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Meristem Forecasts August 2023 Inflation at 25.37%

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Inflation

By Dipo Olowookere

Inflation in Nigeria for August 2023 should reach 25.37 per cent compared with the 24.08 per cent recorded in July 2023, analysts at Meristem Securities Limited have predicted.

In a research note obtained by Business Post, the investment firm said this 1.29 per cent surge in the average cost of goods and services would be influenced by the rise in the prices of food, premium motor spirit (PMS), “the lingering challenges in sourcing foreign exchange (FX) and depreciating exchange rate.”

Nigeria has faced a food crisis for some months due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022.

Despite being a major oil-producing country in Africa, the country, which prides itself as the largest economy on the continent, has struggled to improve its forex earnings despite the prices of crude oil rising.

In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy, shooting the price of petrol in the country higher. This caused prices of goods and services to go red hot and have refused to cool down.

The liberalisation of the forex market has also not helped matters, and the gap between the official exchange rate and the others has continued to widen.

In the note released ahead of the disclosure of the inflation numbers for last month on Friday, September 15, by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Meristem said the headline inflation is expected “to increase by 129 basis points to 25.37 per cent (on a year-on-year basis) versus 24.08 per cent in July 2023.”

It noted that despite the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) revealing that last month, the global food commodity price index fell by -2.11 per cent, it was not the same in Nigeria, as key food prices remained elevated in the period under review “based on our perception of market prices.”

“We anticipate a continued surge in the price of rice and oils, hinged on the partial ban on rice exports in India, which has had a substantial impact on global rice supply.

“We also expect that higher logistic costs and poor road networks in the country would further impact food prices.

“Thus, we expect food inflation to shoot up by 173bps to 28.71 per cent for August 2023,” a part of the note stated.

The firm further said the FX crisis and high energy costs would “drive up the prices of import dependent items like petroleum products, motor vehicles, clothing and fabrics etc., that typically impact the core index movement.”

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes

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UK Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.

Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.

Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”

The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.

Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.

“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”

On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.

“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”

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Economy

MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth

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MTN Nigeria SMEDAN

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).

The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.

With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.

At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.

The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.

“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.

Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.

“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.

Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.

“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.

“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.

Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.

He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.

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Economy

NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax

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capital gains tax

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.

Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.

Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.

The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”

According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”

“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”

Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.

He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.

Mr Oyedele  also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.

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