Economy
MAN Forecasts Challenging Environment for Manufacturers in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said that the outlook for the Nigerian manufacturing sector in 2024 would be challenging, adding that it will only be eased by some positive policy directions.
According to the MAN Director General, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the year would be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter of 2023.
He said the envisaged recovery was highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth driven by export-focused and offensive trade strategies.
This, he said, would promote resilience, and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year, noting that a quick examination of the trajectory of manufacturing globally portrayed a struggling sector challenged by key macroeconomic variables and externalities, leading to dwindling growth.
This, he said, was evidenced by the manufacturing growth rates in China, the United States of America, and South Africa with Nigeria not exempted, averring that the manufacturing growth rate nosedived to 0.48 per cent in Q3 2023 as against 2.4 per cent in 2021.
“Drawing from likely economic dynamics and in the light of the aforementioned, the projections for the manufacturing sector in 2024 are as follows— there will be clarity on the actual and specific policy direction and priority areas of the current administration, especially around deepening industrialisation and we look forward to engaging government in this regard.
“In 2024, sectoral real growth is expected to hit about 3.2 per cent; contribution to the economy will most likely exceed 10 per cent and the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index is predicted to rise above 55 points threshold by the end of Q4 2023.
“Average capacity utilisation will still hover around the 50 per cent threshold as the foreign exchange related challenges and high inflation rate limiting manufacturing performance may linger until mid-year.
“The sector may experience a meagre improvement in manufacturing output as foreign exchange and interest rates related challenges are expected to subside from the third quarter,” he said.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir added that higher manufacturing output was envisaged from the beginning of the third quarter of the year.
This, he explained, would happen as the government disburses capital provisions of the budget to abandoned, ongoing and new capital projects with expected special preference for locally made products.
He said the ongoing concessions of seaports, airports, and roads may also provide opportunities for the cement sub-sector and contribute to infrastructure upgrades needed to enhance manufacturing productivity.
He said the results of the emerging upward surge in global oil prices, domestic oil and gas production, local refining of petroleum products and projected gains of exchange rate unification would promote stability in the foreign exchange market.
This, he stated, would impact manufacturing positively from the second half of the year lead to a reduction in the pressure on demand for foreign exchange and improve the inflow of export proceeds from oil and gas.
“We should expect dynamic implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which will increase private investment in renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency and improve electricity supply to the manufacturing sector.
“The improved electricity supply will ameliorate the issue of inadequacy, reduce the disruptions occasioned by frequent outages and in turn improve energy security.
“In broad terms, the year 2024 may start on a tough note for manufacturing but may end with some measured improvements because the envisaged policy reforms, improved commitment to domestic production and general positive outlook seem favourable for the sector,” he said.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Cuts PMS Gantry Price by N50 to N1,125 Per Litre
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has been cut down by N50 to N1,125 per litre from N1,175 per litre by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery confirmed this development via a statement on Thursday to newsmen.
Dangote Refinery described this downward review of the product’s price as a reflection of its ongoing commitment to ensuring price stability, improving affordability, and supporting Nigeria’s energy security objectives.
It further said it underscores its responsiveness to prevailing market conditions and its efforts to pass on cost efficiencies to downstream partners and consumers.
In the statement, the company said it remains focused on its broader mission of contributing to economic growth, enhancing fuel availability, and fostering a more competitive and sustainable petroleum sector in Nigeria.
Economy
Crude Oil Jumps Over 2% After Vessel Hit Near Strait of Hormuz
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday after a cargo vessel was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, putting an evacuation effort for ships from the key Strait of Hormuz on hold.
Brent futures gained $1.52 or 2.1 per cent to settle at $75.26 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude chalked up $1.58 or 2.3 per cent to trade at $71.92 per barrel.
The flow of oil and gas has been disrupted since the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, but the agreement between the US and Iran to end the war has allowed the resumption of traffic through the crucial strait.
The United Nations International Maritime Organisation on Thursday paused its effort to shepherd ships and seafarers through the strait after the cargo ship reported a suspected attack. This reawakened concerns about the worldwide flow of oil.
Reuters reported that Iran fired on the cargo ship as it attempted to pass through the strait after Iranian authorities said the security of vessels passing outside designated Hormuz routes is not guaranteed.
Previously, crude shipments through the strait rose to their highest since the start of the war on Wednesday. Before the war, about 20 per cent of world oil supplies passed through the Strait, located between Iran and Oman.
Key fuel oil producers Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have moved to increase shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are set to jump by 20 per cent from May to about 508,000 barrels per day in June.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Gulf allies on Thursday that any deal with Iran would take their interests into account, as he wrapped up a Middle East trip aimed at winning over regional partners with deep reservations about the preliminary accord.
The US and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said a lasting peace would mean addressing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones and support for proxy groups. However, the US also threatened that if Iran threatens or blocks ships in the strait, there will be a “problem.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran estimates charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait, which would bring in $40 billion a year for the states involved.
In Venezuela, thousands were feared dead after two powerful earthquakes affected the capital, Caracas. The quakes could slow the increase in Venezuelan oil exports expected by US President Donald Trump’s administration after it captured Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in January.
Economy
Distributors Kick Against Plans by Lagos to Tackle Egg Glut
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Eggs Sellers and Distributors Association of Nigeria (ESDAN) has kicked against the proposed plan involving the production of egg powder to tackle the glut of eggs.
The National President of ESDAN, Mrs Olaide Graham, made the position clear in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) this week.
Egg glut occurs when egg production exceeds consumer demand, resulting in a surplus that often forces farmers to sell at reduced prices to avoid spoilage.
The Lagos State Government recently announced plans to establish an egg powder processing facility as part of efforts to address seasonal egg glut in the poultry sector.
Mrs Graham described the initiative as a welcome development but maintained that it would not address the fundamental challenges facing the industry.
“The establishment of an egg powder factory in Lagos to address the egg glut situation will have a positive impact if it is properly implemented and the product meets market standards.
“It could help reduce waste and, to some extent, stabilise prices temporarily.
“However, egg powder may not be widely accepted as a substitute for fresh eggs in this part of the country because of differences in taste, texture and consumer perception.
“Many consumers still regard fresh eggs as more nutritious,” she said.
According to her, the major issue is identifying and addressing the root causes of the egg glut rather than focusing solely on processing surplus eggs.
“We have a population of over 200 million people. Why should there be an egg glut?
“We need to examine what farmers, distributors and other stakeholders are not getting right and provide the necessary support.
“Egg powder is not the cure for egg glut in Nigeria. Stakeholders should come together to identify sustainable solutions,” she said.
Mrs Graham noted that egg powder could serve as a raw material for the production of other goods, but should not be viewed as a long-term remedy for the challenge.
She emphasised the need for improved distribution systems across the egg value chain.
“Effective distribution can go a long way in addressing the problem.
“We should remember that Lagos distributes not only eggs produced within the state but also eggs brought in from other parts of the country.
“In every challenge, there is always a solution, but egg powder is not the major solution to egg glut,” she said.
The ESDAN president also dismissed concerns that egg distributors could be negatively affected by the proposed factory.
“Distributors have nothing to fear because Nigerians are accustomed to consuming fresh eggs.
“The number of consumers who will continue to prefer fresh eggs will still be higher.
“Even if egg powder production affects access to fresh eggs, there will still be ways to address that challenge.“If the purpose of producing egg powder is to reduce glut, then that is why distributors have joined the conversation,” she said, according to the news agency.
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