World
Mandela’s Heirs Lose Power in South Africa
By Alexander Braterskiy
South African authorities warn that if the opposition wins the parliamentary elections, the country may change course and leave the informal BRICS economic bloc, which includes Russia. The position of the African National Congress party, which has been in power since the collapse of apartheid, is indeed not the best, as shown by the municipal elections held earlier in the country. The opposition accuses the president of corruption and abuse of power, as well as an inability to cope with the country’s energy crisis. The ANC crisis occurred on the 30th anniversary of the first free elections in South Africa.
South African Ambassador to Russia Mzuvukile Jeff Maketuka believes that if the opposition wins the parliamentary elections this year, the country may leave the BRICS association. “If the official opposition wins the election, there will be a change in South Africa’s foreign policy position. There is a high probability that if this happens, South Africa will be withdrawn from BRICS,” the ambassador said in a recent interview with TASS.
Considering that the ambassador does not express his point of view, but expresses the position of the state, these words can be taken quite seriously. The ambassador even cited the example of Argentina, which, after the victory of populist Javier Millay in the elections, refused to join BRICS. However, if Argentina was just about to become a member of an informal but influential organization, then South Africa is a country that can be called one of the “founding fathers” of BRICS.
Elections in South Africa, which will be held at the end of May, could become a turning point for the country due to the possible loss of power of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party. “The African National Congress, of course, played its rightful role during apartheid and secured the political independence of South Africa. Thereafter, it continued to play a huge role after independence in nation-building and economic development. But from the days of Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC became deeply corrupt, signing opaque deals with outside players. There are serious doubts about the integrity of the ANC. This is opportunism at its worst, not the human rights they fight for. In essence, the ANC’s policy is focused on the global trend – business deals for money,” African publicist Kester Kenn Klomegah tells Finam.ru.
It is symbolic that, simultaneously with the elections, the country will mark 30 years since the collapse of the apartheid system, a rigid authoritarian system of rule by the white minority. The long-standing policy was associated with a system of racial discrimination in which members of the African population were considered second-class citizens.
“The Pretoria regime guards the interests of imperialism in Africa” – this phrase from the Soviet magazine “International Affairs” in 1985 is familiar to almost everyone who grew up in the USSR. At the same time, it must be said that in terms of attitude towards apartheid, the USSR was on the right side of history, unlike many Western countries that sold weapons to this country despite international sanctions. The USSR also actively contributed to the establishment of democracy in South Africa. The former head of TASS, Vitaly Ignatenko, recalls how he handed over a letter from South African President Frederik de Klerk to the head of the Soviet Foreign Ministry, Eduard Shevardnadze. The country’s authorities were looking for opportunities to establish relations with the USSR on the wave of democratization.
The head of the then-white minority regime, de Klerk, began “democratization from above” in the country. He was released from prison by the main enemy of the regime, Nelson Mandela, who had spent more than 26 years in prison. Mandela’s release marked the beginning of the end of apartheid: in 1994, the country held its first free elections, in which the ANC won a majority. The former opponents came to reconciliation through a special commission, at which members of the former regime asked for forgiveness from the victims. In 1994, Mandela was elected president of the country, leaving office in 1999.
Breach of contract
However, the euphoria of the first years of democratization and economic growth has passed. As economist Timothy Taylor writes on his Conversable Economist blog, the 1994 changes “created few winners.” “In this view, South Africa’s democracy was built on the simple assumption that a growing black elite and middle class could compromise with anyone, provided that each generation of black South Africans did better than the last,” the author writes.
All this continued for the first 15 years, and although “inequality remained enormous, the bottom quarter of the population was able to rise through the expansion of the welfare state. However, after the global crisis of 2008, the era of state capture under former President Jacob Zuma and COVID, this “founding treaty” was broken.”
According to the IMF, South Africa’s economy grew by 0.4% in 2023. The fund’s economists also note that one of the country’s main problems is the increased level of public debt, one of the highest among developing countries. As IMF experts write, it “limits the government’s ability to respond to shocks and meet growing social and development needs. Stabilizing the country’s debt and making room in the budget for targeted social spending and public investment will require cuts to the government’s wage bill and transfers to state-owned enterprises.”
The situation is also reflected in the purchasing power of South Africans. 44% of consumers spent less during the holiday season than the previous year, largely due to lower income, and only 30% spent more than they did in 2022, according to a Citibank survey.
Return to the same problems
The ANC party, which came to power after the fall of apartheid, still has a majority in parliament, but 30 years later its position is not the best. “The 2024 elections in South Africa may become a turning point in its history,” note the Institute of African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and remind that according to the results of municipal elections in 2021, the number of votes cast for the party decreased to 45.6%.
According to an October 2023 poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), only 45% of voters would vote for the ANC if elections were held tomorrow, down from 52% in March.
The sympathies of many South African voters are on the side of the opposition Democratic Alliance party, which takes liberal positions in contrast to the left-wing ANC. Its leader is white, South African citizen John Steenhuisen, but black politicians also occupy high positions in the party. The party is critical of Russia’s Northern Military District in Ukraine. During the upcoming visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2023, the party appealed to the South African court demanding the execution of the decision of the International Criminal Court. Earlier, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin and the Ombudsman for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova because they were allegedly involved in the illegal removal of Ukrainian children. As the South African Ambassador to Russia, Maketuka, noted in an interview with TASS, “the main opposition party is not a friend of Russia.”
Citizens of South Africa, 30 years later, are concerned about the same problems as before: inequality, poverty, unemployment, which has grown significantly among young Africans. According to government data cited by the Associated Press, unemployment covers more than 33% of the country’s residents. Among young people, the unemployment rate is 61%. Because of the current situation, many of the older generations even yearn for the times of apartheid, when they lived, albeit in fear, but with a roof over their heads.
However, there are still improvements in South Africa, writes Bloomberg, noting a drop in the unemployment rate to the lowest level since 2021. However, economists warn that this effect could fade as electricity supply problems worsen.
“Power outages, volatile commodity prices and challenging external conditions have contributed to the country’s weak economic growth performance,” the IMF report said.
The problem with the shortage of electricity in the country has been around for a long time – many substations have fallen into disrepair, they are more than 50 years old, and the available generating capacity is declining. The national energy company is forced to limit the supply of electricity to avoid a collapse. The country’s central bank says power woes cost the economy $13 billion in 2023 alone. Significant investments are needed to improve the situation.
Hope is pinned on China, which is actively represented in such sectors of the country’s economy as mining, telecommunications, and electronics manufacturing. According to government data, the total level of Chinese investment in the South African economy amounted to 200 billion rand, more than $10 billion.
The potential of South Africa also promises opportunities for Russian business, but so far there are few large Russian projects in this country. However, South Africa sees opportunities to strengthen cooperation with Russia against the backdrop of weakening ties between Moscow and the “collective West.” Moreover, among South Africa’s largest trading partners, besides China, are countries such as the USA, Germany, and the UK. A multi-vector policy for developing economic ties with the whole world, and albeit sometimes creakingly, but working democratic institutions, is also a legacy of the victory over apartheid and a reflection of Mandela’s words, which, however, were only partially realized. “Throughout my life, I have devoted myself entirely to the struggle for the African population. I fought against both white supremacy and black supremacy. I revered the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all citizens live in harmony and have equal opportunity.”
This article first appeared in Finam media and was reposted with the author’s permission.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Prime Minister of Canada, Mr Justin Trudeau, has resigned as the country’s ruling Liberal Party leader amid growing discontent in the North American country.
Mr Trudeau’s exit comes amid intensified political headwinds after his finance minister and closest political ally abruptly quit last month.
Mr Trudeau, who said he would remain in office until a new party leader is chosen, has faced growing calls from within his party to step down.
Polls show the Liberals are set to lose this year’s election to the Conservative opposition.
“As you all know, I’m a fighter,” Mr Trudeau said on Monday, but “it has become obvious to me with the internal battles that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard into the next election,” he stated.
His exit comes as Canada faces tariff threats from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump.
The Republican and his allies have repeatedly taunted Mr Trudeau in recent weeks, with Mr Trump mocking Canada as the “51st state” of the US.
Mr Trudeau also lamented that the Conservative leader, Mr Pierre Poilievre, is not the right vision for Canadians.
“Stopping the fight against climate change doesn’t make sense,” he tells reporters, adding that “attacking journalists” is “not what Canadians need in this moment”.
“We need an ambitious, optimistic view of the future, and Pierre Poilievre is not offering that.”
Mr Trudeau also said he was looking forward to the fight as progressives “stand up” for a vision for a better country “despite the tremendous pressures around the world to think smaller”.
He also clarified that he won’t be calling an election, saying the Canadian parliament has been “seized by obstruction, filibustering and a total lack of productivity” for the past several months.
“It’s time for a reset,” he said, adding that, “It’s time for the temperature to come down, for the people to have a fresh start in parliament, to be able to navigate through these complex times.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Start-ups in Africa raised $2.2 billion in 2024 in funding across equity, debt and grants, lower than the $2.9 billion raised in 2023 by 25 per cent amid a continued slowdown after a peak of $4.6 billion recorded in 2022.
The Big Deal noted that this excludes exits – which is when investors realise a return on their investments, most likely when the startup has become profitable or when there is a change of ownership.
The funding slowdown has occurred for consecutive years due to a wider global funding freeze impacted by macroeconomic developments and geopolitical events as well as a change in market offering trend leading to funding going elsewhere.
There have also been concerns about inflated valuations, business sustainability, and increased due diligence and scrutiny from investors.
For the review year, there wasn’t much funding activity as $800 million (36 per cent) of the total funding was computed in the first six months, while the remaining $1.4 billion came in the second half of 2024.
The $1.4 billion raised in H2 alone (+25 per cent YoY and +80 per cent compared to H1), made it the second-best semester since the beginning of the ‘funding winter’ in mid-2022.
This development was considerably driven by two deals in the fourth quarter of last year, which minted two fresh unicorns in the African startup space, in the form of Nigeria’s Moniepoint and South Africa’s Tyme Group.
This was the first such event since early 2023, as the companies joined the exclusive club that has MNT-Halan, Interswitch, Flutterwave, Chipper, OPay, Andela, and Wave as members.
Some of the raises reported include Yellow Card raising $33 million in October to fund its growth and expansion, JuicyWay raising $3 million pre-seed to facilitate affordable cross-border payments, as well as Seedstars Africa Ventures raising $42 million in its first-ever round to help pioneering African startups in climate, food systems, energy, and payments infrastructure sectors.
The data showed that a total of 188 ventures raised $1 million or more in 2024 (excluding exits), which is just 10 per cent less than in 2023 (169 ventures).
On the exit front, there were 22 exits made public last year (up 10 per cent) versus 20 in 2023.
By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh
For three working days, 9th –11th January 2025, in the Speke Resort Conference Centre in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, the African Union Commission (AUC) will host the Extraordinary Summit on the Post-Malabo Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). This Summit is supported by the Government of Uganda.
The event is organized jointly by the African Union Commission, Department of Agriculture Rural Development Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment (DARBE) and African Union Development Agency- New Partnership African Development (AUDA-NEPAD).
Dignitaries will deliver statements on the consideration of the Kampala Declaration, the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Ten-Year Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); the draft Statute of Africa Food Safety Agency; and the report on selection of African Union Centres of Excellence for Research and Training in Fisheries, Aquaculture, Aquatic Biodiversity Conservation and Ecosystems Management.
The Objectives of the Summit:
The convening of the extraordinary session of the Assembly is specifically to:
Endorse the draft Kampala CAADP Declaration. The draft declaration provides a vision for transforming Africa’s Agrifood Systems for the period: 2026-2035.
Endorse Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan: 2026-2035. This plan provides details on how to achieve the goals and targets in the draft Kampala CAADP Declaration.
Risk Management and Mitigation
The post-Malabo CAADP strategy will span ten years, from 2626 to 2035. Given the longtime horizon, many risks and uncertainties could affect the strategic positioning of the agri-food systems transformation agenda to deliver on its goals. There are external socioeconomic, environmental, and other shocks that might come up, which will demand that the strategy be agile enough to respond to such unforeseen developments. The strategy will therefore call for institutional adaptation to changes in a complex and rapidly changing context. Major risks and uncertainties will need to be identified and outlined together with their respective mitigation actions.
Key interventions to ensure better risk management include:
- Identify potential risks (e.g., political instability, climate change) and put in place mechanisms for dealing with or mitigating such risks
- Identify health crises, including pandemics or epidemics, early and develop mechanisms for minimizing negative impacts
- Identify and address gender inequalities or biases and restrictive social norms that may limit the access of women and youth to education, resources, and decision making processes thereby preventing them from fully participating in and benefiting from agricultural activities or initiatives
- Invest in durable peace because it is essential for building resilient agri-food systems (from the local to global levels) and affects agricultural production, food security, market access, investment, resilience, and social cohesion. Establishing and maintaining peace is critical for enabling long-lasting investment to unlock the full potential of Africa’s agri-food systems. The Kampala CAADP Declaration will need to emphasize establishing conflict-resolution mechanisms at the community level while strengthening local markets and value chains.
- Promote household insurance and other coping mechanisms that can help mitigate the impact of health shocks on livelihoods. These mechanisms will be key to enhancing the resilience of communities.
- Enhance public health surveillance systems to detect and respond to health threats, including of zoonotic origin. It will also be important to strengthen food safety measures to prevent health shocks related to foodborne diseases.
- Financial resources will be required to achieve the Kampala CAADP declaration’s resilience objectives. Specifically, households need access to credit, savings, and other financial instruments that help them weather economic shocks.
- Food price monitoring: It will be necessary to implement policies that stabilize food markets and prevent price volatility to ensure a steady supply of food and agricultural inputs.
- Capacities development of African governments to formulate resilience-focused policy measures is a critical step and a priority for the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan. Mainstreaming resilience-focused policies will trickle down to operational actions led by various stakeholders towards sustainable agri-food systems.
Background: The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has been crucial in driving agricultural transformation across Africa since its inception in 2003. The program is aimed at increasing food security and nutrition, reducing rural poverty, creating employment, and contributing to economic development while safeguarding the environment. CAADP aims for a 6% annual growth rate in the agricultural sector, with African Union member states allocating at least 10% of their budgets to agriculture.
Building on the Maputo Declaration (2003-2013), the 2014 Malabo CAADP Declaration renewed commitment to CAADP and established ambitious goals for 2025, including eradicating hunger, reducing malnutrition, tripling intra-African trade, and building resilience of livelihoods and production systems. The Malabo Declaration underscored the importance of mutual accountability through agricultural biennial reviews and recognized the essential role of related sectors like infrastructure and rural development. During the Thirty-Seventh Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly in February 2024, the Heads of State and Government expressed concern that the continent is not on track to meet the Malabo CAADP goals and targets by 2025. This has spurred a call for the development of a post-Malabo CAADP agenda to build resilient agri-food systems.
It is in this context that the An Extraordinary Summit of The African Union Assembly of Heads of States and Governments is scheduled for January 9th to 11th 2025 in Kampala, Uganda, to deliberate on the post-Malabo CAADP agenda to consider the draft Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan with its associated draft Kampala Declaration on Advancing Africa’s Inclusive Agrifood Systems Transformation for Sustainable Economic Growth and Shared Prosperity.
Format and Structure of the Summit: The Extraordinary Summit will start with a one-day meeting of the Ministers responsible for Agriculture, Rural Development Water and Environment on the 9th of January 2025, to be followed by Joint Session of the Ministers of Agriculture, Rural Development, Water and Environment together with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the 10th of January 2025.
The sessions will feature two presentations the: i) draft CAADP Ten-Year Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); ii) draft Kampala CAADP Declaration and both will be done in closed sessions. The Ministerial sessions will be structured to encourage inclusive and interactive conversations and dialogue among the Ministers, as well as between the Ministers and key strategic stakeholders. At the same time, it will enable the Ministers to review the strategic documents presented to them for their consideration and recommendations to the Assembly.
The Assembly of Heads of State and Government will convene on the 11th of January 2025 to endorse the: i) draft Ten-Year CAADP Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035); ii) draft Kampala CAADP Declaration.
Participants: The Extraordinary Summit on the CAADP Agenda will be attended by Heads of States and Government of the African Union Member State, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, PRCs, Ministers and Experts in-Charge of Agriculture (forestry, fisheries, crops and livestock), Rural Development, Water and Environment, RECs, Youth, Women, Non-State Actors, Media, Academia and Development Partners
African Union: The AU is guided by its vision of “An Integrated, Prosperous and Peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.” The African Union (AU) is a continental body consisting of the 55 member states that make up the countries of the African Continent. To ensure the realisation of its objectives and the attainment of the Pan African Vision of an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, Agenda 2063 was developed as a strategic framework for Africa’s long term socio-economic and integrative transformation. Agenda 2063 calls for greater collaboration and support for African led initiatives to ensure the achievement of the aspirations of African people.
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