Economy
Escalation of Israel-Hamas Conflict Can Drive Oil to $157—World Bank
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has warned that oil prices could soar to a record high of $157 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to a repeat of the full-scale conflict in the Middle East witnessed 50 years ago.
The Bretton-Wood institution in the first major assessment of the economic risks of an escalation of the war beyond Gaza’s borders on Monday said there was a risk of the cost of crude entering “uncharted waters”.
Recall that in 1973, Arab members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the US decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations.
The oil embargo led to a sudden fourfold increase in the cost of crude, ushering in higher inflation and rising unemployment that brought the long postwar boom in the global economy to an end.
With recent developments, the global lender sketched three paths that oil prices could take following the conflict. These are “small disruption”, “medium disruption”, or “large disruption”.
According to the World Bank, a “large disruption” scenario comparable to the Arab oil boycott of the West in 1973 would create supply shortages of up to 75 per cent that would lead to the price of a barrel of oil increasing from about $90 to between $140 and $157.
A “medium disruption” scenario – roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003 – where the global oil supply would be reduced by 3 million to 5 million barrels a day could cause a rise by 21 per cent to 35 per cent to between $109 and $121 a barrel.
In the “small disruption” scenario, in which the global oil supply would be reduced by 500,000 to 2 million barrels a day, roughly equivalent to the reduction seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011, the oil price would rise to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel.
In its assessment, the bank said the Israel-Hamas war so far had little impact on commodity prices.
Oil prices had risen by just about 6 per cent, but agricultural commodities, industrial metals and other commodities had “barely budged”, it said.
Under the World Bank’s baseline forecast, oil prices will average $90 a barrel in the current quarter before declining to an average of $81 a barrel next year as global economic growth slows.
“The outlook for commodity prices would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate,” the lender added.
It also called on policymakers to be vigilant because “If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades – not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East.”
The bank said the shock to the global economy would not be confined to energy costs but would also result in hundreds of millions going hungry as a result of higher food prices.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria slightly surpassed its quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in July 2026.
In the month under review, the country produced about 1.57 million barrels of crude oil per day.
It was the third consecutive month Africa’s largest oil-producing nation was meeting its monthly quota, set to stabilise the price of the commodity on the global market by the oil cartel.
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Wednesday showed that the 1.5 million barrels per day ceiling for Nigeria was surpassed last month.
The agency disclosed in a statement today that the country produced 1.505mbpd of crude oil and 0.17mbpd of condensate, bringing the combined daily production to 1.67mbpd.
In the month under review, the daily peak production of crude oil and condensate was 1.78mbpd, while the lowest daily production was 1.57mbpd.
Although Nigeria met its OPEC quota in the month of July, the statistics show that on a month-on-month basis, production fell by 4 per cent.
This was attributed to the decline in production due to operational challenges experienced at the Erha and Akpo fields, which impacted crude oil output during the period under review.
These disruptions constrained production volumes and contributed significantly to the overall reduction in national crude oil output.
Despite the challenges, production operations across most other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators implementing measures aimed at maintaining production efficiency and minimising the impact of operational constraints, NUPRC stated.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The over 9 billion shares of Lasaco Assurance Plc issued to shareholders of the company via a rights issue have been listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The equities were brought to Customs Street on Wednesday by the organisation, increasing its total issued and fully paid-up share capital.
Lasaco Assurance, which scaled the recapitalisation hurdle of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) in July 2026, raised fresh capital from the capital market to shore up its capital base.
The underwriting firm got about N18.5 billion from the rights issue, which involved the issuance of 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares at a unit price of N2.00.
The exercise was on the basis of five new ordinary shares for every existing six ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Friday, February 20, 2026.
Confirming the listing of the additional stocks of Lasaco Assurance today, the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of NGX RegCo, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, announced in a circular that, “Trading licence holders are hereby notified that an additional 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Lasaco Assurance Plc were today, Wednesday, August 12, 2026, listed on the daily official list of Nigerian Exchange Limited.
“The additional shares arose from the company’s rights issue of 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of five new ordinary shares for every existing six ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Friday, February 20, 2026.
“With the listing of the additional 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares, the total issued and fully paid-up share capital of Lasaco Assurance Plc has now increased from 11,083,585,855 to 20,319,907,401 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Insurers Association (NIA) has said the successful recapitalisation of the insurance industry will strengthen the sector’s ability to support financial stability and economic growth.
NIA Chairman, Mrs Ebelechukwu Nwachukwu, said a well-capitalised insurance industry would be better positioned to meet its obligations promptly, underwrite complex and large-scale risks and serve as a dependable pillar of the Nigerian economy.
She made the remarks while commending the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for its structured implementation of the new minimum capital requirements under the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.
Mrs Nwachukwu said NAICOM’s clear guidelines, systematic verification process, defined timelines and rigorous supervision had provided operators with a credible framework for navigating the recapitalisation exercise.
She described the outcome as a major milestone for the industry and congratulated the 43 insurance and reinsurance companies that have successfully met the prescribed minimum capital requirements.
According to her, the exercise represents “a major win not just for regulators and operators, but for policyholders, investors and the wider Nigerian economy.”
Mrs Nwachukwu said the association would continue to work with NAICOM and other stakeholders to consolidate the gains of the exercise, with emphasis on sustainable industry growth, stronger market conduct and improved consumer confidence.
The official also expressed solidarity with the eight companies still undergoing final verification and regulatory review, urging them to remain confident as NAICOM completes the process within the 14-day review period.
The NIA chairman assured policyholders and the wider business community that the insurance industry would emerge from the recapitalisation exercise stronger, more resilient and better positioned to contribute to Nigeria’s economic development.
