Economy
MAN Forecasts Challenging Environment for Manufacturers in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said that the outlook for the Nigerian manufacturing sector in 2024 would be challenging, adding that it will only be eased by some positive policy directions.
According to the MAN Director General, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the year would be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter of 2023.
He said the envisaged recovery was highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth driven by export-focused and offensive trade strategies.
This, he said, would promote resilience, and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year, noting that a quick examination of the trajectory of manufacturing globally portrayed a struggling sector challenged by key macroeconomic variables and externalities, leading to dwindling growth.
This, he said, was evidenced by the manufacturing growth rates in China, the United States of America, and South Africa with Nigeria not exempted, averring that the manufacturing growth rate nosedived to 0.48 per cent in Q3 2023 as against 2.4 per cent in 2021.
“Drawing from likely economic dynamics and in the light of the aforementioned, the projections for the manufacturing sector in 2024 are as follows— there will be clarity on the actual and specific policy direction and priority areas of the current administration, especially around deepening industrialisation and we look forward to engaging government in this regard.
“In 2024, sectoral real growth is expected to hit about 3.2 per cent; contribution to the economy will most likely exceed 10 per cent and the Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index is predicted to rise above 55 points threshold by the end of Q4 2023.
“Average capacity utilisation will still hover around the 50 per cent threshold as the foreign exchange related challenges and high inflation rate limiting manufacturing performance may linger until mid-year.
“The sector may experience a meagre improvement in manufacturing output as foreign exchange and interest rates related challenges are expected to subside from the third quarter,” he said.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir added that higher manufacturing output was envisaged from the beginning of the third quarter of the year.
This, he explained, would happen as the government disburses capital provisions of the budget to abandoned, ongoing and new capital projects with expected special preference for locally made products.
He said the ongoing concessions of seaports, airports, and roads may also provide opportunities for the cement sub-sector and contribute to infrastructure upgrades needed to enhance manufacturing productivity.
He said the results of the emerging upward surge in global oil prices, domestic oil and gas production, local refining of petroleum products and projected gains of exchange rate unification would promote stability in the foreign exchange market.
This, he stated, would impact manufacturing positively from the second half of the year lead to a reduction in the pressure on demand for foreign exchange and improve the inflow of export proceeds from oil and gas.
“We should expect dynamic implementation of the Electricity Act 2023, which will increase private investment in renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency and improve electricity supply to the manufacturing sector.
“The improved electricity supply will ameliorate the issue of inadequacy, reduce the disruptions occasioned by frequent outages and in turn improve energy security.
“In broad terms, the year 2024 may start on a tough note for manufacturing but may end with some measured improvements because the envisaged policy reforms, improved commitment to domestic production and general positive outlook seem favourable for the sector,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed higher by 1.41 per cent on Friday, May 15, supported by four securities on the platform.
During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc added N14.24 to its share price to sell for N159.00 per unit, in contrast to the previous day’s N144.76 per unit.
Further, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N1.34 to N72.34 per share from N71.00 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc improved its price by 4 Kobo to N2.94 per unit from N2.90 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to trade at 61 Kobo per share compared with Thursday’s closing price of 60 Kobo per share.
As a result, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rose by 58.20 points to 4,188.41 points from 4,130.21 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N34.82 billion to N2.506 trillion from N2.471 trillion on Thursday.
During the session, the volume of trades went up by 180.8 per cent to 1.2 million units from 417,349 units, and the value of transactions increased by 29.8 per cent to N29.8 million from N23.2 million, while the number of deals fell by 22.6 per cent to 24 deals from 31 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.8 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.9 million units valued at N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears overpowered the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday, sinking it further by 0.76 per cent when the closing gong was struck by 4 pm.
The nation’s flagship equity market was under selling pressure during the session, as investors booked profits after the shares witnessed price appreciation in the past trading sessions.
The energy sector was the most impacted, as it shed 4.43 per cent. The consumer goods index declined by 0.90 per cent, the banking counter decreased by 0.15 per cent, and the industrial goods sector lost 0.08 per cent, while the insurance counter gained 2.42 per cent, which was not enough to salvage the situation.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,912.19 points to 250,330.92 points from 252,243.11 points, and the market capitalisation moderated by 1.225 trillion to N160.444 trillion from N161.669 trillion.
Zichis was the worst-performing stock for the session after it gave up 9.97 per cent to close at N29.43, FTN Cocoa slipped by 9.95 per cent to N8.96, The Initiates slumped by 9.90 per cent to N32.30, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank tumbled by 9.88 per cent to N3.83, and International Energy Insurance dropped 9.71 per cent to trade at N2.79.
The best-performing stock was ABC Transport, which grew by 10.00 per cent to N6.27. May and Baker also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N47.30, SCOA Nigeria surged by 9.98 per cent to N33.05, Trans-Nationwide Express expanded by 9.97 per cent to N7.06, and DAAR Communications jumped 9.76 per cent to N2.25.
Yesterday, investors traded 1.1 billion shares worth N44.3 billion in 65,744 deals compared with the 1.0 billion shares valued at N41.6 billion transacted in 74,822 deals a day earlier. This indicated a dip in the number of deals by 12.13 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 10.00 per cent and 6.49 per cent, respectively.
Chams was the busiest equity for the day, with 328.5 million units sold for N1.1 billion. UBA traded 61.6 million units worth N2.7 billion, First Holdco transacted 58.7 million units valued at N4.2 billion, Secure Electronic Technology exchanged 51.9 million units worth N45.0 million, and Access Holdings traded 51.8 million units valued at N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The last trading session of the week at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) ended on a negative note for the Naira on Friday, May 15, as it lost N15 Kobo or 0.1 per cent against the Dollar to trade at N1,371.04/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,370.89/$1.
However, it further appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N20.77 to close at N1,830.61/£1 versus Thursday’s value of N1,851.38/£1, and gained N7.91 against the Euro to settle at N1,595.07/€1 versus N1,602.98/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the Naira lost N2 against the US Dollar during the session to sell at N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,381/$1, and at the black market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
The Naira is forecast to be broadly stable, supported by Dollar sales by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) amid steady, higher oil receipts, with the market settling into a balance.
Policy direction is also expected to give the market some boost as the CBN said the new edition of the FX market guidelines will deepen liquidity, improve transparency and strengthen confidence in the country’s foreign exchange market.
According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the update is due to changing global economic realities, domestic reforms and the need for a more coherent and forward-looking regulatory framework. According to him, the last edition of the FX manual was issued in 2018, making the latest review both timely and necessary.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market plunged into the red zone as rising bond yields hit risk assets across markets, while traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates again. Rising energy prices and resurging inflation could force central banks back into tightening mode.
Cardano (ADA) shrank by 4.4 per cent to $0.2557, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 3.7 per cent to $0.1104, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.41, Solana (SOL) crashed by 3.5 per cent to $87.81, and Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 3.4 per cent to $659.64.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 2.6 per cent to $78,547.49, Ethereum (ETH) lost 2.1 per cent to quote at $2,209.19, and TRON (TRX) tumbled by 0.7 per cent to $0.3509, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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