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MAN Forecasts Challenging Environment for Manufacturers in 2024

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steel manufacturers

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said that the outlook for the Nigerian manufacturing sector in 2024 would be challenging, adding that it will only be eased by some positive policy directions.

According to the MAN Director General, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the year would be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter of 2023.

He said the envisaged recovery was highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth driven by export-focused and offensive trade strategies.

This, he said, would promote resilience, and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year, noting that a quick examination of the trajectory of manufacturing globally portrayed a struggling sector challenged by key macroeconomic variables and externalities, leading to dwindling growth.

This, he said, was evidenced by the manufacturing growth rates in China, the United States of America, and South Africa with Nigeria not exempted, averring that the manufacturing growth rate nosedived to 0.48 per cent in Q3 2023 as against 2.4 per cent in 2021.

“Drawing from likely economic dynamics and in the light of the aforementioned, the projections for the manufacturing sector in 2024 are as follows— there will be clarity on the actual and specific policy direction and priority areas of the current administration, especially around deepening industrialisation and we look forward to engaging government in this regard.

“In 2024, sectoral real growth is expected to hit about 3.2 per cent; contribution to the economy will most likely exceed 10 per cent and the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index is predicted to rise above 55 points threshold by the end of Q4 2023.

“Average capacity utilisation will still hover around the 50 per cent threshold as the foreign exchange related challenges and high inflation rate limiting manufacturing performance may linger until mid-year.

“The sector may experience a meagre improvement in manufacturing output as foreign exchange and interest rates related challenges are expected to subside from the third quarter,” he said.

Mr Ajayi-Kadir added that higher manufacturing output was envisaged from the beginning of the third quarter of the year.

This, he explained, would happen as the government disburses capital provisions of the budget to abandoned, ongoing and new capital projects with expected special preference for locally made products.

He said the ongoing concessions of seaports, airports, and roads may also provide opportunities for the cement sub-sector and contribute to infrastructure upgrades needed to enhance manufacturing productivity.

He said the results of the emerging upward surge in global oil prices, domestic oil and gas production, local refining of petroleum products and projected gains of exchange rate unification would promote stability in the foreign exchange market.

This, he stated, would impact manufacturing positively from the second half of the year lead to a reduction in the pressure on demand for foreign exchange and improve the inflow of export proceeds from oil and gas.

“We should expect dynamic implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which will increase private investment in renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency and improve electricity supply to the manufacturing sector.

“The improved electricity supply will ameliorate the issue of inadequacy, reduce the disruptions occasioned by frequent outages and in turn improve energy security.

“In broad terms, the year 2024 may start on a tough note for manufacturing but may end with some measured improvements because the envisaged policy reforms, improved commitment to domestic production and general positive outlook seem favourable for the sector,” he said.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Stronger Taxpayer Confidence, Others Should Determine Tax Reform Success—Tegbe

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four tax reform bills

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), Mr Joseph Tegbe, has tasked the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to measure the success of the new tax laws by higher voluntary compliance rates, lower administrative costs, fewer disputes, faster resolution cycles, and stronger taxpayer confidence.

Speaking at the 2026 Leadership Retreat of the agency, Mr Tegbe said, “Sustainable revenue performance is built on trust and efficiency, not enforcement intensity,” emphasising that the legitimacy and predictability of the system are more critical than punitive measures.

He underscored that the country’s tax reform journey is at a critical juncture where effective implementation will determine long-term fiscal outcomes.

The NTPIC chief stressed that tax policy must serve as an enabler of governance, and should embody simplicity, equity, predictability, and administrability at scale.

These principles, he explained, foster voluntary compliance, reduce operational friction, and strengthen investor confidence. He warned that ad-hoc adjustments or policy drift could undermine reform momentum, unsettle businesses, and deter investment, which thrives on predictable rules rather than shifting announcements. Structured sequencing, clear transition mechanisms, and continuous feedback between policymakers and administrators are therefore critical to sustaining reform credibility.

Mr Tegbe further argued that revenue reform cannot succeed in isolation. Achieving sustainable gains requires a whole-of-government approach, leveraging robust taxpayer identification systems, integrated financial data, efficient dispute resolution, and harmonised coordination across federal and sub-national levels. This approach, he said, reduces leakages, eliminates multiple taxation, and reinforces confidence in the system.

He noted that the passage of four new tax laws marks only the beginning of a broader reform agenda, describing the initiative as a systemic recalibration of Nigeria’s fiscal architecture, rather than a routine policy update.

He further asserted that the true measure of success will be the credibility of implementation, not the design of the laws themselves.

The NRS, he noted, functions as the nation’s “Revenue System Integrator,” with outcomes reflecting the strength of an interconnected ecosystem that encompasses policy clarity, enforcement consistency, digital infrastructure, dispute resolution efficiency, and intergovernmental coordination.

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Economy

NUPENG Seeks Clarity on New Oil, Gas Executive Order

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NUPENG

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Union of Natural and Gas Workers (NUPENG) has expressed deep concern over the Executive Order by President Bola Tinubu mandating the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to remit directly to the federation account.

In a statement signed by its president, Mr William Akporeha, over the weekend in Lagos, the union noted that the absence of detailed public engagement had naturally generated tension within the sector and heightened restiveness among workers, who are anxious to know how the new directive may affect their employment, welfare and job security, especially as it affects NNPC and other major operations in the oil and gas sector.

It pointed out that the industry remained the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to national revenue, foreign exchange earnings, and employment.

The NUPENG president affirmed that any policy shift, particularly one introduced through an Executive Order, has far-reaching consequences for regulatory frameworks, Investment decisions, operational standards, and labour relations within the sector.

According to him, “there is an urgent need for clarity on the scope and objectives of the Executive Order -What precise reforms or adjustments does it introduce? “Its implications for the Petroleum Industry Act -Does the Order amend, interpret, or expand existing provisions under PIA?

“Impact on workers and existing labour agreements-Will it affect job security, conditions of service, Collective Bargaining agreements or ongoing restructuring processes within the industry? “Effects on indigenous participation and local content development -How will it affect Nigerian companies and employment opportunities for citizens?”

He warned that without proper consultation and explanation, misinterpretations of the Executive Order may spread across the industry, potentially destabilising operations and undermining industrial harmony that stakeholders have worked hard to sustain.

“Though our union remains committed to constructive engagement, national development and stability of the oil and gas sector, however, we are duty-bound and constitutionally bound to protect the rights and welfare and job security of our members whose livelihoods depend on a clear, fair and predictable policy framework,” Mr Akporeha further stated.

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Economy

Uzoka-Anite Warns Against Inflation Risks from Oil, Gas Earnings Surge

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Nigeria’s Headline Inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Finance and chairman of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, has cautioned that a projected surge in oil and gas revenues following President Bola Tinubu’s latest executive order could trigger inflationary pressures and exchange rate volatility if not carefully managed.

She said that the recent executive order mandating the direct remittance of certain oil sector revenues to the federation account would provide regulatory clarity and significantly strengthen revenues accruing to the federation account, but warned that sudden liquidity injections into the economy may complicate monetary policy coordination with the Central Bank of Nigeria and erode the real value of allocations to federal, state and local governments.

While addressing members of FAAC in Abuja, Mrs Uzoka-Anite commended President Tinubu on the order, describing the development as a structural fiscal correction aimed at restoring constitutional discipline to petroleum revenue management and enhancing distributable income across the three tiers of government.

She said that the revenue outlook was improving due to ongoing structural reforms introduced by the Federal Government.

According to her, the newly implemented tax reform measures are broadening the tax base, improving compliance and enhancing administrative efficiency.

“Also, the executive order signed by Mr President on February 13 is reinforcing revenue discipline in the oil and gas sector and reducing leakages,” she said.

The minister said that the order suspends the 30 per cent allocation to the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF) and suspends the 30 per cent management fee on oil and gas profit payable to NNPC Limited.

She said that the order also directed that gas flare penalties be paid into the federation account, and mandated full remittance of petroleum revenues without unconstitutional deductions.

Mrs Uzoka-Anite said that the reform marks a shift from a retention-based oil revenue model to a gross remittance, federation-first model.

“The implications for FAAC are very significant; more oil and gas profit will now flow directly into the federation account.

“Gas flare penalties will become distributable revenue, and previously retained management fees will no longer reduce remittable inflows,” she said.

She said that the reforms were expected to result in higher monthly gross inflows into the federation account, and increased allocations to federal, state and local governments.

The minister said that a retrospective audit of the FFF, the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure, was due, and NNPC management fee deductions could lead to recoveries that may provide a one-off fiscal boost.

She welcomed the improved revenue outlook and cautioned against the risks associated with sudden liquidity injections.

“Experience shows that when revenues rise sharply and are distributed fully and immediately, large liquidity injections can increase inflationary pressures, complicate monetary management and reduce the real purchasing power of allocations,” she said.

She said that excess aggregate demand, exchange rate pressure, asset price distortions and inflationary risks could arise if increased inflows were not carefully managed.

Mrs Uzoka-Anite said that to mitigate such risks, she proposed phased disbursement of one-off recoveries.

She suggested that retrospective recoveries be staggered rather than injected into the economy in bulk, with a portion temporarily warehoused in a stabilisation buffer.

She also recommended strengthening the excess crude and stabilisation buffer mechanism to channel part of incremental inflows into a fiscal stabilisation window.

“This could offset revenue shortfalls in weaker months and reduce procyclicality in spending.

According to her, enhanced coordination with the CBN would be pursued to align fiscal injections with liquidity management tools and support open market operations where necessary.

Mrs Uzoka-Anite urged states and federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritise capital expenditure over recurrent expenditure.

She called for investment in infrastructure, agriculture, energy and other productive sectors, and avoid unsustainable wage or consumption spikes.

“Productive spending expands supply capacity and mitigates inflation,” she said.

She also announced plans to introduce monthly revenue transparency dashboards, production-to-remittance reconciliation reporting, and clear reporting of incremental inflows arising from tax reforms and the executive order.

The junior finance minister said that the reforms presented an opportunity to deepen fiscal federalism, enhance distributable revenue, restore constitutional clarity and strengthen trust among tiers of government.

She also advised that increased revenue must not translate into fiscal complacency.

“We must resist the temptation to treat incremental inflows as permanent windfalls. We should reduce debt burdens, clear arrears responsibly, build buffers and invest in growth-enhancing sectors,” she said.

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