Economy
MAN Forecasts Challenging Environment for Manufacturers in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said that the outlook for the Nigerian manufacturing sector in 2024 would be challenging, adding that it will only be eased by some positive policy directions.
According to the MAN Director General, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the year would be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter of 2023.
He said the envisaged recovery was highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth driven by export-focused and offensive trade strategies.
This, he said, would promote resilience, and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year, noting that a quick examination of the trajectory of manufacturing globally portrayed a struggling sector challenged by key macroeconomic variables and externalities, leading to dwindling growth.
This, he said, was evidenced by the manufacturing growth rates in China, the United States of America, and South Africa with Nigeria not exempted, averring that the manufacturing growth rate nosedived to 0.48 per cent in Q3 2023 as against 2.4 per cent in 2021.
“Drawing from likely economic dynamics and in the light of the aforementioned, the projections for the manufacturing sector in 2024 are as follows— there will be clarity on the actual and specific policy direction and priority areas of the current administration, especially around deepening industrialisation and we look forward to engaging government in this regard.
“In 2024, sectoral real growth is expected to hit about 3.2 per cent; contribution to the economy will most likely exceed 10 per cent and the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index is predicted to rise above 55 points threshold by the end of Q4 2023.
“Average capacity utilisation will still hover around the 50 per cent threshold as the foreign exchange related challenges and high inflation rate limiting manufacturing performance may linger until mid-year.
“The sector may experience a meagre improvement in manufacturing output as foreign exchange and interest rates related challenges are expected to subside from the third quarter,” he said.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir added that higher manufacturing output was envisaged from the beginning of the third quarter of the year.
This, he explained, would happen as the government disburses capital provisions of the budget to abandoned, ongoing and new capital projects with expected special preference for locally made products.
He said the ongoing concessions of seaports, airports, and roads may also provide opportunities for the cement sub-sector and contribute to infrastructure upgrades needed to enhance manufacturing productivity.
He said the results of the emerging upward surge in global oil prices, domestic oil and gas production, local refining of petroleum products and projected gains of exchange rate unification would promote stability in the foreign exchange market.
This, he stated, would impact manufacturing positively from the second half of the year lead to a reduction in the pressure on demand for foreign exchange and improve the inflow of export proceeds from oil and gas.
“We should expect dynamic implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which will increase private investment in renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency and improve electricity supply to the manufacturing sector.
“The improved electricity supply will ameliorate the issue of inadequacy, reduce the disruptions occasioned by frequent outages and in turn improve energy security.
“In broad terms, the year 2024 may start on a tough note for manufacturing but may end with some measured improvements because the envisaged policy reforms, improved commitment to domestic production and general positive outlook seem favourable for the sector,” he said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Two persons have been apprehended by the Rivers State Police Command in connection with the explosion that affected the Trans Niger Delta Pipeline operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) at the border of Kpor and Bodo communities.
On Monday night, the oil facility was affected by an inferno, which forced Shell to shut it down to prevent further damage.
It was gathered that the first was noticed during a routine night patrol by security operatives, who “promptly alerted SPDC management.”
The company initiated necessary safety protocols, including shutting down the affected pipeline, a statement from the Police Public Relations Officer for Rivers Command, Ms Grace Iringe-Koko, a Superintendent of Police (SP), said on Tuesday.
The police said the swift intervention brought “the situation is now under control, and there is no further threat to residents or the environment.”
According to her, the two accused persons were picked up after the commencement of “a thorough investigation to determine the cause of the fire.”
She said the suspects are answering questions to help the police “uncover any potential act of sabotage,” promising to ensure that perpetrators of criminal activities are identified and brought to justice.
“We urge residents to remain calm and vigilant, assuring them of our unwavering commitment to protecting lives and property. The Command will not relent in its efforts to rid the state of criminal elements and maintain peace and security for all.
“For any useful information regarding this incident or any suspicious activities, members of the public are encouraged to contact the nearest police station,” the statement said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Cooling inflation in Nigeria could encourage the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold interest rate steady again when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets in May.
On Monday, Nigeria’s annual inflation eased for a second straight month after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) overhauled the index for the first time in 16 years in January 2025.
The move was carried out to better reflect the inflation pressures facing households in Africa’s most-populous nation with the base year changed from 2009 to 2024.
According to the NBS, consumer prices rose 23.18 per cent in February by 8.52 per cent from the 31.70 per cent achieved in January 2024.
In the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the NBS said last month, the headline inflation slowed due to decline in the average prices of food items like yam tuber, potatoes, soya beans, flour of maize/cornmeal, cassava, bambara beans (dried), etc compared with the prices in the first month of this year.
Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency. This is slower compared to expected outcomes.
However, with further moderation, this could spur policymakers at the apex bank to pause rate hikes for yet another cycle.
The President Bola Tinubu administration is targeting a 15 per cent inflation level.
At its last meeting in February, the MPC held all rates across board with the headline monetary policy rate (MPR) retained at 27.50 per cent.
According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the asymmetric corridor was retained around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) at 50.00 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent. Also, the MPC retained the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.
The CBN had hiked interest rates by 875 basis points in the last year as Mr Cardoso favoured inflation targeting tools to fix skyrocketing cost of prices.
Market analysts noted that subsequent ease inflation in March and April could lead to even cuts but argued that pausing the rate will offer succour to businesses who have lamented the consistent hiking on their operations.
By Adedapo Adesanya
There was a 0.15 per cent appreciation at NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday March 17, with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increasing by 4.90 points to close at 3,368.64 points, in contrast to last Friday’s 3,363.74 points and the market capitalisation of the bourse rose by N2.83 billion to settle at N1.945 trillion compared with the preceding trading day’s N1.942 trillion.
Okitipupa Plc gained N7.66 during the session to close at N307.66 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N300.00 per unit, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc expanded by 78 Kobo to settle at N39.01 per share versus last Friday’s price of N38.23 per share, and Geo Fluids Plc grew by 6 Kobo to trade at N2.90 per unit, in contrast to the previous trading day’s N2.84 per unit.
On the flip side, Afriland Properties Plc lost N2.01 to close at N21.19 per share compared with its previous rate of N23.20 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded at the bourse went down by 55.8 per cent to 288,383 units from the 652,237 units recorded last Friday, the value of securities traded by investor depreciated by 45.3per cent to N18.2 million from the N33.1 million quoted at the preceding session, and the number of deals executed at the first session of the week shrank by 27 per cent to 27 deals from 37 deals.
When the market closed for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 13.0 million units valued at N505.1 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units sold for N357.0 million.
Also, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 69.9 million units sold for N23.7 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units valued at N357.0 million.
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