. during a heavy downpour.

She explained that the transmission line initially tripped, prompting operators to attempt a trial reclosure of Line II at about 2:08 a.m., but the effort failed.

A subsequent inspection of the transmission corridor, however, revealed extensive damage to key components of towers T125 to T130, confirming that the infrastructure had been vandalised.

“The tripping of the lines prompted a physical line trace to determine the fault, which revealed damage to critical components of towers T125 to T130, confirming vandalism on the affected sections of the transmission corridor,” Mbah said.

The incident has forced both Apir–Lafia 330kV Transmission Lines I and II out of service pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

TCN said its engineers have been deployed to the site to assess the extent of the damage and determine the materials required to restore normal transmission along the corridor.

As an interim measure, the Lafia 330kV Transmission Station is being supplied through an alternative line to minimise the impact on electricity consumers within the franchise areas of Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) and Jos Electricity Distribution Company (JEDC).

The company condemned the persistent vandalism of power infrastructure, warning that such acts undermine investments in the electricity sector and threaten the stability of the national grid.

It also urged residents and host communities to remain vigilant and report suspicious activities around transmission installations to security agencies or the nearest TCN office.

TCN stressed that safeguarding critical national infrastructure requires collective responsibility to ensure a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply nationwide.

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IFC, NGX Group, LCCI Unveil Nigeria Gender Country Programme

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Gender and Equal Opportunities Commission

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A Nigeria Gender Country Programme (NGCP) to advance private sector action on gender equality and inclusive economic growth has been unveiled at a high-level virtual CEO Roundtable convened by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI).

The NGCP builds on the momentum of Nigeria2Equal and other initiatives that have advanced workplace inclusion, women’s leadership, entrepreneurship, and sustainable finance across Nigeria’s private sector.

Designed as a more integrated and collaborative platform, the programme seeks to scale impact through coordinated action among development institutions, business leaders, regulators, and the organised private sector.

Anchored on three strategic priorities, the programme aims to increase women’s representation in leadership, improve access to quality employment, and expand access to productive assets—including finance, technology, and markets—for women and women-led businesses.

The partners are expected to formally launch the Nigeria Gender Country Program at a physical event scheduled for July 9, 2026, where stakeholders will further advance implementation of the programme’s strategic priorities.

At the virtual event, the Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, said, “Gender inclusion is fundamentally an economic growth imperative. Closing gender gaps can unlock billions of dollars in value for Nigeria while strengthening business performance and national competitiveness. We must therefore move beyond viewing inclusion as a corporate social responsibility initiative or compliance exercise, and instead recognise it as a strategic driver of productivity, innovation, and sustainable economic growth.”

Commenting on the initiative, the chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said the initiative “presents a significant opportunity to deepen impact and accelerate progress across corporate Nigeria. By expanding women’s access to leadership opportunities, quality employment, finance, technology, and markets, we can unlock substantial economic value while building a more competitive, inclusive, and resilient private sector. At NGX Group, we believe the capital market has a critical role to play in advancing these outcomes through stronger governance, transparency, and stakeholder engagement.”

On his part, the IFC Head of Office in Lagos, Mr Christian Mulamula, said, “Closing the gender gap is one of the most significant opportunities to strengthen competitiveness and productivity. Across Africa, gender inequality is estimated to cost up to $2.5 trillion. Through the Nigeria Gender Country Program, IFC is working with the private sector to expand women’s leadership, improve access to better jobs, and increase opportunities for women-led businesses. Building on Nigeria2Equal, this initiative focuses on practical, measurable solutions that help businesses grow while advancing inclusive growth.”

In her remarks, the DG of LCCI, Ms Chinyere Almona, noted that the programme’s success would depend on leadership accountability and sustained commitment from business leaders, particularly in embedding gender inclusion into organisational strategy and execution.

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