Economy
Index Reports Six Quarter High in Business Confidence
By Dipo Olowookere
A resurgence in economic confidence was experienced by credit professionals in the final quarter of 2016, according to the UK’s latest Credit Managers’ Index (CMI). Yet bad debt remains a risk with only 13% of credit managers expecting a decline in 2017.
Full results from the quarterly barometer of the Chartered Institute of Credit Management (CICM) have now been released; the CMI’s headline Index closed up 0.5 points to 59.8, ending a successive three-quarter fall. It is the highest result since Q2 2015 and only the fifth time in the CMI’s seven-year history it has climbed above 59.0.
The Index measures confidence in manufacturing (up 6.2 points to 61.2) and services (up 3.6 points to 59.0), in what Philip King, Chief Executive of the CICM, highlights as rising optimism from credit professionals across the board:
“What is also good to see is the Index is back on its historical tracking of the FTSE All Share, following the brief and negative divergence in Q3 2016,” he says.
The CMI retracted by 1.4% in Q3 while the All Share rose 2.3%. “This compares to the CMI’s 8.1% and All Share’s 3.1% rises in Q4,” Mr King adds. “Which means the CMI has easily mitigated its Q3 losses, and is now back on track with one of the UK’s most important measures of economic confidence.”
The CMI, sponsored by trade credit risk management experts Tinubu Square, is important because it gauges nationwide levels of credit being sought and granted by credit managers across the UK and acts as a primary indicator of actual levels of business being conducted. It consistently maps the FTSE All Share Index and the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator.
The survey also found 32% of respondents saw bad debts increase across 2016, with only 13% expecting bad debts to drop in 2017. 20% expect debts to continue rising, but most worryingly a further 28% remain unsure about how debts will change, and are budgeting for rises.
Michael Feldwick, Head of Tinubu Square UK, said: “The findings reflect conversations we are having across sectors, where there is a general concern about debt continuing to rise. Some seem more concerned than others however, such as the construction industry. It particular highlights the need to monitor and manage trade credit risks closely, some customers are telling us that trade credit insurers appear to be slowly becoming more cautious as their loss ratio and cost ratio increases.”
Further analysis of the results show regional differentiation – Wales, Northern Ireland and Yorkshire and Humber have all dipped below a 52-point threshold; six regions including the North West, South West and East Midlands are reporting scores of over 60.0 points; and London (which fell to a concerning 50.2 in Q3 2016) has risen over the threshold to close at 59.0.
“It is very important for London as the driving force of the UKs economy to display positive results, and it is good news to see that its decrease was only short-term,” Mr King adds.
Of the 19 sectors measured in the CMI, 16 have a CMI score above the 52-point threshold. Only Personal and Household Goods (44.0), Automobiles and Parts (45.0) and Banks (47.0) reported lower than hoped-for results.
“Meanwhile, volatility levels are continuing to stabilise and that may signal a positive future in terms of economic confidence and the outlook for growth,” Mr King continues. “But the uncertain geo-political circumstances surrounding the new US administration and Brexit have the ability to do lasting damage to our economic indicators.”
The CMI is a diffusion Index, producing scores of between one and 100 (typically in a range of 40 – 60). Ten equally weighted factors are included – three favourable and seven unfavourable and the Index is calculated on a simple average of the 10 factors.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The crude oil market was mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed revived expectations of a de-escalation in United States-Iran hostilities.
Brent crude futures gained 9 cents or 0.11 per cent to trade at $79.45 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 55 cents or 0.73 per cent to $75.22 per barrel.
US President Donald Trump previously said there was an “all-day negotiation” with Iran, characterizing the talks positively while also threatening to hit the country “really hard” if a deal was not reached.
Meanwhile, Iran denied that peace talks were under way. Its Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz.
It was reported that the decision was awaiting a decision from Iran’s supreme leader after Iranian and Omani negotiators completed a draft agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the main export route for Persian Gulf oil and LNG. Also, a joint announcement is being finalized.
The proposed temporary arrangement would direct ships entering the Persian Gulf through waters controlled by Iran, while vessels leaving the Gulf would use a route administered by Oman. The agreement would revive parts of the US-Iran memorandum reached in June, which collapsed after attacks on shipping resumed.
Reuters reported that Iran is seeking payments equivalent to between 5 per cent and 7 per cent of cargo value, while Oman has proposed a 3 per cent charge.
However, the Trump administration has rejected any arrangement requiring ships to pay Iran for passage through what was an open international waterway before the war.
Crude stockpiles rose by 2.5 million barrels to 407 million barrels last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. Previously, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US rose by 2.69 million barrels in the week ending July 30.
Apart from disruption in the Gulf, a surge in attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ships, ports and export terminals in the Black Sea is disrupting global commodity supplies.
Disruption has spread to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main export route for Kazakh crude oil, which has repeatedly suspended operations this week because of safety concerns and a lack of tankers.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Between $30 billion and $50 billion in investments are anticipated from 22 major offshore projects by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) from now till 2030.
Speaking at the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE 2026) in Lagos on Wednesday, the chief executive of NUPRC, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said since 2022, successive licensing rounds have opened access to some of Nigeria’s most prospective oil and gas acreages.
She made reference to the recent 2025 Licensing Round where 31 companies emerged successful bidders for 37 oil and gas blocks after progressing through a robust, data-driven and technology enabled evaluation process.
Mrs Eyesan said the 2026 Licensing Round, which is set to commence soon, is showing greater promise thanks to the transparency that has characterised licensing rounds.
“With preparations already underway for the 2026 Licensing Round, Nigeria is demonstrating that investment certainty is no longer an aspiration; it is becoming an enduring feature of our regulatory framework,” the NUPRC boss stated.
The agency’s chief, who was represented at the event by the Executive Commissioner for Development and Production, Mr Enorense Amadasu, the expected investments are expected to increase production, create jobs and strengthen energy security.
“Since 2024, the NUPRC has approved over $57 billion in Field Development Plan (FDPs) some of which have translated to Final Investment Decisions. Twenty-two major offshore projects are expected between 2026 and 2030 with an estimated investment potential of $30–50 billion.
“Beyond increasing production, these investments will create jobs, expand infrastructure, strengthen energy security and reinforce Nigeria’s position as a leading global upstream investment destination,” she stated.
She noted that besides developing its proven reserves, Nigeria is building a resilient energy future by maintaining a strong pipeline of exploration opportunities that will sustain long-term growth and energy security.
Mrs Eyesan said infrastructure deficit continues to undermine Africa’s promising potential, stating that, Nigeria is, however, addressing this challenge through a series of strategies.
“We are expanding gas gathering systems, processing facilities, pipelines and export infrastructure, while promoting shared facilities, open access, third party access and field tiebacks to reduce costs, speed up project delivery, maximise the use of existing infrastructure and help bring stranded oil and gas resources into production,” the NUPRC boss stated.
Besides these infrastructure strategies, Mrs Eyesan said stronger collaboration among government, security agencies, operators, host communities and private partners; as well as the Host Community Development Trust had led to an improvement in the protection of critical energy assets which had ultimately made Nigeria’s upstream sector more resilient.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pathway Advisors Limited has launched a N25 billion Series 3 Commercial Paper (CP) issuance for Zeenab Foods Limited, with proceeds expected to strengthen the agro-processing company’s working capital and support its short-term funding needs.
The offer, which is being issued under Zeenab Foods’ N50 billion Commercial Paper Programme, opened for subscription on August 4 and will close on August 10, 2026. Issue and settlement are scheduled for August 11, while the commercial paper will mature on August 10, 2027.
Acting as the lead arranger and issuing house, Pathway Advisors structured the 364-day instrument at a discount rate of 19.69 per cent, translating to an effective yield of 24.50 per cent. The offer has a minimum subscription of N5 million, with additional investments accepted in multiples of N1,000.
Founded in 2011, Zeenab Foods operates across rice milling, the export of processed agricultural commodities, and the supply of food products to international donor organisations, including the United Nations World Food Programme (UN-WFP). The company runs processing facilities in Abuja and Kano, while maintaining export liaison offices in Changsha, Guangzhou and Shanghai in China, as well as Dubai in the United Arab Emirates.
The company has received strong investment-grade ratings from leading credit rating agencies. Agusto & Co. assigned it a short-term rating of A1 and a long-term rating of A-, while DataPro Limited rated it A1 for the short term and A+ for the long term.
According to the transaction details, Zeenab Foods has maintained a strong repayment record under both its previous N20 billion Commercial Paper Programme and the current N50 billion programme. Since 2024, the company has redeemed multiple commercial paper series ahead of maturity, reinforcing investor confidence in its financial position.
The firm has also continued to expand its production capacity to meet growing demand. Its rice milling facility now has an installed capacity of 180 metric tonnes per day following a 50 per cent expansion completed in 2025, with average capacity utilisation standing at about 85 per cent.
Zeenab Foods has also positioned itself to benefit from policy changes in Nigeria’s agricultural sector. Following the federal government’s ban on raw shea nut exports in August 2025, the company leased a shea butter processing facility in Ogun State with an initial capacity of 100 metric tonnes per day. It plans to expand the facility to 300 metric tonnes daily while diversifying into soya oil processing, edible oil refining and cocoa butter production.
The organisation also expects continued growth from its long-standing relationship with the UN-WFP, supported by sustained humanitarian food demand across the Sahel region.
Pathway Advisors Limited, a Securities and Exchange Commission-regulated issuing house and financial advisory firm, said it remains focused on facilitating access to capital for businesses and supporting sustainable economic growth across key sectors of the Nigerian economy through its capital-raising and advisory services.
