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Shockwaves Over Trump’s Tariffs Reverberate Across Africa

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Vsevolod Sviridov High School of Economics

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

After taking office early 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has embarked on rewriting American foreign policy and plans to create a new geopolitical history under the “America First” doctrine.

The first three months have seen efforts to implement tariffs, which finally was splashed early April world-wide, including on a grand scale across Africa.

Seemingly, a blanket of tariffs is one of the standout actions of the new administration. Trump’s changing approach to the world, using geoeconomic tools, including tariffs has now sparked extensive debates and discussions.

Our media chief, Kestér Kenn Klomegâh, took a quick chance and asked Vsevolod Sviridov, deputy director at the High School of Economics (HSE) University Center for African Studies, a few questions pertaining to the aspects and implications of the U.S. tariffs for Africa. Here are the interview excerpts:

How would you interpret trade war between China and the United States?

There has been a global trend towards overspending over the last two decades. We have seen commodity boom, rise of  China with  its global  investments drive  and infrastructure development projects like BRI, excessive budget   spending by the OECD countries during COVID-19, etc. Now   countries are trying to optimize their spending. Considering that there is a certain trend towards deglobalization, external trade and deficits are the first to fall victims to this policy. While China almost halved its lending, US are trying to cut their ODA (see South Africa’s case) and adjust their trade deficit, which is fuelling their vast debt.

What could be the reasons for Donald Trump to extend that kind of economic policy, trade tariffs, to Africa?

His latest actions indicated that was possible. Trump has imposed increased tariffs on 14 African countries, including South   Africa (30%), Madagascar (47%), Tunisia (28%), Côte d’Ivoire (21%), and others. The primary selection criterion was the trade deficit with the U.S., though there are exceptions, such as Libya, which was left off the list despite a US$1 billion deficit. Additionally, seven more countries, including Egypt, Morocco, and Kenya, will face a base tariff of 10%, meaning that for Washington stable relations with them are more important.

The hardest-hit country will be Lesotho (50%), where the textile industry, heavily reliant on the U.S. market, will suffer. However, South Africa will bear the greatest overall impact, as it accounts for 70% of the U.S.-Africa trade deficit. In addition to the 30% base tariff, there will be an extra 25% duty on imported cars. This will affect factories operated by VW, Toyota, BMW, and other automakers, whose exports to the U.S. total US$2-3 billion annually. Angola, which had backed the Democratic Party, is also facing penalties (32%).

If these tariffs take effect as announced, they could lead to the collapse of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). However, the U.S. has not needed AGOA as much since the 2010s when it reduced dependence on African oil and gas. AGOA is set to expire in September 2025, and Trump’s actions make its renewal highly unlikely.

Trump has suggested that affected countries relocate production to the U.S., but this is difficult for African nations that mainly export raw materials. The new tariff preference system is expected to consider political and economic factors, making it less  predictable and less favourable for African suppliers. On the other  hand, this shift could encourage African countries to focus on regional markets and develop industries tailored to their domestic economies.

It could be excellent, from academic perspectives, to evaluate and assess the impact of AGOA in relation to Africa?

For Africa, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) meant establishment of several mainly export-oriented industries, like textile or car manufacturing. For instance, almost 2/3 of cars manufactured in RSA are being exported to US and Europe, with only 1/3 being sold on the local market and tiny part exported to other African countries (20k out of 600k prod).

They created employment opportunities for locals but never contributed to local markets and industries development, technology and knowledge sharing. Collapse of AGOA would mean additional opportunities for African industries and producers to target local and regional markets and develop industrialization strategies considering their national interests first (like Trump does).

Assessing the reactions over the tariffs world-wide, and talking about the future U.S.-Africa trade, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), what next for Africa?

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gives Africa a chance to embark on the hard and long journey of developing intraregional trade. Still this emerging market could be easily used by non-African suppliers as a tool to expand their presence, given that without protection nascent African industries are hardly able to compete in price and from time to time in quality. Especially now, when we are clearly seeing that the US are more interested in selling then buying. So any external aid and knowledge sharing assistance in this sphere should be received with caution.

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Pope Francis Dies at 88 After Protracted Illness

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pope francis

By Adedapo Adesanya

Pope Francis has died at the age of 88 after battling illness in the last couple of months.

The Vatican announced his demise on Monday morning, a day after Easter.

The pontiff, who was Bishop of Rome and head of the Catholic Church, became pope in 2013 after his predecessor, Benedict XVI resigned.

His death was announced by Cardinal Kevin Farrell in a statement released by the Vatican.

He said: “Dearest brothers and sisters, with deep sorrow I must announce the death of our Holy Father Francis.

“At 7.35am this morning, the Bishop of Rome, Francis, returned to the house of the Father. His entire life was dedicated to the service of the Lord and His Church.

“He taught us to live the values of the Gospel with fidelity, courage and universal love, especially in favour of the poorest and most marginalised.

“With immense gratitude for his example as a true disciple of the Lord Jesus, we commend the soul of Pope Francis to the infinite merciful love of the One and Triune God.”

The process for choosing a new pope – conclave – generally takes place between 15 and 20 days after the death of a pontiff.

Cardinals from around the world will gather in the Vatican and choose the new leader of the Catholic church.

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Russia’s Business Integration and Geopolitics of Multipolar World

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St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2025.

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Popularly referred to as Roscongress Foundation, St. Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF) has been its main cornerstone. The SPIEF has, all these years, focused on charting dignified internal economic integration utilizing available resources, both natural and human capital and combined with financial capability, and the possibility of increasing exportable goods to make a better world.

Since its establishment by a decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin, it has marked chronological achievements in boosting and strengthening corporate investor networking and entrepreneurship. It has also taken several key initiatives to foster potential entrepreneurship, leveraging the vast opportunities and supporting the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the Russian Federation.

According to reports, designing business brands, expand their objective reach to internal Russia’s landscape, and developing markets in neighboring Soviet republics and farther down in Africa, Asia, Europe, United States and Latin America. Ultimately, the SPIEF is unreservedly committed to providing the necessary support to enable both the state-to-state and the private sector to thrive. Building on the previous unerasable achievements, SPIEF’s mid-June 2025 edition will continue to serve as a solid platform, particularly for corporate networking, brainstorming and collaborating on strategies for potential business developments and their subsequent growth.

The architecture of the entire business programme on 18–21 June, has been fixed, and the theme designed as “Shared Values: The Foundation of Growth in a Multipolar World”, reflecting major shifts in international cooperation and the role of universal values in enabling sustainable economic development.

During the discussions, SPIEF participants will assess and review the effectiveness of measures taken, in the past years, to achieve Russia’s economic stability and progress, and concretely to determine further economic development trajectories in the Russian Federation and its footprints in different regions in the world amidst the current geopolitical challenges.

“We are witnessing tectonic shifts in the world. Not only is the economic map changing, but so too, in some sense, are the systems of economic activity and social relations in a number of countries and even intergovernmental blocs. The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is becoming more than just a space for dialogue and the generation of ideas and solutions. It is turning into a platform where new meanings and even new practices emerge that can shape the contours of the future.

“It’s important not only to observe these changes, but to drive them and set their direction. And all of this must happen through a format of meaningful, trust-based and collaborative dialogue,” said Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation and Executive Secretary of the SPIEF Organizing Committee.

The business programme has been structured around four key thematic pillars, each revealing a different dimension of global and national transformation. The central pillar, “Development Economics: Ensuring Growth”, reflects the logic of new economic thinking. It covers two major areas. “The Global Economy: A New Platform for Global Growth” focuses on the resilience of macroeconomic models, investment strategies, the expansion of logistics routes, and the development of new markets.

Discussions will address the future of international trade and supply chain transformation, the role of small and medium-sized businesses, and the regional and sector-specific dimensions of economic policy. Another major area is “The Russian Economy: A New Level of Growth”, which explores the opportunities and challenges facing the Russian economy amid global shifts.

Topics will include building an effective new-cycle economic model, strengthening the resilience of domestic industries, and developing priority sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and high technology. This track will also cover Russia’s innovation potential, its integration into global economic processes, investment attraction strategies, and the strengthening of the domestic market.

These themes are directly linked to technological sovereignty and innovation. The “Technology: Pursuing Leadership” pillar will focus on key directions in technological development from AI and automation to independence in microelectronics, new materials, energy, and cybersecurity. At the core is the formation of a sustainable and competitive technological base capable of ensuring the long-term development of the economy and society.

Technological advancement is impossible without a stable value system and strong cultural identity. That’s why the third pillar, “The Living Environment”, will address information sovereignty, cultural identity, social cohesion, and international humanitarian cooperation. Participants will explore how meaning is shaped and communicated in the media landscape, the mechanisms of trust in the digital age, and the role of tradition and historical memory.

This naturally leads into the fourth pillar, “The Individual in a New World”, which will focus on quality of life, health, education, family well-being, urban development, and personal fulfilment. Special attention will be paid to youth and women’s participation in the economy, new employment formats, and managing human capital as a key resource for the future.

The programme will also include sector-specific and international events that have already proven to be essential gathering points for the professional community. Among them are the SCO and BRICS Business Forums, the B20 Forum, the SME Forum, the Creative Industries Forum, and the ‘Ensuring Drug Security’ Russian Pharmaceutical Forum.

The traditional format of business dialogues with representatives from China, India, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, ASEAN, the CIS, and the EAEU will support the expansion of bilateral and multilateral ties, showcase investment projects, and explore industrial and scientific cooperation opportunities. Additional events will include business breakfasts with leaders of major companies, project presentations, public interviews, agreement signings, and an exhibition programme.

This year’s SPIEF will also host the General Assembly of the Organization of Asia-Pacific News Agencies (OANA), as well as the Day of the Future International Youth Economic Forum. The latter is supported by Friends for Leadership, an organization accredited by the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), which brings together young leaders, entrepreneurs and experts from over 100 countries. It was created by the Roscongress Foundation following the 19th World Festival of Youth and Students in 2017.

From the above discussion, reiterating that the theme, “Shared Values: The Foundation of Growth in a Multipolar World”, reflects profound shifts in the framework of international cooperation. Rapidly evolving economic and political processes are transforming the global landscape. The current changes demand broad expert discussion, and SPIEF, as one of the largest business forums, provides a platform for an open dialogue. In addition, it aims to become a space where new ideas are born, shaped into strategy, and transformed into real-world processes that can help shape the future.

The Roscongress Foundation was established in 2007 with the aim of facilitating the development of Russia’s economic potential, promoting its national interests, and strengthening the country’s image. One of the roles of the Foundation is to comprehensively evaluate, analyse, and cover issues on the Russian and global economic agendas. It also offers administrative services, provides promotional support for business projects and attracting investment, helps foster social entrepreneurship and charitable initiatives. The Roscongress Foundation was established in pursuance of a decision by the President of the Russian Federation.

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Trump’s Tariffs, Russia and Africa Trade Cooperation in Emerging Multipolar World

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Trump's Tariffs

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

With geopolitical situation heightening, trade wars are also becoming increasingly prominent. The 47th United States President Donald Trump has introduced trade tariffs, splashed it over the world. China, an Asian trade giant and an emerging economic superpower, has its highest shared.

South Africa, struggling with its fragile foreign alliances, is seriously navigating the new United States economic policy and trade measures, at least to maintain its membership in the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) which is going to expire in September 2025.

It is a well-known fact that AGOA waived duties on most commodities from Africa in order to boost trade in American market. The AGOA also offers many African countries trade preferences in the American market, earning huge revenues for their budgets. Financial remittances back to Africa also play mighty roles across the continent from the United States.

That however, the shifting geopolitical situation combined with Trump’s new trade policies and Russia’s rising interest in Africa, the overarching message for African leaders and business corporate executives is to review the level of degree how to appreciably approach and strengthen trade partnership between Africa and Russia.

The notion of a new global order and frequently phrased multipolar world, indicating the construction of a fairer architecture of interaction, in practical terms, has become like a relic and just as a monumental pillar. Even as we watch the full-blown recalibration of power, the geopolitical reshuffling undoubtedly creates the conditions for new forms of cooperation.

In this current era of contradictions and complexities we are witnessing today, we must rather reshape and redefine rules and regulations to facilitate bilateral and multilateral relations between African countries and Russia, if really Russia seeks to forge post-Soviet strategic economic cooperation with Africa.

In fact, post-Soviet in the sense that trade is not concentrate on state-to-state but also private – including, at least, medium scale businesses. The new policy dealing with realities of the geopolitical world, distinctively different from Soviet-era slogans and rhetorics of ‘international friendship and solidarity’ of those days.

Bridging Africa and Russia, at least in the literal sense of the word, necessitates partial departure from theoretical approach to implementing several bilateral and multilateral decisions, better still agreements reached at previous summits and conferences during the past decade.

Understandably Africa has a stage, Russia termed ‘the struggle against neo-colonial tendencies’ and mounting the metal walls against the ‘scrambling of resources’ across Africa. Some experts argued that Africa, at the current stage, has to develop its regions, modernize most the post-independence-era industries to produce exportable goods, not only for domestic consumption. Now the emphasis is on pushing for prospects of a single continental market, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

This initiative, however, must be strategically and well-coordinated well, and here I suggest integration and cooperation starting at country-wide basis to regional level before it broadly goes to the entire continent, consisting 54 independent states.

These are coordinated together as African Union (AU), which in January 2021 initiated the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). With this trading goals in mind, Africa as a continent has to integrate, promote trade and economic cooperation, engage in investment and development. In that direction, genuine foreign partners are indiscriminately required, foreign investment capital in essential for collaboration as well as their entrepreneurial skills and technical expertise.

For instance, developing relations with Asian giants such China and India, the European Union and the United States. A number of African countries are shifting to the BRICS orbit, in search for feasible alternative opportunities, for the theatrical trade drama. In the Eurasian region and the former Soviet space, Kazakhstan and Russia stand out, as potential partners, for Africa.

Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov has said, at the podium before the staff and students at Moscow State Institute of International Affairs in September, that trade between Russia and Africa would grow further as more and more African partners continued to show interest in having Russians in the economic sectors in Africa. This provides greater competition between the companies from Western countries, China, and Russia. With competition for developing mineral resources in Africa, it is easier and cheaper for African colleagues to choose partners.

As far back in October 2010, Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry posted an official report on its website that traditional products from least developed countries (including Africa) would be exempted from import tariffs. The legislation stipulated that the traditional goods are eligible for preferential customs and tariffs treatment.

Thereafter, Minister Sergey Lavrov has reiterated, in speeches, trade preferences for African exporters, but terribly failed to honour these thunderous promises. Notwithstanding the above granting trade preferences, there prevailing multitude of questions relating to the pathways of improving trade transactions, and removing obstacles including those Soviet-era rules and regulations.

Logistics is another torny hurdle. Further to this, Russian financial institutions can offer credit support that will allow to localize Russian production in Africa’s industrial zones, especially southern and eastern African regions that show some stability and have good investment and business incentives.

In order to operate more effectively, Russians have to risk by investing, recognize the importance of cooperation on key investment issues and to work closely on the challenges and opportunities on the continent. On one hand, analyzing the present landscape of Africa, Russia can export its technology and compete on equal terms with China, India and other prominent players. On the other hand, Russia lacks the competitive advantage in terms of finished industrial (manufactured) products that African consumers obtain from Asian countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Compared to the United States and Europe, Russia did very little after the Cold War and it is doing little even today in Africa. On 27th–28th July 2023, St Petersburg hosted the second Russia-Africa summit. At the plenary session, President Vladimir Putin underscored the fact that there was, prior to the collapse of the Soviet, there were over 330 large infrastructure and industrial facilities in Africa, but most were lost. Regarding trade, Putin, regrettably, noted Russia’s trade turnover with the African countries increased in 2022 and reached almost US$18 billion, (of course, that was 2022).

Arguably, Russia’s economic presence is invisible across Africa. It currently has insignificant trade statistics. Until the end of the first quarter of 2025, Russia still has a little over $20 billion trade volume with Africa. Statistics on Africa’s trade with foreign countries vary largely.

For example, the total United States two-way trade in Africa has actually fallen off in recent years, to about $60 billion, far eclipsed by the European Union with over $240 billion, and China more than $280 billion, according to a website post by the Brookings Institution.

According to the African Development Bank, Africa’s economy is growing faster than those of any other regions. Nearly half of Africa is now classified as middle income countries, the numbers of Africans living below the poverty line fell to 39 percent as compared to 51 percent in 2023, and around 380 million of Africa’s 1.4 billion people are now earning good incomes – rising consumerism – that makes trade profitable.

Nevertheless, there is great potential, as African leaders and entrepreneurial community are turing to Russia for multifaceted cooperation due to the imperialist approach of the United States and its hegemonic stand triggered over the years, and now with Trump new trade tariffs and Washington’s entire African policy.

China has done its part, Russia has to change and adopt new rules and regulations, pragmatic approach devoid of mere frequent rhetorics. It is important discussing these points, and to shamelessly repeat that both Russia and Africa have to make consistent efforts to look for new ways, practical efforts at removing existing obstacles that have impeded trade over the years.

Sprawling from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean, Russia is a major great power and has the potential to become a superpower. Russia can regain part of its Soviet-era economic power and political influence in present-day Africa.

Certainly, the expected superpower status has to be attained by practical multifaceted sustainable development and by maintaining an appreciably positive relations with Africa. We have come a long way, especially after the resonating first summit (2019 and high-praised second summit (2023), several bilateral agreements are yet to be implemented. The forthcoming Russia – Africa Partnership summit is slated for 2026, inside Africa and preferably in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Kestér Kenn Klomegâh is a frequent and passionate contributor. During his professional career as a researcher specialising in Russia-Africa policy, which spans nearly two decades, he has been detained and questioned several times by Russian federal security services for reporting facts. Most of his well-resourced articles are reprinted in a number of reputable foreign media.

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