Economy
Escalation of Israel-Hamas Conflict Can Drive Oil to $157—World Bank
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has warned that oil prices could soar to a record high of $157 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to a repeat of the full-scale conflict in the Middle East witnessed 50 years ago.
The Bretton-Wood institution in the first major assessment of the economic risks of an escalation of the war beyond Gaza’s borders on Monday said there was a risk of the cost of crude entering “uncharted waters”.
Recall that in 1973, Arab members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the US decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations.
The oil embargo led to a sudden fourfold increase in the cost of crude, ushering in higher inflation and rising unemployment that brought the long postwar boom in the global economy to an end.
With recent developments, the global lender sketched three paths that oil prices could take following the conflict. These are “small disruption”, “medium disruption”, or “large disruption”.
According to the World Bank, a “large disruption” scenario comparable to the Arab oil boycott of the West in 1973 would create supply shortages of up to 75 per cent that would lead to the price of a barrel of oil increasing from about $90 to between $140 and $157.
A “medium disruption” scenario – roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003 – where the global oil supply would be reduced by 3 million to 5 million barrels a day could cause a rise by 21 per cent to 35 per cent to between $109 and $121 a barrel.
In the “small disruption” scenario, in which the global oil supply would be reduced by 500,000 to 2 million barrels a day, roughly equivalent to the reduction seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011, the oil price would rise to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel.
In its assessment, the bank said the Israel-Hamas war so far had little impact on commodity prices.
Oil prices had risen by just about 6 per cent, but agricultural commodities, industrial metals and other commodities had “barely budged”, it said.
Under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, oil prices will average $90 a barrel in the current quarter before declining to an average of $81 a barrel next year as global economic growth slows.
“The outlook for commodity prices would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate,” the lender added.
It also called on policymakers to be vigilant because “If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades – not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East.”
The bank said the shock to the global economy would not be confined to energy costs but would also result in hundreds of millions going hungry as a result of higher food prices.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 3, further appreciated against the United States Dollar by N4.52 or 0.33 per cent to N1,374.94/$1 from N1,379.46/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency gained against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N3.34 during the session to close at N1,858.24/£1 compared to the previous rate of N1,861.58/£1, and against the Euro, it improved by N5.29 to sell at N1,607.58/€1 versus N1,612.87/€1.
At the GTBank FX counter, the Nigerian Naira gained N4 against the Dollar to settle at N1,384/$1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,389/$1, and at the parallel market, it improved by N5 to trade at N1,385/$1 compared with the N1,390/$1 it was transacted a day earlier.
Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with a buffer to support the Naira, continued their downward trend, declining to $48.36 billion as of April 29, 2026, according to data.
Market activity weakened sharply, with the NAFEM recording zero deals on Thursday, down from 393 deals on Wednesday. Total turnover in the official window also dropped from $802.44 million to zero, underscoring a severe liquidity squeeze.
Thursday’s price formation was driven entirely by the interbank segment, where turnover also fell significantly to $58.03 million from $249.91 million, suggesting that liquidity pressures extended across the broader FX market.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices were up amid looming US inflation data, while high oil prices and rising bond yields weigh on risk assets.
The appreciation faces headwinds in the form of US March PCE inflation, which lands as oil prices keep pressure on risk assets, as well as reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has kept energy markets fragile.
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 1.8 per cent to trade at $0.1082, Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated to $76,987.59, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.2 per cent to $2,276.11, Cardano (ADA) added 1.1 per cent to close at $0.2484, and Solana (SOL) soared by 1.1 per cent to $83.89.
Further, TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3224, Ripple (XRP) jumped 0.4 per cent to $1.37, and Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 0.2 per cent to $616.67, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
A further 2.14 per cent leap was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Thursday, the last trading session of April 2026.
This was supported by strong buying pressure despite selling pressure in the consumer goods and insurance sectors, which lost 0.14 per cent and 0.07 per cent, respectively.
It was observed that the energy index went up by 4.78 per cent, the industrial goods space appreciated by 4.13 per cent, and the banking segment rose by 0.52 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 5,072.22 points to settle at 242,277.81 points versus the 237,205.59 points on Wednesday, and the market capitalisation jumped N3.266 trillion to N155.994 trillion from N152.728 trillion.
FTN Cocoa, BUA Cement, CAP, UAC Nigeria, and Zichis soared by 10.00 per cent each to quote at N5.50, N418.00, N145.20, N181.50, and N21.78, respectively.
On the flip side, Aluminium Extrusion lost 9.95 per cent to trade at N9.50, Royal Exchange declined by 9.93 per cent to N1.36, Legend Internet slipped by 9.32 per cent to N5.35, Austin Laz dropped 9.12 per cent to N3.39, and Neimeth went down by 7.26 per cent to N8.30.
Business Post reports that there were 46 price gainers and 41 price losers on Customs Street during the session, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
A total of 1.9 billion shares valued at N104.3 billion were traded in 92,353 deals yesterday compared with the 1.3 billion shares worth N69.1 billion transacted in 83,445 deals at midweek, indicating a surge in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 46.15 per cent, 50.94 per cent, and 10.68 per cent, respectively.
At the close of business, Access Holdings led the activity chart with 935.0 million units sold for N24.3 billion, Lasaco Assurance traded 90.2 million units valued at N175.2 million, UBA exchanged 89.0 million units worth N3.9 billion, Wema Bank transacted 68.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, and GTCO sold 54.7 million units valued at N7.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil fell below $115 after hitting a four-year high of more than $126 a barrel earlier on Thursday on concerns the US-Iran war could disrupt the wider global economy.
Data showed that Brent crude futures lost $4.02 or 3.41 per cent to trade at $114.01 per barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gave up $1.81 or 1.69 per cent to trade at $105.07 per barrel.
According to market analysts, the drop in prices from intraday highs did not have an obvious catalyst and did not look related to a specific development, but reflected the heightened volatility in the market since the Iran war started.
Others noted the retreat in US Dollar strength on Thursday also put downward pressure on oil.
Japan’s Yen surged 3 per cent, the most in a day in over three years, on Thursday, following stark warnings from Japanese officials that intervention to prop up the currency, as well as action in other markets, including energy, could be imminent.
The jump in the Japanese currency puts the US currency down, on track for its biggest one-day drop against the Yen since last August.
US President Donald Trump is slated to receive a briefing on plans for a series of fresh military strikes on Iran to compel it to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Iran said it would respond with “long and painful strikes” on US positions if the US renewed attacks, and also reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
This complicates US plans for a coalition to reopen the waterway, which accounts for about 20 per cent of crude and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) flows.
Since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28, the price of Brent and WTI has risen by around 90 per cent due to the effective closure of the strait.
The oil price gains risk a renewed spike in global inflation and higher pump prices across the world. Oil, gas, and their refined byproducts are critical for fuelling cars, trucks and planes, powering homes and industry and producing plastics and fertilisers.
President Trump called a ceasefire in the war earlier this month, but also imposed a US blockade on Iranian ports.
Talks to resolve the conflict, which has killed thousands and caused what the International Energy Agency (EIA) says is the world’s biggest oil disruption ever, have deadlocked.
Traders worry as the US insists on discussing Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons programme and Iran demands some control over the strait and reparations for damage from the war.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said on Tuesday it would exit the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after nearly 60 years as a member.
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